ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor in Ashgrove

A new poll finds Campbell Newman in desperate straits in the race for his seat of Ashgrove.

Courtesy of the Seven Network, ReachTEL offers what is perhaps a note of insight into the tone of panic that has been emerging lately from the Campbell Newman campaign, with no sign of the late-campaign surge that powered him to victory in Ashgrove in 2012. Labor’s lead has in fact increased from 53-47 in the January 13 poll to a formidable 54-46, from primary votes of 46.5% from Labor’s Kate Jones (down 1.1%), 42.3% for Newman (down 1.4%) and 8.2% for the Greens, up a solid 2.8%. The poll was conducted yesterday by automated phone polling from a sample of 861; full results here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

303 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor in Ashgrove”

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  1. ESJ abused me with the comment “yellow” (which I’ve never been).

    I think ESJ may be looking a bit jaundiced now and maybe even feeling a tad sick!

    Remember your bias will keep you going ESJ.

  2. Some of the LNP supporters thought that a desire to have the Premier as local member would save Ashgrove for Newman, especially as the LNP looked safe to form Government.
    I wonder if the reverse will apply: Qlders swinging to Labor rather than electing the LNP with a TBA Premier?
    Next Statewide poll will be interesting…

  3. IN 2012 Newman led Jones by 4400 first pref. votes (15.2% lead).
    Despite the swing against ALP the preferences of Greens, KAP, One Nation & Ind were 1809 to ALP and 605 to LNP with 928 exhausted leaving Newman the winner by 5.7%.

    A repeat of such preference figures would spell the end of Newman.
    Now Reachtel has Jones 4.2% ahead of Newman before preferences.

  4. It’s ironic when you consider that one of the reasons the Liberal National Party was formed was to resolve the uncertainty over who would be Premier in a conservative government.

  5. This will drive the LNP campaign off-track. Try talking about policies now when all the questions will be ‘who is going to lead the LNP when Campbell loses?’.

  6. ratsak @4:

    Not words one normally associates with the ALP, are they? But true in this instance.

    With Can-do Campbell a goner, who will be the next LNP Premier? Seeney? Springborg?

  7. [“I wonder if the reverse will apply: Qlders swinging to Labor rather than electing the LNP with a TBA Premier?”]

    No… we’ve seen Anna 2 and we don’t like what we see.

    The surprise Premier will still be a better option.

  8. Good ole TBA – no fact just opinion.

    Worse he pins us all with “and we don’t like what we see” when he should qualify it by saying “(he) don’t like what (he) sees”.

    I would say most Queenslanders don’t agree with you TBA, so stop putting your words in our mouths!

  9. Saturday night will be very interesting after all. Great work Annastacia. I notice she is adopting the swagger and confidence of a Premier(ess?) elect. Anna knocking out Can Do is almost as exciting as Ruddy knocking Howard out of his seat in the 2007 Federal.
    Not there yet but has Can do got still more than the $18 million already promised to throw at Ashgrove? I notice Moggill has been promised a paltry 1.5 mill as a comparison. I guess if he keeps selling stuff then he can just keep on spending up .. It’s not like we have any budget issues in Qld to worry about.

  10. Further to the HTV discussion from a few nights ago – had a look at Labor’s, glad to see they’re recommending full preferences in almost every seat! Such a change from the Just Vote 1 days. The only exceptions are One Nation (never dignified with a number, and good for Labor), a few random no-hoper indies, and, for some reason, Gladstone and Mackay (which are JV1). The registered HTV also has a whole heap of options saying “Thinking of voting Independent/Katter/Green? Vote 2 Labor”, which is smart.

    The Katter strategy seems to be 1-KAP, 2-Family First, exhaust. Probably a deal. Peter Wellington is exhausting (not that that will matter). Alex Douglas is directing to Labor, which might make Gaven interesting (and he puts Palmer dead last, which is amusing). Carl Judge doesn’t seem to have registered an HTV at the moment.

  11. GG – when living in Queensland I saw Goss win his second term (and also missed Kennett winning) which was nice. Looks like Saturday night could be very interesting. I rarely drink but may make an exception if that Ashgrove polling holds true.

  12. tba at it again;

    “But we don’t want Anna 2?”

    Don’t you have the honesty in you to say – “I don’t want Anna ?”

    I can just imagine you crying your eyes out Saturday night but notice – that’s “my” clearly stated opinion.

  13. Interesting.
    The CM link had a survey to see which party I preferred.
    Not real relevant for me cos I’m from SA but I thought I’d give it a whirl.
    It asked me questions and I “disagreed” with most, not all but most.
    And from that it assigned me to a party.
    Seems one mob are the ‘agree’ and the other mob are the ‘disagree’.

  14. I have to have a giggle at ausdavo, labors gone, labors gonna win, he really doesn’t know if he’s Arthur or Martha. Wouldn’t want him with you in a fight would you ?

  15. Three days out and this poll is clearly beyond MOE on a robust sample size. Fun times in the LNP bunker! Do you obey orders from Campbell or Seeney or Borg?

    Kudos to the voters of Ashgrove for not being bought off by a bunch of bribe offers dipped in pork, or bullied by a nasty little man facing in the near future the unemployment he forced on so many innocent others.

  16. [“ESJ,

    Campbell’s well and truly forked!”]

    Campbell Newman heading toward a loss in seat of Ashgrove while LNP wins government, according to new poll

    CAMPBELL Newman is set to lose in his bid to win the seat of Ashgrove – plunging Queensland politics into unprecedented territory.

    An exclusive Galaxy Poll conducted for The Courier-Mail reveals Labor incumbent Kate Jones has broken away from Mr Newman in the must-win seat just two weeks out from the election.

    She now has a three point lead in the two-party preferred race.

    The most likely result is that the LNP will claim an overwhelming win yet their leader won’t join them in the new Parliament.


    Ohhh wait… wait… that was an article from March 10, 2012

  17. TBA, your opinion is noted. You didn’t really have to even say it – I can predict with some accuracy what you will say in advance, since you’re one of the more shameless LNP shills on this site.

  18. [” You didn’t really have to even say it – I can predict with some accuracy what you will say in advance, since you’re one of the more shameless LNP shills on this site.”]

    Does that make you a Labor Shill?

    And if so can you let me know when Labor are releasing their costings? Would love to see where the monies coming from for all those promises!

  19. esj @ 35

    “he really doesn’t know if he’s Arthur or Martha”.

    This from Eddie = Edwina. What a comedian (comedienne).

    For your info my message hasn’t changed – it’s just you’re too dumb to read properly (like your mate tba).

    Next week you can start boosting your “Sir Prince Phillip”, Lord T. Abbott mate and justify his garbled message (just like you’ve tried to do for Newman).

    Back to the IPA library for you!

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