House of cards

Tony Abbott takes the opportunity of Arthur Sinodinos’s departure to strengthen his cabinet team/rearrange the deckchairs. Left untouched is Joe Hockey, whose mounting unpopularity is confirmed by an Essential Research poll.

Tony Abbott has reshuffled his cabinet in response to Assistant Treasurer Arthur Sinodinos’s announcement of his decision to step down, together with the government’s general state of disarray. The principal changes are that Defence Minister David Johnston has been dumped from cabinet to the back bench, and Sussan Ley fills his cabinet vacancy as Health Minister, having previously been Assistant Education Minister. This initiates a game of musical chairs in which Defence goes to Kevin Andrews; Andrews’ portfolio of Social Services goes to Scott Morrison; and Morrison’s portfolio of Immigration and Border Protection goes to Peter Dutton, the former Health Minister.

The promotion of Ley and the departure of Sinodinos leaves two vacancies in the outer ministry, which are filled by the promotion from parliamentary secretary of Josh Frydenberg, who takes Sinodinos’s role, and Simon Birmingham, who takes Ley’s. The second casualty of the reshuffle together with Johnston is Queensland Senator Brett Mason, who has lost his position as parliamentary secretary. The three parliamentary secretary vacancies are filled by Christian Porter, slightly compensating the Western Australian contingent for the dumping of Johnston; and Kelly O’Dwyer and Karen Andrews, who together with Ley’s promotion to cabinet alleviate the front-bench’s glaring deficiency of women.

All of which gives me a helpful opportunity to launch a new thread as the Christmas/New Year poll drought takes hold. There is also the following to relate:

• The one new poll to keep us amused is an Essential Research survey conducted for The Australian, which found Chris Bowen with a narrow 29% to 27% lead over Joe Hockey on the question of “who would you trust to handle the economy”, compared with a lead for Hockey of 34% to 23% in August. More contentiously, respondents were asked to nominate “Australia’s best treasurer of the past 40 years”, but with only five options included – it apparently being taken for granted that no one would nominate Jim Cairns, Bill Hayden, Phillip Lynch, John Kerin, Ralph Willis, John Dawkins or Chris Bowen, even to the extent that no “others” option was included. The responses ran, in order, Peter Costello (30%), Paul Keating (18%), John Howard (12%), Wayne Swan (8%), Joe Hockey (4%). The Australian’s report by Troy Bramston rather audaciously sold this Hockey being “regarded as the worst treasurer of the past 40 years”. Even when better structured than this, I doubt the utility of such polls, which often reflect the degree of competition for the esteem of partisans of one side over the other. It would be more instructive if respondents were rate each contestant in turn favourably or unfavourably. More on this from Kevin Bonham

• Labor is set to have two changes to its Senate line-up early in the new year, the first being the result of John Faulkner’s retirement next month. His vacancy will be filled by Jenny McAllister, the party’s national president and a colleague of Faulkner in the Left, who joined him in advocating for reform to the party’s preselection processes earlier in the year. McAllister was preselected to replace Faulkner in July after he announced he would not contest the next election.

• Labor’s Senate position in the Australian Capital Territory is set to pass from Kate Lundy to Katy Gallagher, following the former’s surprise announcement last month of her intention to retire, and the latter’s resignation from her position as the ACT’s Chief Minister. Lundy will depart on March 31, creating a casual vacancy to be filled by Gallagher the following day. Gallagher was encouraged to take the position by Senator Penny Wong, who shares her alignment with the Left, and Bill Shorten. She has been succeeded as Chief Minister by her former deputy, Andrew Barr, a move which had Gallagher’s endorsement despite Barr’s alignment with the Right.

• Katy Gallagher’s vacancy in the ACT region of Molonglo will be determined by a countback, with reference to Gallagher’s preference votes from the last election. According to Kirsten Lawson of the Canberra Times, “Labor number-crunchers” expect the seat to go to Meegan Fitzharris, chief-of-staff to Andrew Barr, who was the third-strongest performing candidate on Labor’s ticket at the 2012 election with 2.9% of the vote, behind Gallagher (26.2%) and Barr (4.2%). Preferences nonetheless resulted in the third Labor seat going to incumbent Simon Corbell (2.1%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,246 comments on “House of cards”

Comments Page 43 of 45
1 42 43 44 45
  1. Raaraa@2097

    bemused @2063

    They can be identified and blacklisted for “special treatment”. They will soon learn their lesson.


    Blacklisting the buyer or the seller?

    The seller.

    Yes, it will not be without problems, but if a seller wishes to do any volume of business with Australians, they will want to have their declarations trusted and shipments not held up.

    Compliance will be easy to achieve with the big ones which account for a large proportion of sales and have most to lose.

    If a few small ones won’t comply it will not be too much of hole in revenue and if they grow big enough they will eventually be caught.

  2. Freudenberg and Abbott…a perfect pair
    _____________________
    Both educated in rich private schools amongst the most exclusive in Australia…one from a rich right-wing catholic background the other from a rich jewish background…Toorak and the North Shore !

    Both supporters of the neo-liberal economic viewpoint with no interest in social justice

    a perfect example of upper-class politics …and class war policies

    quite loathsome

  3. Trying to claim GST on purchases under $1000 is more important to Abbott and Hockey than fixing the loopholes and tax avoidance of the multinationals? Would make a good argument for Labor to pursue in the public domain.

    Tom.

  4. deblonay@2102

    Freudenberg and Abbott…a perfect pair
    _____________________
    Both educated in rich private schools amongst the most exclusive in Australia…one from a rich right-wing catholic background the other from a rich jewish background…Toorak and the North Shore !

    Both supporters of the neo-liberal economic viewpoint with no interest in social justice

    a perfect example of upper-class politics …and class war policies

    quite loathsome

    Is your hatred directed at Gough Whitlam’s great speech writer?

    Why?

    You should perhaps go after Josh Frydenberg.

  5. Tom@2103

    Trying to claim GST on purchases under $1000 is more important to Abbott and Hockey than fixing the loopholes and tax avoidance of the multinationals? Would make a good argument for Labor to pursue in the public domain.

    Tom.

    I would go after both.

  6. In my experience, the the 2 main problems that people (who are not right wingers who just want the union movement crushed) have with the ALP-Union relationship is:

    1) The sentiment that the union leadership is just an old boys club that are using the resources at their disposal to further their own personal interests, of which includes, getting plum government positions and political influence via the ALP.

    2) The belief that the ALP exclusively represents the unions and their agendas and that anybody else, with a centre-left viewpoint who isn’t associated with a union has no place in the ALP.

    These are the perceptions that need to be tackled. We can do that by dispelling the myths and fixing any of the elements of truth in the perceptions.

  7. You would think that it would be within the abilities of Customs to add up the declared value of all shipments from a given seller in one year and inform the ATO about any exceeding the $75k limit for GST registration.

  8. Returning to a subject from earlier in the month, it seems to me that the problem of unpasturised “raw milk” being sold notionally for cosmetic uses but with a wink-wink arrangement that it’s actually for drinking can be solved by requiring unpasturised bath milk to have a bittering agent added.

  9. caf@2109

    Returning to a subject from earlier in the month, it seems to me that the problem of unpasturised “raw milk” being sold notionally for cosmetic uses but with a wink-wink arrangement that it’s actually for drinking can be solved by requiring unpasturised bath milk to have a bittering agent added.

    Good thought.

  10. Re Carey Moore @2107:
    [“1) The sentiment that the union leadership is just an old boys club that are using the resources at their disposal to further their own personal interests, of which includes, getting plum government positions and political influence via the ALP.”]

    And the Business Council of Australia, the Minerals Council of Australia, the IPA are?

    I don’t disagree with your statement but the other side is just as beholden to it’s big backers, probably more so. As pure as driven slush (funds).

  11. [Returning to a subject from earlier in the month, it seems to me that the problem of unpasturised “raw milk” being sold notionally for cosmetic uses but with a wink-wink arrangement that it’s actually for drinking can be solved by requiring unpasturised bath milk to have a bittering agent added.]

    That’s a pretty good idea. Maybe a colouring too, to make it look different than milk.

  12. Carey 2107,

    Agreed…And you don’t have to be a liberal to believe the first. I’m a fairly hard leftie and strong advocate of Trade Unions, but I despair at the way they become their own vested interests over time and become more and more part of the establishment.

  13. 2112

    Not allowing it to be sold in the same bottle design as milk and from the same fridges as food and drink would be a start.

  14. [And the Business Council of Australia, the Minerals Council of Australia, the IPA are?

    I don’t disagree with your statement but the other side is just as beholden to it’s big backers, probably more so. As pure as driven slush (funds).]

    Agreed. And we should be making an issue of that as well – whether it’s to make them look bad or to make them clean up their own act.

    Either way, our problems don’t go away just because the other side has worse ones.

  15. GST could be collected on all consumer imports simply by making the banks collect it and remit to the ATO.

    This should be applicable to all remittances. If the purchase is GST-free, the remitting party would be able to claim refund.

    The system would be designed to collect tax from sellers on transactions inside Australia and from buyers on transactions completed outside Australia.

    It would be conceptually easy. The banks would become the responsible remitting entities. There would be quite low compliance costs. This could all be done using software.

  16. Just returned from my Day at the Boxing day Test where me and 70,000 of my friends congregated to watch the on going evolution of the wonderful game of cricket. I did wave. I was the one wearing a hat.

    Can’t say it was the most riveting day since no one made a hundred or took a five wicket haul and the catching and fielding was average.

    However, as always the day was fascinating. The wicket seemed little two paced and will probably play lower and slower as the game progresses. Aussies with 260 in the bank are well placed. If they get to 400 tomorrow, put the house on them. The Indians will need to bat extremely well to win from there.

    A few observations:

    Dhoni is a poor keeper and the number of dropped/fumbled balls seems to be the standard.

    The Aussie (apart from Warner) got themselves out by impatience and poor shot selection. Some of these guys have had more than enough opportunities. As always it is harder to get out of the Aussie team than in.

    Haddin is gone as a test match batsman. His feet move slowly and his reflexes are poor. He’s going to get hurt if he persists. Not sure if it’s age or reflexes but standing there and being hit by bowlers thundering them down at 140k is not a hobby for the smart.

    The Indian quicks were very inconsistent. When they let rip and got the speed up over the 140k number they worried all the batsmen. When they didn’t they were played rather easily.

    The crowd was very subdued and the Indian supporters are a very happy and polite bunch. However, they can give the beating drums a rest from my perspective.

    The last time the Indians were here there were never ending incursions by water boys, physiotherapists and the odd seagull which really slowed the game down. Today, the Indians bowled 91 overs in the normal allotted six hours play. No overtime. No excuses. Should be a message to all the teams.

    Hopefully, I get to go again tomorrow.

  17. Maybe Dhoni’s worried they’ll take the captaincy off him if he’s suspended for another test and his replacement is so successful.

  18. [The last time the Indians were here there were never ending incursions by water boys, physiotherapists and the odd seagull which really slowed the game down. Today, the Indians bowled 91 overs in the normal allotted six hours play. No overtime. No excuses. Should be a message to all the teams.]

    Spot on. I said that to my housemate today. You can bowl 90 overs in 6 hours. There’s no excuse for the current ridiculous trend of the full 90 not being bowled in a day (even with the extra half hour!) I suspect the referee has said that there will be zero tolerance of slow over rates for now on.

    Frankly, I think they should look into in-game penalties for it as well.

  19. the,

    From what I saw Dhoni’s captaincy was very uninspiring. No daring. No we are two down, so let’s try something adventurous for him. The game plan seems to be bowl wide of off stump and mix it up with bouncers and wait till the Aussie get themselves out.

    This why they are susceptible to crumbling when the blow torch is fired up. They have no plan B.

  20. [Dhoni is a poor keeper and the number of dropped/fumbled balls seems to be the standard.]

    He’s also not a very courageous captain. Some of the field placings today were in WTF territory, and allowing the crap bowling we saw from some of their bowlers? Again, WTF.

  21. Just been wandering around hobart port. Beautiful area ruined with some seriously ugly buildings. The grand chancellor hotel gets my nomination as the ugliest thing on planet earth

  22. Just back from an afternoon out at HI’s ex-husband’s family home. All Liberal supporters, but don’t mind an argument.

    Today’s subject was disability pensions.

    “They’re all on them. And they’re all bludgers,” would sum up their position. Also the Old Faithful: “Anyone can get a job if they want it,” and “Why has Byron Bay got the biggest Centrelink office in Australia?” (I don’t know if this is true).

    They believe it is about time Scott Morrison “cleaned out the bludgers”, that he will do so, and that the Abbott government will ride a wave of electoral popularity as a result and will easily trounce Labor at the next election because of it.

    The women – HI’s ex’s new wife, her sisters, her sister’s lesbian girlfriend etc. – all work in IT recruitment, so they class themselves as experts on the subject of people not wanting jobs, especially Lebanese people plotting Zombie Jihad while “on disability”.

    Then in walked one of their daughters. The daughter is disabled, with a relatively middle range case of cerebral palsy. There are some indications of savantism as well. She can remember the name of every town in the atlas of every country (hamlets and villages included) and their geographical co-ordinates.

    But she can’t get a job.

    She’d heard our conversation and joined in. I can’t understand a word she says, but her aunt translated their conversation for me. Roughly: “I’m too disabled to get a job, aren’t I?”

    “Yes, of course you are, darling.”

    “I have to go to school, don’t I?” (Inala school, a Steiner organization for mature-aged people with disabilities).

    “Yes, of course you do. And you have to visit your friends. You simply don’t have time to go to work. You get tired too, don’t you?”

    “Yes I do.”

    So, I thought, this was a case of these people having a disabled daughter in their household, who was of course (in their minds) genuinely incapable of work in leafy Hornsby, Sydney, NSW, but those Lebbos… they’re all bludgers and rorters. They don’t know any Lebbos “on disability”, but they know they are bludgers and rorters. Just not their daughter. She’s the real deal disabled.

    I’m very fond of their daughter, and she of me, so I didn’t want to embarrass her any further by continuing the argument, but I have a horrible feeling that this family – with their Inala school, and their trips for their daughter to see her friends and all the rest of it – is in for a rude shock when Scott morrison turns his heartless eyes in their direction.

    The truth of the matter is that she could work, even for a day a week, but they have organized it – rorted it, if you like – for her to be “not available” when the time comes. They don’t see the irony of their position, but I think they are going to, real soon.

  23. AA

    [They can add GST. Goods will still be around 40-50% cheaper than buying in the shops.]

    This is normal. Currently there are many goods above $1000 that are still cheaper imported with taxes than bought locally.

  24. Raaraa@2132

    AA

    They can add GST. Goods will still be around 40-50% cheaper than buying in the shops.


    This is normal. Currently there are many goods above $1000 that are still cheaper imported with taxes than bought locally.

    The fact that it is NORMAL points to a major problem.

    Retailers here are getting screwed by the authorised channels for imported goods with the overseas manufacturers and exporters charging way too much to land goods in Australia.

  25. Raaraa

    Posted Friday, December 26, 2014 at 7:56 pm | Permalink

    AA

    They can add GST. Goods will still be around 40-50% cheaper than buying in the shops.

    This is normal. Currently there are many goods above $1000 that are still cheaper imported with taxes than bought locally.

    The GST won’t stop people shopping on-line. It will raise money for the Govt and introduce a whole new book of red tape….what did Abbott say about red tape again???

  26. Sheer vandalism.

    WTF(ig) Who allowed that ruination of the collective community scenic property? They should be made to pull it down with just sledgehammers and handsaws.

  27. [
    Dhoni is a poor keeper and the number of dropped/fumbled balls seems to be the standard.
    ]

    It’s hard to believe MS Dohni is the highest earning Cricketer in the world ($30 Million a year apparently). Still, good luck to him for getting the most out of his talent. And yes, India does generate the most money so it’s not a total shock that an Indian player is the highest earner.

  28. STEVE – Blues Point is bad, but you really have to see some of the rubbish cluttering up hobart port. Makes me want to cry.

  29. Blue Point tower is on the heritage list. Seilder said of it…
    “Come on, this is old news, stupid bloody nonsense, I’m sick to death of it. … I’ve always thought Blues Point Tower is one of my best buildings and I stand by that. Anybody who can’t see anything in it ought to go back to school.”

    To be fair to the building and Seidler, it was meant to be a part of a large group of high rise on the point – which was going to be zoned industrial before Seidler (i think) persuaded them to go for high density residential. But after the first was built, the planners/councillors changed their minds.

  30. [Re K17 @2127: surely not worse than Blues Point Tower in Sydney:

    Sheer vandalism.]

    While I can understand Sydney folk being up in arms at the proximity to the bridge, the tower itself is nothing to write home about. For mine, if you’re going to make an architectural statement so close to a national landmark, then it needs to be either beautiful or in keeping with its surrounding. That tower is neither.

  31. Memorable quotes from 2014.

    Magistrate William Pierce, who granted bail to Martin Place terrorist Man Monis and his wife Amirah Droudis after they were charged with the murder of Monis’s previous wife, Noleen Hayson Pal.

    “Are they a threat to other people? No they are not. If there was a threat it was to this woman who was murdered,” Mr Pierce said.

    How long will it be before he gets dumped?

  32. http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/09/27/1032734319538.html

    [It was in this climate that Blues Point Tower was to rise on the harbour foreshore, on the site of a former mansion owned by a gold-mining magnate. To those who had fought against his Bauhausian vision of the city, it must have been seen as an act of defiance, an 85-metre brick and concrete digit; Seidler’s extended middle finger that seemed to say: “Up yours, you visually illiterate philistines; this is the future.” And so it was.]

Comments Page 43 of 45
1 42 43 44 45

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *