BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Public relaxation over summer, the quirks of a shallow pool of poll results, actual improvement in the government’s standing – whatever the cause, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has again recorded movement in favour of the Coalition.

Week two of BludgerTrack for 2015 adds only the latest Essential Research result to last week’s numbers from Essential and Roy Morgan. This is pretty thin gruel so far as poll aggregation goes, but nonetheless, let it be noted that BludgerTrack finds the latest result to be a lot more like the Morgan poll than Essential’s strong result for Labor last week, and thus shifts a little further the Coalition’s way. The 0.4% move on two-party preferred translates into three gains for the Coalition on the seat projection, namely one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,676 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

  1. It looks like the Cambodians will probably get $40 million from this government for doing nothing.

    [

    Australia’s controversial $40m deal to resettle refugees in Cambodia may founder because almost all are refusing to go.

    All but three of the more than 200 refugees on Nauru refused to meet a delegation from the Cambodian government last week, and it appears uncertain whether even those three will agree to be moved.

    Guardian Australia understands from a senior immigration department source that even if no refugees are resettled, the agreement still commits Australia to pay an extra $40m in aid to Cambodia, promised to Hun Sen’s government as a quid pro quo for agreeing to the deal.

    “We have not decided yet,” Cambodia’s interior minister Sar Kheng told the Phnom Penh Post, when asked whether refugees would be resettled. “The principle remains, but whether they will come or not, we do not know.”

    Kheng said government officials would travel to the Pacific island nation again – funded by Australia – in order to further pitch the resettlement deal.
    ]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jan/22/australias-refugee-deal-with-cambodia-uncertain-as-almost-all-refuse-offer

  2. [“It looks like the Cambodians will probably get $40 million from this government for doing nothing. “]

    More boatpeople will go when they realise the advocates lied to them about ever being resettled in Australia.

    It is money well spent and this is the “Regional Solution” the Greens and left types have been calling for. Processing in the region and resettlement in the region and the Cambodians will get all the joys of multiculturalism and economic prosperity these boatpeople allegedly bring with them.

  3. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/work-for-the-dole-a-waste-of-money-australian-council-of-social-service-20150122-12whb9.html

    [The country’s peak community body is calling on the Abbott government to use the May budget to divert funds from the work for the dole scheme into a fund that better helps long-term unemployed people.

    In its 2015 budget submission, the Australian Council of Social Service says $350 million earmarked for work for the dole schemes over the next two years should be transferred to an Employment Pathways Fund, which would help the unemployed find work experience, training and other help to improve their job prospects.
    . . .
    This comes after funding for the “Youth Connections” program – which helped teenagers reconnect with school or work – was cut in the May 2014 budget. ]

  4. [citizen

    Posted Friday, January 23, 2015 at 11:21 am | Permalink

    It looks like the Cambodians will probably get $40 million from this government for doing nothing. ]

    The sad thing is a large percentage of this will find its way directly to Hun Sen and his cronies’ bank accounts.

    This deal will see very few benefits for the people of Cambodia and the refugees.

  5. this is the “Regional Solution” the Greens and left types have been calling for. Processing in the region and resettlement in the region and the Cambodians

    How many Greens have called for forced relocation of asylum seekers to nations wholly unsuited to refugee resettlment?

    The Green policy is to abolish all off-shore detention and to let people live and work on the Australian mainland while their claims are processed.

  6. [“The sad thing is a large percentage of this will find its way directly to Hun Sen and his cronies’ bank accounts.”]

    So what you are saying is we should cut aid payments to any country with a corrupt government?

    That really WILL reign in the Aid budget! Indonesia and PNG would certainly be off the list, not to mention pretty much every other Pacific nation

  7. Lib Unionist,

    The Iron Ore price has only fallen 45% in 12 months.

    It’s completely different. 😉

    I have heard of gapping, but not sure how it relates to this.

  8. TrueBlueAussie@110

    “The sad thing is a large percentage of this will find its way directly to Hun Sen and his cronies’ bank accounts.”


    So what you are saying is we should cut aid payments to any country with a corrupt government?

    That really WILL reign in the Aid budget! Indonesia and PNG would certainly be off the list, not to mention pretty much every other Pacific nation

    Better wind back the stupidity a bit Troothie or William will boot you out again.

  9. [So what you are saying is we should cut aid payments to any country with a corrupt government?]

    It’s not aid, though, it’s a BRIBE – from one corrupt govt to another.

  10. More from the guy who called Tony the “worlds worst salesman” on radio the other day.

    [
    He was the caller who described the Prime Minister as the “world’s worst salesman” and now Andrew McNabb has come back for a second bite, declaring it is time for Tony Abbott to step aside.

    Mr McNabb, a Liberal Party member who first confronted Mr Abbott in a talkback interview on Thursday, hit the airwaves again on Friday, telling Fairfax radio station 3AW it was time for a change in leader.
    ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-voter-andrew-mcnabb-makes-second-attack-on-worlds-worst-salesman-tony-abbott-20150123-12wl2q.html

  11. Sir Mad Cyril@116

    More from the guy who called Tony the “worlds worst salesman” on radio the other day.

    He was the caller who described the Prime Minister as the “world’s worst salesman” and now Andrew McNabb has come back for a second bite, declaring it is time for Tony Abbott to step aside.

    Mr McNabb, a Liberal Party member who first confronted Mr Abbott in a talkback interview on Thursday, hit the airwaves again on Friday, telling Fairfax radio station 3AW it was time for a change in leader.


    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-voter-andrew-mcnabb-makes-second-attack-on-worlds-worst-salesman-tony-abbott-20150123-12wl2q.html

    That’s interesting given there was speculation that the ALP had staged that. Conroy and Plibersek were named as possible instigators on twitter I think.

    Bob Ellis speculated that it was Troy Bramston. 😆

    The natives really are restless. 👿

  12. RA:

    [The Iron Ore price has only fallen 45% in 12 months.

    It’s completely different. ;-)]

    Ha!

    On less facetious note, does the RBA lose credibility by cutting the IR when (i) the ECB prints, and prints faster than expected, (ii) the Swiss unpeg, and (ii) Canadians and Danish announce surprise cuts? When the pace of change increases, is it more credible to stick with what you’ve said in the past, or to respond to those changes (assuming a cut is required – I don’t think it is in any case)?

  13. Speaking of laptop problems, I’m still having problems getting the bludger cccp greasemonkey script to run on Firefox. I had it working on Chrome, but could never get it working on Firefox no matter what I tried. Even tried looking into the script, but not much luck.

  14. Yeah I thought it might have been a stooge caller, apparently not. Wonder how he’ll go at his next branch meeting.

    Is it just me or has the picture of him with his hand on the breast of a Juliet statue just been added? He must be thrilled with that.

  15. Just heard on Sydney radio that Western Australia is suffering under 50 degree heat today the hottest record ever.

    Thank God there is no climate change happening!

  16. [A Queensland mayor comes out with a stat dec on what Seeney said – “At the meeting he said ‘I’m not having people’s property values devalued by what amounts to a semi-religious belief in climate change’”]

    Climate change is not like God. It exists whether or not you believe in it or not.

  17. SMC

    [Yeah I thought it might have been a stooge caller, apparently not. Wonder how he’ll go at his next branch meeting.]

    This stooge hypothesis was a rumour put round, that Plibersek & Conroy were implicated. Looks like he was a genuine disgruntled Lib. Also nice to see he’s keeping the leadership speculation alive.

  18. Lib U

    I think they do. Their most recent communications have been clearly in favour of leaving rates on hold, though those communications are a month old now.

    The ECB is printing only very slightly more than expectations. The Swiss and arguably the Danish are only responding to ECB QE. The Canadians were a surprise but the argument is only by analogy, not by economic linkage.

    Although headline grabbing these changes actually have remarkably little impact on the Australian economy (and, what impact there has been has been to lower the AUD and to lower longer-term interest rates, both of which are stimulatory).

    So I think the RBA might lose a little face if they abandoned their own economic analysis and cut rates because the ECB had started QE.

    The only local data of note since the RBA last met was the Labour Force data, which showed a fall in unemployment of 0.2% from the previous reported number.

  19. MTBW

    9am temp in Marble Bar was 42.3C. Long hot day ahead for those in the Pilbara.

    But it’s a pleasant morning in Perth, 24C heading for 32.

  20. [Yeah I thought it might have been a stooge caller, apparently not. Wonder how he’ll go at his next branch meeting.]
    Met with cheers and handshakes for saying what they are thinking.

  21. MTBW for asking.

    Actually low 30s in Perth at the moment…….has been this way for some time and it has not been, apart from the odd day here and there, a particular hot summer so far.

    However, as there seems to have been a gradual shift in the hottest months into late February and early March, who knows what is round the corner?

    Of course, for those few who live in what is the rest of one-third of Oz, the temperatures, especially in the N-W could be anything.

    Poor bloke died trying to walk from his bogged truck to somewhere/nowhere and the heat got him though he had covered over 20 kms.

  22. rossmcg

    I don’t know how you would stand with 50 degrees I have difficulty coping when it gets into the thirties.

    Surely there would be no one working in that temperature.

  23. Lib,

    A second thought.

    You are right that when the pace of change changes the Central is allowed or more probably obligated to change more quickly.

    Keynes had a famous quote replying to an accusation that he had flip-flopped along the lines of “When the facts change I change my opinion, what do you do sir?”

    But the underlying point here is that although there’s been some fun headlines, the actual underlying Australian stuff has been positive (or at least no worse than what prompted no change in December).

    Since December: Iron ore has dipped a bit in current days but is starting to look like it might have found a bottom. The AUD is falling further, which is good. The UE rate has fallen, which is good. Building Approvals rose strongly. The strong run up in credit provision has eased. Consumer confidence ticked a little higher.

    There’s some concern about the LNG prices which are tied to all.

    But at present, cutting rates simply because the ECB and BoC did starts to look more like peer-pressure.

    Or beggar-thy-neighbour.

  24. Tricot

    [Poor bloke died trying to walk from his bogged truck to somewhere/nowhere and the heat got him though he had covered over 20 kms.]

    How terribly sad!

    We are getting 30 degrees in Sydney regularly now where once upon a time if we got a run of three or four days with hot weather we called it a heatwave.

  25. Funny, the Government’s Cambodia debacle does not get a mention of the front page of the Telecrap. The front page is given over to a ‘sexting bombshell’ involving someone I’ve never heard off. The online sit does feature what seems to be an unbiased story about David Hicks’ conviction being ‘crushed’. It also features sport, the death of the Saudi King, plus local murder and mayhem and a sad story about a suicide.

    But if it had been Labor in power, I suspect that the Cambodia story would have had pride of place, with screaming headlines about waste and mismanagent.

  26. re: the stooge and Juliet – is there some cultural significance à la Il Porcellino at Sydney Hospital, or does he just enjoy groping bronze tits?

  27. MTBW

    It’s not everywhere, thank goodness. As Tricot said it has been a mildish summer in Perth so far, without a run of several days in the high 30s.

    As for working up North, I am sure they have regimes in place. There was a heatstroke death involving some mine workers near Newman some time recently, but they are rare thankfully.

    The death Tricot referred to was a truck driver who got bogged on a remote road and broke the cardinal rule and left his vehicle.

    I know someone who works in Newman and she days the main thing is the relentless nature of the heat. Day after day … They usually get some relief from thunderstorms but there has been little or none of that this summer.

  28. MTBW

    [We are getting 30 degrees in Sydney regularly now where once upon a time if we got a run of three or four days with hot weather we called it a heatwave.]

    Plus more humid, which I don’t love.

  29. [TrueBlueAussie

    Posted Friday, January 23, 2015 at 11:38 am | Permalink

    So what you are saying is we should cut aid payments to any country with a corrupt government?
    ]

    No, we should increase aid, BUT we should work to ensure that the money gets used as it is intended.

    We should work with people in the country (government, NGOs …) to determine what programmes are needed and supported but we should maintain control to ensure the money is used for its intended purpose.

  30. Dan Gulberry

    [ Does that include Queensland?

    Under the Abbott regime it includes Australia.]

    Yep. Worse is to come. Wait till that slush fund called ‘Direct Action’ gets off the ground…

  31. rossmcg

    [ They usually get some relief from thunderstorms but there has been little or none of that this summer.]

    Same here in Sydney the clouds build through the day but then nothing happens.

    I am lucky to be living in my own home and have air conditioning but I really feel so sorry for those living on the streets and those in high rise Housing Commission properties around the city and the west.

    Many of the residents in those places would have nothing more than an electric fan.

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