The mad scramble to catch up on the surprisingly early Queensland election has left BludgerTrack unattended to, despite the publication last week of the first polls of the year on voting intention from Essential Research and Roy Morgan, together with a bonus Morgan phone poll on leadership ratings (supplemented by these findings on preferred Liberal and Labor leader, which find Tony Abbott is now in third place behind Julie Bishop as well as Malcolm Turnbull). My normal practice of updating this overnight on Wednesday/Thursday will resume henceforth.
The latest reading records a pretty solid shift to the Coalition since the last result in mid-December. In comparison with the in-depth state-level reading I put together after The Australian published Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns at the end of the year, the Coalition is up two seats in New South Wales and one each in Victoria and Queensland. But if you want to hold off for polling not conducted during the summer break before taking the results too seriously, I won’t judge you.
Closely inspect the scatterplot on the sidebar (located lower down than usual thanks to the Queensland election poll tracker) and you will observe the disparity between the results from Essential Research and Roy Morgan, the latter of which appears twice as I break it down into two separate results to reflect the fact that it is conducted over two weekends. As you can see, the trendline seeks to split the difference between the two sets of results, and considers last year’s polling to be old news. The two pollsters’ headline two-party figures were in fact much the same, but came out very differently once the meaty bias adjustment to the notoriously pro-Labor Morgan series was applied. Similar caveats should be applied to the Greens vote, which is now in single figures for the first time since who knows when. This may well be accurate for all I know, but the wisest course would be to consider the jury out for the time being.
The leadership ratings are arguably a bit more interesting, since they encompass a result from Roy Morgan’s low-sample but otherwise high quality phone polling, together with the monthly reading from Essential Research. Both leaders are found to be up quite substantially on net approval, consistent with the notion that the summer break tends to soften the public mood. Bill Shorten had remarkably static ratings throughout 2014, outside of a bump in his favour following the budget, but on the current reading at least he’s moved into the black. Tony Abbott has also moved in a positive direction for the first time since Coalition polling started heading south again in October. On preferred prime minister though, the leaders’ gains cancel out, leaving Shorten’s lead much as it was before.
Nicholas
I agree that is needed. It could happen now because drug money is also known to find its way to funding terrorism.
A fact the West should start treating seriously
Nicholas at 49
And the Australian Government isn’t sharing and disseminating this information because …?
sprocket
You have reminded me that there are two kinds of journalists – the real ones, and the “reporters” who just repeat the rubbish handed out in press releases. The real ones, who look for the facts behind the facade, deserve their positions.
Applications for government funding requires more analysis than most “journalists” give us.
sprocket_
[
The New York Times is a seriously good newspaper]
One of the joys of the internet was finding I could read great papers from around the world. Signed up early with the NYT when they first went online . The deal being the first round of sign ups would never pat any future fees if they were introduced.
All in all it was pretty much goodbye local yokel journos from me. An Australian was on to this sort of thing pretty early (1997) and set up a great site called The Paperboy. It had links to hundreds of papers listed country by country and which ones.
[The only way to stop drug trafficking being a vile criminal trade is to make it legal to take the criminals out of it. See Alcohol prohibition.]
I agree, now you’ve convinced me with your brilliant and detailed argument (sorry I was onboard largely before your argument) but now all we need is the detail, harm minimization plan and international agreement and we are home. Hopefully you’ll have that finished by Monday.
victoria:
I never cease to be amazed at some of the stuff I hear about what shockjock radio announcers come out with!
WWP
See Alcohol Prohibition. Its been done. No need to reinvent the wheel
confessions
Yeah John michael seems to think that paying private health and education fees is all it takes for these educations to be self sufficient
Oops
Educations – institutions
Who are you to judge who deserves to live wwp? The quality of mercy and recognising the capacity for rehabilitation are the hallmarks of a decent society.
[The people most responsible for drug-trafficking are in powerful positions in governments, militaries, police forces, and criminal gangs around the world. The people who actually carry the stuff and take the most risk are at a low level and get a tiny fraction of the value of the trade. When we think of those people as “vile human beings” who deserve life imprisonment or even execution, we play into the hands of the big fish.]
Yeah a bit simplistic isn’t it?
Of the Bali 9, how many exactly are on death row (now once you ignore some of the appeal nonsense)? So doesn’t that suggest the Indonesian justice system has got it largely right. I’m pretty sure the 2 on death row are called ring leaders for a reason. Although I think Lawrence is particularly lucky.
Interesting question for the AFP have they got information about who the drugs came from and who were the kingpins back in Australia? If not then my sympathy for the 9 diminishes even more and I didn’t start with much.
“@smh: .@JulieBishopMP skips @LNPQLD election campaign launch. http://t.co/64rZgXbmYU #auspol”
Is this the end of the Bishop push to be PM by the likes of Peter Van Onselen?
WWP
You seem to have a callous disregard for human life in that post at 61
“Brooksy
@wrb330
“Canteen” had funding removed. But thats just kids with cancer, they cant vote so f**k em hey @TonyAbbottMHR
@Gatorau @randlight @gippo72
This was done 2 days before Xmas and has really upset me plus a lot of people on twitter What next? and not a peep out of MSM
guytaur @62
Would it be possible that the Queensland Government does not want anyone from the poison Federal Liberal Government anywhere near their campaign.
[Who are you to judge who deserves to live wwp? The quality of mercy and recognising the capacity for rehabilitation are the hallmarks of a decent society.]
Coming from most others on this board I would take that as a misguided but otherwise intelligent comment. Coming from you just confuses me.
Misguided because obviously can’t read very well and failed to notice they were sentenced to death in Indonesia and I’m not an Indonesian judge. Misguided because I’m opposed to the death penalty and as an Australian citizen would actively opposed my Country executing anyone including terrorists (the right always seem to find it in their heart to find exclusions to their objection to the death penalty). Misguided because I’m not even supporting the Indonesian death penalty, although I think within there legal structure they probably have the bali 9 about right, if not a bit on the kind side. I’m just saying they don’t get to the top of my emotional response list and aren’t going to even if they do get executed.
Just one example I have more sympathy for the guy in Saudi Arabia than I do for the Bali 9.
[WWP
You seem to have a callous disregard for human life in that post at 61]
Maybe … but given you are the caring one how many people died in the last 24 hours and how much sympathy do you feel for the balance excluding the six in Indonesia given your limitless compassion. What you don’t even know how many? You haven’t chased down every single injustice on the whole planet? Seems like a very inconsistent regard for human life to me.
[57
guytaur
WWP
See Alcohol Prohibition. Its been done. No need to reinvent the wheel]
But it’s not that simple, is it? It might make sense to decriminalize the use of cannabis. But what about the production of synthetic cannabis? How could this be legally controlled? Even if it were possible, there would probably still be organised black marketing of lookalikes. Perhaps you could make a case to legalize cocaine, but what would you do about crack? And what about ice? How would it be possible to expect doctors and pharmacies to have responsibility for prescribing and marketing such a dangerous and addictive substance?
We can already see the alcohol industry exercising political influence through the funding of the LNP and organised lobbying. Do we want our political parties to also be funded by opium growers and refiners?
WWP
I am arguing the long term case to stop the death penalty and to reduce death by drug in this country.
That is compassion. As I am not a drug addict I make no judgement about the decision process made by people smuggling drugs in or out of Indonesia. Especially young ones.
Remember judge not lest you be judged.
[62
guytaur
“@smh: .@JulieBishopMP skips @LNPQLD election campaign launch. http://t.co/64rZgXbmYU #auspol”
Is this the end of the Bishop push to be PM by the likes of Peter Van Onselen?]
Abbott cannot go…so nor can any other ranking LNP leader, as this would simply accentuate the reasons for Abbott’s exclusion. It’s one out, all out for what is, after all, just a media stunt.
[64
mari]
This is one of the most deplorable things I’ve heard!
briefly
All said before. What has happened. Things have stayed illegal and the drugs get more dangerous.
Stop the business model and the profit motive to make more addictive and dangerous drugs goes away.
We cannot undo what has been done we can only limit the future damage.
Ending prohibition stopped the progression of crime involved. Same with drugs.
The evidence is there and yes it is that simple.
mari
Nothing this govt does, surprises me
[Remember judge not lest you be judged.]
It is the day for church but I didn’t think church was your thing?
Of course we are entitled to judge.
And I support you in your crusade against the death penalty and for the decriminalisation of all drugs. Although will we still have prescription drugs or are you advocating an actual free for all where I can pop into woolworths and by any drug that can be manufactured?
mari
[“Canteen” had funding removed. But thats just kids with cancer, they cant vote so f**k em hey @TonyAbbottMHR]
What a disgusting thing to do.
Has anyone asked Abbott how much he spends on travel alone.
Someone should let the SMH know about that.
Briefly 71
Also “Men under Stress” support have had their funding taken away, always the poor and vulnerable and as I said not a peep out of MSM Thank heavens for SM and blogs where at least it can be brought out into the open
WWP
You are very confused. Prescription drugs are legal.
MTBW 75
It is disgusting and I have linked to smh and guardian but doubt if anything will be said
MTBW 75
It is disgusting and I have linked to smh and guardian but doubt if anything will be said
mari @ 76
Callous and lacking in any compassion at all but then again we already knew that.
Very cute wwp.
mari
Can you get all of your twitter friends to bombard the SMH?
[You are very confused. Prescription drugs are legal.]
Not if you don’t have a prescription my friend.
WWP
When we tallk government legislating we say prescription drugs are legal.
Stop trying to discredit me and instead discredit the argument. Of course you cannot because the evidence from Alcohol Prohibition is very very clear.
mari:
Quite a few human services agencies have been defunded. Over the past few months I’ve come into quite a few people whose jobs had been canned or were soon to be canned as a result of federal funding cuts.
The only thing the ABbott govt has excelled at is increasing the unemployment rate!
[Not if you don’t have a prescription my friend.]
Urgghhh, Fran can tidy this up for me. My point is essentially if heroin was a prescription drug you’d probably still have an international smuggling and blackmarket in heroin. Although it would probably have higher quality heroin and much lower profit margins on the street, because you could always steal the proper stuff.
WWP
Same argument applies to the opium Tasmania grows openly in fields.
Yet we manage
[Stop trying to discredit me and instead discredit the argument. Of course you cannot because the evidence from Alcohol Prohibition is very very clear.]
Alcohol is pretty much a free for all notwithstanding some really backward countries having antiquated retail regulation for alcohol and of course age restrictions and criminal offences.
What is you model for pot, heroin and cocaine. Would you have pot in supermarkets, or would you have it in the same category as heroin and cocaine and have special regulated ‘hard drug stores’? Would you allow advertising “prices slashed this week on all heroin products, buy more than $500 worth and you get a free Jim Beam.”
Heroin is quite a simple drug am I going to be allowed to grow my own poppies and make my own? Can my 13 year old daughter have a heroin stand beside a main road?
WWP
Alcohol is not a free for all. As Sydney lockout laws prove. However its not just that. We have travel warning visiting Bali warning about alcohol quality. We do not have here as production is regulated very well
[Same argument applies to the opium Tasmania grows openly in fields.]
Given how illegal the drug is I must confess i did find driving through fields of Tasmanian poppies a little surprising no real security at all. There was a story of kids popping into a field and grabbing one poppy to make tea with and it killing them but I am not sure whether that is true or not. Sounded far fetched, bit like the stories at work of the poppy seeds on some bread rolls giving a failed drug test result. But maybe they are all true, i know taking codine triggers a failed drug test until they get your sample to the lab and confirm it is just commercial codine.
confessions
[The only thing the ABbott govt has excelled at is increasing the unemployment rate!]
And bringing even more concern for the families of kids who have cancer for God’s sake.
How low will this Government go?
I think we should all argue for the Parliamentarians to pay for the costs of the number of trips they take sometimes with their partner and send the saved money to the suffering.
[Alcohol is not a free for all. As Sydney lockout laws prove]
Dear me i give up, I was asking serious questions that would need to be answered before you could decriminalise drugs and all you have is ‘look over there’ and slogans Tony abbott might come up with.
From previous thread.
bemused@1968 on Morgan: 54.5-45.5 to Labor | The Poll Bludger
WWP
Truth is a free for all legal drug market would cause less harm than having them illegal and having criminals in charge of the production adding washing powder and other substances.
That is the point. It is only you saying it will be a free for all because you want to dismiss the facts.
Pup campaign launch on now
Bad start for PUP. Labor is not selling assets as part of this election.
[That is the point. It is only you saying it will be a free for all because you want to dismiss the facts.]
I don’t want to dismiss any facts and I standby my free for all characterisation of the availability of alcohol notwithstanding its regulatory framework which I acknowledged previously.
I didn’t get into street drinking and silly laws in NSW because I think they are largely an irrelevant and stupid distraction from the real issues.
Street and public drinking rules are very silly, I still remember having a beer at a cafe at 10 am in a little French town but we weren’t really discussing that issue we were discussing the post decriminalisation regulation of drugs. Correction I was asking you about it and you clearly hadn’t ever even contemplated it and perhaps don’t even understand the question. And so I return to my previous position of giving up, I have some book shelves to move and I wonder if I can convince my better half that doing it with a beer at this early hour of Sunday would be a nice ‘french’ way to move furniture. Sadly I think her French views only apply in France.
WWP
You can argue that there should be more controls on alcohol and I agree with you.
However that does not change the lessons of prohibition. They are crystal clear. Illegal means money for criminals.
[How low will this Government go?]
It’s too scary to imagine.
The government will go as low as the Senate will let it.