BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Public relaxation over summer, the quirks of a shallow pool of poll results, actual improvement in the government’s standing – whatever the cause, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has again recorded movement in favour of the Coalition.

Week two of BludgerTrack for 2015 adds only the latest Essential Research result to last week’s numbers from Essential and Roy Morgan. This is pretty thin gruel so far as poll aggregation goes, but nonetheless, let it be noted that BludgerTrack finds the latest result to be a lot more like the Morgan poll than Essential’s strong result for Labor last week, and thus shifts a little further the Coalition’s way. The 0.4% move on two-party preferred translates into three gains for the Coalition on the seat projection, namely one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,676 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

  1. victoria@187

    bemused

    Probably the most sensible thing muir has said so far

    Muir was metaphorically thrown in the deep end, but after a rather rough start, seems to have come along nicely and is generally siding with Labor. His education has recently been furthered by his discovery of just what a liar Morrison is.

  2. I think some of the discussion is missing the point of productivity.

    It is all about everyone else working longer and hard for less pay so the 1% ers can spend more freely while on holidays abroad.

    Why not allow guest workers to do domestic chores and cleaning type work, you know work Australians wouldn’t do anyway and they’ll think they are well paid at $4 per hour, capped at $20 per day.

  3. I remember that Muir missed an orientation on how to be a Senator held in May 2014 or so and the Gov was very annoyed.

    Muir’s explanation of why he missed the orientation was wonderful. It amounted to “Because you don’t start paying me my Senate Salary until 1 July. And if I don’t work I don’t get paid and if I don’t get paid my family can’t eat, so I couldn’t afford to take any time off.”

    I don’t like that there are millions of Australians who are in that position. But if there are so many, I like that at least one person in the Senate knows what it feels like.

    I was pretty annoyed at first about Muir getting elected “by accident”. But he seems to be a very common man (meant in the best possible way) in a very strange situation and just trying to do it the best he can. He’s the best example I’ve ever seen of why “elections by random ballot” might actually be a good idea. (Its a theory that Governments should be chosen in a way akin to juries.)

  4. Latest email from Bill Shorten

    [Does their shame know no limits?

    This tight-fisted Government, content to slash and burn essential public services, has splurged $14.6 million on misleading propaganda to sell its cuts to universities. We found this out just yesterday.1

    They know the truth won’t work: that people will never stand for American-style $100,000 degrees that condemn young Australians to a life of debt, and Australia to be less competitive on the world stage.

    So instead they spend your money to spread their lies. That’s why we’re fighting back.

    Can you chip in $20 to help plaster campuses with the truth when students return next month?

    https://debtsentence-australianlaborparty.nationbuilder.com/donation

    Your donation will allow us to put posters and other information up around campuses — where many new students will see it for the first time, and realise what’s at stake.

    We have the volunteers ready, and the plan in place, but we just need your help with the materials.

    Unless we want these students — starting uni for the first time next month — saddled with $100,000 US-style debt, we need to get out there with an urgent information campaign.

    Thanks for standing with me on this,]

  5. Puff

    [I do not believe any state or government should have the right to kill its citizens.]

    Nor do I Puff and although Abbott has contacted the Indonesian Government twice it does not appear to be having any impact.

  6. [“”‘Mercy should be extended’: PM’s plea””

    With six shot a couple of days ago, that statement is blowing in the WIND!.]

    Given how Abbott just stomped all over Indonesia and blew them a raspberry it would seem to me more likely that Abbott has ensured they will be executed and begging wont help.

  7. [Given how Abbott just stomped all over Indonesia and blew them a raspberry it would seem to me more likely that Abbott has ensured they will be executed and begging wont help.]

    Execution by returned boat.

  8. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@200

    Boerwar.
    Caring about whether those two are executed and the welfare of addicts is not mutually exclusive.

    I do not believe any state or government should have the right to kill its citizens. As an Australian who has lived most of her life without her government having any right to kill her, I do not understand why any government should be illegally be able to do so. The word barbaric comes to mind.

    That includes the Bali Bombers, who gained martyr status with their deaths.

    Good stuff Puffy!

    If Chan and Sukamarin are executed, the Indonesians are not executing the same men as those who committed the crime. It is almost universally agreed that they have reformed themselves and that they assist in the rehabilitation and reform of other prisoners.

    I would very much have liked to see the Bali Bombers held in prison and rehabilitated so they could feel true remorse for their hideous crimes and then be used to dissuade others. Of course if that transformation did not occur, they would just rot in gaol so the requirement for punishment is fulfilled.

  9. [“Good news that David Hicks’ conviction is likely to be quashed.

    Any chance of an apology from the Libs? “]

    Poor David Hicks(or is that Muhammed Dawood?) was just on a study tour of Afghanistan checking out the sights and sounds under the Taliban when who should he come across? A long bearded fellow by the name of Osama Bin Laden! Well David Hicks was excited indeed… so excited he wrote home to Mum and Dad and wrote his new found friend in his diary.

    David Hicks is no hero. He is certainly not the saintly angel some would like to make out. He’s been with some very very bad people who do very very bad things. Evil people.

    The fact you think he is owed an apology shows you know little of his past.

    I suggest you start here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Hicks#Afghanistan

  10. [ I would very much have liked to see the Bali Bombers held in prison and rehabilitated so they could feel true remorse for their hideous crimes and then be used to dissuade others. ]

    Several of the Bali Bombers were jailed on lesser charges, did time, were released and committed further bombings in Indonesia – Jakarta I think – and they were caught again.

    I’m not sure what happened after they were caught the second time – probably just jailed again.

    An excellent point was made the other day about Indonesians deal/supplying drug seem to sail through it all unhindered.

  11. RA 205 – Yes I met a guy from up near Warburton way who knew him (I’m not sure whether through work or 4WD stuff) and Ricky sounded like someone who, a bit shocked at being elected, was just determined to do the best job he could, knowing he was going to be there for (probably) six years.

    And as for his mode of election, is it any stranger than Cory Bernadi basically being “elected” by the inner sanctum of the South Australian Liberal Party?

  12. A fraction OT (and I may be repeating someone else) but Newman seems to have lost his head today – threatening to sue Alan Jones (which is like poking a bear with a BBQ fork) and threatening to disenfranchise electorates if they don’t vote LNP (I’m taking my ball home with me).

    What a juvenile.

  13. The bloke who rang 3AW yesterday was just interviewed on 2UE saying exactly what he said yesterday.

    He is saying in no uncertain terms that Abbott is loathed in the community and should be deposed as PM.

    He swears that he is a member of the Liberal Party and during the Vic election he was handing out HTV pamphlets and he heard from many Lib voters that they are of the same view.

    He reckons Bishop should be leader and Turnbull treasurer because he has no faith in Hockey either and said Hockey is just as bad as Abbott.

  14. “@KJBar: Clive Palmer steps in to defend Alan Jones: ‘He has my financial support for any legal action brought against him by the (QLD) Premier.’”

  15. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    Posted Friday, January 23, 2015 at 1:52 pm | Permalink

    Has Abbott congratulated the Socceroos yet? If they are lucky they won’t see hide nor hair of the creep.
    ]

    That’s a problem now. They’re leaving QLD and heading for NSW.

    Stay away, Toxic Tony.

  16. BK

    I get the impression that either Alan Jones or Campbell Newman or both are going to end up looking pretty silly here.

    What’s not to like?

  17. BK

    [Queensland Government to fast-track $600 million North Harbour development linked to donor Port Binnli, despite sea level concerns from Moreton Bay council]
    He really is CanJoh.

  18. TBA @218: no one here thinks that David Hicks is saintly, angelic or heroic. In fact, he seems to have been a bit if an idiot.

    But he broke no Australian law that was in force at the time. Before 9/11 he went to fight with the Taliban in Afghanistan. Bad idea. He was captured by opponents of the Taliban, who handed him over to US troops. At this stage he should have been handed back to Australian authorities, and when this was not done John Howard should have demanded it.

    But the USA didn’t do this. Nor did they regard him as as a prisoner of war and they did not charge him with war crimes. Instead they whisked him away to some hellhole, held him incommunicado for several years, tortured him and then hauled him before some dodgy military tribunal on a ridiculous charge of in effect ‘being a bad guy’.

    Imagine the rage if an Australian Muslim convert had gone to Afghanistan to fight the Soviet infidel invaders, was captured by Soviet allies and handed over to the Soviet military who treated him in this way.

  19. lizzie
    [Senators Ricky Muir and Nick Xenophon are seeking urgent answers on why children who were removed from Christmas Island are still being held in a detention facility in Darwin, despite former immigration minister Scott Morrison’s promise that they would be living in the community.]

    Really? You’d think that given Morrison had ’em over a barrel, ethically speaking, then they (Xenophon & Muir) would have done due diligence to see that Morrison had kept his side of the bargain, and that the kids had actually been released from detention into the community.

    Wouldn’t they? Another trust broken.

  20. RA:

    [I get the impression that either Alan Jones or Campbell Newman or both are going to end up looking pretty silly here.

    What’s not to like?]

    How about the fact that now, any time Newman is asked about the matters Jones raised, he can play the “won’t comment on matters before the court” card?

  21. [ But the Labor leader, Bill Shorten, claimed the review was “a new front in [the government’s] war on fairness”, and the outcome – which the government has promised to take to the next election – was a foregone conclusion.

    “Australians rely upon penalty rates for a significant part of their income,” Shorten said. “The government has an agenda to attack the minimum wage and penalty rates. Does anyone in Australia seriously believe Tony Abbott when he says he doesn’t want to reduce pay and conditions … Australians didn’t come down in the last shower.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jan/23/coalition-faces-uphill-task-convincing-even-their-supporters-on-penalty-rates ]

    May just help with boosting Union membership again.

    Yet another spray of voter repellent from the tory clowns.

    And tory leadershit served up as a bonus.

  22. dave

    Reith on RN was , surprise surprise, saying re workplace (cough) “reform” that they should be radical and go for a “big bang” approach.

  23. [TrueBlueAussie

    Posted Friday, January 23, 2015 at 3:31 pm | Permalink

    David Hicks is no hero. He is certainly not the saintly angel some would like to make out. He’s been with some very very bad people who do very very bad things. Evil people.
    ]

    Yes, he is not a hero.

    He did associate with some interesting people, but he committed no crimes.

  24. Lib

    Hadn’t thought of that. Will he really be able to get away with that during an election though? And it’s not commenting on matters before the court just because you ask him about corruption – you can comment on the same matters as Jones without commenting on the Jones issue itself.

  25. RA,

    Don’t think about it too hard. The argument is only going to be used as a smokescreen, and only for another week, so it’s effectively impervious to logic…

  26. [“David Hicks is no hero. He is certainly not the saintly angel some would like to make out. He’s been with some very very bad people who do very very bad things. Evil people.”

    Yes, he is not a hero.
    He did associate with some interesting people, but he committed no crimes.]

    I’ve said this before: the strength of our commitment to rights is measured by the extent to which we extend them to dislikable people.

    If rights are extended only to nice people, and denied to nasty people then they are not rights at all but privileges extended on a whim. It signifies the arbitrary rule of executive power.

    Once upon a time conservatives used to be concerned about this.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *