Just a few things to run by you, pending a more complete review of the situation tomorrow, together with late polling of which there will presumably be a good deal.
Essential Research released a poll compiled from its regular weekly surveying over the past three weekends. The sample is a very modest 566, and the result not terribly timely, but let it be noted nonetheless that the poll has it at 50-50, with primary votes of 39% for the Liberal National Party, 38% for Labor, 7% for the Greens and 5% for Palmer United.
I’ve finally gotten around to adding campaign updates to my election guide, so you can now find individual electorate entries appended with poll results and accounts of incidents during the campaign period where applicable.
The one campaign update that won’t sound familiar to followers of my blog posts relates to the electorate of Mackay, and it reads thus: There has been widespread talk that Labor’s hold on the seat is under serious threat from independent candidate Julie Boyd, explaining Annastacia Palaszczuk’s decision to visit the electorate the Tuesday before polling day. Boyd served as mayor from 1997 to 2008 and made three bids for LNP preselection federally before quitting the party, complaining she had been told she had not made enough tea and bickies to win support.
For more on Mackay and other independent prospects, I had a good deal to say in a paywalled piece for Crikey yesterday.
UPDATE: The Gold Coast Bulletin reports that a ReachTEL poll of 1115 voters on the Gold Coast, conducted at an unspecified time this week, had the LNP on 48.3% and Labor on 29.4%, compared with 58.3% and 23.7% at the 2012 election. The paper also reports that internal polling by both Labor and Palmer United suggest Albert, with a margin of 11.9%, is in play, and that Labor is hopeful of a win in Broadwater, margin 11.3%.
131 comments on “Queensland election minus one day”
Don’t know if betting agencies get inside information on polling however both Sportsbet and SportingBet have drifted from $6 to $7 in the last hour for Labor. Maybe they are just drumming up business.
Sportsbet have the LNP in from $1.10 to $1.08 and ALP out to $7.00 in their betting.
Do they have early info on polling to be released tonight?
Or is it due to large amounts of bets on LNP by confidant supporters?
To me, a majority of 5 vs a majority of 50 makes no difference and allows the government to go ahead do things without a check and balance.
This is an issue that Queensland have because of the lack of an upper house. The only other similar house in Australia is that of NT, I believe.
A minority government is the only way forward to keep the government in check.
[A minority government is the only way forward to keep the government in check.]
Most honest competent governments are kept in check by the electoral cycle.
I see the bookies have the LNP most likely to lose 24 seats (73 to 49). Their “line” on LNP v ALP in seats is 11, which would mean Labor on 38 with two “others”.
Next LNP leader – Tim Nicholls $1-45, Fiona Simpson $3-75, Springborg $7-50, Langbroek $11, Emerson $12, Walker $14, Seeney $16.
With the likely makeup of the LNP Members post-election, I just can’t see Nicholls getting up, and would be surprised with Simpson. I’m sticking with the “Borg” to finally become Premier!
Totally agree Raaraa.
The anticipated 2 KAP (Dalrymple & Mt Isa) and the likely 2 independents (Maryborough & Nicklin) are all against Asset sell off.
Of course for them to have the Balance of power requires the ALP to reclaim 32 seats giving them 41 and the LNP 44. More independents, KAP or PUP would confuse the issue no end. Tonight’s polls may give an early indication.
One from yesterday
[Redcliffe the forgotten seat in the Queensland Election, while nearby Murrumba splashed with cash
January 29, 2015 1:00AM
Redcliffe & Bayside Herald
IF POLITICAL promises equate to attention, then Redcliffe appears to be one of the forgotten seats of the 2015 State Election.
Looking likely to remain in the hands of Sitting Labor Member Yvette D’ath according to current polling, the seat has received comparatively little attention from either major party.
Compared to Murrumba, which has been promised $140 million from the Newman Government, Redcliffe has been promised just $700,000 towards upgrades for the PCYC by the LNP’s Kerri-Anne Dooley.
Labor’s Yvette D’Ath said the party had so far promised 80 new nursing positions in Metro North Health as part of Labor’s $110 million promise to employ 400 new nurses across the state.
“We’ve also promised at least one additional specialist teacher each for Clontarf Beach State High School and Redcliffe State High School and an additional teacher for Clontarf Beach State School,” she said.
D’Ath also promised an additional guidance officer in 2016 for Clontarf Beach State High School. Ms Dooley said the $700,000 for the PCYC was contingent on her winning the seat.]
The betting markets are kind of odd. They’re suggesting a pretty tight race. But of course, the odds of the LNP holding on vs the ALP picking up enough to win outright would be better.
But a hung Parliament have both come in, in the last 5 minutes, to 1.20 from 1.45 and 4.00 to 4.50.
But Ashgrove has moved slightly further away from Newman.
Sorry – 4.50 to 4.00
and I see they are favouring 2 x KAP and no others
So that bookie “prediction” is
Take a look at Nicklin and Maryborough. Independents are both hot favorites!
Don’t pay much attention to the exotic betting markets. They are max win of a few hundred bucks. They could be ‘wrong’ for weeks and nobody would care.
The main market however, is a good reflection of punter sentiment. My company are holding a few hundred thousand. The general approach, as with all sports, is to adjust price sufficiently so that the favourite is a loser for the company and the outsider is a huge winner.
[Most honest competent governments are kept in check by the electoral cycle.]
I understand what you mean here, but through a combination of single house and OPV, there’s still a chance that the LNP will maintain a slim majority into the next electoral cycle.
The only hope there is that a change of leadership might chance the path that Queensland is going down at the moment.
@113, that’s my prediction right now.
I pencilled for a bookie for a few years argyface and you are quite right. He loved the fav getting beaten. Part of my job was to keep him informed how much he “stood to lose” if the fav won.
Luckily favs only win 1 in 3 races!
I’m not suggesting 1 in 3 favs will win in the election!
Almost all will but there always seem to be few surprises.
I’ve taken one bet so far – ALP to get 39 to 39.9 % at $11.00.
Here’s hoping. That’s my best value bet!
@ausdavo Yep, and you can imagine how well it worked for us in South Australia last year. Biggest result in political betting history in this country, yet many will tell you the bookies ‘got it wrong’
[The only hope there is that a change of leadership might chance the path that Queensland is going down at the moment.]
But all Qld voters know what they are electing if they vote LNP – Fitzgerald was very explicit and clearly correct. If you put a vote in qld for the LNP you are knowingly giving a green light to corruption. whether or not anyone in the new LNP govt post election would actually be corrupt we won’t know for a long time but anyone stupid enough to vote for them shouldn’t complain if it occurs.
I’ve still seen odds as high as $1.13 for the LNP today, so there must still be a bit of money for Labor speculating around.
Haven’t caught up with anyone in Qld Labor yet, will sniff the turf a little later tonight. My impression is that the boots on the ground are proud of the campaign but not expecting a miracle.
@PSyvret: Some truly fascinating #qldvotes polling from the ever reliable Galaxy in tomorrow’s @couriermail #buythepaper
I’ve done a lot of election betting over the years and I wouldn’t read anything much into the betting markets. There are often limits on what they will let you bet, sometimes quite low. On some occasions they will limit the bet, reduce the odds and let you have another go on the reduced odds. On others they will just limit what you can bet, full stop and leave the odds the same. Its quite arbitrary.
LNP just in front – Ch7 news
Reachtel 2pp 52-48 to LNP
Better campaigner Anna P 55.2 to Newman 44.8
52 48 to LNP
[I’ve done a lot of election betting over the years and I wouldn’t read anything much into the betting markets. There are often limits on what they will let you bet, sometimes quite low. On some occasions they will limit the bet, reduce the odds and let you have another go on the reduced odds. On others they will just limit what you can bet, full stop and leave the odds the same. Its quite arbitrary.]
Ah so even when on the numbers you see between the houses creates opportunity you might find you couldn’t place the bets you need to take full advantage. Interesting.
But is the TPP based on last election preference distribution ?
If it is and the prefs go much more strongly to ALP it can make 1 to 2% difference on what is stated.
Election prediction time
– The LNP to be returned
– LNP to lose pretty much every seat under 10% (potentially up to 27 seats)but I think the ALP will gain between 20-25 seats
– Kate Jones to win Ashgrove easily
– LNP to blame Tone and unions
The Reachtel 2pp presumes preference flows (approx) from greens at 40% ALP, 10% LNP, 50% exhaust and Other 30% LNP, 20% ALP and 50% exhaust.
With the whole ‘LNP Last’ campaign, it is not difficult to see Greens at 60% ALP, 10% LNP, 30% exhaust and Other 30% LNP, 30% ALP and 40% exhaust.
The 2PP on this is … 50:50. Plus, with huge numbers of LNP voters in safe electorates, you can see ALP getting the numbers. But, it is just hard to fathom ALP gaining 36 seats. No matter how generous you are to ALP, it is difficult to see it happen without them picking up seats like Mount Ommaney and Everton which I think is a bit of a stretch.
Tomorrow night will be fascinating. Some massive surprises and lots of seats changing hands.
There are sound reasons for the bookies’ odds often proving a more accurate predictor. Senior members and their associates in all Parties have access to private Party polling which can be far more relevant than whatever polls are published in the media.
This enables them to place shrewd bets either for OR against their own and other candidates.