BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

The latest weekly poll aggregate reading finds depths being plumbed by Tony Abbott and Palmer United.

Only very slight movements on BludgerTrack this week, Labor’s strong showing in Newspoll having been dampened a little by a relatively weak result from Morgan. The seat projection is unchanged in aggregate, although the Coalition is up a seat in Victoria and down one in Tasmania. Palmer United has once again reached a new low. There’s quite a bit more movement on the personal ratings on the back of this week’s Newspoll numbers, which continue to show Tony Abbott’s net approval heading south with some velocity, and Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister solidifying.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,592 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

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  1. [To begin with, friends say, Hockey would not go quietly. It would be ugly..]

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/liberal-leaks-hint-at-eroded-trust/story-fni0fha6-1227146470132

    What an understatement!!

    Firstly, as has often been remarked here, Joe could whinge for Australia.

    Secondly, he has a huge sense of entitlement, coupled with the ability to rewrite history to suit his ego, complete with conversations which apparently never happened.

    Getting rid of Joe would lead to some, er, interesting times..

  2. confessions and guytaur

    I hope he wins the leadership.

    What a great standard bearer he would be to all young people who are battling with gender issues.

    Abbott would feel like throwing up!

  3. [Abbott would feel like throwing up!]

    Remember Abbott said wtte he felt uncomfortable around gay people? Would he be seen in Barr’s presence at COAG meetings?

  4. confessions

    Maybe not but then would Barr be interested in being in Abbott’s presence.

    I think not!

    I know whose presence I would choose to be in.

  5. [“The jungle drums are beating,” said one longstanding Liberal, who warned frustrations could come to a head in the early months of 2015.]
    poroti
    Jumpy January? Fractious February? Maudlin March?

  6. Apologies for this long extract, but since Axing the Tax was a major platform of this ignorant government, and the Treasurer, says Seccombe, really does not understand how AGW will affect the economy, I thought it worth posting (from the Saturday Paper). Seccombe also calls the Minister “the foppish Hunt”. An interesting choice of adjective.

    [The true significance of the abolition of the carbon tax was shown in this week’s carbon emissions index report, from analysts Pitt & Sherry, which flatly contradicted the treasurer.

    In fact demand had fallen, the report said. What had increased was emissions of carbon dioxide, the main contributor to climate change. They rose some 3.2 million tonnes. The abolition of the carbon tax resulted in the share of electricity generated from renewable sources falling and the share generated from fossil fuels, particularly the dirtiest of them, brown coal, increasing.

    “If the trend continues,” says Hugh Saddler, who wrote the report, “by the end of the current financial year, it will amount to an increase of about 1.5 per cent of Australia’s total greenhouse gas emissions.”

    Saddler notes Australia’s commitment to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 5 per cent by 2020.

    “So the task has got about a third harder in just one year,” says Saddler.

    Of course the treasurer did not mention that. Nor did he mention the fact that the abolition of the carbon tax is part of the reason the government is having so much trouble finding the money to spend on things such as health and education.

    Hockey’s own budget papers show the total revenue foregone as a result of scrapping the tax is $6.22 billion over the next three years.

    Add to that the $3.2 billion cost of Direct Action, and you begin to see that the government’s environmental agenda is actually pretty expensive.

    Costly to the budget, to taxpayers. Costly in terms of services not provided. And, above all, to the planet.]

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2014/12/06/greg-hunts-hostile-attack-the-environment/14177844001333#.VIJAzWe13lc

  7. guytaur

    Yes indeed!

    And unlike the current Goverment the ALP can deal with it.

    Could you imagine Abbot having a gay man or woman even in his outer ministry.

    I think not!

  8. [Hockey’s own budget papers show the total revenue foregone as a result of scrapping the tax is $6.22 billion over the next three years.

    Add to that the $3.2 billion cost of Direct Action, and you begin to see that the government’s environmental agenda is actually pretty expensive.

    Costly to the budget, to taxpayers. Costly in terms of services not provided. And, above all, to the planet.]

    I’m sorry, but “begin to see”? This was entirely evident to anyone who gave it even a cursory thought before the election, and was frequently mentioned here by myself and many others.

    That some are only now beginning to see the costs of DA doesn’t reflect well on their capacity for logical foresight.

  9. [Could you imagine Abbot having a gay man or woman even in his outer ministry.]

    He can barely tolerate straight women in Cabinet, and even the one he has needs to have a male colleague accompany her when she’s doing her job.

  10. [1350
    confessions
    Posted Saturday, December 6, 2014 at 10:25 am | PERMALINK
    The guy tipped to replace Gallagher as ACT’s chief minister is gay, which means he’ll be the first out and proud gay political leader at a state or territory level.
    ]

    What about Don Dunstan?

  11. confessions

    The Coalition stupidity is evidenced by their pride over the “Carbon Tax”. Perhaps they really have never been told the truth by Hockey, never read anything and just accept everything Abbott says as Gospel.

    Unbelievable, but . . .

  12. [1323
    confessions

    Morning all.

    You told us there was a budget emergency]

    The debt and deficit disaster jingle has outlived its usefulness, for several reasons:

    – the deficit has increased under the LNP
    – in any case, the deficit is the only thing preventing the economy from contracting
    – to reduce the deficit, the Government will have to increase taxes, something they will be loathe to approach

    The best thing about this is that Wayne Swan, Penny Wong and Julia Gillard have kept the country out of recession even though they are no longer in power. Labor should be making more of this!

  13. confessions

    I note also that Coalition constantly roars about Labor Waste, but Seccombe says they immediately took down the CC educational website, which had cost a motza. Many little actions like that have contributed to their current position.

  14. Yet another abomination of the language by the homosexual lobby.

    I would have thought the most important thing about Barr is whether he’s up to the job, rather than his sexuality.

  15. lizzie:

    Part of the problem with DA is that so much of it is relatively unproven. Why throw money at something that you can’t say with any certainty will work, having removed measures that were cost-neutral yet effective?

    It’s numptyville thinking.

  16. Anyone who is keen on the Chinese FTA should read a piece by Daniel Wolf in today’s Fin.

    Wolf expresses absolutely no interest in the FTA but his insights into what it is really like to live in Beijing and China should give the FTA trumpeters serious pause for thought.

    And I am not talking about PMA readings spiking at up to 700.

  17. 1302

    Victorian politics is least like your canned fish example compared to almost any other type of competition..

    Ads for lesser brands of canned fish make people increase demand for caned fish and most of the increased demand is for the buyer`s existing brand of canned fish which is most often the leading brand, thus the leading brand gets a sales boost from its competitor`s advertising.

    In Victorian politics there is no ability to increase the number of votes without taking away from other candidates/parties because of compulsory voting and compulsory preferencing. There are few abstentionists to bring out and no preference exhausters to extract preferences from. The informal vote is not particularly fertile ground for the Liberals anyway.

  18. In a new general assault on Indigenous communities, the Coalition Government is apparently preparing a national work for the dole arrangement for Newstart holders.

    Apparently the settings being envisaged are that there will be two scales: one for metropolitand regional Newstart folk and one for remote folk.

    Newstart holders in regional and metropolitan holders will be required to work 25 hours a week for six months.

    Newstart holders in remote areas will be required to work 25 hours a week for 12 months. Some of you will appreciate that Newstart holders in remote areas are predominantly Indigenous people.

    Naturally, along with bulldozing housing and infrastructure in remote Indigenous communities, the Abbott Government wants to ensure that any Indigenous Newstart holders are punished at twice the rate of non-Indigenous Newstart holders who live in Australia’s cities.

    This particular bit of rank racism is the brainchild of Twiggy Forrest.

    IMHO, if Forrest really wants to close the gap, he should simply hand back the resources that his family have been historically instrumental in stealing from Indigenous people.

    As for Abbott’s pet advisers, don’t expect them to do anything except explain that it is all good. Naturally, they will get as much space in ‘The Australian’ as they want.

    The Prime Minister for Indigenous Affairs is doing to remote Indigenous people what the Prime Minister of Australia is doing to our nation.

  19. zoomster

    I have a little (teeny weeny) sympathy for Joe. Abbott in lieu of actually developing policy signed up for the IPA wish list. HoJo was the sucker sent out to persuade the public to eat the shit sandwich that was made by Abbott but leaving Joe to the the blame. His sales job may have been so crappy due an utter lack of belief in what he was being asked to sell ? Either way it is a triple 😀 for me.

  20. Well, some of us have not enjoyed all aspects of Greensmail…

    …but wait, there’s more. The Shooters and Fishers in NSW are going to stop $20 billion worth of infrastructure investment.

    The Shooters and Fishers in Victoria are apparently looking at stopping the Melbourne Metro spend unless… unless…

    …they are allowed to shoot in terrestrial national parks and fish in marine national parks.

    I understand that the Shooters and Fishers are thinking and talking exactly like the Greens BOPPERs: they are keeping the bastards honest.

    Can it be long before the two majors get together and ensure that governments can actually govern?

  21. poroti
    That might be the wrong way around. Hockey (co)-signed up for it and Abbott threw in all the other junk that confused the message.

  22. p

    Hockey was part of the election con job that involved promising no cuts to services AND cuts to taxes. Economics 101 said that this is simply, not possible. They have now cut services AND increased taxes.

    Hockey was part of an Opposition that maintained a massive lie: that the GFC did not happen.

    Hockey was part of an Opposition that cut Swan absolutely no slack when the revenue base kept shrinking and shrinking and shrinking.

    There is an article by Laura Tingle and someone else [Jacob Gehring Geher(?)] in today’s The Fin that puts the position that the Liberals actually believed their own bullshit and that they are now in a state of shock. They believed that they were better economic managers. They believed that they were adults in managerial terms.

    But they are managing a trainwreck, economically and politically.

    Tingle reckons that they are, literally, in a state of shock.

  23. Guytaur,

    Gillard became PM because her peers believed her to be the best person to do the job at the time of her ascension. They were more interested in her abilities to deliver and the content of her character than her gender.

    You seem to be celebrating all that you’ve railed against over the years with Barr. Specifically, that it’s more important that he’s a Homosexual than he has the talent to perform.

    You are such a hypocrite.

  24. GG

    It may escaped your notice. I just posted an international press story about Barr after others posted.

    Also first female PM First Black President has meant something. You may not like the fact but it is the truth.

  25. Boerwar

    Yes I remember several Libs and their boosters predicting that if/when the Libs were back in power business would open the investment floodgates and then all would be well. A true FMD if they actually believed it and it looks increasingly like they did. It would certainly explain why they thought there was no need to bother much with work on policy.

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