GhostWhoVotes tweets that tomorrow’s Australian carries a Newspoll from Ashgrove, from a sample of 600, which gives Campbell Newman something of a morale boost in showing him trailing Labor’s Kate Jones in his seat of Ashgrove by a margin of just 51-49, from primary votes of 47% for both Newman and Jones, 5% for the Greens and 1% for “others”. Furthermore, Newman is credit with something he hasn’t seen much of lately, namely a positive net approval rating, with approval at 51% and disapproval at 42%. However, Jones leads him as “better local member” 52-44, though under the circumstances this measure is a bit hard to read.
Pooping the LNP party, apparently, is electorate-level Galaxy polling from the Courier-Mail showing “massive swings of up to 12 per cent against the Newman Government across southeast Queensland”, and the LNP to be “wiped out across north Queensland”. It would seem this includes a very close result in the Townsville seat of Mundingburra and a big Labor lead in Greenslopes in Brisbane’s inner south. Stay tuned for more on that one.
UPDATE: The Galaxy polling for the Courier-Mail encompasses eight individual electorates, and while the report offers nothing on how it was conducted, I think it’s safe to assume it followed the usual format of electorate-level polling from Galaxy in hitting samples of around 550 by automated phone polling. The results are remarkably consistent in showing swings to Labor of around 10%, and are thus actually well in line with the statewide Galaxy phone poll of last week which had the LNP leading 52-48 – which is to say they don’t quite live up to the Courier-Mail’s “Palaszczuk is on track to become premier” front page hype. Only two-party results are provided, which are as follows:
Barron River (LNP 9.5%): 50-50.
Cairns (LNP 8.9%): 53-47 to Labor.
Greenslopes (LNP 2.5%): 59-41 to Labor.
Mulgrave (Labor 1.1%): 61-39 to Labor.
Mundingburra (LNP 10.2%): 51-49 to Labor.
Pumicestone (LNP 12.1%): 52-48 to LNP.
Thuringowa (LNP 6.7%): 52-48 to Labor.
Townsville (LNP 4.8%): 58-42 to Labor.
There is now a Queensland poll tracker on the sidebar, inclusive of last week’s Newspoll, Galaxy and ReachTEL. All the polling since then has been electorate-level, for better or worse.
I like the look and of the QLD poll tracker thanks William.
[“Comrade Greenslopes and Mundingburra are both traditional Labor seats although Crisafulli managed to build a 16%+ margin in 2012.”
Greenslopes is a bellwether – almost always goes with government – I know – I live and vote here. Even went National during the period of National-only government.]
Indeed, if you are prepared to count the 1995 general election as ultimately being a N/LP victory then the seat has always been held by government.
It’s probably fair to say that it is slightly ALP leaning insofar as ALP victories have been larger than LNP ones, but clearly it’s one of the first Brisbane seats to fall when there is a swing to the LNP.
It is entirely reasonable to classify Pumicestone and the rest of the Sunshine Coast in SEQ although clearly Bribie Island and other pockets in The SC are culturally closer to regional Central Queensland than they are to inner urban Brisbane.
[Martin B
Posted Saturday, January 17, 2015 at 6:14 pm | Permalink
It is entirely reasonable to classify Pumicestone and the rest of the Sunshine Coast in SEQ although clearly Bribie Island and other pockets in The SC are culturally closer to regional Central Queensland than they are to inner urban Brisbane.]
Martin why would Bribie be clearly culturally closer to regional Central Qld?
I’m no country bumpkin 🙂
Why I predict a hung parliament:
It would appear that the ALP are likely to win a minimum 31 seats given a swing of 10%, including Sunnybank 10.2%.
Interestingly Redcliffe was 10.1% prior to the by-election.
All the rest require a swing of 9.6% or below.
The swing against the ALP in those seats in 2012 ranged from 5.6% Cook to 21.0% Sunnybank which is why I’ve included it as a win – only half the swingers need to swing back!
Only Cook, Cairns, Townsville and Murrumba require slightly more than half to swing back.
Redcliffe in fact got more than 100% back at the by-election.
This all suggests the ALP doesn’t have to worry about any more than reclaiming those who deserted because of factors like then PM Gillard, unhappy about Rudd, unhappy with Bligh to name 3. However one can add the Abbott factor and the Newman factor to increase the rate of swing back or deserters from the LNP.
I have assumed Dalrymple & Mt Isa stay KAP and Nicklin IND.
That leaves 55 seats.
From these I have assumed 36 wins for the LNP. Additionally,
Maryborough should go IND, Gaven IND & Nanango KAP making three others I believe are a big chance to be lost by the LNP.
The range of LNP safety in their 36 is from 11.1% in Mansfield to 30.4% in Surfers Paradise.
Apart from Mansfield there are six others with the smallest margins: Nanango 9.2% (Ind), Callide 13.5% (Ind), Chatsworth 14.1%, Southport 14.7%, Springwood 15.4% and Mt Omaney 16.5%. Apart from 2 IND the other 5 were all ALP prior to 2012 but by quite small margins.
They would require between 72% (Mansfield) & 100% (Chatsworth) of deserters to swing back to go back to the ALP.
This leaves just a remaining 16 seats – all except Gladstone presently held by the LNP.
Of the 15 LNP all except Mirani 11.2%. were previously ALP.
The swing required, ranges from 5.7% in Ashgrove to 13.7% in Pine Rivers.
Seven are Brisbane – Ashgrove 5.7%, Ferny Grove 9.5%, Albert 11.9%, Pumicestone 12.1%, Kallangar 12.4%, Everton 13.2% & Pine Rivers 13.7%.
Two are gold Coast – Burleigh 11.0% & Broadwater 11.3%.
From the rest of Queensland there are Keppel 6.4%, Barron River 9.5%, Toowoomba Nth 9.6%, Mundingburra 10.2%, Whitsunday 10.7%, Mirani 11.2% & Gladstone (IND) 14.0%
These seats saw an average swing against the ALP of 15% last election. Anything up to 12 of the 16 would come back to the ALP with about 75% of “lost” voters returning for similar reasons outlined above. That would require a swing of about 11.5% to 12% – a bit more than presently indicated.
However, I give Gladstone, Ashgrove, Keppell, Ferny Grove and Toowoomba Nth to the ALP giving my numbers:
KAP 3, IND 3, ALP 36, LNP 36
Too close 11
Barron River 9.5%, Mundingburra 10.2%, Whitsunday 10.7%, Burleigh 11.0%, Mirani 11.2%, Broadwater 11.3%, Albert 11.9%, Pumicestone 12.1%, Kallangar 12.4%, Everton 13.2% and Pine Rivers 13.7%.
Naturally, these are the seats I’ll be keenly watching on the night of Jan 31.
If the LNP won all – they get a small majority (47 seats).
Lose 3 or more and minority government will be the result – one I believe most likely!
Lose them all and Abbott will be wearing a nappy!
I note with amusement that the Courier-Mail’s article was edited after its original online publication.
Before:
“FIRST-term Labor Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk is on track to become premier in a hung parliament, according to an exclusive poll of key electorates.”
After:
“ANNASTACIA Palaszczuk could become the state’s accidental premier with the LNP losing the battle against a massive protest vote in key seats across Queensland.”
[Martin why would Bribie be clearly culturally closer to regional Central Qld?]
Unless it has changed since I was last there it is much older, much whiter and much more conservative than the rest of the electorate (and SEQ) and has quite a non-urban outlook. There has been a lot of development, I know, so possibly there are more families and urban commuters than there used to be.
Obviously the SC and the GC are overall different from Brisbane which itself contains a lot of diversity. Amalgamating them all together to form a single analytic entity is always going to be something of a fiction. The SC is more conservative than Brisbane; the mire conservative pockets in the SC like Bribie or Buderim are going to end up closer to a place like Maryborough than South Brisbane.
Sunday paper polls ? Does seem polls swing as they close to polling day to decisive outcomes. Not impossible that 53-47 becomes 55-45 as people start to focus on the decision. It used to be the confusion about whether the libs or nats would be leader drove votes to labor in the last couple of weeks but the shoe may be on the other foot for this one.
ESJ @ 28
“I’m only interested in facts not wishes ajm”.
So what does ESJ do @ 60 ????
Straight into wishful thinking.
Don’t put your money on it ESJ.
People don’t like hung parliaments or disunity ausdavo. Australian political history has proven that.
[ It used to be the confusion about whether the libs or nats would be leader drove votes to labor in the last couple of weeks but the shoe may be on the other foot for this one.]
Typically, Eddie is half right and half wrong. The Nat / Lib uncertainty of who would be in charge if the coalition won was always an ace up Labor’s sleeve and deterred many metro voters. And the problem this time is magnified with Cando being seriously doubtful and no hint from LNP who would replace him. There will still be a number of metro swingers who would prefer a Labor non descript to an ex-Nat running the place.
Hung parliaments happen by accident and not design. Just because we don’t like doesn’t mean we won’t vote for one by accident.
Facts please ESJ.
Murdoch newspapers don’t like them and convince those who don’t understand.
For most Queenslanders a hung parliament will;
1 prevent Newman’s mob selling off the family jewels.
2 not allow the ALP to take over in full before they are ready.
3 allow for another election if neither side can handle the responsibility.
Incidentally, how come I’ve never seen you criticise our beloved leader, font of all wisdom, keeper of the faith – Abbott, he who does no wrong and must be obeyed – to plagiarise H Rider Haggard ????
Yes, Carr in 1999, Beattie in 2001 and Bracks in 2002 were all severely punished at the ballott box for leading deeply unpopular minority governments.
[Hung parliaments happen by accident and not design. Just because we don’t like doesn’t mean we won’t vote for one by accident.]
Indeed, if there were any evidence whatever that potentially knife-edge elections have a consistent tendency to blow out in the last couple of weeks die to fears of a hung parliament then that would be interesting.
Clearly this is an evidence-free speculation intended as a bit of LNP boosterism and so not very interesting.
I doubt too many people deliberately vote for a hung parliament.
I noticed that someone posted that Labor left an $80B state debt. This is incorrect, the debt was about $46B, but I have also heard it was $62B. On top of this little Campbell Newman quoted the state debt as near $100B. This was only a couple of weeks ago. So Tim Nicholls is now blaming Labor for a blow out of state debt of between $34B & $54B (on the lower figure) which occurred as a result of lnp “policies” on his watch. The lnp are not quite the financial geniuses some right wingers would profess (work out how much the state would get per year over 99 years for a sale of the people’s assets for S37B). But then again what more can you expect from a treasurer who says 5.7% is higher than 11% as he did today.
[I doubt too many people deliberately vote for a hung parliament.]
Arguably everyone who votes for a non-major in a winnable seat is in sone sense voting ‘for’ a hung parliament, and in a more general sense there is clearly a proportion of the electorate in bicameral systems who deliberately vote for power-sharing between the houses but yes, it is essentially impossible to tactically vote for a hung lower house so even those people with an inclination to think about that (which is a tiny fraction of the population) cannot do so with any impact.
davidwh@64
A sensible comment.
I don’t believe anyone votes for or against a hung parliament. I don’t believe voters ‘game’ their vote. They vote however they decide.
Voting either way could be said to be likely to increase/decrease the odds of a hung parliament.
Not a serious consideration.
Visited mum today Bemused. She was a little brighter and smiling. Said she would get at least one more vote for Labor.
davidwh@72
She must be disappointed in her son. 🙁
🙂 🙂 🙂
davidwh@74
It is never too late to repent the wickedness of your ways!
David and bemused, my mother will be 100 on Feb 9 this year.
Not happy that her letter is from Abbott not the Queen any more.
She can’t stand Can’t do (as she calls him).
And.. doesn’t like lies so they are both on the nose!
David, as a good Queenslander, you don’t have to vote for a man who’s giving your money away to Indian coal magnates and wrecking our GBR to boot!
Blessings for your mum ausdavo.
Dr Chris Davis, ex LNP minister “boned” by Campbell Newman has released this ad
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3FrF7z76b8&feature=youtu.be
ausdavo
Cross Broadwater off the list as a potential gain for ALP.
I live in the electorate and it is tory territory.
The Gold Coast in General is tory territory as well and IMHO Labor would be very lucky to win a seat here on the Gold Coast
[The Gold Coast in General is tory territory as well and IMHO Labor would be very lucky to win a seat here on the Gold Coast]
The ALP has always held some of the (outlying) GC seats in periods of government. Just as the LNP cannot win government without taking suburban Brisbane seats, the ALP needs to take some territory like this.
80
Correct
But the ALP are not very liked here on the Gold Coast.
And Labor has zero chance of winning the election so this may lead some voters here to stick with Can’t Do.
To add to my previous statement if Douglas polls more than 10% primary vote in Gaven I will be shocked. LNP easy retain there
aaronkirk@81
Why?
That’s a nice tracker William. Your inflection points and smoothing are very well chosen and accurate
81
The ALP at best could potentially force a minority government (which I doubt very much) and the Opposition Leader has already stated she and her party will not deal with the cross bench to form a minority government.
This coupled with the fact that a) there is not enough experience for the ALP to be in government after this election and b) the stigma still out there about the previous Bligh government, which unanimously in the community was a very poor government will see the LNP just hang on.
Not that Newman deserves to be re-elected.
My projection is 54-46 2PP in LNP favour and Newman to retain Ashgrove.
Aaronkirk,
The best the LNP can hope for is 52% 2PP
85
Based on what facts?
Unless the ALP start bringing out detailed economic policy then they will be lucky to get to 46 2PP
Palaszczuk performance in Gladstone today showed that she clearly is not ready to be Premier.
aaronkirk
Broadwater ALP from 2001 to 2012 then LNP. Hardly historically strong LNP.
Barton a lot of bad publicity.
3 vote splitters on the right – PUP FamFP & ONation.
Broadwater was only ALP due to an extremely popular local ALP MP in PK Croft, who had a very high personal vote in the community,
A lot of wealthy retirees in the electorate, and we know who they generally vote for.
And with OPV it won’t matter how much of the vote splits to the right minor parties as the LNP should still comfortably win the primary vote over the ALP.
There are 7 candidates in Gaven…..anything can happen there as most preferences exhaust.
Albert could be won by Labor but is too close to call and in 50-50 territory.
Broadwater may be held by the LNP, but the current margin and its shallowness may make it worth watching.
The rest will likely be held by the LNP
Aaronkirk, for the LNP to win 54-46 the gap in primaries must be at least 7 or 8 points. It is currently at most 4 points. Moreover, for the past 12 months virtually all polls have shown the LNP to face a swing of at least 10%-11% if not more, the trend has set in by now.
@89, I was talking about Gold Coast seats
90
Fair point.
But we are only at the start of the campaign
We will see what happens.
A 52-48 LNP result, which is probably where we sit at the moment, gives the ALP 30 seats on a uniform swing and the LNP would need to retain all their seats v KAP and independents to stay in majority government.
An ALP win just doesn’t seem likely to me and Palaszczuk’s campaign performance is not helping.
Aaronkirk, Labor had clearly been caught off guard by the early election announcement. Whilst last week they were barely visible, they have done much better this week. This next 2 weeks should help make up for it.
Palaszczuk is doing well given her limited resources and the LNP campaign outspending them by such a vast margin. The election is still no foregone conclusion despite this.
The LNP will be zero without Newman. Their electoral success was based purely on his ego. The fact they were planning on dumping him in the new year, speaks volumes about how self destructive they are as they will fall into disarray without his parliamentary presence.
[That’s a nice tracker William. Your inflection points and smoothing are very well chosen and accurate]
Thank you, although some of the credit belongs to Akaike’s information criterion (I totally know what that means, BTW – anyone who says different is a liar.)
93
Newman losing Ashgrove is not a foregone conclusion either.
Heard on tonights news cranky Kate kicked the press out of her campaign launch in Ashgrove… paying True Believers only thanks. Either she was embarrassed about her no plans launch for Ashgrove or she didn’t want anyone asking any hard questions.
Not a good look.
Campbell meanwhile will be opening his campaign tomorrow with full press crew in tow.
Purely based on the current seat odds the ALP would gain the following seats:
Algester, Ashgrove, Brisbane Central, Bulimba, Cairns
Capalaba, Cook,Ferny Grove, Gladstone, Greenslopes, Ipswich
Ipswich West, Keppell, Logan, Lytton, Morayfield, Mount Coot-Tha, Murrumba, Nudgee, Sandgate, Stretton, Sunnybank
Thuringowa, Toowoomba North, Townsville, Waterford and Yeerongpilly
The seat of Kallangur is 50/50
If you give Kallangur to the ALP this is 30 gained seats for the ALP.
Based on current betting odds it would be LNP 49 ALP 38 KAP 2 OTH 2
aaronkirk @ 95.
That’s why I have it and Keppell as the two most questionable under 9.5%. It is no foregone conclusion.
As for troll trueblue I’d trust “cranky Kate” way ahead of your mate “No can Do” any day.
Here’s some things “No can do” has given us:
1.Planning to sell off Queensland’s income earning assets.
2.Has broken his promise to create jobs – 50,000 less in work now than when he took over!
3.Has failed to FIX the hospital waiting lists. Just taken people off them. They have to start again.
4.Has put Queensland schools back 10 years sacking support staff.
5.Has seen the crime statistics increase NOT reduce.
6.Has made special back-dated laws to protect business mates.
7.Has given mining companies unprecedented rights over farm land and farmers.
8.Has allowed mining companies $ millions of government subsidies.
9.Has failed to protect the Great Barrier Reef.
10.Has failed to protect our biggest industry – TOURISM.
Go for it trueblue – he might have fooled you but he’s quickly being exposed for the con man he is. The bigger the vote against him the better!
aaronkirk @ 97 you have a pretty good assessment there.
I slightly disagree with the LNP 49 as your total adds up to 91 and there’s only 89 seats.
So I’ll reduce your LNP to 47 and then as I believe that the KAP/others could be as high as 8 (not the 4 you’ve got) the LNP could be 43 leading to the hung parliament I’m predicting BASED ON today’s polling figures.
I’ll be right out there changing my estimates if the polls swing back to the LNP (but not if they go ALP as I see the ALP as more unreliable until counting happens).
Trueblueaussie is just another one of those paid or unpaid LNP trolls who try to make it appear cool to be an LNP supporter. Ignore it for a simpler life.