BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

The latest weekly poll aggregate reading finds depths being plumbed by Tony Abbott and Palmer United.

Only very slight movements on BludgerTrack this week, Labor’s strong showing in Newspoll having been dampened a little by a relatively weak result from Morgan. The seat projection is unchanged in aggregate, although the Coalition is up a seat in Victoria and down one in Tasmania. Palmer United has once again reached a new low. There’s quite a bit more movement on the personal ratings on the back of this week’s Newspoll numbers, which continue to show Tony Abbott’s net approval heading south with some velocity, and Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister solidifying.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,592 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

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  1. [Senator Penny Wong @SenatorWong · 4h 4 hours ago
    On polling booth in Fisher by-election. Greens handing out open ticket. Refused 2 preference progressive Labor woman & local Nat Cook.]

  2. Unich,

    I’m afraid I can’t respond to your illiterate ramblings. Your ideas lack coherence. Your jottings lack the basic structure that most people on PB learnt when they were in Primary School. Perhaps a bit of performance art might help you express yourself better.

    Therapy will help you expunge your guilt and hatreds. You certainly need it.

  3. [DECEMBER 6, 2014 / PRESTONTOWERS
    During the Rudd / Gillard years, many members of the Canberra Press Gallery was fuelled by the endless backgrounders, hints, leaks and so forth that emanated from the ALP. Gossip. The first year of Abbott hasn’t been as fertile for the press gallery. It appears that for the gossip columnists, though, Abbott’s government is finally producing the material. Today’s piece by Laurie Oakes is a classic example of a gossip column dressed up as political commentary. And we get the “woo hoo!” factor from the headline:]

    http://prestoninstitute.com/2014/12/06/backinthegossipgame/

  4. As posted earlier, I can foresee a border protection election in 2016, with Morrison as PM
    The ALP should campaign on the theme that the Government simply wasn’t ready to be elected.

  5. If laura tingle’s article is correct, then this govt really is a paradigm example of the dunning-kruger effect: being so dumb that you don’t know you’re dumb. They will appear in text-books for generations to come.

  6. I was talking to an old work colleague of mine today. He has always been a staunch Liberal supporter who has chided me much during the 6 years of Labor rule. He has had enough and has written to his Liberal MP telling him that they are marching their way back into opposition. The problem he says, is Abbott and he must be got rid of.
    He wasn’t so forthright when I asked him who would replace him. We left that one dangling.

  7. confessions
    Yesterday I was talking to an American defence specialist and he was despairing over the American gun culture.
    There is no way back.

  8. BK:

    Yes, the horse has well and truly bolted on gun culture in the US. Yet ironically the country has a mini economy constructed around law enforcement.

  9. [1439
    Greensborough Growler

    briefly,

    I don’t think anyone should be subject to arbitrary violence.]

    This being so, perhaps in future you will desist from referring to homosexuals as a “lobby”. Homosexuals are not a “lobby”. This term is normally attached to an abstraction or a special interest, like the “the tobacco lobby” or “the banking lobby”. Implicitly, a “lobby” has no human existence. It follows that the use of the term goes mighty close to disavowing the existence of homosexuals. When tied to the use of the pejorative “abomination”, it is also an attempt to deprive homosexuals of their own voice.

    This is consistent with your preference – mentioned a few times above – that if homosexuals do indeed exist, they should be silent on the matter or otherwise invisible.

    This forms part of the pathology of fear. If any evidence were needed, the various expressions, denials, elisions and attempts at evasion used show that suppression is still afoot, even here at PB.

  10. You promised to scroll past my posts. Here you are, a day later responding. What can one say?

    One could say thank you for the edification received from a moral and intellectual superior, of whom there are many, including Fran.

    Just say thank you to Fran and run along now.

  11. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@1459

    If laura tingle’s article is correct, then this govt really is a paradigm example of the dunning-kruger effect: being so dumb that you don’t know you’re dumb. They will appear in text-books for generations to come.

    You have to feel just a tiny bit of pity for them though.

    The D-K effect only works for your own incompetence.

  12. confessions

    That is much better that 47.5.

    I worry for a lot of those who have no air conditioning in the hot weather we have had in the last week particularly those in Housing Commission high towers.

  13. The Tories are different over there. Tones could be doing some serious wriggling next year.

    [Climate change proposal earns international kudos

    Climate Change Minister Tim Groser said the US was “serious” about climate change,…..”The United States Administration has described New Zealand’s proposal, essentially, as the only game in town,” he said.

    However, it was unlikely a concrete deal would be made in Lima, Mr Groser said.

    “What I hope to see, and I’m sorry to sound like a diplomat or a negotiator, is serious incremental progress towards a deal that we can cap off in Paris in 2015.”

    Paris will hold the UN climate conference from November 30 to December 11 next year, with the aim of achieving a legally binding and global agreement to tackle climate change]
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11370036

  14. BK@1462

    confessions
    Yesterday I was talking to an American defence specialist and he was despairing over the American gun culture.
    There is no way back.

    BK, I have had conversations with people from the US whom I respect and admire, but on the matter of guns they are simply not rational.

    As you say, there is no solution.

    No doubt others here have had the same experiences.

    I believe they are headed for civil catastrophe within five years, on the basis of the disparity between rich and poor, and the cheapness and easy availability of guns.

    There are lots of places where people carry around the equivalent of AK47s in full view, with evident pride. Some shops give a discount to people who ‘open carry’, that is, their guns are not concealed on their person, but are in full view.

  15. don

    [on the matter of guns they are simply not rational]
    It is not a new phenomena either. I remember a radio doco on some political convicts(Irish)who were rescued and sailed off from NSW to the States. It was mentioned that during their escape one of the Americans helping them was able to take some stuff without resistance due to the reputation of Americans as always having guns. This was in the mid 1800s.

  16. US casualty figures in various wars. ATM there are around 30,000 gunshot deaths a year in the US.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_of_war

    I suggest that there are changes happening and that the changes are not necessarily all negative.

    Rumble wrote a discerning article in Crikey on the topic a month or so ago. The change is that the anti-gun forces no longer aim for grand legislative change at national level.

    At that level the NRA has the money to buy legislators or to destroy them.

    The new tactics involve, inter alia, locals manning phones cold calling to persuade locals to support specific change regulations at local level. The aim is not the grand one size fits all solution. The aim is to aggregate enough small wins to make a big difference.

    These are similar in spirit to the sort of kitchen table conversation techniques and local mobilisation which enabled McGowan to defeat That Woman.

    Incidentally, IMHO, the gun culture issue is deeply embedded in largely-unfinished race war. It is essentially about whites keeping blacks at bay.

    The US is rapidly heading towards a demography in which whites are just another minority.

    IMHO, the major issue over the next decade or so, is the question of which element succeed in harnessing the spanish american vote. Will they become ‘honorary’ whites in contradistinction to blacks? Or will white racists drive them into the arms of non-whites?

    Or, will it become increasingly usual for individuals to identify themselves as beling to several races and/or ethnicities?

  17. I think in future years a lot will be written about this Government, as example would be journos ( who don’t need much of an excuse to write a book), I think the 7:30 interview this week was micro managed to an inch of its life.
    The decision was to go ahead in the hope they would get something, rather than deny the interview.

  18. The court of appeal decision favoring Margaret Cunneen yesterday is a serious blow to ICAc.

    It might jeopardize outstanding investigations ie ones to be reported on, ongoing investigations yet to be the subject of public hearings and future ones.

    Will there be a high court appeal. To get into the High Court, outside a constitutional
    issue, requires leave or permission of the court. Leave is not often granted. However given that there is a dissenting opinion from the highest judge in New South Wales and it appears to be a matter of public importance, the prospect of a grant of leave is much stronger than most cases.

    Maybe Richo’s luck has not run out.

  19. don @ 1481
    You are right. I feel America is close to a tipping point with the mixture of gun culture, inequality and police methods. It’s building up to a perfect storm.

  20. [Will Abbott be the 3rd PM to be ousted by Climate Change politics?]

    It would be apposite, seeing as that’s how he got in. Rudd too, and (come to think of it) Gillard as well.

  21. [A nickel refinery owned by Clive Palmer has reportedly been charged with six environmental breaches after toxic sludge was poured from its storage dams near Queensland’s Great Barrier Reef marine park.

    Queensland Nickel allegedly released the toxic waste at the edge of the park earlier this year, posing serious risks to the natural habitat because the ponds were full and not properly maintained.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/dec/06/clive-palmers-refinery-charged-over-alleged-great-barrier-reef-toxic-spill

  22. Currently pissing down AGAIN in Sydney, with thunder and lightning.

    Which put this 4.32pm story in the Herald in a tight spot:

    [Sydney could be spared from the brunt of a renewed storm cell building across NSW on Saturday afternoon.

    A severe storm warning has been issued for much of the state, including a forecast for flash flooding and large hail stones on the south coast and the Illawarra region.

    The warning excludes Sydney…

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/severe-storms-to-bypass-sydney-say-forecasters-20141206-121pdb.html ]

  23. Have any of you ever heard of the case of John T Williams?

    He was a homeless Nitinaht (from the north west of north america) man shot by Seattle PD Officer Ian Birk in 2010.

    Following the killing, which was basically a cold blooded murder, someone leaked copies of the SDP’s private newsletter to Seattle weekly The Stranger. I read some of the stuff in them and it was racist, paranoid and violent. And this is a PD in Seattle which is a fairly progressive US city.

    Sadly the only unusual thing about William’s death was the leaking of those police newsletters – police shooting minorities is all too common in the US. Birk wasn’t charged despite an internal firearms review finding the shooting unjustified.

    I dunno if the newsletters are still online, if they are you could find them via The Stranger’s column/website – Slog.

  24. I made no promise to scroll past your posts GG. I said merely that that was what I generally did. If you say something worth remarking upon, I may well remark upon it.

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