Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor

Newspoll matches Galaxy in the scale of the disaster for the Coalition, and exceeds anything seen previously with respect to Tony Abbott’s personal ratings.

The eagerly awaited pre-spill Newspoll concurs with Galaxy in having Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43, from primary votes of 35% for the Coalition, 41% for Labor and 12% for the Greens. The Coalition result is down three points on the last Newspoll of December 12-14, and one point lower than Galaxy; Labor’s is up two, and two points lower than Galaxy; and the Greens’ is steady, and one point higher than Galaxy. The previous Newspoll result was 54-46 on two-party preferred. Phillip Hudson’s paywalled report on the Newspoll result in The Australian can be read here; the tables are featured on The Australian’s website here.

Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are 24% satisfied and 68% dissatisfied, for a net satisfaction rating of minus 44%. In a history going back to 1985, the only occasions when Newspoll produced a worse result for a Prime Minister were when Julia Gillard recorded minus 45% in the poll of September 2-4, 2011, and in four polls under Paul Keating from August to October in 1993. Alexander Downer had two worse results as Opposition Leader near the end of his tenure in December 1994, and Andrew Peacock matched it in a poll conducted during the 1990 election campaign. Bill Shorten leads Abbott as preferred prime minister by 48-30, up from 44-37 last time, a result surpassed only by a 20% lead for Alexander Downer over Paul Keating during the former’s short-lived honeymoon period in July 1994. Shorten is up five on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 40%.

Head-to-head questions on the Liberal leadership find Malcolm Turnbull favoured over Abbott by 64-25 and Julie Bishop favoured 59-27, while Turnbull is favoured over Bishop by 49-38. The poll was conducted from Friday to today from a sample of 1178.

UPDATE: To follow today’s action as it unfolds, you could do quite a lot worse than to tune in to Crikey’s Liberal leadership spill live blog.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,041 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor”

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  2. Abbott can’t talk about the present, people think he stinks. Newspoll is proof. even 39 members of his backbench think he stinks.

    Tories will still be going on about pink batts and school halls in 2050, just as they occasionally bring up Whitlam

  4. BB

    Groundhog Day was about
    1. an arseh&le
    2. who then realised he was an arseh&le and
    3. then changing himself into a genuine nicer person.

    Abbotts Groundhog day starts and finishes with point 1.

  7. The LNP MP’s are in complete denial regarding the very many lies and mistakes that have happened since the 2013 election.

    TBA – their major mouthpiece on PB is demonstrating the same denial as he did with the Queensland election.

    You know TBA you can still come to Hervey Bay for the first of your Econ. 1 lessons. But please talk to the suffering small business people on the way here because Abbott is right on the nose with so many!

  14. TBA @ 766

    Aren’t facts a wonderful thing?

    Your logic may well be correct, if it is it just proves Tony was too gutless to clear up the mess ( unlike Julia ). Tony should have just called for a vote of support & bypassed the spill… now we can wait till after NSW election so they can drag him kicking & screaming to the chopping block.

  17. That was a very impressive QT peformance by Bill. And didn’t Abbott hate having his own medicine tossed back at him!

    To quote meoldema, “That took the smile off his face.”

  21. Shorten was very good. He did even more damage to Turnbull than to Abbott (the limbless torso fighting in the wood) as there is not much more that can be done.

    Katherine Murphy still try to peddle the myth that Shorten is afraid of Turnbull. Go figure. Derrr.

  26. Diog @ 861

    I certainly would not advocate the army in the seige situation. Way too machismo and trigger happy and wannabee warriors for my liking and would set a very dangerous precedent for future events.

  28. sohar@871

    Shorten was very good. He did even more damage to Turnbull than to Abbott (the limbless torso fighting in the wood) as there is not much more that can be done.

    Katherine Murphy still try to peddle the myth that Shorten is afraid of Turnbull. Go figure. Derrr.

    The anti-Turnbull stuff would have been a shot at Abbott. We’re concentrating fire on the new threat whilst HMS Abbott is dead in the water and listing hard starboard.

  30. The tories did Labor a huge favour today when they retained abbott.

    I thought they were smarter, but there you go – a few magical words from abbott and everything is okie dokie.

    Looks like abbott etc basically have to bring down, sell and take responsibility for the next budget as well as get a big improvement in the polls otherwise they go to the woodshed.

    How low can they go in polling ?

  33. Diogenes@866

    I’m not advocating the police or the army. The poor lady is obviously travelling very badly.

    What has excited my curiosity is this. If people could manage to escape from the cafe, why couldn’t a couple of police get in through the exits used and deal with the gunman?

    I prefer a bit of a stealth approach to a full-on frontal assault which was unlikely to end well.

    But even before that option arose, why were none of the offers of reputable members of the Islamic community to assist not taken up? And don’t give me bs about them not being trained negotiators. Clearly such people didn’t help much.

  39. [edi-mahin
    Have a Bex and a good lie down.]

    Good advice. Abbott is PM, and his leadership woes are all behind him. There is dancing in the streets. Happy days are here again.

  40. Steven Grant Haby@876

    Diog @ 861

    I certainly would not advocate the army in the seige situation. Way too machismo and trigger happy and wannabee warriors for my liking and would set a very dangerous precedent for future events.

    Hostage situations are said to be a SAS speciality ?

    Also the Commando Special Forces Battalion is based just outside Sydney – they do very regular low level helicopter training approaches up the western harbour and into the city at night and during the day.

    But no doubt it was considered the Police had the necessary expertise etc.

  42. “@SenatorWong: Cormann refuses to confirm Edward’s claim there will be an open tender for Australia’s new subs. Someone is not telling the truth. #senateqt”

  43. William,
    Do you know if the Morgan is a post non-spill snapshot? I imagine that Essential is so outdated as to be totally irrelevant on release. Seven hours is a long time in politics these days.

  44. @ 885

    He’s like a band from the ’80s doing a reunion tour.

    When the crowd starts to turn on you for playing the new stuff, just dig up the hits from your glory days.

    They may be a bit stale and irrelevant, but hopefully they will remind everyone that you were once someone famous and influential, not just a wasted wreck who burnt out in an inferno of excess and self-indulgence.

  47. I give Shorten a pass mark for his speech, it had some good points, but he had so much good material to choose from. However the speech lacked focus with its attacks on Malcolm Turnbull and contained nothing spectacular. He should have been able to do better.

  48. [Pink batts and school halls? I bet 61 Liberal MPs are feeling pretty bloody stupid right about now.]

    I’ll be happy if just a dozen of them are 😉

  50. During reply to Shorten’s motion, Abbott accused Shorten of being racist because he dare raise the issue of submarines not being built in Australia and questioning 457 visas. Go figure

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