GhostWhoVotes tweets that tomorrow’s Australian carries a Newspoll from Ashgrove, from a sample of 600, which gives Campbell Newman something of a morale boost in showing him trailing Labor’s Kate Jones in his seat of Ashgrove by a margin of just 51-49, from primary votes of 47% for both Newman and Jones, 5% for the Greens and 1% for “others”. Furthermore, Newman is credit with something he hasn’t seen much of lately, namely a positive net approval rating, with approval at 51% and disapproval at 42%. However, Jones leads him as “better local member” 52-44, though under the circumstances this measure is a bit hard to read.
Pooping the LNP party, apparently, is electorate-level Galaxy polling from the Courier-Mail showing “massive swings of up to 12 per cent against the Newman Government across southeast Queensland”, and the LNP to be “wiped out across north Queensland”. It would seem this includes a very close result in the Townsville seat of Mundingburra and a big Labor lead in Greenslopes in Brisbane’s inner south. Stay tuned for more on that one.
UPDATE: The Galaxy polling for the Courier-Mail encompasses eight individual electorates, and while the report offers nothing on how it was conducted, I think it’s safe to assume it followed the usual format of electorate-level polling from Galaxy in hitting samples of around 550 by automated phone polling. The results are remarkably consistent in showing swings to Labor of around 10%, and are thus actually well in line with the statewide Galaxy phone poll of last week which had the LNP leading 52-48 – which is to say they don’t quite live up to the Courier-Mail’s “Palaszczuk is on track to become premier” front page hype. Only two-party results are provided, which are as follows:
Barron River (LNP 9.5%): 50-50.
Cairns (LNP 8.9%): 53-47 to Labor.
Greenslopes (LNP 2.5%): 59-41 to Labor.
Mulgrave (Labor 1.1%): 61-39 to Labor.
Mundingburra (LNP 10.2%): 51-49 to Labor.
Pumicestone (LNP 12.1%): 52-48 to LNP.
Thuringowa (LNP 6.7%): 52-48 to Labor.
Townsville (LNP 4.8%): 58-42 to Labor.
ausdavo,
Couple of questions on your estimate.
1. Where is this evidence of 8 KAP/Indi seats
2. Why do you assume these seats would be taken from the LNP and not from Labor Party “wins” (aka dropping Labor down 4 seats)
3. How do you figure Labor will win with a 48% TPP coming from opposition with only 9 seats?
It’s looney tunes level stuff mate. I mean there is optimism, but then there is this.
loopy true blue,
you show immense ignorance.
When looking at an opinion poll – that is the ONLY estimate you can use. There is no evidence!
At least I don’t ignore the polling estimates like you do and presume something entirely different.
Present polling has the LNP on 47/48 % NOT as you are trying to claim – the ALP. The ALP estimate is 52/53 %.
You are the one with “looney tunes” because you choose to ignore the polling. I don’t – if the polling changes so do my estimates!
I explained very clearly my reasons why the ALP is able to come from 7 seats at the last election to help reduce the LNP to less than 45 seats. If you can’t read well or you have trouble with statistics then please feel free to visit me in Hervey Bay.
I’m a retired former lecturer in Economics and statistics and happy to give you some free lessons! Personally, I doubt you’re up to improving your education,
Just in – Sunday Mail:
“Campbell Newman promises to shout drivers licences and uni fees in bid to win over youth”.
He must be desperate to have come up with these two measures!
It’s 10.00 here off to bed now.
See what the “news” is in the morning.
ak I think your about right in your assessment of 54-46. Interesting how it might have turned out if Labor had been more aggressive in opposition.
It’s a bit silly to say the ALP has 0% chance when there have been 50/50 polls in recent times. I’d say their chance is clearly less than 50% but it’s not 0%.
[the Opposition Leader has already stated she and her party will not deal with the cross bench to form a minority government.]
And the LNP have said the same. But if there is a hung parliament one of the major parties will.
[a) there is not enough experience for the ALP to be in government after this election]
There was “not enough experience” in the LNP last time and that made no difference. This is an argument that governments always run and there is no evidence of it having the slightest impact.
[b) the stigma still out there about the previous Bligh government, which unanimously in the community was a very poor government will see the LNP just hang on.
Not that Newman deserves to be re-elected.]
Certainly this is the biggest factor in favour of the LNP. If this were a second or later term goverent they would already be toast.
[Unless the ALP start bringing out detailed economic policy then they will be lucky to get to 46 2PP
Palaszczuk performance in Gladstone today showed that she clearly is not ready to be Premier.]
Oppositions are never required to bring out “detailed economic plans” and they never do. This does not stop (some) oppositions from winning.
Some additional info on the Galaxy seat polling. Seems it was a sample of 600+ per seat.
http://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/queensland-state-election-2015/opposition-targets-far-north-seats-as-labor-a-chance-to-win-back-electorates/story-fnr8w7hb-1227187680020
[Opposition targets Far North seats as Labor a chance to win back electorates
Anika Hume The Cairns Post January 17, 2015 8:00AM
LABOR could sweep all four Far North seats in a huge voter backlash which leaves the LNP’s sitting members fighting for their political survival.
On a two-party preferred basis, an exclusive Cairns Post poll conducted by Galaxy this week has predicted the ALP can steal back its traditional strongholds of Barron River and Cairns while easily retaining Mulgrave.
Big swings are needed for both Cairns and Barron River to change hands, but support for Labor returning to pre-2012 levels has left the seats hanging in the balance.
The Greens also have a part to play and are yet to announce their voting preferences which traditionally have gone to Labor.
The poor polling has been brushed aside by the region’s LNP representatives.
“There’s only one poll that counts, and that’s election day,” said Barron River MP Michael Trout.
More than 600 voters were polled in Barron River, Cairns and Mulgrave electorates on Tuesday this week, with results showing a boost to primary support for Labor since the last election by 14 to 17 percentage points in each seat. A similar poll in Townsville showed similar swings – enough to return all three of that city’s seats to Labor.
If the FNQ poll rings true, Cairns MP Gavin King will lose to Rob Pyne thanks to a pro-Labor swing of 11.9 per cent, taking Labor’s support to 53 per cent.]
[Thank you, although some of the credit belongs to Akaike’s information criterion (I totally know what that means, BTW – anyone who says different is a liar.)]
Ha ha ha ha ha ha.
What?
A few comments on the election
First: The sitting member factor will NOT be especially large since so many have had just one term and also because the swing in 2012 was so massive a lot of those LNP elected were less than stellar alsorans.
Second: I rather feel the electorate wants boring. Newman and Abbott are conflated in peoples minds (just as Anna Bligh and Julia Gillard were conflated). There has been too much change and the electorate is ineasy. Surprisingly I think this election boring is good – safe, no boat rocking, status quo.
Thirdly: There are always local issues and I would not be especially confident of Ferny Grove. Similarly some of the local LNP members will have a bit of support.
Leroy Lynch @107
I think the minor parties would be wise to run the strategy of “Vote 1 us, number all your boxes in whichever preferences you like.” rather than go for just vote 1.
Newman is offering free degrees and free licenses to under 25s without demerit points.
Don’t know what sort of costing other than everything coming out of “Strong Choices”
Raaraa@111
How is that going to be funded?
Selling everything not bolted down, I suspect. Or just backflipping on it later, more likely.
[“Present polling has the LNP on 47/48 % NOT as you are trying to claim – the ALP. The ALP estimate is 52/53 %.”]
No it doesn’t.
Look to the right of your screen… there is a nice little graph with the numbers…
LNP 51% Labor 49%
Or are we playing opposites today? If so I think your analysis was excellent and well thought out and Anna Watsername will win it easily(heh).
[“How is that going to be funded?”]
Talking about funding….
Queensland is $80B in debt left by the last Labor Government. Anna P has been making a lot of spending promises lately, but isn’t selling anything so where is the money coming from?
Apparantly her bold new plan to deal with this crisis is to use money that assets generate to pay down the debt. Sounds good right? EXCEPT… where does the money come from to pay for the stuff that the assets were paying for that you have now taken away? Ummm…. errr… quick throw that on the Credit Card!
So she’ll be paying off the debt with the asset money, while putting more debt on the CC to pay for the stuff that the asset money was paying for. Absolutely. Genius.
And yes… Queenslanders take this $80B deadly serious.. we have no AAA credit rating and one of the worst debt to individual rating in Australia.
The very same people who say that the swing against the LNP will be contained under 10% are the same people who claim to be professors and experts on tracking down polling.
Most polls for the past 12 months have pointed to a swing against the LNP in the order of 13-14%, this is a fact.
There’s certainly more of a case to say “explain where the money is coming from” to Newman than there is to Palaszczuk.
He’s the one who has said “if the price isn’t good enough we promise we won’t lease the assets”. If so, where does all the money come from for your promises, Newman ???
Methinks you might be a teller of porkies. Hang on, I already know you do!
eg Newman 2012 “we will create jobs”.
Result: given population increase of 215,000 in Newman’s time as Premier there are 50,000 less jobs today than there should be JUST to break even.
Worse still the jobs that our growth has created are virtually all part time.
For those 215,000 new citizens just 6000 full time jobs!
Well done “CANT DO”. (sarcasm)
Didn’t someone here established that the $80b is a gross overestimation? Word on the street is that the figure now being pushed is $100b.
[First: The sitting member factor will NOT be especially large since so many have had just one term and also because the swing in 2012 was so massive a lot of those LNP elected were less than stellar alsorans.]
Maybe there’s something in the second part of that, but the first part of that is precisely the point. The question is, to what extent might the margin from 2012 be misleading with respect to a member’s prospects this time? If the member came to parliament at the last election, did not have the advantage of time spent working their turf as their full-time job in 2012, but does have it now, the answer may well be “somewhat misleading”. But if they’re long-established members, they had that advantage last time and continue to have it now, so there is little reason to expect their swing will be any different from anybody else’s. Marginal returns from the advantage of incumbency would appear to diminish very quickly.
2012 was so unusual and besides its QLD making it impossible to predict outcomes with the polling this close. I think there will be surprises for both sides on the 31st.
A message I’ve received from a former Qld Health Doctor.
Come on Newman supporters – justify his lies compared with these facts!
“David —
I am a sub-specialty trained anesthetist, and worked for Queensland Health for many years. I resigned on April 30 last year, as a direct result of the government’s introduction of unfair contracts for senior doctors.
This is my story.
Working as a doctor, or anywhere in the health system or hospitals is incredibly rewarding but very hard. Let alone trying to do so with fewer resources, less staff and worse conditions.
People are being forced to work tired, because there are no other options. Patients need us. But what they need more are alert, unstressed health professionals who are supported by their government to provide the best possible care.
Campbell Newman, Lawrence Springborg and the LNP have devastated Queensland Health over the past three years. 5,000 health workers have been sacked. “Shorter” waiting lists are really just a sleight of hand. In reality, patients are far down their list of concerns.
My story is just one amongst many. I’m sure you have a friend or family member who has a story from their own perspective. As a patient in need of care. As a health worker doing their best against the odds.
In just two weeks we can choose to change the direction of our state’s public health system. I believe it’s time we started putting patients first.
Yours sincerely,
Dr. Nicole Fairweather
Anaesthetist”
[“Broadwater was only ALP due to an extremely popular local ALP MP in PK Croft, who had a very high personal vote in the community,”]
The major problem with Ausdavo’s analysis other than the clear Labor bias is the fact that it assumes seats held pre-2012 were “Labor Seats” because Labor held them for a long time and therefore they are natural left leaning seats while ignoring the piss poor Lib/Nat low altitude flyer opposition that has been the mainstay of Queensland politics until Campbell Newman came on the scene.
If we are to make that assumption than Governments would never change hands we’d be stuck in an endless loop of Labor Governments despite Queensland voters being the most conservative in the country.
Oh yes did I mention… Anna P has no chance. She will never be Premier. She can go and hold hands with Springborg and start a new Wish I was, but could never be Premier club.
True Blue much of what you say has a strong element of truth. Your last para may be more hope than reality though. One of those people has a chance of becoming premier.
Annastacia has a better chance than Springborg, Foley, McGowan or O’Brien.
Good ole true blue
“The major problem with Ausdavo’s analysis other than the clear Labor bias”.
Mine prediction is based on statistical possibility not bias. When I put personal opinions about Newman, that’s biased, but also formed based on facts.
You show a hell of a lot more bias, because you choose to ignore the “statistical possibility” that presently exists. You even twist it to pre-predict opinion polls which haven’t yet occurred. Now that is clear evidence of bias.
You may well be closer to the actual result than I will be on election night but for you to be so, it will be “luck” not analysis. Sadly though, if you are lucky, the Queensland population will be the poorer and the State will continue to slide under CAN’T DO.
Now that is my biased opinion! But it’s still based on what we already know about CAN’T DO and which you choose to ignore.
124
I would think that she has a reasonable chance this time and a good chance at staying ALP leader in the event of a defeat, barring late in campaign mess-ups, and then a good chance of becoming Premier next election.
However there is a good chance, despite what Newman says, that the LNP wins the election by Newman looses. Then another LNP MP has to be Premier, unless there is a new seat for Newman. It could well be Springborg who is Premier in that event.
Nichols is firming to replace Newman I feel. But Labor still has to win Ashgrove.
Sportsbet are paying odds on Primary votes for both LNP and Labor.
Less than 35.00% 13.00
35.00 – 35.99% 15.00
36.00 – 36.99% 12.00
37.00 – 37.99% 8.00
38.00 – 38.99% 7.00
39.00 – 39.99% 5.00
40.00 – 40.99% 4.00
41.00 – 41.99% 6.00
42.00 – 42.99% 8.00
43% or greater 6.00
Interestingly you can place a $100 bet on each between 40%+ and it will cost you $400 total.
If it’s 40-41% you will get a $0 return but lose no money.
41-42% you will get $200 return on your money.
42%-43% you will get $400 return on your money.
43%+ you will get $200 return on your money.
Of course it could go below 40% in which case you’ll lose the lot, but if you are risk adverse you can go from 39%+ in which case you would only lose money in the 40-41% range.
The Borg will never be Premier, Santo won’t allow it.
Oh I escaped from Nambour Hospital today, I have some health anecdotes coming later.
Yes David, Nichols is my tip to lead a minority LNP government – kept in power by several of KAP and Independents (especially Foley from Maryborough).
Such a government probably would not be able to do the asset sales so for mine that would be the best result for Queensland. Wishful thinking on my part, I know, but based on a reasonable chance given the opinion polls right now.
Here’s hoping!
Again I have noticed that some posters are wanting detailed statement from the ALP on how it will fix Queensland’s debt, please note wr’re still waiting for the same thing from the lnp, and their effort over th past 3 years have made matters far worse at an alarming rate. Check what state debt was before March 2012 to what it is now.
Anyone heard of bernice kelly?
My family are voting in cairns and can’t get any information on her views
Graham @ 132
Here’s a lead to Cairns Post last year. In the comments section a Bernice Kelly has two postings.
http://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/cairns/i20-summit-calls-for-more-strategies-to-unlock-billions-in-indigenous-tribal-wealth/story-fnjpusyw-1227065834168
@ Ausdavo
Apart from the 2 seats KAP currently have which other seats do you think they can win. Would not be surprised if they lost Mt Isa to the ALP and only end up with 1 seat.
BTW every 2nd ad today has been a PUP election ad. Clive going on a spending spree.
Aaron,
I believe they’ll win their two.
Plus I’m tipping Hopper in Nanango (has been member for next door Condamine in which his son is now the KAP candidate).
On election night I’m also watching Callide, Gregory, Burdekin & Gympie as the strong seats for KAP if their vote firms up.
ausdavo
The Katter guy in Gympie will poll well, maybe enough to win given the LNP infighting there over the last year or so.
[“Again I have noticed that some posters are wanting detailed statement from the ALP on how it will fix Queensland’s debt, please note wr’re still waiting for the same thing from the lnp”]
Not sure how you missed it mate, it’s the Number 1 issue of the campaign.
$47 Billion Dollars in Asset Lease(or Sales if you want).
Now we have that out the way, wheres Labor getting the money for it’s promises? And how are they going to pay off the $80B in debt they left last time?
It’s not the LNP that doesn’t have a plan(whether you like the idea or not, it’s still a plan) it’s Labor. The paper shuffling announcement they did the other day was laughable if it wasn’t so serious.
Just saw your mention of PUP advertisements. Heavy ads of the kind PUP does can be very persuasive in country and outer suburban seats.
A lot of seats have LNP, ALP, Green, PUP and slightly less for KAP, Family First and One Nation. This could have a worse effect on the LNP primary vote than the ALP primary vote. Where KAP or PUP get in front of the LNP or ALP they may stay there with those prefs that flow to each other (KAP or PUP).
Especially with exhausted preferences the LNP could bleed badly.
Greens are a lot tighter for the ALP compared with the others for the LNP so any close contests could be interesting.
You’re no “trueblue” mate. You’re happy to sell out you’re working Queenslanders to Adani Coal Lies.
You should ask yourself “when is a plan NOT a plan ????”
When the LNP say “if we don’t get offered enough we won’t do it”.
You’re also the one who should ask yourself “Not sure how you missed it mate, it’s the Number 1 issue of the campaign”.
Of course throughout our discussions you’re not strong on facts are you ???
Newman has a guess about how much his asset sales will raise. Buying power assets is not flavour of the month.
Coal export terminals should be built by coal exporters, you know the ones who are closing mines and begging for Govt handouts.
Newman is exporting gas out of his arse.
Brisbane Times (Dec 19, 2014)
“Queenslanders will remain in the dark over what their state assets are truly worth until after the government has sold them”.
Yes, tb you support something you know nothing about!
What I know is, these assets are currently earning $ 1.8 billion per year. Sell them and that revenue is gone!
Without knowing what the annual increase in revenue will be it’s extimated Queensland will lose out and your big business mates will make a killing to the tune of $100 billion plus.
You’re no true blue Aussie – you insult the name!
Well, I’m up country and off to travel to Bangkok now. My plane leaves at midnight for the red-eye flight to Brisbane.
After over coming jet-lag I hope to be on-line again in about 24 hours.
May Monday bring good news for true blue Aussies and bad news for people like Abbott, Newman and their supporting mob of porky tellers!
Brisbane Times June 13, 2011 (Labor Government running QLD)
[“The Queensland government will soon be paying more than $5 billion in interest on its debt each year, Treasurer Andrew Fraser has revealed.
But Mr Fraser declared today that debt levels would be “manageable”, amid opposition claims the government was mismanaging the economy.”]
We haven’t forgotten!
Ausdavo, the Assets may well be paying $2 Billion a year in revenue, but as revealed above we are paying $5 Billion in interest repayments each year.
Now lets say the Assets sell/leased for $47 Billion, $7B is used for sweetners and the other $40 Billion used to pay off debt, that’s $2.5B LESS Queenslanders will be paying on debt repayments per year, more than the assets bring in.
It’s all about opportunity costs mate.
Who can forget Newman axing the Literary awards and giving the funding to big brother, wot a hoot.
Cheers. Sounds pretty obscure not sure where to place her in my preferences
The tightening in Ashgrove and scare tactics from the LNP/Murdoch seem to demonstrate to me that Labor’s getting further from victory, not closer to it.
Nowhere near a certainty, but I’d say the LNP will be relatively comfortable with their position at the moment.
147 I’ll be interested to see what the next polls have to say.
Anything above 53 for the Libs and I’ll be greatly concerned about which Victorian province I’ll take up residence.
KTO I recommend Kooyong 🙂
I work thereabouts. Nothing too special 😛
New thread.