Fairfax-Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor

The second poll from Ipsos gives the Coalition relatively respectable readings on voting intention, although Tony Abbott gets another hammering on his personal ratings.

The second federal poll conducted for the Fairfax papers by Ipsos is somewhat less bad than what they’ve been accustomed to recently, while still giving Labor a lead of 52-48 according to preference flows from the 2013 election (up from 51-49 in last month’s poll) and 53-47 on respondent-allocation (steady). The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down two), 37% for Labor (steady), 12% for the Greens (steady) and 2% for Palmer United (down one). Ipsos was also about two points below trend on the Coalition primary vote last time, and landed a little high for them in its last poll before the Victorian election.

However, the poll corroborates other recent polling in having Tony Abbott’s personal ratings slumping, with approval down four to 38% and disapproval up eight to 57%. Bill Shorten is up three on approval to 46% and one on disapproval to 41%, and he now leads 47-39 as preferred prime minister after a 41-all result last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

914 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. [ >Rowan Dean spits the dummy over the opinion polls

    >>The serfs are revolting!

    Rowan Dean is always revolting.]

    Therefore Rowan Dean is a serf?

    🙂

  2. Am I seeing more lies from Tone, if he is now claiming that the media didn’t ask about his plans then that is B.S, the whole case against him at the last election was that in order to achieve his budget surplus and keep his spending plans then he would need to make about $70 billion dollars worth of cuts, he and his team and supporters swore black and blue that it was a big scare and that there were no alternative plans.

    On the Kochie interview, I can forgive someone occasionally getting a person’s name wrong but if that person is very well known not just for Sunrise but for his work in the finance media and with the Port Adelaide FC then getting the name wrong twice after being corrected the first time is just rude and unprofessional.

  3. Just read the Rowan Dean item.

    Comments are about on par – in terms of being one-eyed – as many are capable of here on PB.

    If the results from the punters don’t suit your view of life, it is because said punters are either ignorant and/or stupid.

    To coin a phrase for Dean “My political one-eye – right or wrong”.

    Does anyone actually read his stuff and pay for it?

  4. The Guardian is reporting that Alan Jones gave Greg Hunt a dressing down for putting the PM’s seat at risk.

    Please if the Liberal Party is so unable to hold Warringah then the Liberal candidate can only be viewed as a dud.

  5. kakuru Posted Monday, December 8, 2014 at 1:18 pm @ 253

    Coorey made an excellent point on Insiders. This policy is alienating the same aspirational voters that PM Howard wooed so effectively.

    The only reason the Universities are in favour of Pyne’s policy is that it allows them to increase their revenues on the back of fee-paying students. So the interests of the universities diverge from those of students (and their families) who resent being used as walking ATMs.

    Actually I think it’s only the VCs from the gang of eight who are in favour of fee deregulation. Ross Gittins had a couple for great columns on the subject the other week:
    University status comes at a high price
    Students pay for status under uni fee rise

  6. B.C

    Pretty much only the G8, I know Swinburne were lukewarm to the purposed changes.

    Generally I think we need a detailed review of the role and purpose of universities before we start making any changes to the fee structure. I would even go as far as having a royal commission and encourage all stakeholders to submit input into the purpose, role and function of Universities and how to enable them to do their research and how to best educate students.

  7. [The Guardian is reporting that Alan Jones gave Greg Hunt a dressing down for putting the PM’s seat at risk.]

    If we don’t deal with the climate, maybe it will get flooded or hit by bad storms?

  8. [Does anyone actually read his stuff and pay for it?]

    Nope!

    My daughter was alerted to the article then in turn alerted me, otherwise I would have been blissfully unaware.

  9. Seeing as we’re talking about the quality of interviews, last year Peter Clarke analysed several interviews for NoFibs. It would be wonderful if he had kept it up.

    Anatomy of Sales -v- Gillard interview – Leigh Sales interviews then Prime Minister Julia Gillard

    Morrison’s brick wall on how he’ll stop the boats – Sabra Lane interviews then shadow Immigration Minister Scott Morrison

    How Sales dropped the ball on Abbott – Leigh Sales interviews then Opposition Leader Tony Abbott

    Brandis free speech fudge – Emma Albericie’s interview of George Brandis

  10. [ Actually I think it’s only the VCs from the gang of eight who are in favour of fee deregulation. ]

    The rest are going along with it under threat of retaliation from the Govt in the form of worse funding cuts.

  11. BC

    [Actually I think it’s only the VCs from the gang of eight who are in favour of fee deregulation. Ross Gittins had a couple for great columns on the subject the other week:]

    Agreed. Unfortunately, the VCs are the representatives of the universities. The VCs also tend to be despised by the rank-and-file academia within the universities.

    Here’s an old joke, but still has relevance:

    Q: Why doesn’t the Vice Chancellor look out his window in the morning?

    A: To give himself something to do in the afternoon.

  12. Coorey’s piece in the AFR

    [Prime Minister Tony Abbott was not planning to send any ministers to the United Nations climate summit in Peru this week until Foreign Minister Julie Bishop put in a request to attend which was initially refused, she has revealed.

    Ms Bishop told The Australian Financial Review she was given no explanation by the Prime Minister’s Office for the first refusal. Her second request was approved with the condition that Trade Minister Andrew Robb also attend, reportedly as a chaperone.

    “I requested and it was refused so I requested again,” Ms Bishop said in an interview before leaving for Lima on Monday. Australia needed to be represented at a ministerial level at the summit to show the country was taking the negotiations seriously, she said, and to protect Australia’s interests.]

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/how_bishop_pushed_pm_on_climate_uEeIbnKQEUloVkwuc2GPiL

  13. Honestly this mob has no bloody shame

    [The Federal Government has rolled out an advertising campaign spruiking its proposed changes to universities just days after the Senate defeated its plan to deregulate the sector.

    The television and radio advertisements are set to an upbeat tune and tell the audience “Uni graduates can earn 75 per cent more than school leavers and have more career opportunities” and “That’s why the Australian Government will continue to pay around half your undergraduate degree and HECS covers the rest”.

    “So you pay zero course fees up front,” the ads say.]

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/a/25713794/higher-education-reforms-federal-government-rolls-out-advertising-campaign-spruiking-university-deregulation-proposals/

  14. Victoria

    The ALP should respond with yes they might earn 75% more but the increased debt will mean less spending in your small business

  15. Victoria @ 317

    If Bishop is releasing statements publically like that, it sounds like it really is game on in Coalition HQ. Unbelievable.

    I suppose they have learnt some lessons of Gillard’s overthrow of Rudd, better to make the case beforehand and prime the public.

  16. Victoria

    The ALP should respond with yes they might earn 75% more but the increased debt will mean less spending in your small business

    The Liberals just love stealing from small business

  17. victoria

    [Abbott and Co should take the uni changes to the next election. Let the voters decide.]

    Xenophon made the same point. I hope he sticks to it.

  18. The conservative media are increasingly fed up. Jones attacking Hunt the day after Bolt told Pyne he was lying about Bishop getting Robb as a minder for Lima.

  19. @preciouspress
    “@GCobber99: Alan Jones – Greg Hunt | 2GB Alan Jones is going ballistic po.st/dyewXq via @Po_st” @randlight
    2:41pm – 8 Dec 14

    Is this true? my followers say Alan Jones reckons Tony Abbott could lose his seat..

    Sent me this link with AJ going ballistic at Hunt.

    Sorry I can’t listen as the sound of the Parrot’s voice makes me feel ill 😀

  20. B.C.@319

    Why are Coorey’s articles normally free on the AFR website but Tingle’s aren’t? Who gets to decide this, Coorey?

    Presumably because people are willing to pay to read Tingle, but not to read Coorey.

  21. Considering this government has stopped the boats, got rid of the carbon and mining taxes and implemented most of the IPA’s wish list I’m not sure why the Conservative media would be unhappy, unless its dawning on them that the voters don’t share their warped world view and are turning on them or are they afraid that the government might start to clamp down on some of the tax goodies they have been enjoying.

    Well I have some bad news for them, this government is too close to the next election to change that much and save itself, I haven called the next poll just yet but I am getting too the point of thinking this government is close to terminal, it better get the next budget right and start to deliver some real policies rather than the hack jobs they haev been coming up with recently.

  22. Mari

    [Is this true? my followers say Alan Jones reckons Tony Abbott could lose his seat..]

    Bullshit. Ivan Milat could win the seat of Warringah, as long as he ran as a Liberal.

    As victoria says, this is just the Tory media telling their team to get their shit together.

  23. BW 170 I hearby do solemnly declare that I am an Abbott supporter.

    Just came out of boring work meetings and read this – made up for all the crap in the meetings!

    And I am starting to feel the same – leave Tony alone, he may yet lead Labor to victory.

  24. Jones went apeshit calling Hunt a liar a few times and Hunt fawned over Jones as you do when someone call you a liar.

    All over a few Commonwealth Huts at Middle Head which have some of Sydney’s best views (there are so many).

    The huts look lie they are mad of fibro??

  25. This from Laura Tingle a couple of days ago, re the David Murray report

    [The most politically potent observation of the Murray inquiry – but one which reflects all the various aspects of its recommendations – may be buried in an appendix.

    “Housing”, the inquiry’s final report notes, “is a potential source of systemic risk for the financial system and the economy.”

    The Murray inquiry has delivered a refreshingly intellectual contribution to the discussion about where Australia’s financial system – and indeed economy – is up to in 2014. It has not been an inquiry constrained by its terms of reference. Equally, it is such a relief to see recommendations framed as being in the national interest rather than simply trade-offs between competing groups.

    David Murray and his colleagues on the inquiry have thought outside the square on the big issues of the stability of our financial system, our ongoing insatiable need for capital and the new centrality of our superannuation system.]

    http://www.afr.com/p/business/financial_services/financial_system_inquiry_housing_hNHUx3A3hHqifOC6BzlD0K

  26. The Rowan Dean article is a comedy classic. Perhaps he is really a comedian engaged in some sort of elaborate long-running pisstake: a sort of Stephen Colbert on steroids.

    And to think that some posters on here thought I was being a bit harsh when I stated that comparing him to Piers Akerman was unfair to the latter!!

  27. Warringah might not be as safe as people think. A good independent could give Abbott a run for his money, especially if he really is on the nose in the electorate.

  28. [ Ivan Milat could win the seat of Warringah, as long as he ran as a Liberal. ]

    to be fair to Ivan, he did at least prove to have some ability in his chosen field, unlike the current member for Warringah

  29. What I don’t understand… well maybe I do, is why Bishop would grant an interview to the AFR, in which she calls the PMO on not sending anyone to Lima. Then noting that she was being forced to take Robb after a second request.

    This strikes me as a clear shot across the bow of the HMAS Credlin.

  30. From the Tingle article linked earlier:

    [ Equally, Murray has ignited the debate about the tax treatment of superannuation by calling for tax on the earnings rate between accumulation and retirement to be aligned. Given those rates are at present 15 per cent and 0, that is a big headache for the government. ]

    Now, my recollection is that the ALP actually went into the last election with plans to impose a 15% tax on super earnings over $100k / year?

    So this measure would be an easy one for them to support and an easy one to add LOTS to revenue over the forward estimates.

    And yet the Libs promised no change to Super. 🙂

  31. meher baba

    I had mentioned this at the time, but Rowan Dean went on a rant on a Sky program the other day about the uni reforms and that people should understand that they have to pay. The Labor person reminded him that people already do pay, and it was only free during the Whitlam reforms. Rowan Dean was then asked how much his degree cost him, and he said nothing. It was free at the time, and it wasnt his fault that he did not have to pay under the Whitlam reforms. What a bloody cheek i say!!

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