Just a few things to run by you, pending a more complete review of the situation tomorrow, together with late polling of which there will presumably be a good deal.
• Essential Research released a poll compiled from its regular weekly surveying over the past three weekends. The sample is a very modest 566, and the result not terribly timely, but let it be noted nonetheless that the poll has it at 50-50, with primary votes of 39% for the Liberal National Party, 38% for Labor, 7% for the Greens and 5% for Palmer United.
• I’ve finally gotten around to adding campaign updates to my election guide, so you can now find individual electorate entries appended with poll results and accounts of incidents during the campaign period where applicable.
• The one campaign update that won’t sound familiar to followers of my blog posts relates to the electorate of Mackay, and it reads thus: “There has been widespread talk that Labor’s hold on the seat is under serious threat from independent candidate Julie Boyd, explaining Annastacia Palaszczuk’s decision to visit the electorate the Tuesday before polling day. Boyd served as mayor from 1997 to 2008 and made three bids for LNP preselection federally before quitting the party, complaining she had been told she had ‘not made enough tea and bickies’ to win support.”
• For more on Mackay and other independent prospects, I had a good deal to say in a paywalled piece for Crikey yesterday.
UPDATE: The Gold Coast Bulletin reports that a ReachTEL poll of 1115 voters on the Gold Coast, conducted at an unspecified time this week, had the LNP on 48.3% and Labor on 29.4%, compared with 58.3% and 23.7% at the 2012 election. The paper also reports that internal polling by both Labor and Palmer United suggest Albert, with a margin of 11.9%, is “in play”, and that Labor is “hopeful of a win” in Broadwater, margin 11.3%.
I said yesterday it is fair to ask the question, what happens? If he does lose the LNP will elect another leader to replace him. Nothing too difficult about that.
But I was referring to all this hype of him remaining premier if he loses his seat. It’s just noise.
[I can’t find any further info on this poll by Essential, which is different from the one William mentions above:]
The paper is mistaken. The only Essential Research result is the 50-50 one.
William – that is pretty poor, even by the APN Regional News Network standard.
I first saw it commented on early this morning in comments on a mainstream paper then someone alerted me to it in the Sunshine Coast Daily. And it is all still there.
[51
davidwh
Posted Friday, January 30, 2015 at 2:12 pm | PERMALINK
I said yesterday it is fair to ask the question, what happens? If he does lose the LNP will elect another leader to replace him. Nothing too difficult about that.
But I was referring to all this hype of him remaining premier if he loses his seat. It’s just noise.]
Absent an indication from the LNP what it will do it is very fair noise indeed. If they are fit to win back government they’d have a plan. It is consistent with their dodgy Joh style govt that they aren’t being honest with Queenslanders.
Why anyone would vote for them is beyond me.
these “debates” are pretty tame affairs these days, but at least they have had the chance to ask each other questions, and also have questions from the media (instead of the “undecided” voters as chosen by Sky News/Roy Morgan)
Time to de-rust yourself from the LNP davidwh.
Start up a Country Alliance QLD branch?
The LNP have a plan. It’s to win government and Ashgrove. They are entitled to stick to that plan until the people require them to alter the plan. It’s not all that hard to accept once the politics is taken out of it.
They can’t commit to an alternate plan until the election is over and the LNP MP’s elected choose an alternative if Newman fails to win his seat or even if the MP’s decide they no longer support an elected Newman.
As I said yesterday the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd periods showed us clearly that the party gets to chose the leader not the people. At this time the party has chosen Newman.
It shouldn’t be too hard to understand.
WWP – if Newman loses Ashgrove but the LNP survive, Labor will likely win a swathe of seats in Brisbane. This will drastically tip the balance of power in the LNP in favour of the “N” component. So the next Premier is a function of who is left in Parliament, and if the LNP have only say 50 seats they will be voting Springborg I think.
I’m too old to get that involved in politics Simon even if I had some inclination to do so.
Interesting debate between the leaders, caught the tail end of it.
Annastacia came across quite well, measure and a little low key which may be what QLD’ers are looking for.
Tomorrow will be very interesting, the ALP may surprise a few people.
Oh and Campbell Newman has a very smackable head. There is something about him that just riles me.
[Oh and Campbell Newman has a very smackable head. There is something about him that just riles me.]
He’s a Liberal 🙂
“”I’m too old to get that involved in politics Simon even if I had some inclination to do so.””
I’ve noticed in the 65+ range, people have difficulty with change, they appear to be frightened of change and therefor stick with things they have done in the past.
Change happens all the time, to ignore is stupid!.
[The LNP have a plan. It’s to win government and Ashgrove. They are entitled to stick to that plan until the people require them to alter the plan]
Given that the chance of the LNP retaining government and losing Ashgrove is not unthinkable it’s fair enough to expect the party to have some sort of plan about what they’ll do if that happens. Frankly I’d be surprised if they hadn’t thought about it.
Thank heavens I am not 65+ yet 🙂
Well their plan would be to hold a meeting of elected MP’s and elect a new leader. Trouble is people want them to pre-determine outcomes out of their control and elect an alternative before the event. Assuming they did there is no guarantee the leader selected by the 73 would be the same person that the expected reduced numbers would be happy with.
Anyone with an insight on when the latest polls will be made public?
Davidwh, then you are not old enough to at least goad others into starting one up.
WTR, I understood it would be TV evening news time.
ReachTel 6pm tonight on Ch7. Both Galaxy and NewsPoll should be tonight at some time. Generally Galaxy manages to get released earlier than NewsPoll.
Interesting talk re Gold Coast seats.
Four were previously held by the ALP leading into the 2012 election & Gaven just held by LNP.
2009 2012 SWING 2015 ALP require
Albert 6.5% 18.4% 11.9%
Burleigh 4.9%, 15.9% 11.0%
Southport 3.5% 18.2% 14.7%
Broadwater 2.0% 13.3% 11.3%
Gaven was LNP by 0.7%. 18.4% 19.1%
Greens are preferencing the ALP in all, Fam First LNP in all, PUP none, One Nation none.
In Gaven where Douglas could take a lot of LNP 1st prefs, he and the IND Ivory and ALP are exchanging prefs. This is why the 19.1% win (by Douglas LNP) may make the LNP more vulnerable (a bit like Prahran in Victoria).
My tip ALP to win 2 Gold Coast seats from the above.
[ Oh and Campbell Newman has a very smackable head. There is something about him that just riles me. ]
backpfeifengesicht
[ 1934pc
Posted Friday, January 30, 2015 at 2:58 pm | Permalink
“”I’m too old to get that involved in politics Simon even if I had some inclination to do so.””
I’ve noticed in the 65+ range, people have difficulty with change, they appear to be frightened of change and therefor stick with things they have done in the past.
Change happens all the time, to ignore is stupid!. ]
It’s Never Too Late And You’re Never Too Old: 50 People Who Found Success After 50 by Vic Johnson
[The LNP have a plan. It’s to win government and Ashgrove.]
Are you sure that this is their plan? They seem to have been trying to lose government for the last couple of years.
@57 it’s one thing to have a plan, it’s another to pretend that’s the only possible outcome. It’s self evident that the LNP could get back in without ashgrove, but they refuse to even admit that it’s a possibility.
How hard is it for Newman to say “yes that could happen, in which case the leadership would be up to the incoming party room”?
areaman,
You’re quite right but to say “yes that could happen, in which case the leadership would be up to the incoming party room”?
requires one to be an open and honest person when dealing with the press and the public. It’s a rare trait in politicians of all persuasions.
Newman has spent nearly 3 years showing he hasn’t a clue!
[davidwh
Posted Friday, January 30, 2015 at 3:35 pm | PERMALINK
ReachTel 6pm tonight on Ch7. Both Galaxy and NewsPoll should be tonight at some time. Generally Galaxy manages to get released earlier than NewsPoll.]
Can you please let us southerners know the Reachtel result? It’s unlikely to be on Ch 7 in other State capitals early in the bulletin.
If Newman forms a Government, I shall be sanguine and most Crikey posters will be upset and in many cases unable to do much more than hurl expletives.
If Labor forms a Government, I shall be sanguine and most Crikey posters will be deliriously happy, and praising the voters who did what was ‘expected’ of them.
Either way, I shall remain interested in analysing socio-political issues, and the usual suspects will remain wedded to their ‘sacred’ causes.
citizen no doubt someone will post it here as soon as it is released. Often I think we manage to beat Ch7.
A few thoughts for my fellow psephologists…
(1) When Queensland swings, it really swings. It really swung in 2012. This time there is probably two factors at play: (a) a ‘natural’ correction back to give Labor its core base and (b) a protest vote on top of that. What this means is Labor very strongly reclaims its heartland with big swings and perhaps line-balls some of the more traditionally swinging type seats, but will this transfer to a win?
(2) The swing will probably be patchy and I think this is played out in the Leaders’ movements. Newman barely left Brisbane/SE corner in the first couple of weeks – I think they call that sand bagging. Palasczcuk barely set foot in Brisbane/SE corner in the first couple weeks, preferring instead to campaign in seats in provincial areas with 11-16% margins. My take is Labor feel confident in the SE and see the potential to harness dissatisfaction in the regions to snare a swag of provincial/coastal seats.
(3) A hung parliament is possible. Newman’s scare campaign against this tells me their polling isn’t showing a outright ALP victory but the LNP may lose enough seats to lose majority government.
(4) If Newman is returned, but the LNP loses heavily his leadership will be terminal. They may indulge him for a while, but his authority in the party room will be worth nothing and in time he’ll be rolled for someone deemed more able to deliver a third term.
Norman H
When you say “sanguine”, do you refer to the noun or the adjective?
Speaking of which, SMH editorial telling QLD’ers to vote for Newman. Isnt that like waving a maroon flag at a bull?
Sanguine is my least favourite word in the world.
You can never tell what they mean. About three quarters of people use sanguine to mean agitated, one quarter use sanguine to mean calm.
I use sanguine to mean “red”.
RA
yes. I feel all recumbent and tranquil about it. Almost aqua in colour. Maybe a teal.
Simon
Speaking of which, SMH editorial telling QLD’ers to vote for Newman.
You would have to expect that from Fairfax management …. have to maintain face in the light of being idiot conservative boosters since Tony was elected leader of the opposition.
SMH is desperately attempting to outdo the Tele when it comes to useless tits & bums articles
[ Assuming they did there is no guarantee the leader selected by the 73 would be the same person that the expected reduced numbers would be happy with. ]
All entirely reasonable and logical. You cant expect the press chooks to be happy with that, or the ALP not to play on it for as much as its worth though. 🙂
sceptic,
I was distraught when i moved to Adelaide (way back) and couldnt get my weekend SMH fix. But seems I am no longer missing anything.
RA @80
I order it at Tapas restaurants.
WTR
I have had a few nights on it myself – down around Liverpool and George in Sydney.
Messy.
citizen 75
I have been able to get it streaming via
https://au.news.yahoo.com/video/watch/17174742/7news-live-brisbane/
It says (now)
The video you are trying to watch is currently unavailable.
Please check back soon.
right up until 6pm (ie 7pm in NSW/Vic/Tas)
The editorial in today’s FR sums up perfectly what tomorrow’s election should be about – “One way forward for Queensland”. It explains why I will be supporting the LNP despite the obvious shortcomings the current government has displayed over the last three years.
The risks are too great yet to support an opposition we rejected so clearly three years ago. Labor needs another term on opposition to properly re-build and the LNP deserves a further term to fully implement the reforms commenced in their first term.
I support the return of an LNP government but with a much reduced majority. The real problem with 2012 was the size of the majority QLD’ers gave the LNP. The LNP did not respect the majority and deserve to be punished for that.
That is pretty well how I see the situation and the rest is up to the voters.
[Well their plan would be to hold a meeting of elected MP’s and elect a new leader. ]
Well they should have said that!
[The risks are too great yet to support an opposition we rejected so clearly three years ago.]
The risks are too great to carry on supporting such a terrible government with a lack of respect for democratic and legal institutions in my opinion. But to each their own.
[
I support the return of an LNP government but with a much reduced majority. The real problem with 2012 was the size of the majority QLD’ers gave the LNP. The LNP did not respect the majority and deserve to be punished for that.
That is pretty well how I see the situation and the rest is up to the voters.]
‘Not respect the majority’ is a pretty kind way of describing their atrocious behaviour. I think fitzgeralds lengthy description was a lot more accurate.
davidwh
any government that wantonly creates an environment conducive of corrupt behaviour deserves short shrift regardless of the readiness of the other mob.
Not that I am accusing anyone or any body of corruption.
davidwh
“I support the return of an LNP government but with a much reduced majority. The real problem with 2012 was the size of the majority QLD’ers gave the LNP. The LNP did not respect the majority and deserve to be punished for that.”
What a lot of meaningless drivel.. What does respect the majority mean?
They had a majority and used it to do what they wanted.
Only way for democracy to be respected is to have a hung parliament & let all decisions be argued & made on the floor of the house, anything else is an abuse of the majority.
It is frustrating Rocket knowing the result is there but we can see it 🙂
Well hats off to you Norman. The sodden ecstacies of rectitude.
Simon Katich@86
Yes, can leave one feeling not so sanguine
The LNP are entirely unfit to run QLD. They are going to lease assets for 100 years and piss the money down the toilet like Newman did with his useless tunnels in Brisbane when he was Lord Wanker. They have a financial plan that does not consider the lost revenue from the leased assets over the next 100 years ( or 12 months even).
Labor had 2 of the largest floods in Qld history to manage and guess what they had to borrow and sell assets to rebuild infrastructure destroyed so the state could even keep running at some level.
The return of the cronies ridden LNP who throw billions of Qld tax money at mining infrastructure in the middle of nowhere will be a travesty.
davidwh
Certainly a massive majority (especially with only one House) is a problem. You can almost guarantee a few MPs leaving for other parties, as you can also guarantee a few “strange” members who were not part of the “plan” by head office, but won seats with 15-20% margins.
I still expect the LNP to get about 50 seats. I can’t fathom how many if any Ind/KAP/PUP members there will be – maybe 3 or 4. So Labor in the mid 30s. And Newman to lose and not have a by-election (which anywhere in Brisbane he might well lose anyway)
Rocket Rocket@87
Ugh. We have to wait an extra hour!! Is this some Qld passive-aggrevisive payback over daylight savings.
Interesting that Palasczcuk fluffs an early morning question in innocuous dial in quiz and gets pilloried all over and becomes front page anti ALP news in the pro LNP Courier Mail. Treasurer and quite possibly Premier next week Tim Nichols fluffs answer about Unemployment rate in a bona fide interview and the silence is deafening.