GhostWhoVotes tweets that tomorrow’s Australian carries a Newspoll from Ashgrove, from a sample of 600, which gives Campbell Newman something of a morale boost in showing him trailing Labor’s Kate Jones in his seat of Ashgrove by a margin of just 51-49, from primary votes of 47% for both Newman and Jones, 5% for the Greens and 1% for “others”. Furthermore, Newman is credit with something he hasn’t seen much of lately, namely a positive net approval rating, with approval at 51% and disapproval at 42%. However, Jones leads him as “better local member” 52-44, though under the circumstances this measure is a bit hard to read.
Pooping the LNP party, apparently, is electorate-level Galaxy polling from the Courier-Mail showing “massive swings of up to 12 per cent against the Newman Government across southeast Queensland”, and the LNP to be “wiped out across north Queensland”. It would seem this includes a very close result in the Townsville seat of Mundingburra and a big Labor lead in Greenslopes in Brisbane’s inner south. Stay tuned for more on that one.
UPDATE: The Galaxy polling for the Courier-Mail encompasses eight individual electorates, and while the report offers nothing on how it was conducted, I think it’s safe to assume it followed the usual format of electorate-level polling from Galaxy in hitting samples of around 550 by automated phone polling. The results are remarkably consistent in showing swings to Labor of around 10%, and are thus actually well in line with the statewide Galaxy phone poll of last week which had the LNP leading 52-48 – which is to say they don’t quite live up to the Courier-Mail’s “Palaszczuk is on track to become premier” front page hype. Only two-party results are provided, which are as follows:
Barron River (LNP 9.5%): 50-50.
Cairns (LNP 8.9%): 53-47 to Labor.
Greenslopes (LNP 2.5%): 59-41 to Labor.
Mulgrave (Labor 1.1%): 61-39 to Labor.
Mundingburra (LNP 10.2%): 51-49 to Labor.
Pumicestone (LNP 12.1%): 52-48 to LNP.
Thuringowa (LNP 6.7%): 52-48 to Labor.
Townsville (LNP 4.8%): 58-42 to Labor.
Interesting. Might we see a published poll with Newman in the lead soon?
What would be the difference in margin of error between this and the Reachtel that polled 800 odd?
Supposed maximum margins of error for the ReachTEL would be 3.4% and for the Newspoll 4%. However if you assume neither has a house effect and merge them it’s about 2.6%.
I’m treating the Galaxy reporting in the CM with caution (it’s that old marginals-mayhem story again, that appears almost every election, nearly never amounting to much) and I’ve added a preliminary update here:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/01/queensland-ashgrove-redcliffe-and-other.html
I’ll have more considered comments when I’ve seen the seat poll results, but I’ll probably be just as cynical in the morning 🙂
It’s interesting to read William and Kevin B’s coverage and comments on the Qld election.
William is cautious.
Kevin is calling it for the LNP even to the point of questioning Galaxy who he has rated the top pollster in Australia.
Whoever mentioned betting, SA Labor were at longer odds than $9 last year. The kind of odds you can get tipping GWS playing the Hawks in Melbourne, and that one paid off.
There’s a statewide Morgan coming (I was SMS polled for it a couple of days ago) so it will provide an interesting background to this.
The seat polling at the last two by elections Stafford and Redcliffe seemed to be right out of whack with huge swings to ALP. Admittedly in by election scenario but were broadly accurate. The privatisation of assets is hugely unpopular as well and this will weigh heavily on the Government in final weeks with ALP and minor parties honing in on the weak spots plus uninspiring,unloved characters like Nichols Cando Seeney borg and Bleigie to sell it, Will it be enough to propel ALP to unlikely win or force Minority situation? Galaxy poll certainly in line with the opinions of the many people I’m talking to, LNP extremely unpopular with toxic policies rather than ALP popular.
Hard to believe any spin in Murdoch organs, but this from the CM
[FIRST-term Labor Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk is on track to become premier in a hung parliament, according to an exclusive poll of key electorates.
The Galaxy poll reveals massive swings of up to 12 per cent against the Newman Government across southeast Queensland that could deliver power to Labor with the help of independents, just three years after it was decimated at the ballot box.
The Galaxy poll also found the LNP could be wiped out across north Queensland, with Labor picking up the votes that went to Katter’s Australian Party in 2012.
Party insiders insisted internal polling showed there were wild variations in swings occurring across the state. The LNP believe the names of their well-known MPs on the ballot paper would shield many of them – but warned that a minority government was still a likely scenario.
According to Galaxy, the future of the LNP’s rising regional star, David Crisafulli, is on a knife’s edge – a finding echoed across the north.
And a big swing against the Government in the south Brisbane seat of Greenslopes suggests that eight other electorates across the city would fall to Labor if voters elsewhere felt the same.]
Interesting that the big swing to Labor in Greenslopes is in a seat where Labor contained the swing quite well in 2012 and only lost by a small margin.
Could mean mayhem for the LNP in middle-range suburban seats and if they’re battling in the regions as well they could be in real trouble.
Big swings in wrong places. another Labor fail.
As the article suggests that Labor will reclaim much of the vote it lost to the latter party in 2012, this must mean Labor is a decent shot at gaining Mount Isa.
Labor would also be an outside chance in Gaven if the vote between Alex Douglas and the LNP was split finely enough to see Labor win on the back of a primary vote lead with preferences exhausting.
As the article suggests that Labor will reclaim much of the vote it lost to the katter party in 2012, this must mean Labor is a decent shot at gaining Mount Isa.
Labor would also be an outside chance in Gaven if the vote between Alex Douglas and the LNP was split finely enough to see Labor win on the back of a primary vote lead with preferences exhausting.
ESJ
Those are the RIGHT places as far as Labor is concerned. LNP won big in 2012 in midrange suburbs and the regions.
Swing is going to be 8-10% and will not be uniform. Look at Ashgrove swing is just under 7 per cent (news poll). The LNP can absorb a bigger swing outside SE QLD , it’s quite likely the SE QLD is going to come out around 7-8 per cent and regionally it’s going to be 12 per cent.
Just for fun I used Antony’s calculator a 7.5% SE qld swing and a 12 % regional swing gives me 50 seats to the LNP and 34 to Labor which looks about right. Obviously you could go + or – 3 on the seat tally for some local factors but that’s pretty much how it will end up.
Edwina, are there policy reasons why the swing wont be uniform, like is it a geographically polarising election, or do you mean it wont be uniform like any election ?
I was surprised how uniform the swing in Vic was.
I’m with Kevin on these seat polls, a touch sceptical. 2013 taught me that. It’s still close.
Davidwh from previous thread:
[Comrade Greenslopes and Mundingburra are both traditional Labor seats although Crisafulli managed to build a 16%+ margin in 2012.]
Greenslopes is a bellwether – almost always goes with government – I know – I live and vote here. Even went National during the period of National-only government.
Also, if anything the area is gentrifying and may become less favourable to Labor over time – I know this because my house value keeps going up pretty rapidly.
This is a mischievous (and rather predictable) attempt by the Courier-Mail in collusion with the LNP to try to reduce the “protest” vote for Labor by those voters expecting an LNP win. With the orthodoxy expecting an LNP win, many voters may feel like giving Labor their vote as a way of reducing the landslide of 2012 to give Newman a message. By positioning this poll as somehow implying Labor might ‘win’ (albeit in a hung parliament), the LNP-CM cabal will attempt to minimise the protest vote. Will it work?
[“Whoever mentioned betting, SA Labor were at longer odds than $9 last year. “]
The difference of course is that:
1. SA has Australia’s best Gerrymander
2. The Libs actually had to win seats off a sitting Government, aka the situation we are now in for Labor
3. The LNP hold 67 Seats more than Labor in QLD that’s quite a buffer
[Will it work?]
Let’s hope so 🙂
Oh and of course Number 4 which I forgot.
48%. That’s what Labor is on. 48%.
Not 52-53% TPP like the SA Libs. Labor have no chance.
TrueBlueAussie
[Labor have no chance.]
I don’t think the word “chance” means what you think it means.
I don’t believe Labor will win but Newman losing his seat would be a lovely consolation prize.
Actually if you set Anthony Green’s calculator to a SE Qld swing of 11.5% (Greenslopes) and a regional swing of 10.5% (average of the other results), you get
Labor 40
LNP 44
Other 5
A hung parliament, just as the Curious Snail says, much as I hate to say it.
Well of course ajm if you ignore the statewide swing of 8% anything is possible! Julia Gillard could still be PM too!
ESJ
8% – is that from the latest Galaxy statewide poll? That was soooo last week.
Not taking seat polls seriously, but reading that CM article, enjoying all the angry comments from pro-LNP supporters.
Can’t say how yet the non-uniform swing will apply. Probably city vs rural but with variations by geography?
I can imagine a handful of Ipswich seats falling to Labor with large margins. I can only speak about seats south of the Brisbane river. A bit hard to say about the south around McGregor and Sunnybank but the west of that around Cooper Plains will form a string of Labor seats stretching to Ipswich and Logan.
I’m only interested in facts not wishes ajm. You’ll find plenty of other people on here who might share your fantasies though.
Considering Logan and Brisbane Central were held by former labor premiers Raaraa it’s a safe bet they’ll be coming home in 2 weeks time.
Paul@3
Especially now I have seen them, I am not questioning Galaxy’s results. I am questioning the Courier-Mail’s (deliberately?) idiotic interpretation of perfectly reasonable Galaxy results (update added on this: http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/01/queensland-ashgrove-redcliffe-and-other.html). The article paints exactly the reverse picture to what the results actually say.
I am also not yet “calling” the election for the LNP (in the sense of declaring a certain win) but I think that unless Labor improves its statewide vote share compared to last week’s polling then an LNP majority is extremely likely.
TrueBlueAussie (18) reckons SA has Australia’s best gerrymander.
Not true. After every election, an independent commission adjusts seats to try to ensure that the party winning more than 50 per cent of the two-party vote will win the next election.
Everything was set up for a Liberal win last year. It didn’t happen, because the Libs failed to win several city seats that were money for jam.
In a couple of Liberal-held city seats – Dunstan, held by the Leader of the Opposition, and Adelaide – there were actually swings to Labor. In the safest Liberal seats, mainly in the country where Labor did not waste resources, there were big swings against the government.
Thus the Libs piled up big majorities where it didn’t matter and finished with 53 per cent of the two-party vote but no bananas.
This kind of thing is possible in a city-state like SA.
Queensland is far more decentralised (though Brisbane voters, and those of the regional cities, may be behaving like those of Adelaide).
ajm@23
That calculator assumes that personal votes for sitting members don’t exist, that an LNP-turned-indie-turned-PUP-turned-indie retains Gaven which is otherwise LNP +19, and that Labor gets so lucky in the close seats that they win twelve by 2.0 or less compared to six such for the LNP. (On the other hand, if you flick the retiring members switch, Labor gets Mirani.)
In any case, a single seat poll varying from the rest of the state by one point is not sufficient evidence of uneven swing.
Any of these figures can be used to show a hung parliament is possible, but that’s not news. Likely would be news if it were true.
Just risen here in Thailand, Home to Hervey Bay Monday,
What a lovely welcome home present.
ESJ’s “I’m only interested in facts not wishes ajm. You’ll find plenty of other people on here who might share your fantasies though” is hilarious when that is exactly what she/he is doing.
She/he changes Galaxy’s massive “up to 12% swing” across SE Qld “just for fun” to 7.5% and fantasizes that the north Qld 10% won’t occur any where else.
There are no “facts” about elections based on opinion polls, ESJ something you seem unaware of.
However, it does appear at this point in time with 2 weeks to go the stink of Abbott and the failure of Newman is permeating Queensland and that many of those who deserted the ALP 3 years ago (with good reason) are ready to return.
My guess is a “hung ” parliament (Murdoch’s fear too) but that the LNP will have the low 40’s the ALP the high 30’s.
Then it’ll be on for the next 3 years ?
Further re the calculator, the ABC classifies Pumicestone as SEQ (not unreasonably) so based on that the SEQ average in the poll becomes almost exactly the same as the average for the rest.
Does anyone think that the CM is highlighting the threat of a hung parliament to scare the punters into voting for the LNP?
That’s what it seems to me.
As a southern state person I don’t really want Labor to win this election. An reelected yet unpopular conservative state government in Queensland can only be a negative for Abbott come 2016
Exactly my thoughts lwp. The power of the Murdoch Press is clear.
The ALP are not ready to govern but they will have a better team to present as an alternative in three years time.
If the LNP trys to go ahead with their “privatisation” plans hopefully the cross benches will stop them (if it’s a hung parliament).
ALP & cross-bench committees may usefully uncover some of the scandals that the CM has failed to cover.
The CM Code of Conduct states “Editorial employees and contributors should be open-minded, be fair and respect the truth”.
Of course respecting the truth is one thing publishing it is another. Lies by omission is their biggest failing.
35 –
I don’t see why a bad government should be reelected to make another bad government look worse when they are doing that themselves.
99 year leases are a great concern.
I suspect this election will be similar to the SA state election in 1997 which followed the famous state bank election in 1993. Lots of liberal darkening of underwear on the night, but ultimately a narrow majority.
The election is close enough, however, that some sort of faux pas could seriously injure either side.
I also thank Toorak Toff for rebutting the rather silly claim that SA has Australia’s best gerrymander. The liberals just wasted so much money campaigning in seats that didn’t matter; they spent An obscene amount of money in John Rau’s seat of Enfield for example. The ALP spends it’s money much more wisely. Someone I know who was the labor candidate in mount gambier had a handful of corflutes for the entire electorate. If the liberals want the election to be decided on statewide 2PP, the ALP would just change its election campaigning. It’s as simple as that.
I’m still trying to work out this formula
Labor 48% TPP Vote + Requiring to win 38 Seats off a sitting 1st term Government + A low-altitude flying opposition leader most Queenslanders don’t know the name of + ??? = Labor Wins
The only thing I can think the ??? equals is either a miracle, a complete detachment from reality or perhaps a Schedule 8 Restricted Drug of some sort.
I think the general use of the term SEQ includes not just Caboolture but all of the Sunshine Coast as well.
Sure enough, the ABC calculator includes everything up to Noosa in the SEQ swing.
TrueBlueAussie, whilst most Queenslanders don’t know the Opposition Leader, most do know Campbell Newman and Tony Abbott.
Plus the 2PP figure is a little meaningless – if what you want is for a particular vote figure to match electoral results you should advocate for a proportional representation system of some sort. I’d hazard to guess you wouldn’t support that.
any news William on leaked internal polling in Ashgrove showing Newman on 39% primary? saw something on twitter but no follow up so may be a troll.
I heard on ABC leaked news yesterday afternoon that the backroom boys of the LNP are weighing up and deciding who the next Premier will be in the event of the LNP falling across the line.
Tim Nichols is the preferred man according to the ABC report.
If true This does not auger well for Candos Ashgrove prospects.
Re 44
It’s common knowledge that a spill was going to occur before a March, 2015 Qld election.
That’s the reason Newman called an early election while Nichols was on Xmas holidays.
Reddit picks up a copy of the Courier Mail
http://www.reddit.com/r/australia/comments/2sowo6/labor_party_comes_out_swinging_the_eleventh_page/
shalmaneser@kooee.com.au@43
I can’t find any tweet saying that. I found one referring to 32.5% but doubt it was serious. 🙂
ESJ:
[I’m only interested in facts not wishes ajm.]
What, starting now? That’d be a refreshing change.
yeah sorry Kevin, only noticed it in passing. could have been that.
@35
However it may scare LNP votes to the ALP to avoid a hung parliament.