BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Public relaxation over summer, the quirks of a shallow pool of poll results, actual improvement in the government’s standing – whatever the cause, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has again recorded movement in favour of the Coalition.

Week two of BludgerTrack for 2015 adds only the latest Essential Research result to last week’s numbers from Essential and Roy Morgan. This is pretty thin gruel so far as poll aggregation goes, but nonetheless, let it be noted that BludgerTrack finds the latest result to be a lot more like the Morgan poll than Essential’s strong result for Labor last week, and thus shifts a little further the Coalition’s way. The 0.4% move on two-party preferred translates into three gains for the Coalition on the seat projection, namely one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,676 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

  1. Re Liberal caller ‘Andrew’

    I listened to a sound grab and read the transcript. One thing made it clear to me that this was the genuine article. He didn’t go on about Liberal policies or even just maladministration. He didn’t say a word about ‘fairness’. All he was really concerned about was not allowing Bill Shorten to have the keys to the Lodge. Only Liberals can obsess more about letting Labor govern than about policy, vision or anything else.

  2. TPOF@151: “All he was really concerned about was not allowing Bill Shorten to have the keys to the Lodge.”

    This is a view I am increasingly hearing expressed by some reasonably well-connected Coalition people I know. The way they put it to me is “It’s terrible to think that we are going so badly that a lightweight like Bill Shorten might get to become Prime Minister.”

    I know a week is a long time in politics and all that. Not to mention that the press gallery’s ability to predict what is about to happen took a bit of a battering during the Rudd-Gillard era.

    Nevertheless, it’s rather hard to see the current brouhaha ending any other way than in a change of leadership. It becomes a vicious circle: the press gallery stir up the backbenchers, who leak to the press gallery, which then poses uncomfortable questions to senior ministers, and round and round we go until we end up with a head on a stick.

  3. Sydney’s been experiencing temperatures consistently about 2 degrees above average this month – about 21 to 28 by the Harbour and 20 to 30 in most suburbs, accompanied by high humidity. By Sydney standards, there hasn’t been that much rain, although a slow moving trough brought falls of up to 110mm on the Central Coast just to the North. In spite of the warmth, there have been no particularly hot days.

    We and Melbourne are in for a big cool down from next Monday.

  4. meher baba

    Turnbull was OL for a while and he was hopeless. I still cant see JBishop being given the nod, and I say that she too is a lightweight. The coalition may very well go with Morrison. Shudder!!!

  5. MB

    [It’s terrible to think that we are going so badly that a lightweight like Bill Shorten might get to become Prime Minister.]

    Typical attitude of many Liberal supporters towards any Labor politician. Can’t have these serfs starting to think they are in the same category as REAL leaders.

  6. [ Summary of Abetz: we know nothing, we think nothing, we have handed IR over to the Productivity Commission and Fair Work Australia, it has nothing to do with us, we are innocent.]

    So does anyone know who actually wrote the “issues papers” about the IR inquiry?? They come from the Productivity Commission but who actually authored them to set the frame for the inquiry?

  7. imacca

    [They come from the Productivity Commission but who actually authored them to set the frame for the inquiry?]

    The IPA or the BCA?

    Take your pick.

  8. It’s now very clear that “Andrew” yesterday on 3AW is indeed a Liberal party member, from the SMH…

    Mr McNabb, a Liberal Party member who first confronted Mr Abbott in a talkback interview on Thursday, hit the airwaves again on Friday, telling Fairfax radio station 3AW it was time for a change in leader.

  9. CTari

    [Terms of Reference
    Inquiry into Barriers to Business Entries and Exits in the Australian Economy

    I, Joseph Benedict Hockey, Treasurer, pursuant to Parts 2 and 3 of the Productivity Commission Act 1998, hereby request that the Productivity Commission (Commission) undertake an inquiry into barriers to business entries and exits and identify options for reducing these barriers where appropriate, in order to drive efficiency and economic growth in the Australian economy.]

    http://www.joehockey.com/media/media-releases/details.aspx?r=429
    Of course, your suggestion. IPA/BCA, is correct as well.

  10. [ Since December: Iron ore has dipped a bit in current days but is starting to look like it might have found a bottom. ]

    Iron Ore is rriced in USD $ as well.

  11. Raaraa@123

    Speaking of laptop problems, I’m still having problems getting the bludger cccp greasemonkey script to run on Firefox. I had it working on Chrome, but could never get it working on Firefox no matter what I tried. Even tried looking into the script, but not much luck.

    I have in the past successfully run Greasemonkey on Firefox and I am pretty sure there are other Firefox users using it.

    I now run Chrome and actually had more trouble getting cccp working on Chrome.

  12. [ They come from the Productivity Commission but who actually authored them to set the frame for the inquiry? ]

    Looked at the documents on the Commissions website as obviously fredex @ 162 did.

    [ I, Joseph Benedict Hockey, Treasurer, ]

    Regardless of anything said by the slimy Erica, the Libs own ALL this lock stock and barrel as its all under JoHo’s name.

    They are Fwarked.

  13. When WorkNOchoices version 1.0 was operating in the days of the last COALition government my son’s employers offered their workers a new contract which, among other things, stipulated that they could be required to work an extra day, or extra hours, with only 24 hours notice.
    This was unsuitable for my son.
    His wife is a chronic invalid with a debilitating disease [MS] and he, and she, have to be able to carefully their time.
    He pointed this out during his individual ‘negotiation’ with the senior manage and requested a different arrangement.
    “Take it or leave it, if you don’t like it fuck off’ was the verbatim response.
    So he did.

  14. I’m under moderation – I used a rude word. Fair enough.
    Here is the same comment with the rude word replaced by ****.
    When WorkNOchoices version 1.0 was operating in the days of the last COALition government my son’s employers offered their workers a new contract which, among other things, stipulated that they could be required to work an extra day, or extra hours, with only 24 hours notice.
    This was unsuitable for my son.
    His wife is a chronic invalid with a debilitating disease [MS] and he, and she, have to be able to carefully manage their time.
    He pointed this out during his individual ‘negotiation’ with the senior manage and requested a different arrangement.
    “Take it or leave it, if you don’t like it **** off’ was the verbatim response.
    So he did.

  15. From previous thread:

    [“The collapse of the wavefunction appears to happen non-locally, which is something of a mystery for classical/relativistic thinking, but this doesn’t actually involve transmission of information.”

    Doesn’t it? How is that not information?]

    Because the collapse of the wavefunction into an observable state is a random process, and you can’t extract information from randomness.

    As mentioned the information content resides in the wavefunction which propagates through space normally.

  16. meher baba@152

    TPOF@151: “All he was really concerned about was not allowing Bill Shorten to have the keys to the Lodge.”

    This is a view I am increasingly hearing expressed by some reasonably well-connected Coalition people I know. The way they put it to me is “It’s terrible to think that we are going so badly that a lightweight like Bill Shorten might get to become Prime Minister.”


    Shorten a lightweight???

    Can they keep a straight face while saying that with the present incumbent?

    I have over the years spent many hours talking to Libs while handing out HTVs. Many of the rank and file are not particularly hostile to Labor policies but have managed to demonise unions in their minds to the extent that they become quite irrational.

    They have also swallowed a lot of the ‘debt and deficit’ mantras and appear to believe them. I wonder how that is going for them with the present dismal economic performance?

  17. Could the caller be a set-up by factions in the Liberal Party? Was this the first nudge of pirate Abbott along the plank?

  18. imacca@159

    Summary of Abetz: we know nothing, we think nothing, we have handed IR over to the Productivity Commission and Fair Work Australia, it has nothing to do with us, we are innocent.


    So does anyone know who actually wrote the “issues papers” about the IR inquiry?? They come from the Productivity Commission but who actually authored them to set the frame for the inquiry?

    He was channelling similar words spoken by Great Uncle Otto after his arrest. 👿

  19. [Senators Ricky Muir and Nick Xenophon are seeking urgent answers on why children who were removed from Christmas Island are still being held in a detention facility in Darwin, despite former immigration minister Scott Morrison’s promise that they would be living in the community.

    The former immigration minister had promised in December all children would be removed from Christmas Island by Christmas and placed into the community, in return for the crossbenchers’ support of Mr Morrison’s wide-ranging and controversial changes to the Migration Act.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/senators-seek-urgent-answers-from-minister-as-children-remain-in-detention-despite-deal-20150123-12woqr.html

  20. [ “Take it or leave it, if you don’t like it **** off’ was the verbatim response. ]

    Which is pretty much the Federal Govts attitude in the PS pay negotiations now, under the current system.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/workchoices-20-unions-vow-to-mobilise-over-sweeping-workplace-review-20150123-12wk2o.html

    [ Professor Stewart, of Adelaide University, said he was hopeful the Productivity Commission’s review would stick to its promise of being based on evidence, not ideology.

    “If the commission sticks to that, then I’m fairly sure we are not going to see major and radical reforms being proposed because the evidence simply isn’t there … it is very hard to reach any conclusion about the economic impact of having a particular regulatory system.

    “But if it is going to be based on ideology, you could almost write the report now with major changes to labour market regulation.” ]

    This will be much like the Superannuation changes that the Libs are trying to slip through. It will ALL be based on ideology not evidence, with lots of sound colour and movement to try and distract the plebs.

    Still, its a good recruitment issue for the Unions to build around and i would expect them to be ramping up over the first half of this year. The only way to avoid a WorkChoices re-run and keep a Living Wage in this country will be to dump this lot in 2016.

  21. Just to register here the many complaints I have put on Twitter over the last four days, the Channel Nine coverage of the South Australian Tour Down Under cycling event.

    They got it instead of SBS, who do amazing coverage. Nine only shows the last

  22. DEFINITION of ‘Labor Productivity’

    http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/labor-productivity.asp

    Not necessarily the best source for a definition of ‘labour productivity’ but it’ll do.
    Note the bit between the *s.

    [A measurement of economic growth of a country.

    ***Labor productivity measures the amount of goods and services produced by one hour of labor.***

    More specifically, labor productivity measures the amount of real GDP produced by an hour of labor. Growing labor productivity depends on three main factors: investment and saving in physical capital, new technology and human capital]

    Forget the other factors, they are of little concern to the IPA/BCA/media/COALition.

    Basically decrease in labour costs aka ‘human capital'[lovely bit of jargon isn’t it, it actually means wages, salaries and conditions] = increased productivity and therefore everybody [sic] will be happier.

    Ideology is inbuilt into the ‘debate’.

  23. I suspect any trust Ricky Muir might once have had in the word of the Govt has all gone.

    And Ricky seems to know where he came from and where his loyalties lie.

    [MUIR JOINS THE FIGHT TO PROTECT PENALTY RATES

    Senator Muir (pictured), who comes from the Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party, was prompted by media reports in early-January to declare where his sympathies lie.

    The usually media-shy Victorian Senator chose Facebook to show which side he is on when it comes to penalty rates.

    In his Facebook post on 4 January, he recalled his own working life of long and unsociable hours and “the sore back, splinters and bruises” in the timber industry to put food on his family’s table.

    “Most of my working life has been spent working shift work going home with just enough money to keep up with the cost of living,” Senator Muir wrote.

    “I did not miss out on eating with my family, kissing my kids good night, my children’s Christmas concerts or work a Saturday missing out on a trip to the beach on a hot day that the kids have been nagging about just for the love of my job.

    “I did it to simply keep up with the ever increasing cost of living and to try to get ahead and to save to enjoy a few treats from time to time.

    “I constantly hear similar stories. People working hard, long or out of the ordinary hours and sacrificing their leisure time to keep ahead rather than fall behind.

    “Without the incentive of penalty rates, or a reduction of your current penalty rates, would you be inclined to work weekends, late at night, early in the morning or beyond your ordinary hours of work?”

    Senator Muir also touched on the economic argument in defence of penalty rates: that the money earned by low-paid workers goes back into the local economy as consumer spending and helps keep small businesses going.

    “Do you own a small business, perhaps a coffee shop, fish and chip shop, a small retail or toy shop in a rural area?” he asked.

    “Do you think there is a chance that if penalty rates are tightened it could affect your business as customers tighten up their budgets?”]

  24. Sorry to burst your bubble, but I’m pretty sure “human capital” means the skills embodied in people, and improved though education and experience, fred.

  25. fredex

    [More specifically, labor productivity measures the amount of real GDP produced by an hour of labor. ]

    French workers are often slagged off for being slack arsks but their productivity per hour beats most countries in the world.

    [French: The Most Productive People In The World

    France has $36,500 GDP/Capita and works 1,453 hours per year. This equates to a GDP/Capita/Hour of $25.10. Americans, on the other hand, have $44,150 GDP/Capita but work 1,792 hours per year. Thus Americans only achieve $24.60 of GDP/Capita/Hour.

    This puts the French labour Alpha at about $0.50 GDP/Capita/Hour over the US……………Winning is not about working hard. It’s about working smart]
    http://www.businessinsider.com.au/are-the-french-the-most-productive-people-in-the-world-2009-8

    Then those pinkos at the Fortune magazine write something that dear EricA may find a little upsetting .

    [There’s little evidence that regulations like requiring overtime for work above 35 hours per week (or 40 for that matter) hamper employment or economic growth. The World Bank published a study in 2013 that surveyed the literature on labor regulations and their economic effects, and it found that mandated benefits like paid time off and a limited workweek have no real measurable effect on the efficiency of an economy.]
    http://fortune.com/2014/08/28/france-workers-work-week/

  26. MTBW

    Thanks for link to article about Quilty and Sukurman.

    It would be nice to think that the people who are expending large amounts of energy on Sukurman and Chang, should the two be executed, then turn their attention to the thousands of Australian heroin addicts who also require some dedicated attention.

  27. Just to register here the many complaints I have put on Twitter over the last four days, the Channel Nine coverage of the South Australian Tour Down Under cycling event.

    They got it instead of SBS, who do amazing coverage. Nine only shows the last less than half of the race and then allocates more time to adverts than live coverage, and in the coverage keeps breaking away to old interviews and replays of the previous day’s race. (I know it, I tweeted each break and the timestamps on my tweets prove this).

    SA provides the infrustructure, volunteers, tax money, extra police, service workers to clear hazards left from the bushfires, etc etc and we cannot even get an SBS standard telecast for people unable to go to the event.

    Whomever made the decision to sell the rights of the 2015 Tour Down Under to that bunch of amatuers and stinking faux-accountants called Channel Nine aught to have a dead fish taped to the top of their head and made walk the TDU course in the sun.

    Anyway, I think the only reason Channel Nine bought the rights was to bury the TDU in poor coverage so SBS did not drag viewers from Nine’s programs.

  28. Now that we are in the market for a new prime minister in an atmosphere where he and his peers are somewhat shopworn, whatever happened to the Young Turks?

    Isn’t this a marvellous opportunity for the Liberal Party to usher in Gen Next?

  29. [The World bank finding should be stuck up EricA’s clacker every time he tries to say it is not so.]

    By who? Morrison? :devil:

  30. Boerwar.
    Caring about whether those two are executed and the welfare of addicts is not mutually exclusive.

    I do not believe any state or government should have the right to kill its citizens. As an Australian who has lived most of her life without her government having any right to kill her, I do not understand why any government should be illegally be able to do so. The word barbaric comes to mind.

    That includes the Bali Bombers, who gained martyr status with their deaths.

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