Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research produces yet more disastrous personal ratings for Tony Abbott, and turns the knife with a finding that suggests salvation for the Coalition is only as far away as Julie Bishop.

The latest result from Essential Research has both major parties a point down on the primary vote, in both cases from 40% to 39%. This makes room for increases of one point for the Greens and two points to others, both now at 10%, while Palmer United is now at 2%, which I believe to be a new low. Also featured are Essential Research’s regular monthly personal ratings, which offer yet another belting for Tony Abbott, who is down seven points on approval to 32% and up five on disapproval to 55%. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and up one on disapproval to 39%, and has opened up a 36-31 lead on preferred prime minister after trailing 36-34 last time.

There’s also results on how various politicians have performed over the past year, which are predictable in direction but very interesting in degree. Tony Abbott, Joe Hockey and, more excusably, Christine Milne have equally poor net ratings of minus 22%, minus 24% and minus 23% respectively (Milne having an undecided rating quite a bit higher than the other two). The big eye-openers are Clive Palmer at minus 50% and Julie Bishop at plus 28%. Rather less interestingly, Bill Shorten is at minus 5%.

The poll also finds the issues respondents most want addressed over the coming year are improving the health system and reducing unemployment, with less concern for public transport investment, environmental protection, investment in roads and, in last place, free trade agreements. Respondents also deem it to have been a bad year for pretty much everything, most especially “Australian politics in general” at minus 53% (which is still an improvement on minus 62% last year&#148), the only exceptions being large companies and corporations (plus 14%) and “you and your family overall” (plus 3%).

A semi-regular question on same-sex marriage records weaker support than the particularly strong showing in June, at 55% (down five) with 32% opposed (up four).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

682 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 7 of 14
1 … 6 7 8 … 14

  1. Re Adrian @292: under the original proposal, $5 of the $7 copayment goes into some dodgy ‘Medical Slush Fund’, while $2 goes to the Doctor. It looks as though the Doctors’ $2 has got the chop, while the slush fund remains. Also, rebates have been frozen for four years.

  2. lizzie

    Did you hear Mayor Robert Doyle (former vic Liberal opp leader) on ABC radio earlier?

    He basically said that the Vic coalition need to take a long hard look at themselves in a very large mirror. Their campaign against labor and the CFMEU was ridiculous and stupid according to him. He said that Vic has always been a centre left state and the coalition need to understand that

  4. victoria

    Robert Doyle can sometimes make sense! That’s the second remark about Victoria being a centre left State. Maybe that’s why I like living here.

  7. [304
    lizzie

    victoria

    Robert Doyle can sometimes make sense! That’s the second remark about Victoria being a centre left State. Maybe that’s why I like living here.]

    Sometimes known by the Labor right as the Independent Socialist Republic of Victoria…

  8. Maurice Newman may be right after all. Cooling is coming to Melbourne.

    After 106 years operation the La Trobe St weather station no longer provides the official temperature readings for Melbourne. As of yesterday it was replaced by a new station at Olympic Park. The two stations have been running in tandem since Nov 2013 with La Trobe St still providing the official figure. BOM states that “Initial results suggest the new site shows similar rainfall and temperature readings in most weather conditions, although it is cooler in southerly winds and sea breezes.”

    I’m not so sure. I have compared the temperature readings over 12 months from Dec 2013 to Nov 2014. Of the 365 days there were 287 where La Trobe St recorded a higher maximum and only 66 where Olympic Park was higher. The average maximum at La Trobe St was 21.6 degrees whilst at Olympic Park it was 20.8 degrees. Thus the difference is 0.8 degrees. Isn’t that about 40 years of global warming?

    The auspicious occasion of Olympic Park’s first day as the official provider of Melbourne’s temperature was marked by a whopping 2.7 degree difference. Olympic Park’s maximum was 19.0 whilst La Trobe St’s was 21.7.

    Bolt and Newman will be delighted.

  9. The Tories and their cheersquad in the media would have us believe they are geniuses as economic managers.

    We are not so sure. Seems like people are afraid, very afraid.

    Consumer sentiment has fallen to its lowest point in more than three years, according to the latest Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index.
    The bank’s chief economist Bill Evans described the 5.7 per cent fall, from 96.6 in November to 91.1 in December, as “a very disturbing result”.
    “The Index is now at its lowest level since August 2011, when it briefly fell below 90. Prior to that you have to go all the way back to May 2009 to see a period when the index printed consistently below today’s level,” he said.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/consumer-confidence-plunges-to-3year-low-20141210-123y2g.html#ixzz3LRpYBlgl

  10. [We may have to pay high prices for gas to enable new fields to be developed. So here is the lucky country that, having exported our gas at losing prices, must pay through the nose for domestic gas. And if the export price falls far enough we might even have some of our export gas companies go broke.]

    Has anyone seen this:

    http://shalebubble.org/

    They reckon uncoventional fossil fuel extraction in the US is a bubble that’ll pop in the next decade or two. Overestimation of reserves and the increased difficulty and cost of extracting the resource are the major contributers.

    Admittedly shale is only a small portion of the unconventional production in Australia but the same principles apply. Well costs increase over time as production rates fall and more wells need to be drilled to maintain intitial production rates. CSG wells need to be fracked to release the last 30 to 50 % of gas held in them and this further increases costs.

    Its ridiculous that we don’t have limits to maintain a domestic gas supply and even more ridiculous that domestic supply is dependent on something that actually has the potential to fail to meet domestic demand at a reasonable price.

  12. Good to see that the ABC is now referring to the latest proposal to change Medicare arrangements as the Government’s ‘revised GP co-payment plan’.

  14. [ The average maximum at La Trobe St was 21.6 degrees whilst at Olympic Park it was 20.8 degrees. Thus the difference is 0.8 degrees. Isn’t that about 40 years of global warming?]

    The temperature series will be appropriately calibrated for long-term analysis (via the adjustment process that denialists hate so much).

  16. 😀 The headline in the GG about the Credlin + Bishop situation.
    [Like Two Siamese Fighting Fish]
    .
    Sounds about right,

    [Siamese fighting fish

    Males and females flare or puff out their gill covers (opercula) to appear more impressive, either to intimidate other rivals ………….As an invasive species they pose a threat to native fish, frogs and other wildlife in the wetlands
    …………fish are pitted against each other in a fight and bets are placed on which one will win. One fish is almost always killed as a result.]

  21. jules

    [They reckon uncoventional fossil fuel extraction in the US is a bubble that’ll pop in the next decade or two. Overestimation of reserves and the increased difficulty and cost of extracting the resource are the major contributers.]

    There was speculation about 12 months ago in strategic policy circles that the US was exaggerating domestic supplies to put pressure on OPEC.

    Interestingly the Israeli’s announced that they believed that they had promising gas off their coast around the same time as the US started saying they could be self-sufficient.

  22. [ The “unchain my heart” ads ran after the 1998 election, not before. ]

    I can’t confirm that the ads featuring that song were before or after the election without further research, but the Liberals most definitely used significant government funded pro-gst advertising before the 98 election. The first instance to my knowledge of any such expenditure for a program that wasn’t legislated (or indeed presented to the parliament). It was utterly disgraceful.

    Perhaps the ones with the song were only used after the election (but still before the legislation passed the parliament) as there was a change in advertising agency in control. And perhaps it is a false confluence between the ‘Unchain my heart’ ads and all pre-gst ads in people’s minds that has created a mis-memory of the ads only appearing after the election.

    [GST advertising

    In 1998, when the federal government decided to mount a large pre-election GST advertising campaign using taxpayers’ money (as mentioned, before the legislation had been drafted or passed), the Australian Financial Review predicted that it would want to avoid suggestions of ‘jobs for the boys’ and this would therefore ‘rule out’ agencies such as DDB (Fox, 1998:33).]

    https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/bitstream/handle/11343/34907/67682_00004098_01_Young006.pdf?sequence=1

  25. [ Labor back in front in Fisher … ]

    surely there will be a recount before the result is declared if its this close??

    sad that ESJ will disappointed if the ALP actually do win Fisher. 🙂

  26. Unchain My Heart was very late in the piece: by my recollection, about 2-3 months before the GST came into effect in July 2000.

    John Howard only announced his intention to introduce a GST a week or two before he called the election in 1998. While I note the comments in the article you have linked, I don’t recall there being any government-funded advertising at that time. Possibly there was after the election, but I’m struggling to recall any ads at any time other than Unchain My Heart.

    BTW, my recollection was that the Unchain My Heart ads were not prepared by either of the advertising agencies mentioned in that article but by Whybin TBWA (I knew someone who was working there at the time, and I thought he told me he worked on those ads).

    If anyone can recall or find online somewhere any GST ads that were made before Unchain My Heart, I’d be quite interested.

  27. [I am prepared to protect the property rights of Queenslanders]
    says Feeney, who has ordered the removal of climate change effects on sea level in planning scheme.

    “I support your right to build under water.”

    [The LGAQ fears councils could be liable for damage if they are forced to remove references to climate change-derived sea level rises from their planning documents, and developments go ahead in vulnerable areas.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/queensland/climate-change-debate-councils-concerned-about-jeff-seeneys-order-to-remove-sea-level-rise-reference-20141210-123zag.html

  28. We have already had similar planning non-decisions in Western Victoria, where the Planning Minister Guy refused to allow a coastal council to ban building in vulnerable areas.
    “Property rights.”

  29. The comments under the PvO article on the Siamese Fighting Fish are a hoot.

    Some of you may not have picked up yet that PvO is an Abbott-hater, a liar, prone to bitchiness, lacking gravitas, and a general boon to Labor.

  30. [JOURNALIST:

    Prime Minister, why were the tax ads running this morning two hours after you saw the Governor-General?

    PRIME MINISTER:

    Well I am not aware of the arrangements regarding that but obviously when the caretaker arrangements come into operation they will cease. ]

    http://australianpolitics.com/elections/1998/300898.shtml

    MB, like I said the ones using the song may well have been later in the piece, but Howard himself was acknowledging the ads at the press conference to announce the election and that they would only stop when the caretaker period officially came into place.

    I haven’t found copies of them, (haven’t looked too hard), but they were definitely stealing taxpayers money to advertise their re-election policies before the election. If that isn’t corruption I don’t know what is.

  31. Just got a weird call from someone claiming to be from fed gov. Says I am getting a refund check. Did not ask for much other than birthday and address which should be easy enough to hack from a hundred other sources. Gave me a number to ring.

    Anyone know anything about it?

  32. Whoever ran the Kevin Andrews/Peta Credlin one-two line may have been being michievous as well.

    Mr Abbott’s Office reckons there is nothing in it.

    One thing is for sure, the Liberals are leaking and backgrounding like crazy. Lots of them – frontbenchers and backbenchers.

    I imagine that Abbott enjoyed muchly the leaking and the backgrounding Rudd and his spear carriers carried out against Gillard and, therefore, on Abbott’s behalf.

    How easy was that for Abbott?

    And now, poor thing, how hard is it for Abbott?

  33. In one sense politics in Australia is looking up.

    We may have a completre (be polite!) dill for a PM but we also have far more variety in representation from independents and individuals than just two main parties than we have had for a long time. I like it a lot; even if i disagree with them from time to time.

  34. [ Just got a weird call from someone claiming to be from fed gov. Says I am getting a refund check. ]

    Almost certainly a scam. What dept were claiming to be they from and did they give a name? If its legit they would have no problems handing that info out so YOU could find a number to ring yourself to check them out. The fact they gave you a number to call is suspicious.

  37. http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/dec/10/financial-discrepancies-emerge-in-fundraising-body-link-to-tony-abbott

    [A political fundraising body linked to Tony Abbott was found to have financial discrepancies in the lead-up to the 2013 federal election and may have failed to declare gifts in kind, a critical report by the Australian Electoral Commission has found.

    The Warringah Club – now known as the Sydney Small Business Club – is an associated entity linked to the Liberal party and the prime minister’s political fundraising. It has received thousands of dollars from the New South Wales Liberal party, as well as sent thousands to the party.

    But the AEC raised concerns about the accounting practices of the entity in a compliance audit in February 2013 for the entity’s accounts year ending 2011, documents obtained by Guardian Australia under freedom of information laws show.]

  39. Sigh. The Great Western Woodlands is said to be home to 20% of all Australian plant species and 25% of all eucalypt species.

    [A proposal to turn up to 500,000 hectares of Australia’s largest woodland into farmland would release up to 40m tonnes of stored carbon dioxide and contradict the federal government’s Direct Action policy, green groups say.

    The Great Western Woodlands spans 160m hectares in south-eastern Western Australia, ranging from the wheatbelt west of Kalgoorlie to Esperance and stretching toward the Nullarbor.

    It is the largest remaining area of temperate woodland in the world, but just 12% is protected in conservation reserves.

    About 60% of the woodland is made up of unallocated crown land. Emails from shire chief executive Matthew Scott, obtained under freedom of information by the Wilderness Society, identified 500,000 hectares of that land that might be suitable for farming.
    (A map released under Freedom of Information laws from the shire of Esperance, identifying up to five 100,000 hectare pockets of unallocated crown land that it says the government should consider converting into farmland. )

    Wilderness Society WA campaigner Peter Robertson said the environmental cost would be much greater than any economic benefit and might result in 40m tonnes of carbon being released into the atmosphere.

    “It would undermine any effort that Direct Action has in terms of net greenhouse gas deficit,” he said.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/dec/10/farming-australias-largest-woodland-release-40m-tonnes-carbon

  40. CTar1

    It does seem like there is a business war of sorts between various energy producers around the world. i think the way Russia is portrayed now – cold war 2 – is part of that conflict. You could see Russia as an energy concern as much as an actual nation state.

    [Interestingly the Israeli’s announced that they believed that they had promising gas off their coast around the same time as the US started saying they could be self-sufficient.]

    Off whose coast?

    Lebanon isn’t happy about Israeli claims and since ’48 all Palestinian/Arab coastline in the area has been annexed by Israel except the Gaza strip. But its a similar thing. Israel needs some sort of ongoing energy independence itself imo, if it wants to keep itself alive.

  41. [ ‘The New Tax System’ campaign was the largest in Australian history running for several years. Of a
    total of over $100 million, $30 million was spent shortly before the 1998 election campaign. ]
    https://www.adelaide.edu.au/anzca2006/conf_proceedings/van_onselen_errington_ircampaign.pdf

    $30 million. In 98 dollars. Just think on that. In the last election the total election campaign advertising from the Coalition and Labor in the major capitals was less than $11 million.

    https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/798371-election-advertising-summary-sept-6th-final.html

  42. [183
    JimmyDoyle

    Bugler – Yeah agreed, although I think Shorten’s stolidness is actually a great asset after the instability of Rudd/Gillard and now Abbott.

    Gecko – yeah Combet was great.]

    I think the voters have had enough of show ponies and excitement. The times might suit the likes of Shorten.

    Combet and Smith are great losses to Labor, and the nation’s political culture, as will be Falkner when he retires next election.

  43. [..Back in Australia we must appear to outsiders to be about the stupidest nation on earth. We have exported most of our gas at prices that were linked to the oil price, which means that we will lose money on the exports because of the bloated cost of our huge LNG plants and the high cost of extracting coal gas.]

    Except most of it is being sold by foreign multinationals not ‘us’ at all. We give it away for income tax and PRRT returns which will obviously diminish if / as margins contract. Least Labor and Libs in WA are strong behind our domgas reservation policy – no idea why you guys don’t have that in the east.

  44. [A proposal to turn up to 500,000 hectares of Australia’s largest woodland into farmland would release up to 40m tonnes of stored carbon dioxide and contradict the federal government’s Direct Action policy, green groups say.]

    Just as well there’s an Australian Greens Party Government to stop this sort of environmental vandalism.

  45. [236
    Boerwar

    Your point about distributed renewables being the answer is spot on. Renewables are not only an environmental must-have. They are an economic must-have, and a defence must-have as well.]

    I wish more people understood this. 🙁

  46. Lizzie

    Those of in the west familiar with the great western woodlands are pleased to see this issue getting some national coverage.

    It is truly wonderful country, unspoiled in parts and you only need drive a day from Perth to get there.

    But I doubt a Tory ever saw land he didn’t think could be cleared for cropping or grazing. You only have to fly over the WA wheatbelt to see the salt degradation that has resulted from that policy

  47. Hi

    Yes it has my scam alarms ringing big time.

    However getting more sophisticated:
    1. Gave me a reference number
    2. Mentioned a supervisor’s name
    3. Gave me a number to call
    4. Had a vaguely plausible story
    5. Did not ask for any money or banking details
    6. Only asked for my birthdate

    I am NOT inclined to ring the number on the assumption that by ringing it you will trigger some scam or other.

  48. dtt

    yes, got one over a year ago. I asked which Department they were from – “The Department for Refunds”.

    I said I knew there was no such thing and asked to speak to a supervisor.

    Clunk.

  49. rossmcg

    [But I doubt a Tory ever saw land he didn’t think could be cleared for cropping or grazing. ]

    Agreed. Right down to real estate agents – always development potential.

    It would be nice if Labor showed a little spirit on this.

  50. [12:30pm
    Doctor Steven Chu, Nobel Laureate and Former US Secretary of Energy presents the National Press Club Address: The Global Energy and Climate Challenge]

Comments Page 7 of 14
1 … 6 7 8 … 14

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *