ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor in Ashgrove

A new poll finds Campbell Newman in desperate straits in the race for his seat of Ashgrove.

Courtesy of the Seven Network, ReachTEL offers what is perhaps a note of insight into the tone of panic that has been emerging lately from the Campbell Newman campaign, with no sign of the late-campaign surge that powered him to victory in Ashgrove in 2012. Labor’s lead has in fact increased from 53-47 in the January 13 poll to a formidable 54-46, from primary votes of 46.5% from Labor’s Kate Jones (down 1.1%), 42.3% for Newman (down 1.4%) and 8.2% for the Greens, up a solid 2.8%. The poll was conducted yesterday by automated phone polling from a sample of 861; full results here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

303 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor in Ashgrove”

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  1. TBA, why is it acceptable for the LNP to release costings on the LAST day previously and NOT acceptable for the ALP to release them two days out, when you know full-well that is also when the LNP were going to release them this time until Newman spun back into his parallel universe that he usually dwells in and they had to do a panic release to suck him back into this one?

  2. ESJ,

    So, why isn’t anyone taking any notice of your pusillanimous postures?

    Is it because you and Tabitha are too busy going to concerts?

  3. An article by Paula Mathewson in the new daily in regard to demands for Credlin to resign makes this interesting point:

    [However the drawing of Peta Credlin into the debate over the PM’s decision to award a knighthood to Prince Philip is not about her political judgement, or even her ability to police the PM’s. This is about a battle for the future of the Coalition government by Abbott supporters and their Liberal Party foes.]

    Article at

  4. ESJ,

    She’s stuck with me through thin and thinner. Produced so many children that have given me joy. She makes me laugh. She hasn’t thrown me out yet!

  5. ESJ,

    She’s stuck with me through thin and thinner. Produced so many children that have given me joy. She makes me laugh. She hasn’t thrown me out yet!

  6. Rupert Murdoch ‏@rupertmurdoch 11h11 hours ago
    Credlin a good person. Just appealing to her proven patriotism.

    Seriously this is beyond comedy. Trying to get Credlin to “sacrifice” herself for Abbott’s moronic behaviour, and thus to cover for Rupert’s own moronic behaviour in anointing Abbott in the first place!

  7. [I hold no candle for either party Socrates. government is the problem not the solution.]
    Yes, the Abbott and Newman governments are the problem. Correct.

  8. TBA @ 39
    [Quote]Campbell Newman heading toward a loss in seat of Ashgrove while LNP wins government, according to new poll


    Ohhh wait… wait… that was an article from March 10, 2012[/quote]

    There were 9 ReachTEL polls of Ashgrove between the 2009 & 2012 elections. 7 of those showed an LNP lead, while only 2 showed an ALP lead.

    There have been 8 ReachTEL polls since the 2012 election. All 8 of them have shown an ALP lead.

    2 out of 7 polls can be dismissed as outliers, but 8 out of 8 polls cannot be dismissed as outliers.

    In addition, a Galaxy poll before the 2012 election confirmed an LNP lead, but polling by both Galaxy and Newspoll since the 2012 election have confirmed an ALP lead.

  9. ESJ,

    You might be deaf and blind, but no one else seems to accuse me of being a shrinking violet on PB. So maybe you’ve got that wrong.

    As for sacking staff; that’s not going to save Tony Abbott.

  10. TBA

    [Ohhh wait… wait… that was an article from March 10, 2012]

    You’re quoting an article that was 2 weeks away from the 2012 election.

    With 3 days to go, it’s an uphill struggle for Newman.

    Also 3 days out from the last election, Newman was leading 54-46 against Kate Jones.

  11. Hi all from Corinna (NW Tas). Corinna’s first ever commercial wifi service opened for business today so looks like I can be online for Saturday night. No TVs here though!

  12. The weather here today was spiffing – sunny and fairly warm with light to moderate winds. Shame that for “logistic reasons” I was only able to do 2 hrs sampling but these things happen. Outlook for rest of my trip here is good.

    Thylacines – nope, it would be great if there were still any but I’m very confident that animal is alas extinct. One thing people often do is look at the vast wilderness areas here like the Tarkine and south-west and wonder how you could lose such a species with such areas. But that was never the beast’s preferred habitat. Once it was kicked out of its preferred more open woodlands it was a very marginal animal.

  13. Newman is toast. No point being in denial now. Jones will win comfortably while she leads Newman on primary votes.

    The real issue now is whether that change in primary votes is Ashgrove specific or sign of a more general trend. I guess we will know late Friday evening.

  14. Maybe the DNA in the alcohol-preserved specimens could yet be “repaired” and used in a Tasmanian Devil ovum (closest relative) to bring it back “Jurassic Park” style?

    I know, I know, but it’s nice to dream.

  15. I was only able to do 2 hrs sampling

    For a minute there I thought you were “sampling” as in polling (possibly a struggle to get an adequate sample size looking at Corinna on Google Earth!) Then I realised your real job is looking at true invertebrates, not politicians.

  16. Kevin – do you do sampling on a fixed area so you can extrapolate the numbers?

    I ask because I remember on a University Botany excursion doing this for a 10×1 metre area. One of the other groups of students had attached a rock to the end of their ten metre rope and thrown it up a tree and told our supervisor that they had found “one eucalypt” in their 10×1 section!

  17. ESJ @54:

    Wait, you’re one of -those- people?

    If you want to see “government is the problem” in action, just look at America. A rotting, hollow shell of the nation it was, thanks in large part to the gutting of public functions.

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