Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research produces yet more disastrous personal ratings for Tony Abbott, and turns the knife with a finding that suggests salvation for the Coalition is only as far away as Julie Bishop.

The latest result from Essential Research has both major parties a point down on the primary vote, in both cases from 40% to 39%. This makes room for increases of one point for the Greens and two points to others, both now at 10%, while Palmer United is now at 2%, which I believe to be a new low. Also featured are Essential Research’s regular monthly personal ratings, which offer yet another belting for Tony Abbott, who is down seven points on approval to 32% and up five on disapproval to 55%. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and up one on disapproval to 39%, and has opened up a 36-31 lead on preferred prime minister after trailing 36-34 last time.

There’s also results on how various politicians have performed over the past year, which are predictable in direction but very interesting in degree. Tony Abbott, Joe Hockey and, more excusably, Christine Milne have equally poor net ratings of minus 22%, minus 24% and minus 23% respectively (Milne having an undecided rating quite a bit higher than the other two). The big eye-openers are Clive Palmer at minus 50% and Julie Bishop at plus 28%. Rather less interestingly, Bill Shorten is at minus 5%.

The poll also finds the issues respondents most want addressed over the coming year are improving the health system and reducing unemployment, with less concern for public transport investment, environmental protection, investment in roads and, in last place, free trade agreements. Respondents also deem it to have been a bad year for pretty much everything, most especially “Australian politics in general” at minus 53% (which is still an improvement on minus 62% last year&#148), the only exceptions being large companies and corporations (plus 14%) and “you and your family overall” (plus 3%).

A semi-regular question on same-sex marriage records weaker support than the particularly strong showing in June, at 55% (down five) with 32% opposed (up four).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

682 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. This piece in the guardian is on the money

    [Tony Abbott’s attempt to “reset” his terrible political situation has had a forlorn quality. His government has been trailing in the polls almost since its election, and his own personal standing has been consistently worse than his party’s.

    His first budget has been stoking public anger for seven long months. His own ministers appear to be briefing against him, and MPs are grumbling about the control-freakery of his office. In the face of all this, the best his brains trust could do was pushing him out in front of the media to promise that he really could change, if only we would give him another chance. This followed a speech to his party room where he promised to scrape some barnacles from the government’s hull (an operation which may soon require a bathysphere).]

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/dec/10/tony-abbotts-reset-can-never-work-because-he-cant-reset-himself?view=mobile

  8. Steve
    [ Maybe Scott Morrison will be Australia’s first fascist leader.]
    I think he might be the second one. Our current PM already demonises racial minorities, is nationalistic, wants to build defence spending, cut welfare sepnding, panders to corporate interests, and tramples over individual rights. Now we have state funded propaganda as he tries to advertise a poicy that has not passed parliament. How many more boxes does he have to tick?

  9. Victoria, re that Guardian article, is it Tony Abbott’s budget, or Joe’s? I seem to recall Wayne Swan taking the responsibility for that little exercise.

  11. Steve 777
    [Funny that Malcolm Fraser was considered a radical right winger in his day. For the 1970s he was, although today his erstwhile colleugues consider him a bleeding heart left winger, even though, as far as I know, he hasn’t changed his views or values.]

    Malcolm Fraser can get stuffed.

    He set this “them and us” ball in motion, and now tries to take kudos for being anti-racism. Yet it was because Labor agreed to take in the refugees, caused by Fraser himself as Defence Minister, that he was successful.

    Fraser will never redeem himself.

    He should have stayed in his fuckwit party and tried to change it from within, instead of bailing out and wanting the “left” to protect him.

    What an arse!

  12. I think its good for all political leaders to have a very large dose of humility in their make-up Socrates.And love for all too!We can lose sight of our impact on others.

  14. kezza2 @ 604: People who disliked Ms Gillard believed that she had lied to them, and were angry about it. But I think the anger directed at Mr Abbott in some ways is even deeper, because people see him not just as a liar, but as a hypocrite.

    There seems to be an assumption on the part of the media that politicians lie, so we should get over it. People may even accept that, but still despise hypocrisy. Making a big thing about your honesty and then lying through your teeth has a similar quality of hypocrisy to preaching to your congregation about morality while molesting them on the sly.

  15. nappin

    Abbott and Hockey are joined at the hip as far as responsbility for the budget is concerned. And Abbott is in charge of removing the so called barnacles

  18. [But I think the anger directed at Mr Abbott in some ways is even deeper, because people see him not just as a liar, but as a hypocrite.]

    Could it be even simpler than that? People weren’t happy with the Rudd shenanigans and so voted Labor out. We got Abbott as a result of that, now people aren’t happy with Abbott and so are mobilising to ditch his govt as well.

  19. pedant@613

    kezza2 @ 604: People who disliked Ms Gillard believed that she had lied to them, and were angry about it. But I think the anger directed at Mr Abbott in some ways is even deeper, because people see him not just as a liar, but as a hypocrite.

    There seems to be an assumption on the part of the media that politicians lie, so we should get over it. People may even accept that, but still despise hypocrisy. Making a big thing about your honesty and then lying through your teeth has a similar quality of hypocrisy to preaching to your congregation about morality while molesting them on the sly.

    I don’t believe that properly describes the situation with Ms Gillard.

    The outrage about the ‘lie’ was largely confected but was readily seized upon by people who just didn’t like her and had difficulty justifying why.

  20. Wouldnt it be wonderful if the Prime Minister and Opposition Leader actually worked together and talked nappin. There both Catholic perhaps they could pray together for Jesus and the Holy Spirit to guide them?

  22. Speaking of barnacles, I cant help but think of the savagery known as keelhauling, which I wouldnt wish on my worst enemies.

    But I think I’d make an exception for some ministers within of the Abbott govt.

    They behave like pirates and should be treated as such.

  23. bemused
    [The outrage about the ‘lie’ was largely confected but was readily seized upon by people who just didn’t like her and had difficulty justifying why.]

    Yeah, you’ve never explained that.

  26. kezza2 @ 616: Mr Abbott’s lies have a rare “quality” about them: he denies things which everyone can seek with their own eyes. By doing so, he is telling the voters that he thinks they are stupid. That is a dumb move.

    We are now, I think, at the point where journalists left right and centre are competing for the role played by the little boy in The Emperor’s New Clothes.

    I still think Mr Abbott conceives his role as PM as akin to that of the headmaster of a boarding school. We, the voters, aren’t his bosses, but teenagers who need to have some discipline knocked into us. If he keeps that up, he will be out on his backside in 2016, if not before.

  27. In the AFR yesterday

    [Australia’s burgeoning solar energy market is about to be turned on its head as the ­country’s largest energy retailer starts offering a pay-as-you-go package for households and small business.

    Origin Energy’s planned launch in the new year of solar PV systems with no initial capital charges has the potential to transform Australian energy consumption.

    It will put further pressure on distribution and transmission companies to charge for access to the grid. Also, it will force other major energy retailers to match Origin’s product offering.]

    http://www.afr.com/p/business/chanticleer/sun_shines_on_solar_market_eDE9FBkWYuA6l2QxcFifLP

  28. bemused @ 618: I didn’t want to start a new episode in the Gillard history wars. But I think it’s incontrovertible that plenty of people who disliked Ms Gillard believed she had lied to them. Whether the dislike prompted the belief or vice versa is, indeed, a fair question.

  32. re ESJ post 619 a disguised sense of humour
    _____________________
    However at Menzies House is writing as ESJ tonight is rather funny tonight ,urging Christian/Catholic politicians to pray together…and that from one supposedly Jewish
    what a hoot !

  36. The $200 million that Abbott/Bishop are pledging to the international climate fund is interesting.

    It seems:

    1. Australia wants to control how the money is spent, contrary to the rules of the fund.

    2. This money will come out of the foreign aid budget.

    Therefore there is no real Australian money to the climate fund and other countries would be pretty naive to believe what JBishop tells them.

    Apparently this is money that was going to South Pacific nations anyway. Perhaps Abbott wil use it to build elevated toll roads in Samoa or Tonga (when their lands become flooded due to rising sea levels Abbott could claim credit for letting the locals keep driving).

  37. Victoria @ 628: I wonder if anyone followed up my suggestion here a good few months ago that some enterprising journalist should try to find out what brands of cigars Mr Hockey and Senator Cormann smoke, and how much they cost?

    I was at a 5 star hotel in Jakarta a few years ago which had a special room for the storage of cigars, and was gobsmacked by the prices. It’s one thing to be caught smoking a cigar, but something else to be caught smoking a $100 cigar.

  38. pedant@627

    bemused @ 618: I didn’t want to start a new episode in the Gillard history wars. But I think it’s incontrovertible that plenty of people who disliked Ms Gillard believed she had lied to them. Whether the dislike prompted the belief or vice versa is, indeed, a fair question.

    Well I never thought she lied.

    The dislike was there ahead of the ‘lie’ accusation and hysteria. That accusation was just a handy peg on which to hang the difficult to explain dislike.

  43. That photo of the bloated Hockey and Cormann sharing a cigar moment reminded me so much of a picture the pigs in Animal Farm.

    There must have been a caricature to that effect in the earlier editions of Orwell’s book, because I can still see it in my minds eye.

    It is at the point that Boxer is being driven to the knackery….

  44. bemused

    [The dislike was there ahead of the ‘lie’ accusation and hysteria. That accusation was just a handy peg on which to hang the difficult to explain dislike.]

    Didn’t think you could justify your position.

  45. Fulvio:

    Hockey followed up the cigar smoking imagery with the declaration only days later that ‘the poor’ don’t drive, or if they do don’t drive very far (or wtte).

    Talk about a walking clanger.

  48. A weird little thing just happened.

    I was watching the abc – those agony aunt and uncle shows. This one was about death, well funerals during the bits I saw, but I presume it was about death. Tight at the end they had a montage, a whole bunch of soundbites about something, i missed what, but I presume last words, or your first words after you died, if you could form them (if there even was/is a you at that point.)

    There was the briefest flash of Stella Young saying (in what sounded like great humour):

    “Oh my god, is that it?”

    I like those coincidences.

  50. kezza2@643

    bemused

    The dislike was there ahead of the ‘lie’ accusation and hysteria. That accusation was just a handy peg on which to hang the difficult to explain dislike.


    Didn’t think you could justify your position.

    Nice try kezza, but I never believed she lied.

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