Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research produces yet more disastrous personal ratings for Tony Abbott, and turns the knife with a finding that suggests salvation for the Coalition is only as far away as Julie Bishop.

The latest result from Essential Research has both major parties a point down on the primary vote, in both cases from 40% to 39%. This makes room for increases of one point for the Greens and two points to others, both now at 10%, while Palmer United is now at 2%, which I believe to be a new low. Also featured are Essential Research’s regular monthly personal ratings, which offer yet another belting for Tony Abbott, who is down seven points on approval to 32% and up five on disapproval to 55%. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and up one on disapproval to 39%, and has opened up a 36-31 lead on preferred prime minister after trailing 36-34 last time.

There’s also results on how various politicians have performed over the past year, which are predictable in direction but very interesting in degree. Tony Abbott, Joe Hockey and, more excusably, Christine Milne have equally poor net ratings of minus 22%, minus 24% and minus 23% respectively (Milne having an undecided rating quite a bit higher than the other two). The big eye-openers are Clive Palmer at minus 50% and Julie Bishop at plus 28%. Rather less interestingly, Bill Shorten is at minus 5%.

The poll also finds the issues respondents most want addressed over the coming year are improving the health system and reducing unemployment, with less concern for public transport investment, environmental protection, investment in roads and, in last place, free trade agreements. Respondents also deem it to have been a bad year for pretty much everything, most especially “Australian politics in general” at minus 53% (which is still an improvement on minus 62% last year&#148), the only exceptions being large companies and corporations (plus 14%) and “you and your family overall” (plus 3%).

A semi-regular question on same-sex marriage records weaker support than the particularly strong showing in June, at 55% (down five) with 32% opposed (up four).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

682 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 6 of 14
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  1. [Foreign Minister Julie Bishop has insisted that heavy emitters take more responsibility to curb global warming, as negotiators at climate talks in Lima pored over draft outlines for a United Nations pact.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/25728552/bishop-demands-climate-action/

    WTF? Per capita Australia is one of the heaviest emitters yet we have just scrapped effective mitigation measures and now effectively are doing nothing to reduce GHGEs.

    Unbelievable hypocrisy.

  2. [victoria
    Posted Wednesday, December 10, 2014 at 8:50 am | PERMALINK
    Darn

    Dutton was interviewed on ABC radio earlier. He is very optimistic that he has enough support of the senate xbench to pass these changes.]

    Vic

    As Mandy Rice-Davies so eloquently put it, “he would say that wouldn’t he?” I doubt very much that Dutton would know what day it is let alone what the senate cross benchers are thinking.

  6. [Renewables are not only an environmental must-have. They are an economic must-have, and a defence must-have as well.]

    As I think has been noted here before, the US military is one of the biggest investors in renewables and it isn’t through some broader concern for environmental sustainability or social justice.

  7. [Abbott says that doctors were consulted about the changes.

    The AMA says that it was told about the changes a few minutes before the announcement.]

    Abbott telling porkies. 😮

    I’m shocked. Shocked I tells ya.

  9. Darn

    …but it allows the media to paint Abbott as someone who was willing to be flexible, and the Senate as unreasonably preventing the government from tackling ‘the problem’.

    Of course, if voters don’t accept there is a problem that needs to be tackled (and tackled in this way) it won’t work – but the media will be able to look all bewildered and hand out Darwin Awards with a clear conscience.

  10. Rocket Rocket@188

    In 1999 in Victoria Labor won 43 out of 88 seats. “Anti-Labor” candidates won 45, a majority. I’m glad that Steve Bracks and co. negotiated with some of those “anti-Labor” MLA’s and formed government, bringing the Kennett era to an end.

    I can imagine some other people may have done things very differently.

    You play with the cards you are dealt.

    Labor now has to deal with 2 LOONS in the Assembly and an unknown number in the LC.

    Of course I favour dealing with them, but certainly not any formal alliance or anything of the sort.

  11. [victoria
    Posted Wednesday, December 10, 2014 at 9:03 am | PERMALINK
    And btw Dutton is also considering an advertising campaign re the medicare changes. Wtf!!    ]

    Don’t despair Vic. Remember Howard’s workchoices ads? All they did was drive the Labor vote up further. People don’t trust this government and that is the angle that Shorten needs to be hammering now.

  12. Ms Bishop’s immediate diplomatic concern, apart from trying to gut the Other Woman, is to protect the Great Barrier Reef – not from acid run-off, not from farm and urban chemical run-off, not from dredging for coal ports, not from ship crashes, not from overfishing, not from increasing acidity of the oceans, not from coral bleaching, not from increased violent and destructive storm events, but from being RATED as ‘endangered’.

    Now, how embarrassment would that be?

  13. [even though I don’t think she was having a go at McGowan this morning]

    Yeah, Z was having a go at the Border Mail, which is even more understandable.

    [So not even nearly $500,000]
    I note the BM have added unspecified “administration costs” (which presumably have been incurred in any case) in their $500k ‘calculation’.

  14. and zoomster

    I will never forget your incredibly prescient post after the 2010 Federal election where you said that a well-resourced grassroots campaign for a good independent member could defeat Sophie Mirabella in Indi.

    I have relatives in Indi and I just didn’t think that was possible, but you turned out to be right.

  16. v

    How could forget ‘breaking the chains’? Who would now willingly adopt any explanation for making the Howard’s new chains even heavier?

  18. Gottliebsen –

    [ Despite last night’s small oil price recovery, there is no doubt that the Saudis have decided to drive down the price of oil and ause a large number of American shale oil and gas producers to cease production and possibly go broke…

    …the higher cost African producers there will be further misery and possibly terror. In the case of Russia we should not forget that, while the Russian communist system was unstable, the actual trigger for its collapse was a dramatic fall in the oil price in the late 1980s.

    ….Back in Australia we must appear to outsiders to be about the stupidest nation on earth. We have exported most of our gas at prices that were linked to the oil price, which means that we will lose money on the exports because of the bloated cost of our huge LNG plants and the high cost of extracting coal gas.

    Having exported our gas at a loss we have limited gas for our domestic eastern states requirements. We may have to pay high prices for gas to enable new fields to be developed. So here is the lucky country that, having exported our gas at losing prices, must pay through the nose for domestic gas. And if the export price falls far enough we might even have some of our export gas companies go broke.

    When the community realises that the combination of bad federal and state government policies plus appalling corporate management has created this situation, there will be great anger. ]

  20. [victoria
    Posted Wednesday, December 10, 2014 at 9:10 am | PERMALINK
    Darn

    The GST advertising campaign worked. It got Howard over the line]

    Vic

    The only thing that got Howard over the line was the huge number of seats Labor had to win. Beazley won the 2pp but the votes didn’t fall in the right places.

  21. Fess
    [WTF? Per capita Australia is one of the heaviest emitters yet we have just scrapped effective mitigation measures and now effectively are doing nothing to reduce GHGEs.]
    Just a vehicle for taking a cheap shot and China and diverting attention from Australia. Bishop is not talking “per capita”

  22. Darn

    [Vic

    The only thing that got Howard over the line was the huge number of seats Labor had to win. Beazley won the 2pp but the votes didn’t fall in the right places.]

    Good point

  23. Boerwar

    I am waiting for Abbott and co to make the case for increasing the GST. And tell us that it is not an increase at all, but an efficiency dividend

  24. dave

    We are definitely becoming known as the stupidiest country on earth

    [Having exported our gas at a loss we have limited gas for our domestic eastern states requirements. We may have to pay high prices for gas to enable new fields to be developed. So here is the lucky country that, having exported our gas at losing prices, must pay through the nose for domestic gas. And if the export price falls far enough we might even have some of our export gas companies go broke.

    When the community realises that the combination of bad federal and state government policies plus appalling corporate management has created this situation, there will be great anger.]

  26. Oh goody ! This could be good . Ukraine president Poroshenko is about to visit. Another golden opportunity for PM International Embarrassment to enhance his reputation.

  28. BW & Vic

    Governments put the Companies involved ahead of the public to start with, (as they do so often).

    After all who’s fcuking gas is it to start with ?

    Paying big dollops of cash to CEO’s etc to anticipate and prepare for a range of situations etc worked a treat yet again.

  29. Another day another backflip . Australia will now put money into the Climate Change Fund, $200 million. But being the LNP they are just taking the money from the foreign aid budget,

  30. [victoria
    Posted Wednesday, December 10, 2014 at 9:35 am | PERMALINK
    Meanwhile here in vic state , I am patiently awaiting for Dan Andrews to release the east west contracts and business case    ]

    Me too. I think Andrews needs to be very careful here. He cannot afford to start off with a trust deficit like Abbott did. There has already been an announcement this morning to the effect that the second rail tunnel will not be going ahead because of lack of federal funding. Perhaps he will be able to sheet it all back to the feds but at the moment it is being touted as a broken promise. (and one that I must say has shocked and dismayed me, so I doubt that it will go over very well in the broader community).

    Perhaps there is more to tell that will shed some positive light on it for the new government.

  31. Darn

    Reading the piece about Pakula, as usual the headline over-eggs it a bit. Pakula is saying that we can’t afford to proceed immediately with the rail tunnel, but hasn’t dismissed it for evcer, and I think he’s hoping to negotiate with the Feds.

  32. [Ukraine president Poroshenko is about to visit. Another golden opportunity for PM International Embarrassment to enhance his reputation.]

    Let me guess: Australia is the best friend Ukraine has got.

  33. I think you will find it was Pallas. He has also said on the news this morning it will go ahead with or without fed spending. It will just take longer.

  35. Thanks for that Lizzie. I figured it was probably something like that. I suspect that Andrews will be trying to put political pressure on Abbott over his roads only policy.

    The good news is that the mickey mouse Fishermans Bend tunnel the Libs came up with has been dropped before any real damage could be done.

  37. p

    That $200 million backflip is very interesting, IMHO.

    It reinforces the possibility that Biship, who is probably more exposed to the international climate response than anyone else in Cabinet, is coming to her climate senses – if for no other reason than that she does not personally enjoy being the perenniel pariah.

    Hockey probably said to her that if you want to do something it has to be offset from within her portfolio which is SOP during times of budget stringency.

  38. [Gary
    Posted Wednesday, December 10, 2014 at 9:59 am | PERMALINK
    I think you will find it was Pallas. He has also said on the news this morning it will go ahead with or without fed spending. It will just take longer.    ]

    That’s excellent news Gary. The news service I heard was very early and did not include that response by Pallas.

  39. poroti

    [Another day another backflip . Australia will now put money into the Climate Change Fund, $200 million. But being the LNP they are just taking the money from the foreign aid budget]

    That last sentence wasn’t mentioned on the 10am news.

    No mention about it coming from the Foreign Aid Budget.

    Bishop trying to look good overseas when actually doing nothing.

    Geez!

  41. [poroti
    Posted Wednesday, December 10, 2014 at 9:48 am | PERMALINK
    Another day another backflip . Australia will now put money into the Climate Change Fund, $200 million    ]

    It seems the Lying Friar is being dragged kicking and screaming into the real world. As Kissinger once famously said in relation to the Vietnam conflict “when you’ve got them by the balls their hearts and minds will follow”.

  42. One aspect of this backflip con that hasn’t received much attention is the government’s assertion that this measure will garner almost as much revenue as the previous proposal.

    So $2.00 less from fewer patients will generate the similar revenue? Peter Martin examines another ‘tricky’ aspect of this ill though out policy:

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/the-gp-copayment-trick-that-purports-to-save-35-billion-20141209-123i8z

  43. 284
    William Bowe
    [Posted Wednesday, December 10, 2014 at 10:02 am | PERMALINK
    The “unchain my heart” ads ran after the 1998 election, not before.]

    Oopsy my bad

  44. [ I am waiting for Abbott and co to make the case for increasing the GST. And tell us that it is not an increase at all, but an efficiency dividend ]

    They seem to have gone a bit quiet on the GST issue. 🙂

    Perhaps a bit of battening down the hatches before MYEFO comes out?? I dont reckon there will EVER be a good time to touch that one until they have done a lot of other work on the revenue side of the budget which they seem to be ideologicaly incapable of doing.

    [ But being the LNP they are just taking the money from the foreign aid budget, ]

    Dont worry lizzie, Julie has already told us any cuts to her dept are all the ALP’s fault so they have that one covered.

  47. I often wonder how Coalition supporters reason. It’s all in the communications, apparently. Who else thinks that Napthine or Abbott are “visionary”.

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/12/10/national-affairs/abbotts-policy-muddle-taking-its-toll

    [In Victoria it was clear that corrupt building unions would and will control the new Labor government. But this did not stop voters from rejecting the Coalition.

    The Victorian Coalition government was highly competent. It controlled debt by tackling the public sector unions and limiting pay rises. It had visionary infrastructures projects. Yes it lacked clarity and focus in their communication. It suffered from chaos because of a rogue ex-Liberal MP who controlled the balance of power in the Parliament. Its chaos was externally generated.

    Abbott has an impressive, solid team but confusion in domestic policy is negating the positives. This is generating internal chaos upon which the Senate feeds. The voters will not excuse this even if they are worried about a corrupt, union-controlled Labor Party.]

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