BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Public relaxation over summer, the quirks of a shallow pool of poll results, actual improvement in the government’s standing – whatever the cause, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has again recorded movement in favour of the Coalition.

Week two of BludgerTrack for 2015 adds only the latest Essential Research result to last week’s numbers from Essential and Roy Morgan. This is pretty thin gruel so far as poll aggregation goes, but nonetheless, let it be noted that BludgerTrack finds the latest result to be a lot more like the Morgan poll than Essential’s strong result for Labor last week, and thus shifts a little further the Coalition’s way. The 0.4% move on two-party preferred translates into three gains for the Coalition on the seat projection, namely one seat each in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,676 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  2. Work To Rule

    I doubt they will even think of apologising. After all, they’re happen to inflict the same kind of mental torture on AS.

    Morrison and his mates love to say that Labor started the detentions, but it was when things got so painful under Howard that the voters accepted that there must be changes. I wonder how bad things will get before we start to see the same reaction this time. I think it’s high time that Labor showed that they are not “the same” on this.

  4. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It’s going to be a bit of a slog this morning as I battle with download speed throttled back to dial-up speed as I reached my BigPond data limit. There are three free top-ups available every year but unfortunately they are doing a big system upgrade overnight and my high speed hasn’t kicked in yet.

    More waste by the look of it.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jan/22/australias-refugee-deal-with-cambodia-uncertain-as-almost-all-refuse-offer
    Europe unveils a stimulus program.
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/22/ecb-unveils-1-trillion-qe-plan-stimulate-eurozoen-economy
    Here we go! WorkChoices rise from the grave and out of the urn!.
    http://theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/penalty-rates-minimum-wage-all-bets-are-off-20150122-12vxa2.html
    Is democracy for sale on penalty rates?
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/democracy-for-sale,7283
    I think Hicks’ lawyers might have something to say about this.
    http://theage.com.au/national/david-hicks-terrorism-charges-us-admits-he-is-innocent-20150122-12vzke.html
    Another poll-driven back down by Abbott.
    http://theage.com.au/victoria/prime-minister-tony-abbott-says-east-west-link-funds-could-be-spent-on-other-victorian-projects-20150122-12w19a.html
    Mark Kenny and Liberal Party mutiny talk. And Abbott fronts the National Press Club on Feb 2. That’s something for him to look forward to.
    http://theage.com.au/comment/mutterings-in-unhappy-tony-abbott-ranks–is-mutiny-on-the-horizon-20150122-12vpaa.html
    More from Kenny as he picks on Abbott’s constant blaming of others.
    http://theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/questions-a-new-pm-shouldnt-have-to-answer-20150122-12w4xh.html
    Abbott has lost the respect of a number of back benchers. It’s a good read.
    http://theaimn.com/backbench-revolt-looming/
    Somewhere in the multiverse Abbott is not as unpopular as cancer.
    https://newmatilda.com/2015/01/22/somewhere-multiverse-tony-abbott-not-unpopular-cancer

  5. Section 2 . . .

    Ah! The finest education money can buy.
    http://smh.com.au/nsw/royal-commission-to-publicly-examine-sydney-private-school-knox-grammar-over-child-sexual-abuse-20150122-12w0kw.html
    Australia is very much going backwards on renewables investment, bucking the worldwide trend.
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/going-backwards-australias-renewable-energy-bucks-world-trend,7285
    Abbott and Abetz order a sweeping review of APS “work cultures”.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/aps-work-cultures-in-the-spotlight-20150122-12w3kb.html
    The 29 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/01/22/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-175/
    A public denial from Prince Andrew.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/prince-andrew-publicly-denies-sex-slave-claims-in-davos-20150122-12wdbz.html
    Is Morrison a megalomaniac or what?
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/strong-welfare-cop-scott-morrisons-new-selfproclaimed-title-20150121-12vkqw.html
    David Rowe presents Toxic Tony.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    Alan Moir at the Queensland border.
    http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html?selectedImage=1
    Nice work from Pat Campbell on the LNP infighting.
    http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20141123-1t21q.html
    Ouch! That was a hard slog. And BigPond still hasn’t sped me up. it could take all day they just told me via Live Chat.

  6. WTR – what a tragedy that would be for the sneering Janet A in the Australian who loves to refer to him as a “convicted terrorist”, which is not even legally accurate.

    Of course had he fought for the Northern Alliance against the Taliban (the then government of Afghanistan) he certainly would have been breaking Australian law at the time.

  9. lizzie
    I’m not having a good run with IT this week. Looks like I’ll be doing a bit of catch up work around the property today instead of being with the laptop!

  14. The National Rifle Association must be feeling proud that yet again a toddler has fired a fatal shot from a gun left in an ‘open’ location:

    [A TODDLER in Florida is dead after finding his father’s .380-calibre handgun in the family’s car and shooting himself, officials say.

    KALEB Ahles, 2, was in the car on Wednesday afternoon while his parents Kevin Ahles and Christina Nigro, both 23, loaded boxes as they prepared to move, according to Pinellas County Sheriff’s deputies.

    Somehow, the boy opened the glove compartment, where his father had stored the gun.
    The child lifted the gun, turned it so that it faced his chest and squeezed the trigger, the Tampa Bay Times reported…

    The sheriff said the parents won’t face criminal charges – no one could punish them more than they’ll punish themselves, he said.

    ]

    http://www.news.com.au/world/breaking-news/florida-toddler-fatally-shoots-himself/story-e6frfkui-1227194025282</a.

    So would the parents face criminal charges if a neighbour's child had been killed this way or would it be just 'bad luck'?

  15. As per Mark Kenny’s piece

    [For the first time since 2009 when he was bundled out of the leadership, Malcolm Turnbull’s name is being mentioned positively by influential figures on the party’s right – something that was inconceivable not so long ago.

    Asked if conservatives really would consider lining up behind the moderate Turnbull now, one right-wing figure said events had already gone beyond left-right divisions. ]

    As mentioned yesterday, the Turnbull/Bishop ticket may indeed be on the money

  17. guytaur

    Eager though I am to search the shallows of Erica’s mind, I cannot bear to listen to his delivery. Remid me not to stand for the Senate while he’s around 😆

  18. If it is a Turnbull/Bishop ticket, expect it next week BEFORE the Qld election. (or Bishop/Turnbull)

    If it is a Morrison ticket they will hold off until after the Qld election

  20. The question needs to be asked – is the current government serious about strategies to prevent vulnerable young Muslims from becoming radicalised or do they see a political advantage in stories of Australian jihadists overseas?

    [Many Muslims say more needs to be done to prevent young people from becoming radicalised in Australia.

    Last year, the Government allocated $13.4 million to fund programs aimed at preventing young Australians becoming involved with extremist groups.

    But some Muslim leaders say the community is yet to see any of that money in action.

    Mr El-Matrah warned the threat of radicalisation would grow unless it was tackled at a community level.

    “Unfortunately, in the last two or three years, we’ve moved away from community based approach, and getting the community itself to work on issues of radicalisation,” he said.

    “Communities are being quite open to doing that work and there’s been some very solid work to date.”

    “Unfortunately, the Government has withdrawn resources from that area, which I think is a mistake, and is contrary to what is happening in almost every other part of the world when it comes to radicalisation – from Muslim countries that may be labelled developing nations, to places like the US and the UK, where community approaches seem to be now the most important approach to take.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-22/australian-muslim-groups-condemn-use-of-slaves/6035796

  24. The other contribution by Mark kenny. Wow what insight!

    [To underestimate the depth of ill-feeling toward her could be politically fatal to Abbott.

    Ultimately, Abbott is likely to survive. Short of falling on his sword for the good of the party (and government), it is unlikely that his colleagues will pull the pin on him.

    But nothing is certain. The real lessons of 2010 are don’t rely on history, and don’t marginalise the partyroom.]

  26. Morning all.

    Why on earth is the govt talking IR reform so close to a state election? Are they deliberately trying to make things harder for the LNP?

  27. They are pretty quick on the uptake –

    [ Smuggling Drugs Across The Mexican Border? There’s A Drone For That

    Worried about the honesty of your drug mule?

    Concerned that your smugglers will demand higher and higher minimum wage?

    There’s a drone for that.

    Once again technology has enabled ‘progress’ as AP reports police in a Mexican border city said Wednesday that a drone overloaded with illicit methamphetamine crashed into a supermarket parking lot.

    …The AP also reported this week a man was sentenced to 15 years in prison for attempting to fly a drone laden with cell phones, tobacco and marijuana into a maximum-security prison in South Carolina in 2014.]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-22/smuggling-drugs-across-mexican-border-theres-drone

  28. [ victoria
    Posted Friday, January 23, 2015 at 8:25 am | Permalink

    The other contribution by Mark kenny. Wow what insight! ]

    kenny has worked out abbott is not popular – whatever next?

  31. citizen @ 14

    [So would the parents face criminal charges if a neighbour’s child had been killed this way or would it be just ‘bad luck’?]

    Being Florida, the parents would be lauded for finding a new way to remotely assert the ‘stand your ground’ laws.

  32. HoJo’s soul mate. Pretty rich for a multi billionaire to be handing out this advice.

    [“America’s lifestyle expectations are far too high and need to be adjusted so we have less things and a smaller, better existence,” Greene said in an interview today at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

    ……..Greene, who flew his wife, children and two nannies on a private jet plane to Davos for the week ]

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-21/billionaire-greene-goes-long-on-u-s-while-bemoaning-jobs-crisis.html

  33. Paul Kennedy has been the fill-in on 24 over the summer break. He is wasted in his normal role as sports commentator.

    He is one of the few ABC journos who knows what to ask and asks. He puts the likes of the “real” political journos like Sales n Ulmann to shame.

    Through firm and dispassionate questioning he just showed the shallowness of Abetz’s mind and character.

    Summary of Abetz: we know nothing, we think nothing, we have handed IR over to the Productivity Commission and Fair Work Australia, it has nothing to do with us, we are innocent.

  34. I wonder if they have laws that prevent you leaving unattended toddlers in car seats while off on shopping or some other jaunt?

  35. What happened to the JBishop ascendancy over the holidays? Is she destined to remain the loyal deputy for the rest of her political career? Or is Kenny today talking through his hat?

    [Mark Kenny
    Backbenchers are so fed up with the PM’s backflips, they’re even talking about Malcolm Turnbull as the man who might save the government.]

  40. Victoria @ 38 – that’s highly unlikely. Far more likely is a change to the current wording. Specifically, the current wording has “a period of stability” as explicitly the best policy. So, they’ll need to change that wording first unless there’s some emergency or very unexpected data between now and February 3

    The CPI data on January 28 is about the only data big enough to change that analysis.

  44. Victoria – Shane is in the minority. It’s him and Bill Evans from Westpac.

    Most of the more highly rated analysts disagree. Importantly, including Paul Bloxham, who is ex-RBA and probably has the best internal contacts of anyone at the moment.

  46. Sorry – that probably sounded a bit brusque – I apologise. This is exactly in my professional sphere.

    And although there are a couple of people who think a rate cut will happen, they are in the minority (albeit far more interesting to interview on TV).

    The media does a disservice here, because the vast bulk of people expect not much to happen. Which makes for a boring interview, but gives the listeners the impression that action is far more likely than it actually is.

  48. Brisbane has had nearly 100mm (4 inches) of rain since 9:00 yesterday, most of it falling in the last 3 hours. It must be great fun getting to work up there this morning.

  49. GG – yes, that’s why I say “highly unlikely” not “impossible”.

    But the Canadians are oil exporters. Iron ore may be falling in price but it’s been more stable than oil, which has lost 60% of it’s price in about six months.

  50. [Federal Environment Minister Greg Hunt has ruled out selling the Malabar Headland, declaring the “cathedral of nature” will stay in public hands forever.

    Mr Hunt’s promise came just hours after Fairfax Media revealed the findings of a report commissioned by the Abbott government, which said the Commonwealth-owned land was “surplus to requirements” and would generate a “significant return” if sold.

    Mr Hunt appeared on 2GB radio on Thursday to “categorically rule out, on behalf of the government, any proposal or plan to sell, divest or develop” all or part of the headland.

    “It will be kept in public hands in perpetuity,” he said, adding that the government was working to return a disabled horseriding group that was evicted from the land under the former Labor government.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/abbott-government-rules-out-sale-of-malabar-headland-20150122-12w3wn.html

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