… is here. Bells and whistles include electorate maps (sadly not including two-party booth results this time, partly because the assumptions of the two-party vote didn’t entirely play out in 2012, and partly because I didn’t have time), and charts showing previous election results and demographic indicators. I only got half way through checking that all the pages were in order before calling it a night, so try not to laugh too hard if you see candidate photos or slabs of text applied to the wrong electorates. Corrections of the polite kind will be gratefully received in comments.
Hi William,
Gladstone is showing as LNP when I think it should be in Other probably between IND V ALP this election.
Why would have Mark Furner originally preferred Pine Rivers (13.7%) to Ferny Grove (9.5%)?
Fun fact: Labor’s candidate for Southport, Rowan Holzberger, used to work for Peter Duncan many years ago in South Australia.
I must say the years have been much kinder to him than to me!
I’m fairly certain that isn’t a photo of Mark Furner in the Ferny Grove profile William.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/01/queensland-ashgrove-redcliffe-and-other.html
Queensland: Ashgrove, Redcliffe and Other Snippets
Reposting link to yesterday’s piece, which includes:
* ReachTEL Ashgrove poll
* Modelling for seats that change ownership in by-elections
* Seat betting changes
* Another rant about uniform swing pendulums
* Scarcity of recycled ALP ex-politicians
Any word on that elusive Labor Economic Plan yet?
Shane Doherty tweeting ‘no major surprises’. Details lunchish
TBA
[Any word on that elusive Labor Economic Plan yet?]
I’m sure it involves job creation. As opposed to the LNP policy of losing jobs in Queensland, based on the last few years under Newman.
Thanks the tally of recycled Labor candidates, Kevin – it’s interesting how few there are.
LU
[Thanks the tally of recycled Labor candidates, Kevin – it’s interesting how few there are.]
Indeed. I wonder how many will make a pitch for a Fed LNP-held seat.
here is the gist of it, from Poll Call
Regarding Newman’s job-creating credentials.
I have gone through the ABS jobs data after waiting for yesterdays release which made this summary not quite as damming.
The ABS population data shows that at the end of March 2012 the Queensland population was 4.546 million. At the end of December 2014 4.762 million. This is an increase of 215,000 new residents.
Over the same period full time jobs have increased by 6,000 and part-time jobs 52,200 a total job increase of 58,200.
About half of Queensland’s population were employed in March 2012 (2.290 million).
To keep pace with this population growth of 215,000 there should have been a natural job increase of about 108,000.
This figure clearly shows that rather than create jobs the Newman government has lost 50,000 jobs in 2 years and 9 months in office.
[Gladstone is showing as LNP when I think it should be in Other probably between IND V ALP this election.]
Correct. Fixed.
[Why would have Mark Furner originally preferred Pine Rivers (13.7%) to Ferny Grove (9.5%)?]
Good question. Must look into that. Perhaps he didn’t.
[I’m fairly certain that isn’t a photo of Mark Furner in the Ferny Grove profile William.]
Yes, those were the Caloundra photos. Fixed.
Thanks all.
you are forgiven for any indiscretions. it just goes to prove you are human.thank you for all your effort.
Labors campaign is imploding in Queensland and they are now out to $9 bucks at sportsbet.
With $80 Billion in state debt left by the last Labor Government to pay down they are going to need something better than the $150M a year paper shuffling they announced today.
The other issue of course is that Anna Watsername is a terrible opposition leader… most Queenslanders don’t know her name and people won’t vote for someone they don’t know the name of. Springborg had the same problem… low altitude flyers who can never be Premier.
At this stage Labor will be lucky to win 30 seats, which admittedly is coming off a low base so that will be a win of sorts I suppose.
The only real interesting part of this election will be what happens in Ashgrove.
tba – Yes I agree Cando the Muppet is toast but Lbor debt is the only bullshit you can cum up with?
Keyman , TBA is a troll. Move on
Better still, ‘Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel’, hey true blue? Is it me, or is it you
Outside, how many seats do you think Labor will win so we can compare results come election day?
Dear Mr troll blue, Stacks
Interesting no one on here commented on the passing this week of former qld labor opposition leader Keith Wright.
Not as if history will judge him kindly, as a Labor man or otherwise
I wonder what the threefold increase in enrolment changes in this Queensland election signifies?
Trueblueaustralian , just because Labor is at $9 does in no way mean the LNP has got this election in the bag. If you go off Sportsbet, the expected average Labor primary vote is 36%, whilst the expected LNP primary vote is 40.5%. This would translate to a 2PP of about 52-48, almost 11% against the LNP compared to 2012. The very 11% people say is necessary for the LNP to lose its majority.
Just because labor trails the LNP by 8 dollars on Sportsbet it does not mean that they will fall 8 primary points short of them. The greens are on $200 dollars, it hardly means they are 200% lower than the LNP does it? Lol
Whilst labor logistically struggled due to them being caught off guard this first couple of weeks , this last couple of weeks should help them make up for it. In reality, people will only really start tuning in now too as people come back from holidays. The record high enrolment also will favour Labor more than the LNP. Union polling has also pointed to the polls being overly favourable to the LNP but their claims are clearly suspicious.
All this points to Labor clearly winning well over 30 seats. Suggestions about which major party will win the election is meaningless. The main swinging factor in this election is Ashgrove – the whole reason the LNP won was Newmans persona, without him they are nothing. Newman will struggle to avoid questions which will dog him more and more regarding this in coming days. Wether or not a majority of the electorate is actually aware of how the electoral system works is another matter alltogether. But without Newman , the LNP will fall into tatters. The fact they were clearly preparing to get rid of him in the new year speaks volumes about how naive and self destructive they are. period.
The QLD Labor economic plan is Hockeynomics at its best.
You can still get $1.14 on the LNP at Tatts if you’re feeling that confident about the Springborg’s chances, TBA. Actually seems like pretty good odds to me – 14% return tax free in two weeks, risk free? Back up the truck.
From The Curious Snail –
Galaxy poll shows Labor in with a good chance of winning Queensland election
FIRST-term Labor Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk is on track to become premier in a hung parliament, according to an exclusive poll of key electorates.
The Galaxy poll reveals massive swings of up to 12 per cent against the Newman Government across southeast Queensland that could deliver power to Labor with the help of independents, just three years after it was decimated at the ballot box.
The Galaxy poll also found the LNP could be wiped out across north Queensland, with Labor picking up the votes that went to Katter’s Australian Party in 2012.
Party insiders insisted internal polling showed there were wild variations in swings occurring across the state. The LNP believe the names of their well-known MPs on the ballot paper would shield many of them – but warned that a minority government was still a likely scenario.
According to Galaxy, the future of the LNP’s rising regional star, David Crisafulli, is on a knife’s edge – a finding echoed across the north.
And a big swing against the Government in the south Brisbane seat of Greenslopes suggests that eight other electorates across the city would fall to Labor if voters elsewhere felt the same.
Newspoll 51-49 to Jones in Ashgrove
Comrade Greenslopes and Mundingburra are both traditional Labor seats although Crisafulli managed to build a 16%+ margin in 2012.
But it could be close and a hung parliament has been on the cards for a while.
If Campbell has clawed back to 49/51 then he is bucking that trend reported by Galaxy. We have to be cautious on individual seat polling as September 2013 showed. Some of the individual polling then was really in accurate.
Ghost is reporting Ashgrove primary voting is 47% for both Labor and the LNP. Hard to see the LNP losing government of that is the case.
New thread.
Unitary State@24
I would thus far say more than 11% is needed. I get 47-48 seats average to LNP off exactly that swing in my model – the ABC pendulum drops below 45 at just below 52:48 but that’s mainly because it ignores probability theory. Have to see if there is any real meat in the claims made off this Galaxy though.
The former Member for Sandgate was never the Minister for Education. here’s an up-to-date list. http://education.qld.gov.au/library/edhistory/state/ministers/