BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Public relaxation over summer, the quirks of a shallow pool of poll results, actual improvement in the government’s standing – whatever the cause, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has again recorded movement in favour of the Coalition.

Week two of BludgerTrack for 2015 adds only the latest Essential Research result to last week’s numbers from Essential and Roy Morgan. This is pretty thin gruel so far as poll aggregation goes, but nonetheless, let it be noted that BludgerTrack finds the latest result to be a lot more like the Morgan poll than Essential’s strong result for Labor last week, and thus shifts a little further the Coalition’s way. The 0.4% move on two-party preferred translates into three gains for the Coalition on the seat projection, namely one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,676 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

  1. [ Boerwar.
    Caring about whether those two are executed and the welfare of addicts is not mutually exclusive.

    I do not believe any state or government should have the right to kill its citizens. As an Australian who has lived most of her life without her government having any right to kill her, I do not understand why any government should be illegally be able to do so. The word barbaric comes to mind.

    That includes the Bali Bombers, who gained martyr status with their deaths.

    Good stuff Puffy!

    If Chan and Sukamarin are executed, the Indonesians are not executing the same men as those who committed the crime. It is almost universally agreed that they have reformed themselves and that they assist in the rehabilitation and reform of other prisoners.

    I would very much have liked to see the Bali Bombers held in prison and rehabilitated so they could feel true remorse for their hideous crimes and then be used to dissuade others. Of course if that transformation did not occur, they would just rot in gaol so the requirement for punishment is fulfilled.]

    1. I did not say that the two were mutually exclusive. I still wonder how many of the people who are expending so much effort on behalf of Sukurman and Chang are spending any effort at all looking after their putative clients – heroin addicts.

    Just the other day we had a Bludger poster put up a moving post on his son and the horrific destruction inflicted on him and all his life by drugs. I don’t support the death penalty. But neither do I support individuals making a very large financial profit by carting misery and death to heroin addicts.

    This is what Sukurman and Chang were doing: inflicting misery and an early death on many, many people. And they were doing it deliberately, with full knowledge of the consequences of their action and with a view to making very large profits. The death penalties that Sukurman and Chang were imposing on others is not mentioned.

    Sukurman and Chang supporters could at least acknowledge this. But they do not.

    2. As far as I know the Bali bombers served out their custodial sentences and were executed where death sentences where these were issued. But I am a bit hazy about that.

    3. I do not hold a brief for the Indonesian system of ‘justice’. Similarly, the Australian system of justice shows similar large scale distortions and, essentially, corruption. Here are some examples:
    (a) If you are indigenous you are over-policed. You are far more likely to be charged for the same behaviour than an non-indigenous person. If convicted you are far more likely to be convicted. And if convicted you are far more likely to be do jail time. The proportional jailing of Indigenous youth is a national scandal.

    (b) If you are a policeman you are investigated by fellow-policeman. As a result, police have a culture of impunity. They kill people but are rarely charged for it.

    (c) If you are very, very wealthy and you defraud millions of dollars you are far less likely to be detected, investigated, charged, convicted or jailed.

    (d) If you are a crony you get very, very large, free gifts from your political mates. Examples abound. Despite this corruption it is exceedingly rare for either you or your political mates to end up in court, let alone jail.

    Australian people who are complaining about corruption in Indonesian justice live in glass houses.

  2. Abbott’s ‘compassion’ stunt is, of course, bullshit.

    If Abbott wants to exercise some real human compassion, he could start and Manus, move on to Nauru, spend some time with his kiddy prisoners in Darwin, and then put the muzzle on his attack dog Morrison who has clearly signalled his intent to savage Australia’s disabled and to hold them hostage against the ongoing welfare of other social security recipients.

  3. ooohhh, ooohhh, ooohhh – Ricky Muir actually understands the economic argument IN favour of penalty rates (it increases purchasing power). Maybe he could explain it to some of the dumb-sh…s at the business lobby groups.

  4. CTar1

    It would appear so.

    [David Hicks charged as a ‘favour’ to Australia, says former Guantanamo prosecutor

    AS HE sought re-election in 2007, John Howard called in a political ”favour” from the US government to get any charge possible laid against David Hicks, a former Guantanamo Bay chief military prosecutor has claimed.

    Colonel Morris Davis’s accusation against the former prime minister, in an interview with The Sun-Herald, adds weight to an American journalist’s report which quotes leaked US government documents.

    …… case. We told the world these guys are the ‘worst of the worst’. David Hicks was a knucklehead. He was just a foot solider, not a war criminal.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/us-did-howard-a-favour-20110820-1j3k3.html

  5. CTar1

    It would appear so.

    [David Hicks charged as a ‘favour’ to Australia, says former Guantanamo prosecutor

    AS HE sought re-election in 2007, John Howard called in a political ”favour” from the US government to get any charge possible laid against David Hicks, a former Guantanamo Bay chief military prosecutor has claimed.

    Colonel Morris Davis’s accusation against the former prime minister, in an interview with The Sun-Herald, adds weight to an American journalist’s report which quotes leaked US government documents.

    …… case. We told the world these guys are the ‘worst of the worst’. David Hicks was a knucklehead. He was just a foot solider, not a war criminal.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/us-did-howard-a-favour-20110820-1j3k3.html

  6. Well Smith’s decision to bowl after winning the toss has turned out swimmingly hasn’t it…

    As for Palmer’s offer to bankroll Jones, that’s just silly since Jones would be one of the richest people in Oz anyway.
    Probably just Clive grandstanding and trying to score some cheap publicity.

  7. This e-government thingy. Wouldn’t it work even faster if we had Labor’s NBN?

    And if Labor had suggested e-government, there’d be screams of “No way!” from Turnbull/Abbott.

  8. [Caring about whether those two are executed and the welfare of addicts is not mutually exclusive.

    I do not believe any state or government should have the right to kill its citizens. As an Australian who has lived most of her life without her government having any right to kill her, I do not understand why any government should be illegally be able to do so. The word barbaric comes to mind.]

    Yairs, tell that to Mick Keelty and the AFP. They’re the ones with blood on their hands if this execution comes to pass.

    Imagine being the bloke who dobbed his son in, with a plea for help. The AFP gladly sucked that info up, and used it against Australia’s own citizens.

    That bloke’s son isn’t about to be executed, but imagine how he feels. Doubly betrayed.

    Howard’s filth has a lot to answer for. Exhibit A: Hicks.

    And Abbott’s filth is going down the same path. They don’t give a flying ratsarsk about the citizenry, just their hold on power.

    And if a civvie stuffs up, who cares. Certainly not Abbott and friends, those righteous bastards who say abortion is murder, but the killing of a human being, once outside the womb, means nothing.

    Note the sending of forces to yet another un-winnable war.

    Abbott’s waterlogged. Can’t hear a thing. Tin ear? Glue ear!

  9. kezza

    [Imagine being the bloke who dobbed his son in, with a plea for help. The AFP gladly sucked that info up, and used it against Australia’s own citizens.]

    That said everything about the ALP. I was very shocked.

  10. LU at 186
    Late response cos I went to the dump.

    [Sorry to burst your bubble, but I’m pretty sure “human capital” means the skills embodied in people, and improved though education and experience, fred.]

    Note that word ‘people’ in there LU, can’t have skills whatever without people, they tend to be a bit integral to the concept.
    As BK said:
    [The Libs think it’s $ per hour]
    Its all about ideology and propaganda.

  11. Ch 10 news at 5pm:

    1. “Suspicious” item on Sydney ferry yesterday was a security training device owned by the ferry company itself (Sydney ferries were privatised last year). Company CEO came across as a completely arrogant type, refusing to accept any responsibility for the extreme inconvenience caused to the public. But of course “private operation is far superior to government operation”.

    2. Story on PC review of low paid wages and working conditions, completely unfavourable to the government and Abbott.

  12. It seems that the object that caused the lockdown in Sydney’s Circular Quay precinct yesterday was a device owned by Sydney Ferries and used in security exercises. A fake bomb perhaps? (my interpretation).

    No one is saying anything of course, but there is the big mystery of what it was doing unattended on a ferry. Was it a botched security drill? Did an employee charged with taking it somewhere inadverently leave it on the ferry when he/she got off? It all has a touch of Inspector Clouseau about it.

  13. BW
    [Just the other day we had a Bludger poster put up a moving post on his son and the horrific destruction inflicted on him and all his life by drugs.]

    I missed that. But, you do know, don’t you, Boerwar, that people have a choice whether or not they consume a particular drug.

    It’s not as if they don’t know the consequences. Drug info has been available in schools since Adam was a lad. And Adam was a confrere. So that’s a bloody long time.

    You can’t blame a drug mule for the choices of the addicts or would-be addicts.

    Perhaps the drug mules saw easy money, just as Abbott did when he decided to become an MP.

    Abbott’s not up to the job, and nor were they.

  14. Mike Baird, as far as liberal premiers go, is quite a moderate and decent bloke.His comments on refugees confirms that to me.
    Some of his colleagues are your usual tory non entities but Baird himself is quite ok. Would never vote for him but you can see why the libs in NSW will have a pretty easy win in March.

  15. [ poroti
    Posted Friday, January 23, 2015 at 4:30 pm | Permalink

    dave

    Reith on RN was , surprise surprise, saying re workplace (cough) “reform” that they should be radical and go for a “big bang” approach. ]

    poroti

    They are probably crazy enough to do that. The big bang might them getting size 12’s up their clackers again too.

  16. Nice little article from news.com.au (the asterisks are theirs):

    [WE’RE f*****’ — at least, that’s what one Liberal MP allegedly thinks.

    After canvassing around 20 per cent of the Coalition party room in five states speaking to MPs the ABCreported the mood around our Prime Minister Tony Abbott wasn’t pretty.

    Under the guise of remaining anonymous it seems our country’s political leaders were quite candid in their views and concern over the Prime Minister’s ‘style’ of leadership.

    They acknowledged a growing dislike of the nation’s leader as “toxic” and unable to recover in the polls.]

    http://www.news.com.au/national/were-f-unofficial-quotes-from-inside-the-liberal-party-about-prime-minister-tony-abbott/story-fncynjr2-1227194712669

  17. Kezza2 @266. I know of a reformed addict. When he was eight years old, he and his younger sister were physically and sexually abused by both alcoholic parents and their drinking buddies. At the age of 14 he found an escape from all of the abuse. It was called Heroin. If as you say, it’s always such a simple choice, what is your choice – physical and sexual abuse or Heroin?

    Don’t stereotype others or judge them until you have worn their shoes….

    Tom.

  18. [dave

    Posted Friday, January 23, 2015 at 5:29 pm | Permalink

    poroti
    Posted Friday, January 23, 2015 at 4:30 pm | Permalink

    dave

    Reith on RN was , surprise surprise, saying re workplace (cough) “reform” that they should be radical and go for a “big bang” approach.

    poroti

    They are probably crazy enough to do that. The big bang might them getting size 12′s up their clackers again too.
    ]

    Does this mean the Labs are giving directions to the independent Product Commission.

  19. [AS HE sought re-election in 2007, John Howard called in a political ”favour” from the US government to get any charge possible laid against David Hicks, a former Guantanamo Bay chief military prosecutor has claimed.]

    We already knew that. Howard was, and always was, an opportunist. Dicked his grades and dicked the electorate.

    And he now likes to think he’s an elder statesman. He he. What a joke. A total embarrassment.

    Little racist bastard.

    That’s why the Indians blocked his appointment to the ICB. Internationally, Howard is regarded as the racist he is, and always was.

  20. [ Does this mean the Labs are giving directions to the independent Product Commission. ]

    I doubt if its that blatant, but they set the parameters etc of the review and will decide what they want to *try* and implement – or not.

    We need to just look at what they have said over years on the subject and what the demands of some employers are.

  21. Tell me it’s not children brainwashed by parents who have been brainwashed themselves that have, because of all the brainwashing, been sexually abused by cynical use by priestly predators of the power the brainwashing causes them to be in awe of. And who protects the priestly predators through their actions or inaction? The brainwashed of course!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/priest-john-sidney-denham-sentenced-to-another-13-years-jail-for-sexual-abuse-of-boys-20150123-12wx83.html

  22. Mark Kenny 20 minutes ago:

    [Tony Abbott has been quietly ringing backbenchers since the start of the year, as he manages growing anxiety over his government’s performance.

    But a source close to him denied the calls were an attempt to shore up flagging support, insisting they were for information gathering purposes and had always been part of Mr Abbott’s plan for wider prime ministerial consultation in 2015.

    The insider said the Prime Minister had flagged a “reset at the end of 2014” that would inevitably involve a broader advisory structure than had been the case last year and that he planned to use the feedback to inform his political strategy, which will be outlined at the National Press Club in just over a week.

    Fairfax Media has learned the calls have been made to selected backbenchers seen as influential in the party room or whose judgment Mr Abbott respects.
    ]

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/pms-courting-of-back-bench-a-planned-move-20150123-12wu55.html

  23. I’m sure the Government will do its utmost to set the instructions/guidelines for the review of workplace relations by the Productivity Commission to channel it towards the result they want.

  24. Tom
    [Don’t stereotype others or judge them until you have worn their shoes….]
    Just so you know, I have worn those shoes.

    I was sexually abused as a child, but not like your example. I didn’t choose heroin. I chose alcohol.

  25. Hari makes an interesting case but is seems to me that he oversells his POV in two ways:

    (1) Drug-taking is often ‘sociable’ in the sense of being done with other drug takers. Drinkers congregate with drinkers, for example. But whether social/heavy drinkers then become alcoholics and social isolates, I don’t now.

    (2) Individuals vary in the extent and readiness with which the hooks attach.

    (3) I wonder whether he would hold to his views in relation to Ice.

    That said, I am 100% for the Portugal approach. Even if it only works half the time it is around about 100% better than what we have.

  26. Good bowling at the death from the aussies, thought the poms would get at least 330.
    William, am of the view Bishop and Hockey are stirring the pot.
    Bishop, thanks to the glossies and Murdoch, thinks the PM ship is within her grasp. Hockey I reckon is feeling a little bitter that nobody seems to understand or support him, in particular Abbott.
    That said, I don’t think they are on a unity ticket with their “backgrounding”.

  27. [Because it isn’t true. Sukumaran and Chan did not force anyone to take heroin]

    Just the same sort of turds that populate tobacco companies ….that’s where the machine-gunning might start

  28. Paul Sheehan on The Drum says that Ged Kearney is talking rubbish when she defends unions. It’s all a scare campaign, just as he expected. He sounded off his tree, he was so excited. So I assume we can look foward to his pontifications on the subject in SMH soon.

  29. Morrison popped up today with a look at moi assurance that he stopped the boats and he is going to stop the NDIS if he can’t stop social security rorts.

  30. I was sent some old accounts who were following me on twitter one was Crikey Whitey starting up a twitter account with my help by email early one morning (australian time) while I was overseas, made me very sad when I saw the tweets she sent me when she succeeded.

  31. Kezza2, my apologies I hope that you are making some form of recovery from both afflictions. But I must ask, if you have been through similar crap and, understandably in my view, looked for an escape, how can you be so dismissive of people that chose a different drug to you?

    Tom.

    P.S. I am not being nasty, just trying to understand.

  32. [ossmcg
    Posted Friday, January 23, 2015 at 6:00 pm | PERMALINK
    Citizen

    So abbott has been calling backbenchers whose judgment he trusts.

    Like to know who they are.]

    The thing is, have these trusted people been telling him what he WANTS to hear or what he NEEDS to hear?

  33. Boerwar

    He was on that theme a feww days ago. Apparently the unemployed have to make sacrifices if they want the disabled to have benefits.

    Perhaps Morrison is thinking of the Judgement of Solomon.

  34. Kinkjou
    [Just the same sort of turds that populate tobacco companies ….that’s where the machine-gunning might start]

    Except they weren’t advertising it, like the tobacco companies were allowed.

    If you want a hit of smack, you know where to get it. You don’t need an expensive ad campaign to get you where you want to be.

    [Sukumaran and Chan did not force anyone to take heroin]

    They were merely a conduit between supply and demand. And were going to be paid handsomely for it. Ain’t that capitalism?

    And why aren’t the Big Boys behind bars. You know, the fuckers who actually make money out of the trade?

    That’s right, we allow them to execute the bastards who get caught doing their dirty work.

    While they get off, scott free.

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