BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

The latest weekly poll aggregate reading finds depths being plumbed by Tony Abbott and Palmer United.

Only very slight movements on BludgerTrack this week, Labor’s strong showing in Newspoll having been dampened a little by a relatively weak result from Morgan. The seat projection is unchanged in aggregate, although the Coalition is up a seat in Victoria and down one in Tasmania. Palmer United has once again reached a new low. There’s quite a bit more movement on the personal ratings on the back of this week’s Newspoll numbers, which continue to show Tony Abbott’s net approval heading south with some velocity, and Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister solidifying.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,592 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

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  1. It just gets worse and worse.

    [The family of besieged Transport Minister Dean Nalder’s wife operates a Wheatbelt trucking business poised to benefit from the closure of big sections of the State-owned grain rail network.

    Tianco Pty Ltd, a trust company formerly directed by Mr Nalder’s wife Colette, carts grain and farm materials at a time when communities are pleading with Mr Nalder to reopen more than 500km of rail shut soon after he took up the transport portfolio.

    The communities face tens of thousands of extra truck movements a year on roads already considered among the most dangerous in Australia.

    WAFarmers president Dale Park said the revelations raised more concerns about Mr Nalder and the Government’s actions in closing the Tier 3 lines and refusing to intervene in the row between CBH and Brookfield Rail over access to other lines. “There will be a high level of concern in the Wheatbelt about this latest potential conflict,” he said.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/25701490/more-pressure-on-nalder/

  2. Guytaur,

    So you think Barr will campaign on his being a homosexual? I would have thought he would prefer it not to be of any significance to anyone when deciding their vote.

    Your pre-occupation with “gesture politics” exposes your rather shallow understanding of how politics actually works.

  3. “Yet another abomination of the language by the homosexual lobby.

    I would have thought the most important thing about Barr is whether he’s up to the job, rather than his sexuality.”

    Don’t worry GG, there’s a bigot in the Lodge. All is not lost.

  4. FarQU

    [I would have thought the most important thing about Barr is whether he’s up to the job, rather than his sexuality.”

    Don’t worry GG, there’s a bigot in the Lodge. All is not lost.]

    GG just can’t help himself on some issues.

    He is still living in the fifties.

  5. [ There is an article by Laura Tingle and someone else [Jacob Gehring Geher(?)] in today’s The Fin that puts the position that the Liberals actually believed their own bullshit and that they are now in a state of shock. They believed that they were better economic managers. They believed that they were adults in managerial terms. ]

    Yep. Magic Pixie Dust adherents the lot of em. It wasn’t just that they thought the ‘better economic manager’ trope was a handy little advantage they had amongst the disengaged. They actually guzzled down the KoolAid in the Howard years and now are mystified that reality keeps getting it so wrong.

  6. There are some clever people around.
    This from Graeme Henschel in the Guardian replies:

    1h ago
    3 4

    Twas on the good ship Tony
    Where all the crew were phony
    They had no clue of what to do
    But make up more baloney

    Captain Tony kept on lying
    Distracting and denying
    Into your eye, he’d tell a lie
    Then lie that he was lying

    The first mates name was PETA
    You wouldn’t want to meet her
    She kept tight reign on Tony’s brain
    And no one could unseat her

    The treasurer’s name was Hockey
    A big buffoon, quite stocky
    His budget plan, went in the can
    And now he’s not so cocky

    And then there was perfidious Pyne
    An odious man most prone to whine
    This silly smuck has his head stuck
    Up where the sun don’t shine

    There was a nasty man called Scott
    Who’d let asylum seekers rot
    A Christian jerk with a vicious smirk
    Like Christ, he sure was not

    The foreign officer was Julie
    Treated asbestos claims quite cruelly
    With her coiffured hair and deadly stare
    She’d plagiarise unduly

    The richest guy was Mal
    He’d play up to lefties well
    But his polished prose got on the nose
    When he backed his lying pal

    George Brandis was the legal man
    Though twas pretty hard to tell
    he set his sights on bigots rights
    Now his ego’s not so well.

    The Climate guy was Hunt
    A receding little runt
    His climate stance was left to chance
    A “stuff the planet” punt

    No one forgets that fool Abetz
    He really is a shocker
    He screws with joy the unemployed
    That man is off his rocker

    The medical man was Peter Dutton
    His GP Tax is best forgotten
    Access to health based on your wealth
    A policy that’s more than rotten

    There was a lass, Fiona Nash
    Could block a website in a flash
    Said twas her staff that made the gaff
    And nought to do with donors’ cash

    McFarlane was the industry bloke
    in strange robotic tones he spoke
    Car industry rooted, renewables neutered
    hundreds of companies going broke

    Sinodinos was the Finance wonder
    ICAC saw him moved asunder
    Was he Arthur or was he Martha
    Dodgy donors, major blunder

    Bernadi was the religious nutter
    he had his thoughts down in the gutter
    gay rights would creep onward to sheep
    This utter nutter uttered

    Then there is Mathias
    He’s one of the best liars
    He helped the banks but gets no thanks
    Cos his FOFA laws were biased

    This mendacious ship had run aground
    Their lying powers diminished
    The Murdoch press couldn’t fix the mess
    And Tony’s time was finished

  7. [1371
    Greensborough Growler

    Yet another abomination of the language by the homosexual lobby.

    I would have thought the most important thing about Barr is whether he’s up to the job, rather than his sexuality.]

    Considering the very long and shameful history of violent suppression of homosexuals, surely Barr’s achievement is something to celebrate. All things taken into account, the most important thing is not that he is homosexual, but that he has succeeded in spite of the hatred that might well be directed him on the basis of his sexuality.

    GG, you might also like to reflect on the merit of the term “homosexual lobby”, an expression that conjures up the suggestion that homosexuals have united to pursue some kind of exemption or preferment.

    The intent of this language can only be to deny the violence that is inherent in homophobia and to discredit the significance of sexuality as a component in personal identity.

    The term implicitly denies that homosexuality is real or authentic or valid in itself. We do not refer to straight people as belonging to a “heterosexual lobby” nor to bisexuals as members of a “bisexual lobby”. Homosexuality is not something that needs to be “lobbied for”. Likewise, we would not refer to a Catholic, Methodist, Jewish or Islamic lobby; nor to an Irish, Maori or Aboriginal lobby. At least, we wouldn’t use the terms unless we intended to represent these communities as having dubious standing.

    Since homophobia and violence are twins, the use of the term “homosexual lobby” is a form of sledging that goes close to licensing violence. Out of respect for all, it is a term that should be dispensed with.

  8. MTBW,

    You are actually the one that constantly lives in the past. Your incessant reminders that you were allegedly ‘somebody’ in the ALP for 30 odd years which terminated over fifteen years ago combined with your constant referrals to your very inadequate education nearly a hundred years ago now, demonstrates this point very clearly.

    So it’s a bit rich for you to be accusing others of failing to move on, champ. But, reality has never been one of your strong points, has it?

  9. [FFS a news organisation that had any integrity would have moved heaven and earth to get Sarah Ferguson to permanently host 7.30.]

    Couldn’t agree more. It is a shabby comment on ABC management that she is not in the job.

  10. Briefly,

    I am aggressively indifferent to pseudo achievements such as first “this”. I have clearly articulated why earlier and see no reason to repeat them.

    My use of language is my concern. I believe I am accurate with my descriptions. You can be happy or offended. I am not responsible for your feelings.

    This is an opinion blog. I have opinions and am not afraid to use them. I refuse to be muzzled by political correctness which you appear to be advocating. While I remain in the bounds of what is acceptable to the moderator, you will just have to enjoy the reality of alternative ideas and alternative ways of expressing those ideas.

  11. GG

    [your very inadequate education nearly a hundred years ago now, demonstrates this point very clearly.

    So it’s a bit rich for you to be accusing others of failing to move on, champ. But, reality has never been one of your strong points, has it?]

    My very inadequate education nearly a hundred years ago was delivered by the Brigidine Nuns is a slight against your own religion.

    You I would have thought cherish the Catholic School System.

    Grow up and get on with your life.

    I am sure your religious teachers would have taught you that if you have nothing nice to say it is best to say nothing at all.

    Sadly they failed with you!

    What a grumpy old man you are!

  12. MTBW

    [I am sure your religious teachers would have taught you that if you have nothing nice to say it is best to say nothing at all. ]

    If only you’d listened…

  13. Boerwar@1390

    Was Dunstan gay?

    He was apparently bi, but at the risk of another intemperate outburst from William, who cares?

    Aside from his politics, he was a wholly admirable human being and IIRC nursed and cared for his dying wife in a loyal and devoted way.

    He later had a male partner. So what?

  14. 1417
    Greensborough Growler

    I cannot force you to change you language, true. But I can ask you to think about homophobia and violence and their links to language.

    Many of us – very many of us – have family members who are still affected by homophobia. It is, in this connection, deeply distressing to me to think that members of my own family would be subjected to violence for any reason. It is even more confounding to know that arbitrary violence might stem from an irrational and vulgar hatred.

    You might wish to dismiss me. That is your prerogative. But you should not so lightly dismiss all those in our lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender communities who stand up despite the threat of violence. Such people are lanterns for interpersonal justice and dignity.

    We all find it very easy to identify with and honour the egregiously wronged – people such as Malala Yousafzai, for example. But many others also face violence and have to find the courage to do resist it.

    Those who cannot find it in their conscience to respect these champions cannot, in fact, diminish their accomplishments or their courage. But by their incapacity they can – and certainly do – diminish themselves.

  15. briefly

    Social attitudes have changed quite dramatically over the past thirty years. When i was a teenager, i did not know one openly gay person. All my children have friends who are openly gay and not bat an eyelid, as it should be. I am thankful that things have progressed so much and may it continue to do so.

  16. briefly,

    I don’t think anyone should be subject to arbitrary violence. You seem to be saying that violence against homsexuals is a special case because you know people or have family that are homosexuals. To me battered women, child slaves in Africa etc are jus as deserving of my thoughts as those you champion.

    Barr should be evaluatedd on his performance as a politican and Leader. His personal life style and preferences are irrelevant. That’s where I am at and I am more than satisfied with my views on this matter.

  17. [Barr should be evaluatedd on his performance as a politican and Leader. His personal life style and preferences are irrelevant. That’s where I am at and I am more than satisfied with my views on this matter.]

    I don’t think anyone’s saying BArr should receive special electoral privileges or dispensations for being a homosexual.

    It’s simply that he’s the first, and that’s a milestone worth observing.

    Only nutter Catholics clinging onto fairy tales about water being turned into wine and grown up men wearing frocks as authority figures would object.

    (I say this as a recovered nutter Catholic who went through all the God-bothering hoops, the guilt and the obsession with fancy dress. I recovered at 13 years old and have never looked back).

  18. BB

    [(I say this as a recovered nutter Catholic who went through all the God-bothering hoops, the guilt and the obsession with fancy dress.]

    Me too but it took me a while longer than you!

  19. It’s actually the flip side to those who choose to denigrate others because of what they may be. Celebrating someone, not for their achievements but because they have a label is a fairly pointless activity.

    The second half of your post where you drift off in to a bigoted rant demonstrates your wooly thinking, comrade.

    Personally, we’d all be better off if it was of no significance whatsoever.

  20. Thanks for the links BK, for other who missed them, they are on p27, 1311-1313.
    John Birmingham’s column is very similar in tone to Mike Carlton’s old columns.

  21. GG you criticise others for a ‘bigoted rant’ You possess the intellectual rigour of Santa Claus, or George Pell, or Mugabe. A large part of your mental furniture is taken up with an irrational belief, which colours your every observation and clouds your judgement. You are blind to the patent, self confessed immorality of your heroes, as long as they are ‘grown men wearing dresses’. As I said earlier, you have feet of clay, and are more or less a standing joke.

  22. GG

    [I would have thought the most important thing about Barr is whether he’s up to the job, rather than his sexuality.]

    So would most. Yet one can hold that view without failing to note that a person whose sexuality would once not so very long ago have seriously prejudiced his prospects of achieving office now no longer does.

    You say it would be better if his sexuality were of no importance to his office at all. Again, that’s unexcepionable. It’s sadly not yet the case, and was seriously not the case for most of Andrew Barr’s life. Within his lifetime in this jurisdiction, his sexual preference was illegal.

    So your avowal misses the point.

    Like Briefly, I regard your use of the term ‘homosexual lobby’ as incipiently homophobic. Gays do not and ought not to be oresented as supplicants for special privileges. They seek to be regarded as deserving of the same dealing as all others. Your terminology implies that their sexuality is a burden on others.

  23. Fran,

    You promised to scroll past my posts. Here you are, a day later responding. What can one say?

    I know you say a lot and take an awful long winded way to say whatever you think needs to be said including caveats, interlocutory injunctions and consideration of the Koalas habitat. But, really I’m a more practical person than you’ll ever be and I’m never going to be bound by the imaginary constraints you seem to delight in creating for the world.

  24. What does one wear in a homosexual lobby.

    Top hats and dickies?

    Not like the right wing catholic lobby though.

    Dress code is cassocks and the hors d’oeuvres are lolly pops served by altar boys

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