A thread for discussion of a South Australian state by-election that has sadly fallen off my radar, thanks to the distraction of Queensland.
A South Australian state by-election will be held tomorrow in the electorate of Davenport, to be vacated by Liberal veteran Iain Evans. I would love to be able to tell you more about it, but you know how it is. My review of the electorate from before last year’s election can be read here. Here is a thread for those wishing to discuss the matter.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
Goodnight Carey – better swing in Davenport than my predicted 4%. Hope you get better soon – buy tomorrow’s Murdoch papers and enjoy!
Haha Rocket
Thanks for the save! 🙂
6% swing is a very respectable result for Labor – getting a safe Liberal seat down to 2% is not to be sneezed at.
Very solid, and reflects the hard campaign by Labor even in what they must have known would likely be a losing cause.
Looks like I was right at comment #6 – a 6% swing to ALP.
Good pick Matt. And given that I think the long term average State and Federal swing in a by-election is 5.5% against the Government, that is pretty impressive.
Davenport would vote for Ivan Milat as long he stood for the Liberal Party.
Thanks, RR. And if the Liberals had run Ivan Milat, they may have lost – I believe the new margin’s 2%?
Matt
That surprises me, I thought they would rather no member than a an ALP one.
[Looks like I was right at comment #6 – a 6% swing to ALP.]
Good call!
And it is consistent with a statewide swing from 47-53 in March to the current statewide polling that reverses that. There are 5 seats that would be lost under that swing – including that of Steven Marshall.
The Liberals can only be thankful for two things:
1. They won;
2. The ALP messed up with those inaccurate how to vote cards costing them how many votes on the day?
If the ALP had won the Libs may well have won a Court of Disputed Returns case due to the false information on the cards, but if they had just handed out a card all day without that, I wonder how close they could have come…
And before I hear someone whining on the Libs pretending to be someone else handing out cards about the Greens, this is legal.
It has been done in the past by the Libs, ALP and even some Independents where they have tried to garner Green or Independent preferences.
They were not pretending to be someone else’s how to vote cards (that is illegal, after the 2010 election) – but were advising people on how to vote. Whether you agree or not with the contents is another matter of course.
Finally, apart from the how to vote card stuff up, the ALP looked very relaxed, they had nothing to lose and it was the Liberals looking very scared all day.
As has been stated before, for a 4th term government who are not doing a great job (I know that is my opinion with which some here may not agree) can gain a 6% swing to it, says a lot of very damning things about the Liberals.
The ALP have every right to laugh at them, and the Liberals should be ashamed.