BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Public relaxation over summer, the quirks of a shallow pool of poll results, actual improvement in the government’s standing – whatever the cause, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has again recorded movement in favour of the Coalition.

Week two of BludgerTrack for 2015 adds only the latest Essential Research result to last week’s numbers from Essential and Roy Morgan. This is pretty thin gruel so far as poll aggregation goes, but nonetheless, let it be noted that BludgerTrack finds the latest result to be a lot more like the Morgan poll than Essential’s strong result for Labor last week, and thus shifts a little further the Coalition’s way. The 0.4% move on two-party preferred translates into three gains for the Coalition on the seat projection, namely one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,676 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

  1. lizzie
    Morrison’s modus operandi – demonise somebody and then belt them around the ears. It was easy with asylum seekers. He may find it a bit more difficult with real Australians.

  2. The allegations around Hicks incarceration have always been thoroughly sickening. If we as a nation allow this despicable act (if proven) to be swept under the carpet … we are nothing.

  3. Tom
    [. . . how can you be so dismissive of people that chose a different drug to you?]

    I wasn’t being dismissive, I said there was a choice.
    And there are degrees of abuse. And degrees of choice.

    I don’t think people who are trying to make a buck out of another’s misfortune, by supplying them with their drug of choice, warrants the death penalty.

    That’s all.

  4. Boerwar

    I’m hoping (hoping, hoping) that Morrison will fall flat on his face in his portfolio. He preached charity in his maiden speech, but being in government seems to have destroyed any of that socialist nonsense in him.

  5. Im over bashing my head against the wall about the Libs and their performance. So its with no surprise or shock that they crazy libs have craftily opened the door to Work Choices II.. What a stunning performance… that should win the next election lol. This strategic strike against your own re-election chances could only be beaten if they knife a first term PM (which there is apparently talk about). Its beyond a laugh now.

    Ta ta.

  6. lizzie
    [I’m hoping (hoping, hoping) that Morrison will fall flat on his face in his portfolio. He preached charity in his maiden speech, but being in government seems to have destroyed any of that socialist nonsense in him.]

    Platitudinous bullshit from the Gospel singer.

    Or self-delusion. Take your pick.

    Morrison seems to me to be a “Do what I preach, not what I practice” kinda guy.

    It all seems to unremarkable in theory, but practice brings out the inner Lucifer.

    No self-awareness at all.

  7. [rummel
    Posted Friday, January 23, 2015 at 6:34 pm | PERMALINK
    Im over bashing my head against the wall about the Libs and their performance. So its with no surprise or shock that they crazy libs have craftily opened the door to Work Choices II.. What a stunning performance… that should win the next election lol. This strategic strike against your own re-election chances could only be beaten if they knife a first term PM (which there is apparently talk about). Its beyond a laugh now.

    Ta ta.]

    How’re ya goin’, ya little fucker?

  8. rummel

    Hola young rummster. My theory that Abbott is in fact the Labor Party’s ‘Manchurian Candidate’ is starting to look good 🙂

  9. Sorry, meant to add some quotes.

    At least this farce is over.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-23/constable-found-not-guilty-of-assaulting-yasser-shahin/6043152

    [District Court Judge Paul Rice said he believed the case was “not in the public interest” to pursue in court and “wholeheartedly” agreed with the unanimous verdict handed down by the jury.]

    And

    [SA Police Association president Mark Carroll

    “The DPP made the inexplicable decision to prosecute,” he said.

    “It is quite disturbing to think that a police officer who grabbed the shirt of a person repeatedly refusing to follow lawful directions would end up charged by the DPP charged with aggravated assault.”
    ]

  10. I have feeling that Morrison might be a bit of a one trick Tony.

    His aggressive, hard nut approach we saw in Immigration seems to be the same one we are seeing in Social Security.

    We’ll wait and see.

    Should interesting, especially now he is dealing with people who have a voice.

  11. Don’t forget Rummel that they are taking tax reform to the next election as well. Work Choices II and tax reform in the same election ….

  12. Barney in Saigon

    [His aggressive, hard nut approach we saw in Immigration ]

    Yep, when it comes down to it most don’t give a shit about being nasty to “boat people” and “illegals” . Will be a bit harder to spin whipping actual ‘Strayans.

  13. Julie Bishop for PM???

    If anyone let the sisterhood down, it was JuLIE Bishop.

    What a bloody joke. JuLIE woudn’t know if her arsk was on fire, she’s so used to LYING.

    Nah! she lost me, if she ever had me, when she was so partisan about Julia Gillard’s election to the Deputy PMship,let alone the PMship itself.

    JuLIE showed she was just a hack when she couldn’t even compliment Australia’s first female PM.

    And then to watch her bat her eyelashes at Rudd was sickening in the extreme, and pathetic – as far as womens’ issues go – in the here and now.

    Maybe she thought she should be in the job, but she showed a complete ineptness in each portfolio she took on, until she sucked so far up Rudd’s arse, she seems merely competent in comparison.

    And the fools think she’d make a good PM.

    Unfortunately she’ll be subjected to the same inane dross from the MSM, and the outcome’s not going to be pleasant, specially when they reveal her past liaisons with deadbeats from the LNP.

    dog help us, it’s going to be a repeat of the shite Julia Gillard suffered.

    I wouldn’t mind, except JuLIE bishop was one of the main offenders in that race to the bottom.

    The favour returned couldn’t happen to a nicer person.

  14. Welcome back rummel.

    [ This strategic strike against your own re-election chances could only be beaten if they knife a first term PM (which there is apparently talk about). ]

    Ahhh. But how about if they replace him with a single, allegedly female lawyer with no kids??

    🙂

  15. sprocket
    [Excellent article by Peter Brent, here is his conclusion]

    How many’s he got wRONg now?

    He’s just a “Sit On The Fence” dude. Nothing happening in his neck of the woods.

  16. frednk @326,

    I’m not sure what you’re saying. Turnbull has absolutely destroyed any chance of decent broadband come 2020. And making him PM? I can’t see how that helps much. Hopefully putting him on charge of egovernment will put more scrutiny on him and force him to make more mistakes.

  17. Someone mentioned earlier that what’s wrong with the Liberals isn’t the leader, its the policies.

    I agree.

    The question here is does replacing Abbott help the cause of the media/public discovering that their policies are truly dangerous, or does it hinder that cause?

  18. Re Cudchewer @328: 70% of the media are well aware of and are actively boosting these dangerous, toxic policies. The leadership won’t change without their approval.

  19. [
    cud chewer
    Posted Friday, January 23, 2015 at 8:10 pm | Permalink

    frednk @326,

    I’m not sure what you’re saying.
    ]
    Turnbull note to self: Step one; undo the mess I made and implement fibre to the home.

  20. Malcolm Turnbull (after being promoted by Abbott to e-govt superfuhrer:

    [“My ideal is to be in a situation where the MyGov platform was available to every level of government and people could have a single, secure, digital identity that enabled transactions from the local council, the state government, so everything from childcare allowances, to your rates, stamp duty, traffic fines,” he said.]

    And he says it with such an innocent, bland visage. Nothing to see here folks, except nothing like folkswagen gas chambers could occur under his watch.

    Malcolm forgets to mention he’s blindfolded.

    Fuck this bunch scare me.

    http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/government-it/tony-abbott-promotes-malcolm-turnbull-to-take-charge-of-egovernment-20150123-12wstp.html

  21. [79
    meher baba

    PB Labor tragics (to whose number I do not belong) should not be too disheartened by the BludgerTrack numbers.]

    Not worrying me, and not just for the good reasons you gave.

    A small tick or so back to Abbott is one more chance for him to hang on a bit longer so he can finish wrecking his own joint good and proper.

    Only seems fair.

    Hope Labor have a full bag of considered, integrated policies to go, and a coordinated plan to sell them, when the Libs go for leadership change or an election, or both. Cos it might be sooner than later.

    Kudos to rummel for dealing with reality on this.

  22. Malcolm Turnbull

    [“It would be opt in. The aim is to make digital modes of engagement so compelling that people want to use it,” he said,]

    What he means is “Make it so COMPELLING that people HAVE to use it”

    With Liberals you just have to follow the money.

    Which bloated plutocrat of the 1% gets the financial benefit??

  23. frednk,

    [Turnbull note to self: Step one; undo the mess I made and implement fibre to the home.]

    Its become obvious that Turnbull actually believes in what he’s doing. this is not about preserving the NBN in any real sense but instead its about delivering communications back to Telstra, which from the Liberal point of view is where it should be.

  24. CC
    “Its become obvious that Turnbull actually believes in what he’s doing. this is not about preserving the NBN in any real sense but instead its about delivering communications back to Telstra, which from the Liberal point of view is where it should be.”

    Don’t you mean propping up Rupert’s business model & limiting competition

  25. sceptic
    [
    CC
    “Its become obvious that Turnbull actually believes in what he’s doing]
    Nah , by trade he is disinterested when it comes to the ins and outs of a deal. What matters is the “right” people make money out of the deal.

  26. From Victoria’s link!

    What a prick!

    [Employment Minister Eric Abetz told Fairfax Media the government would not take any of the commission’s recommendations to Parliament before the next election in 2016.

    “The only people who have anything to fear from this inquiry are those who know deep in their hearts that they don’t have robust evidence to put before the commission,” he said.]

  27. The UK Labour Party so loathes/fears the SNP that, should the SNP hold the balance of power in Westminster after May, a grand coalition with the Conservative and is becoming more of a possibility……

    (I suppose the red and blue tories have a natural affinity)

    [“Why is the Labour party going to troop through the Lobby to support the government? I have only one explanation. I may be wrong, and it is possibly above my pay grade to get involved, but I think that Labour’s decision to support the government tonight is the start of overtures around a grand coalition.”

    For most MPs, says Waugh, the idea of a grand coalition is a bit of a joke. “And yet, and yet. A few free radicals in both parties are privately talking about the idea as a means of providing stability in the national interest.”

    The solution might well please the City. As the Financial Times reported earlier this week, the main worry among financiers is not so much who will win the election but that a period of uncertainty after 7 May will be damaging.]

    [Paul Waugh, editor of Politics Home, believes it is possible. He says there is “a small band of people in both main parties” who are considering it as an option. What unites them, he says, “is an equal loathing of the Lib Dems, but also the SNP, Ukip and the Greens”.]

    Read more: http://www.theweek.co.uk/politics/general-election-2015/62210/time-for-grand-coalition-of-labour-and-the-tories#ixzz3PdaVULNy

  28. The people who were using heroin trafficked by Chan and Sukumaran – what did they do after those two were arrested? Got it from someone else I suppose. What will they do (if they are still alive) if Chan and Sukumaran are executed? Get it from someone else I suppose.

    If Australia enacted the death penalty for these crimes we would be killing lots of our prisoners, because many of our inmantes are in for drug offences.

    I sometimes think of the collapse of Enron in the USA – here thousands of people lost their life savings, ruining lives and retirement savings, and preventing children going to College, and condemning many people to poverty. All because of crooked leadership at Enron – those affected were not a party to the problem but their lives were savagely affected. Most of the Enron “crooks” got about 2-3 years in prison.

  29. poroti @338,

    [Nah , by trade he is disinterested when it comes to the ins and outs of a deal. What matters is the “right” people make money out of the deal.]

    That’s not inconsistent with what I said. Turnbull is trying to make sure Telstra gets control back because its only right and proper.

  30. poroti @ 343

    Reminds me of the huge kerfuffle when Julia Gillard did not mention Rudd as a former great PM at the ALP National Conference.

    He has now moved into the dead zone – where everything you do or say is parsed for something negative. Couldn’t happen to a more deserving person.

    PS – I saw that Peter Dutton and Greg Hunt did not get a guernsey either.

  31. [kezza2

    Posted Friday, January 23, 2015 at 7:43 pm | Permalink

    He’s just a “Sit On The Fence” dude. Nothing happening in his neck of the woods.

    Peter Brent
    “And now he’s been moved to Social Services. Social Services, for Christ’s sake. There’s only so much political gain to be wrung out of dole bludgers. Morrison’s star is going to fade fast in his new portfolio;” ]

    I think he’s giving a pretty definite opinion.

  32. swamprat

    Hoots mon ! You would have liked the cricket game NZ v Sri Lanka today. Played in the uber scots city of Dunedin the oval was mowed in a manner to produce a tartan pattern.

  33. poroti

    [Hoots mon ! You would have liked the cricket game NZ v Sri Lanka today. Played in the uber scots city of Dunedin the oval was mowed in a manner to produce a tartan pattern.]

    Aye, but never heard of a Scot playing cricket…….. :-).. but they have great experience of preparing estates for gentry sports.

    It’s why Scotland still has the most unequal land ownership patterns in the whole of Europe!!!

  34. Swamprat..re the UK and the Grand Coaltion between Tories and Labour__________

    You’re right the UK :Labour party is now so right-wing(and has in recent times had a PM..Blair who is cpenly considered by many to a major war criminal..like Bush/Howard)that it might as well merge with the Tories…though that will be to the advantage of UKIP.Greens and Scot Nats

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