The latest result from Essential Research has both major parties a point down on the primary vote, in both cases from 40% to 39%. This makes room for increases of one point for the Greens and two points to others, both now at 10%, while Palmer United is now at 2%, which I believe to be a new low. Also featured are Essential Research’s regular monthly personal ratings, which offer yet another belting for Tony Abbott, who is down seven points on approval to 32% and up five on disapproval to 55%. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and up one on disapproval to 39%, and has opened up a 36-31 lead on preferred prime minister after trailing 36-34 last time.
There’s also results on how various politicians have performed over the past year, which are predictable in direction but very interesting in degree. Tony Abbott, Joe Hockey and, more excusably, Christine Milne have equally poor net ratings of minus 22%, minus 24% and minus 23% respectively (Milne having an undecided rating quite a bit higher than the other two). The big eye-openers are Clive Palmer at minus 50% and Julie Bishop at plus 28%. Rather less interestingly, Bill Shorten is at minus 5%.
The poll also finds the issues respondents most want addressed over the coming year are improving the health system and reducing unemployment, with less concern for public transport investment, environmental protection, investment in roads and, in last place, free trade agreements. Respondents also deem it to have been a bad year for pretty much everything, most especially “Australian politics in general” at minus 53% (which is still an improvement on minus 62% last year”), the only exceptions being large companies and corporations (plus 14%) and “you and your family overall” (plus 3%).
A semi-regular question on same-sex marriage records weaker support than the particularly strong showing in June, at 55% (down five) with 32% opposed (up four).
Thanks KB
Hi kezza
Trust all is well?
CTar1
Dept of PM&C = Department of Peta’s Ministerial Control ?
Nicholas
[I think that Bill Evans, chief neoclassical economist at Westpac, does not sufficiently credit the following economic conditions]
Yep. It’s a bit this just undeserved ‘public hysteria’ – nothing to see.
All is fine …
Surely Chrissy pyne is taking the piss
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/christopher-pyne-begs-pm-tony-abbott-save-abc-tv-in-adelaide-20141210-124hro.html
There was a lot of malice directed towards Gillard because she was a woman. In Abbott’s case it has little to do with prejudice that he is so angrily held in low esteem by so many. It’s all his own doing.
[Labor prepares to fight as inner city swings green
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/labor-prepares-to-fight-as-inner-city-swings-green-20141210-1244p8.html
There is a recount being conducted so there is yet a slender hope that both of Labors enemies will be vanquished, Libs and Greens.]
There would be many in Labor who’d be happier if the recount re-elected Newton-Brown rather than the Greens. They are closer politically/economically to the LNP (especially a genuine moderate such as Newton-Brown) and know that a Greens local member is likely to build their vote for next election, and lead Richmond, Brunswick and Northcote over the line next time.
Will the upper house be declared on Friday? any news on how it’s shaping up? does labor still need greens, sex party and one country conservative? Looking at it, the Purcell bloke from vote 1 local jobs is possibly their best bet – my guess is Warrnambool TAFE is going to look pretty fancy in four years time. he’s very pro windfarms, renewables and the RET, and I think labor will be able to deal with him. None of the others (DLP, Shooters, Country Alliance) are likely to deal. If the nats were smart they’d head to the cross benches and be king maker. It may be the only way of stopping a rash of country independents in 2018.
Bemused,
It’s pretty cowardly of Robert Doyle to attack the ‘looney right’ in the liberal party just after an election defeat. Why the hell would anyone vote for a centre left liberal party? Leave that to the ALP. He did lead the liberals to one of the worst defeats in victorian history. Presumably he has plenty of time for the looney left but they don’t exist do they?
victoria
[
Surely Chrissy pyne is taking the piss]
He has the hide of a rhinoceros so it is very possible. Hopefully recent polling has made him all aquiver.
That photo of Steve Smith standing on the 408 sign and raising his bat to salute the heavens is pretty special.
Funnily enough, as an inner-Melbourne Greens supporter I’d actually love for the ALP to speak to the kind of issues I care about. But I entirely understand why they don’t, and even why they shouldn’t.
The problem is that of course then the ALP ends up fighting a war on two fronts, inevitably looking a bully against the plucky Greens, and wasting money playing defence when they’re better off targeting the swinging marginals. Pretty much exactly what they did this time around. Pragmatic politics.
victoria
Oops didn’t come out right. His rhino hide is what makes it very possible he is dead serious and done it with a straight face.
[555
BK
There was a lot of malice directed towards Gillard because she was a woman. In Abbott’s case it has little to do with prejudice that he is so angrily held in low esteem by so many. It’s all his own doing.]
Yes unlike Gillard, he thoroughly deserves the contempt going his way.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-talks-tough-on-climate-in-lima-20141210-124fy8.html
I’d rather give myself a mexican necktie than work with the sex party, regardless of their support!
poroti
I would say Chrissy is definitely getting edgy about his seat being safe
[556
Sustainable future
There would be many in Labor ….are closer politically/economically to the LNP]
Yet another repetition of Green nonsense. Labor and the Tories have spent the past 125 years fighting each other.
The simple reality is the Labor has to compete with the foe that stands before it – the LNP – as well the one that lurks behind it – the Greens.
The Greens fabricate this absurdity because it helps to recruit and shore up supporters that might otherwise defect to Labor.
[In Abbott’s case it has little to do with prejudice that he is so angrily held in low esteem by so many. It’s all his own doing.]
Which, after the way he carried on as LOTO makes it all the more satisfying to see.
Hiya vic
For the first time in years have both boys (and pardners) home for Christmas.
We’ve all changed.
Interesting times, politically speaking.
BW would find their voting habits beyond the pale, but not informal.
Victoria @562 – yes, but who is listening? The G20 showed an Australian PM can talk whilst other leaders ponder the piece of paper in front of them or wish they’d been allowed to use a tablet or smartphone to drown out the sound.
[Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 4h 4 hours ago
Hilariously over the top! RT @David_Speers: Greg Hunt: Abbott-Bishop partnerships one of the best in post-war period. #pmagenda @SkyNewsAust]
Hunt’s a fool, and a discredited one at that.
[Scared eyes. That’s the first thing I noticed when Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton fronted a presser yesterday to announce an end to the old GP co-payment policy with a shiny new one in its place. It was plaintive stuff. “Please be kind”. Or rather, “Please don’t be too unkind.”
Five days ago, a host of senior ministers including the Treasurer, Joe Hockey and Foreign Minister, Julie Bishop maintained the seven dollar co-payment remained the policy of the government.]
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/no_cures_in_co_payment_shift
Dio 558
Thanks for the tip. I just saw the photo and you are right. Rain aside, it has been a very fine quality test so far. A fitting tribute to Phil Hughes. India has played their part too.
I vaguely recall seeing a comment in the press somewhere that a particular recommendation from Mr Abbott’s Commission of Audit had been rejected or ruled out, or words to that effect.
Maybe I missed it, but I thought there hadn’t been any formal government response to the C of A report. If not, there’s a great opportunity for the ALP there. At some point closer to the election, they should start going through the recommendations one by one at question time, asking the government to rule out their adoption.
The project to brand Mr Abbott as a pathological liar has gone pretty well to date, basically because people can see it’s true; so every answer to every such question will be a potential news story. If they don’t do rule things out, or try to use weasel words, bingo! If they rule things out, their right wing looney friends will be upset, and the ALP can reasonably point out that Mr Abbott’s denials aren’t worth a pinch of ….
I have a question.
Suppose the Liberals adopted a new leader on a fairly rational strategy of choosing someone (male obviously) who hasn’t been high profile but at the same time hasn’t any scandal, stuff or other baggage. A fresh face that they and their mates in the media can spin a new narrative around.
Who would they choose? Obviously none of their current Ministry who when I last looked all had serious baggage or like Bob Baldwin is a seat warmer.
Who?
“Peace is our Profession ”
_________________This slogan…once the slogan of the US Bomber Command charged with carrying nucleur weapons…might have been dreamed up by Dr Strangelove or George Orwell in 1984,,,but it was really a slogan in the US defence forces……
amazing
Yes I know Baldwin is a Parl Sec. I’m referring to the “our Team” page.
Kezza2
Good to hear. Enjoy the break with them. 🙂
Yep interesting times indeed
I didn’t have a chance to comment this morning. Regarding the doctor’s tax (which it certainly is). I have found the brazen dishonesty of Abbott and Dutton in announcing their “new” policy stunning. Who do they think they are fooling? It is pure semantics. (Like theologians arguing morality?). That they would even make the attempt to kid people like this with a straight face says to me that they really are pathological liars.
Victoria @ 572: “I’m just a soul whose intentions are good, oh Lord, please don’t let me be misunderstood” sounds good from Nina Simone, but just pathetic from a PM.
Incidentally, I’ve been struck lately by the fact that some of the papers seem to be using especially unflattering pictures of Mr Abbott. There’s one cropping up regularly on Fairfax which makes him look manic, like The Joker from the Batman movie. Things like this can shape public perceptions: even people who were around in 1972 tend to remember Billy McMahon for his ears.
Let’s put it this way:
Noone I know believes a thing Abbott says.
No One.
Not Any.
You know you’ve been shirtfronted by your own idiocy when you’re known world-wide as a fucking liar.
What an embarrassment.
It was so good to know that Morwell came within a cat’s whisker of being delivered into Labor hands.
Pity about Narracan.
[ unless it’s assumed that the Liberals were ignoring evidence about what they needed to do. ]
Hmmmmmm….and what is NOT safe about that assumption??
[Maybe I missed it, but I thought there hadn’t been any formal government response to the C of A report.]
I have no such recollection either, but I’m sure Hockey/Cormann would’ve provided some kind of response to it.
Where’s the love comrades?
victoria
Good to see you are travelling well. And have wisdom to guide your kids.
Take care, you and yours.
The Curious Snail seems to have gone offline. That can only be a good thing. Perhaps Mr Seeney wanted something changed.
Abetz is doing his very best to provide the last nails for the coffin.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-10/public-servants-begin-industrial-action-government-pay-offer/5958830
Malcolm Fraser savages Scott Morrison: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-fraser-savages-scott-morrisons-new-asylum-seeker-laws-and-senators-who-passed-them-20141210-124bp1.html
Sustainable future@557
What a load of rubbish.
I want Labor elected and neither of its enemies.
If Labor doesn’t win then I would prefer an impotent and useless Green to a more threatening Lib.
kezza2 @ 581: Maybe that says something about the circles in which you, and for that matter most contributors here, may move. For myself, I’m politically interested without being at all politically active, and I’m picking up the same thing among my acquaintances. There’s an anger there that is palpable, and it’s getting to the point where people feel silly if they try to defend Mr Abbott. That’s an important tipping point in public opinion, a bit like the stage at which John Howard went from being seen as cool (by schoolkids) to being seen as a bit of an old duffer.
Between Julie and Peta, Mod Lib.
ESJ
I could ask the same question of Tony Abbott with regard to he poor, the unemployed, pensioners, the disabled, nurses, soldiers, teachers… Most people who aren’t mining millionaires.
When Abbott is asked “who is thy neighbour?” I must assume he thinks of anyone else who lives in Sydney with a view of the harbour.
[ Who would they choose? Obviously none of their current Ministry who when I last looked all had serious baggage or like Bob Baldwin is a seat warmer.
Who? ]
Wyatt Roy. 🙂
[ Where’s the love comrades? ]
I have none for you. You are a creep. 🙁
Desert Fox@558
The Libs have the polar opposite LOONS to the Greens.
BTW, I have not believe this moderate Lib stuff for a long time. More a case of two factions, extreme right and fascist.
confessions @ 583: They probably thanked the authors publicly for their work, but what I had in mind was a point by point response, of the type routinely given (eventually) to parliamentary committee reports. That’s what I haven’t seen.
Here’s a site to keep you company:
http://theunaustralian.net/
poroti
[He has the hide of a rhinoceros so it is very possible]
The miniature version.
[ and it’s getting to the point where people feel silly if they try to defend Mr Abbott. ]
Yup, i dont discuss Abbott with people i know who vote Lib. It makes them squirm and be obviously uncomfortable and i consider it cruel.
Still struggling with J Bishop being some sort of fashion icon, only in Lib land does that happen.
Funny that Malcolm Fraser was considered a radical right winger in his day. For the 1970s he was, although today his erstwhile colleugues consider him a bleeding heart left winger, even though, as far as I know, he hasn’t changed his views or values.
There have only been two more Liberal PMs since Fraser, each further right than the last. I shudder to think what the next Liberal PM might be like. Maybe Scott Morrison will be Australia’s first fascist leader.