House of cards

Tony Abbott takes the opportunity of Arthur Sinodinos’s departure to strengthen his cabinet team/rearrange the deckchairs. Left untouched is Joe Hockey, whose mounting unpopularity is confirmed by an Essential Research poll.

Tony Abbott has reshuffled his cabinet in response to Assistant Treasurer Arthur Sinodinos’s announcement of his decision to step down, together with the government’s general state of disarray. The principal changes are that Defence Minister David Johnston has been dumped from cabinet to the back bench, and Sussan Ley fills his cabinet vacancy as Health Minister, having previously been Assistant Education Minister. This initiates a game of musical chairs in which Defence goes to Kevin Andrews; Andrews’ portfolio of Social Services goes to Scott Morrison; and Morrison’s portfolio of Immigration and Border Protection goes to Peter Dutton, the former Health Minister.

The promotion of Ley and the departure of Sinodinos leaves two vacancies in the outer ministry, which are filled by the promotion from parliamentary secretary of Josh Frydenberg, who takes Sinodinos’s role, and Simon Birmingham, who takes Ley’s. The second casualty of the reshuffle together with Johnston is Queensland Senator Brett Mason, who has lost his position as parliamentary secretary. The three parliamentary secretary vacancies are filled by Christian Porter, slightly compensating the Western Australian contingent for the dumping of Johnston; and Kelly O’Dwyer and Karen Andrews, who together with Ley’s promotion to cabinet alleviate the front-bench’s glaring deficiency of women.

All of which gives me a helpful opportunity to launch a new thread as the Christmas/New Year poll drought takes hold. There is also the following to relate:

• The one new poll to keep us amused is an Essential Research survey conducted for The Australian, which found Chris Bowen with a narrow 29% to 27% lead over Joe Hockey on the question of “who would you trust to handle the economy”, compared with a lead for Hockey of 34% to 23% in August. More contentiously, respondents were asked to nominate “Australia’s best treasurer of the past 40 years”, but with only five options included – it apparently being taken for granted that no one would nominate Jim Cairns, Bill Hayden, Phillip Lynch, John Kerin, Ralph Willis, John Dawkins or Chris Bowen, even to the extent that no “others” option was included. The responses ran, in order, Peter Costello (30%), Paul Keating (18%), John Howard (12%), Wayne Swan (8%), Joe Hockey (4%). The Australian’s report by Troy Bramston rather audaciously sold this Hockey being “regarded as the worst treasurer of the past 40 years”. Even when better structured than this, I doubt the utility of such polls, which often reflect the degree of competition for the esteem of partisans of one side over the other. It would be more instructive if respondents were rate each contestant in turn favourably or unfavourably. More on this from Kevin Bonham

• Labor is set to have two changes to its Senate line-up early in the new year, the first being the result of John Faulkner’s retirement next month. His vacancy will be filled by Jenny McAllister, the party’s national president and a colleague of Faulkner in the Left, who joined him in advocating for reform to the party’s preselection processes earlier in the year. McAllister was preselected to replace Faulkner in July after he announced he would not contest the next election.

• Labor’s Senate position in the Australian Capital Territory is set to pass from Kate Lundy to Katy Gallagher, following the former’s surprise announcement last month of her intention to retire, and the latter’s resignation from her position as the ACT’s Chief Minister. Lundy will depart on March 31, creating a casual vacancy to be filled by Gallagher the following day. Gallagher was encouraged to take the position by Senator Penny Wong, who shares her alignment with the Left, and Bill Shorten. She has been succeeded as Chief Minister by her former deputy, Andrew Barr, a move which had Gallagher’s endorsement despite Barr’s alignment with the Right.

• Katy Gallagher’s vacancy in the ACT region of Molonglo will be determined by a countback, with reference to Gallagher’s preference votes from the last election. According to Kirsten Lawson of the Canberra Times, “Labor number-crunchers” expect the seat to go to Meegan Fitzharris, chief-of-staff to Andrew Barr, who was the third-strongest performing candidate on Labor’s ticket at the 2012 election with 2.9% of the vote, behind Gallagher (26.2%) and Barr (4.2%). Preferences nonetheless resulted in the third Labor seat going to incumbent Simon Corbell (2.1%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,246 comments on “House of cards”

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  1. Blues Point Tower has all the features you could want for a unit looking over the greatest harbour in the world:

    (a) seven feet high ceilings;;
    (b) slits for windows;
    (c) no balconies.

  2. [(b) slits for windows;]

    Typical of its vintage. Ditto for no balconies.

    A friend of mine lived in a 1960s era Darwin apartment that had a balcony but it was bricked in with strategically placed gaps left in the brickwork, for seeing out of. Not only was it ugly as, but ensured virtually no breezes in the tropical climate.

    Sometimes you just have to wonder at the ‘genius’ of architects.

  3. DF

    Since fools cannot be trained, you must have been born into the condition.

    The catholic church has bastardised me (and many, many more Australians besides) far more than a billion muslims have.

    Right now, my taxes are being used to train priests and to force priests on my grandchildren in secular schools. Rat cunning bastards, they are, using other people’s money to stuff around with the brains of kiddies. Let’s hope that that is all they stuff around with. It is bad enough but it could get a whole lot nastier. They have form.

    All this while a Jesuit-trained cabal of Opus Dei freaks is running the country into the ground.

  4. I’m happy to stand corrected if anyone can provide details of a feminist protest outside mosques or comedians who sink the boot into Islam.

    We can also add our cowardly arts community to the mix. ‘Piss Christ’ is de rigeur but ‘Piss Mohammed’???

  5. BB 2131 I doubt it wont dawn on them at all I reckon – we are conservative it does apply to us – we are born to rule! Shame when they need help the ambulance firee nurse copper SES volunteer will be one those people they despise the most.

  6. DF
    Why don’t you shift to the Vatican. Apparently the comedians there are an absolute riot. Their speciality is taking the piss out of the Pope.

  7. So BW, you have no objection to the execution of children, the enslavement of women and the wholesale slaughter of non-Muslims in the millions?

  8. Desert Fox@2162

    So BW, you have no objection to the execution of children, the enslavement of women and the wholesale slaughter of non-Muslims in the millions?

    Are you talking about the slaughter of Christians by other Christians?

    If so, I agree that it’s very disturbing.

  9. Seidler was never one for holding back on his criticism of architecture stylism. I was in a lecture in the mid 80’s where he described post modernism as “architectural AIDS”.

  10. [So BW, you have no objection to the execution of children, the enslavement of women and the wholesale slaughter of non-Muslims in the millions?]

    Yes, that’s a big problem in Australia.

  11. There are established procedures for making decisions about bail. Soothsaying is not among them. I will not blame a magistrate for making a decision which was justified by the legal rules and the facts at hand. I think it’s really interesting that so many people are convinced that writing offensive letters and being charged with sex offences committed by a slimy “spiritual leader” just screams out: murderous nutter! Repugnant, yes. Murderous? No. I can understand a judge deciding that the history of the accused did not indicate potential to commit murder or to intimidate witnesses or to abscond. I think some of the soothsayers are wasted in their current roles. They should get themselves to law school, qualify as barristers, and give the nation the benefit of their presience.

    Th Sydney siege was in no way foreseeable on the basis of the material before the judge. The accessory to murder after the fact charge did not indicate a threat to public safety. I don’t believe that the judge was presented with evidence of someone so unstable and prone to violence that it would pose an unacceptable risk to the public to let him live in the community during his trial.

    The 20/20 hindsight armchair magistrates should spell out the legal basis for refusing bail in that case. There are many countries in this world in which bail is rarely granted. We are damn lucky to have bail routinely granted for all but the most dangerous defendants.

  12. Memorable quotes from 2014.

    Magistrate William Pierce, who granted bail to Martin Place terrorist Man Monis and his wife Amirah Droudis after they were charged with the murder of Monis’s previous wife, Noleen Hayson Pal.

    “Are they a threat to other people? No they are not. If there was a threat it was to this woman who was murdered,” Mr Pierce said.

    How long will it be before he gets dumped?

    he shouldn’t be dumped. there was no evidence presented that identified Monis was threat.

    Perhaps Magistrates should be issued crystal ball.s

  13. The bail thing for Monis is a red herring.

    Bail will only be refused for murderers, drug runners or those who wantonly breach earlier bail orders or those with dud legal representation.

    I would like to know where he got the gun and ammo and the money to fund the Borat style kit.

  14. Well said Carey!

    “Yes, that’s a big problem in Australia.”

    I thought the left dealt with international problems. I thought that was their specialty. You know, global warming et al.

  15. Wow that Ch9 story is an absolute JBishop puff piece. And while she might reiterate that she isn’t going to play that ambition game for the leadership of her party, she was quick to point out that it was her behind the MH17 access and other diplomatic achievements and not ABbott, thereby leaving her leader swinging in the breeze.

    Interesting start to 2015 for the govt. That leadership stuff doesn’t look to be going anywhere just yet. 🙂

  16. So Nicholas et al, we just have to wait, twiddling our thumbs until the next one comes along? I’m all ears, tell us how you would stop these attacks?

  17. Just on the Sydney magistrates (there are several) who have granted Man Monis bail over the years, I am led to believe that they range across the spectrum – from senile fuddy duddy to brilliant pillar of the bench.

  18. Desert Fox@2179

    So Nicholas et al, we just have to wait, twiddling our thumbs until the next one comes along? I’m all ears, tell us how you would stop these attacks?

    What do you recommend, detaining you and all the other right-wing nut jobs?

  19. Desert Fox@2177


    I thought the left dealt with international problems. I thought that was their specialty. You know, global warming et al.

    So you believe global warming is a problem? I’m relieved that we have made at least this much progress!

  20. Desert Fox, stop pretending you understand what you’re talking about. It just makes you look even more stupid.

    You were arguing about domestic terrorism, then tried to conflate the issue with genocide and religious oppression in another part of the world in a very clumsy and blatant attempt at a strawman argument.

    You know what? You’ve lost the argument. End of story. Acquaint yourself, at least, with the elementary facts of something before you argue about it and be consistent. This debate is over – you lose.

  21. Desert Fox

    Posted Friday, December 26, 2014 at 9:05 pm | Permalink

    So BW, you have no objection to the execution of children, the enslavement of women and the wholesale slaughter of non-Muslims in the millions?

    even the most minor of research shows that Christianity has no claim to the moral high ground when it comes to the murder/mistreatment/maltreatment/bastardisation/torture of people who do not kowtow to their beliefs.

  22. [shellbell
    Posted Friday, December 26, 2014 at 9:19 pm | Permalink

    The bail thing for Monis is a red herring.

    Bail will only be refused for murderers, drug runners or those who wantonly breach earlier bail orders or those with dud legal representation.

    I would like to know where he got the gun and ammo and the money to fund the Borat style kit.]

    Yep.

    Some other questions that need to be answered:

    (1) Why was Monis put on a watch list?
    (2) Why was Monis taken off the watch list?
    (3) What is the text of the warning phoned through by the anonymous tipster 24 hourse before Monis went feral?
    (4) Did someone match the tip with the data on Monis which should have switched him back on the watch list?
    (5) If not, why not?
    (6) Why, given the escalating evidence that Monis was involved in a violent death, was no representation made, by ASIO or the AFP, to the Magistrate to stop Monis getting bail on national security grounds?
    (7) What warning, exactly, did Iran give Australia in relation to Monis?
    (8) Why did Abbott, who was prone as the LOTO to urge PMs to pick up a phone and fix a problem, not pick up a phone to try to talk the perp in an effort to stop unnecessary deaths?
    (9) Did Abbott endanger national security by alerting terrorists that the security agencies were onto them?
    (10) Why, given that the security agencies had been watching at least one of the two perps for a long time, did they choose the day after Abbott’s public warning?
    (11) When did the police learn that one of the two perps was armed with three weapons?

    So what does the Grean Unicorn Pointer do to the TOR because he was shit-scared that the Australian public was onto him?

    Abbott wanted to know what social security Monis got.

    All the other leaners had better watch out.

  23. See, I look at religious genocide and see that not as a sign that Islam, Christianity or goddamn Zoroastrianism is inherently evil but rather the danger of holding a viewpoint with such zeal that you’re willing to do immoral and unspeakable things to preserve them.

    This also includes those who aren’t necessarily violent but deny scientific reality because it conflicts with that viewpoint.

  24. The original Desert Fox blew his brains out in response to blackmail by Hitler.

    The deal was this: Rommel topped himself or Hitler rounded up him and his family for the meat-hook treatment.

    For Rommel, it was him or his family.

    Those muslims!

  25. Shellbell,

    The gun was illegally obtained, a point lost on the anti-gun lobby. Australia is awash with illegal guns which invariably end up with the likes of Monis and co. Even if you banned all guns outside the police and military, criminals would still get them. The problem is that the penalty for illegal possession is pathetically weak.

  26. BW

    Maybe the AFP could investigate how Cabinet security discussions appear the next day in the Daily ToiletPaper?

    Seems a bizzare way to run a government

  27. Carey M:

    Totally agree. You get the sense JBishop is being prepared as the go to person should Abbott’s leadership become untenable.

  28. bemused @2134

    [The fact that it is NORMAL points to a major problem.

    Retailers here are getting screwed by the authorised channels for imported goods with the overseas manufacturers and exporters charging way too much to land goods in Australia.]

    I agree. To add to that, direct to consumers online retailing by Microsoft, Adobe and Apple already charge consumers many times the prices they charge elsewhere.

    Since the servers are the same ones used overseas, there is virtually no added cost to operational cost since no local staff is utilised, including tech support.

    I doubt duties and taxes add the cost to be in multiples of overseas prices.

  29. Another point Carey, shouldn’t we start calling the Green movement a religion??? They talk about Mother Earth and offer prayers to Gaia.

    Sir James Lovelock, in his book Gaia: ‘A new look at Life’, states that “all of the lifeforms on this planet are a part of Gaia – part of one spirit goddess that sustains life on earth. Since this transformation into a living system the interventions of Gaia have brought about the evolving diversity of living creatures on planet Earth.” Gaians teach that the “Earth Goddess”, or Mother Earth, must be protected from destructive human activity. It is this belief that fuels the environmental movement, sustainable development, and a global push for the return of industrialized nations to a more primitive way of life.

    Sure sounds like a religion to me.

  30. Shell,

    What I’m saying is that ultimately the only people with guns will be crooks. You and I can’t have a gun but bad guys can have as many as they want.

  31. Raaraa@2194

    bemused @2134

    The fact that it is NORMAL points to a major problem.

    Retailers here are getting screwed by the authorised channels for imported goods with the overseas manufacturers and exporters charging way too much to land goods in Australia.


    I agree. To add to that, direct to consumers online retailing by Microsoft, Adobe and Apple already charge consumers many times the prices they charge elsewhere.

    Since the servers are the same ones used overseas, there is virtually no added cost to operational cost since no local staff is utilised, including tech support.

    I doubt duties and taxes add the cost to be in multiples of overseas prices.

    Years ago had a mate who worked as a sales rep for the local subsidiary of a US company which manufactured and sold office equipment.

    He told me how the local subsidiary was supplied at FULL US RETAIL and then told: “There you are fellas, go make your mark-up on that!”

    I suspect that is pretty much how things still operate.

  32. Desert Fox@2197

    Shell,

    What I’m saying is that ultimately the only people with guns will be crooks. You and I can’t have a gun but bad guys can have as many as they want.

    I am relieved to know that you can’t have a gun.

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