BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

The latest weekly poll aggregate reading finds depths being plumbed by Tony Abbott and Palmer United.

Only very slight movements on BludgerTrack this week, Labor’s strong showing in Newspoll having been dampened a little by a relatively weak result from Morgan. The seat projection is unchanged in aggregate, although the Coalition is up a seat in Victoria and down one in Tasmania. Palmer United has once again reached a new low. There’s quite a bit more movement on the personal ratings on the back of this week’s Newspoll numbers, which continue to show Tony Abbott’s net approval heading south with some velocity, and Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister solidifying.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,592 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

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  1. [1296
    Nicholas]

    This issue is primarily refracted by the electorate at large as one of “order” or “control” rather than as a natter of humanitarian obligation or legal rights. For more than 30 years, the electorate has supported ever-more stringent laws intended to deter irregular maritime arrivals. It’s a mindset that results in terrible tragedies and desperate hardships. There’s a lot of panic, sensationalism, fear, dishonesty, cruelty and racism involved in this. There is also a lot of political manipulation.

    Sadly, I think it is also too hard for Labor to tackle alone. Time was, there was no partisan divide on the matter. Those days are long gone. There’s now a 3-way match in which the dignity and rights of highly vulnerable persons are clearly dispensable.

    There is only one way forward on this issue and that is to take the politics out of it. This would be good for Labor and potentially good for refugees, but would mute the voices of the LNP and the Greens. It follows that we are likely to see more of the same…more posing, more cruelty, more shame, more lies, more political scapegoating.

    In this as in nearly everything else involving the protection of the person against the arbitrary exercise of executive or legislative power, the best hopes must lie with the High Court.

    So sad. Our democracy is not what it needs to be on this as on so many other matters. Looking back, though Gough and Fraser both stood up on the matter of indigenous land rights, the great reforms were achieved in spite of the Parliament, not because of it. The judiciary found for aboriginals. Let’s hope they also find for refugees.

  2. [1300

    Do you have any evidence that having ALP versus Green competition helped the Libs?]

    No. This is surmise. I guess the Liberals would be pleased to see Labor and the Greens competing against each other rather than focusing on defeating their candidate.

    In product markets, when 2nd and 3rd ranked products compete against each other, usually the market leader does better than they would if there was a simple binary choice. Products 2 and 3 are competing for 2nd place. They need to compete for first place in order to maximise their chances of displacing the leader. (There are some very interesting examples from the canned fish market, where, try as they might, the lesser brands have never been able to roll Heinz. Competition – marketing effort – between subordinate brands has had the unintended effect of adding market share to Heinz products. Does this apply to politics in Melbourne? Maybe it does.)

  3. I am completely cynical about the Australian public. If they were not comfortable with what was happening to asylum seekers then the Lib/Nats would not be in power. The Greens would be the biggest party in the nation and no politician would dare intern an asylum seeker child.

    So, if the ALP want to win government they cannot afford to give any impression that they are soft on ‘border protection’. As I think ‘turning back the boats’ is not a sustainable policy for any government, this will make it hard to win the next election. I would not be surprised if the Libs go to the next election with Morrison as PM, and for them to win using ‘border protection’ as their main platform.

    I am that cynical about Australian voters.

  4. [1303
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.]

    There is a lowest common denominator in politics. In Australia, the LNP have a perpetual lease on it. It’s very discouraging, but it’s also great big fat mountain of insurmountable inertia.

  5. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AUDUSD:CUR

    The AUD weakens (USD0.8325) following stronger US labour market stats…

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-05/payrolls-in-u-s-surge-by-most-since-early-2012-as-wages-pick-up.html

    [A broad-based November hiring surge ranging from factories to offices and retailers powered the U.S. economy to create the largest number of jobs in almost three years, triggering long-awaited wage gains.

    The 321,000 advance in payrolls exceeded the most optimistic projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists and followed a 243,000 gain in October that was stronger than previously reported, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. The jobless rate held at a six-year low of 5.8 percent. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent, the most since June of last year.]

  7. Puffed, take heart from the fact that the asylum seeker question has never been a pivotal one for election outcomes.

    But it is not clear that boat people really had much effect on the election result. When the Tampa arrived, the Howard government had already been steadily improving its opinion poll position from the early 2001 nadir. Tampa and, later, “children overboard” melted the talkback lines, but so do lots of issues that don’t change votes.

    It was September 11, two weeks later, that sent Howard’s voting-intentions figure skywards, but by polling day they had subsided, and the result of fifty-one to forty-nine, while respectable for a government in good economic times asking for a third term, was no landslide.

    http://insidestory.org.au/a-vote-changer/

  8. briefly
    I remember a number of years ago at uni being at an intro lecture in Sociology, and the lecturer discussing what use it was.

    He told the story of a group of early sociologists who were doing some research for some Jewish group in the 1930’s into the social attitudes in Germany. They told the people who commissioned the research to do one thing, get out of the country. The researchers left hastily.

    If we were to research the feelings of the populace of Australia in regard to Asylum Seekers, I would be very afraid of what those results would be, remembering that the German people were subjected to a media campaign very similar to that which Murdoch has inflicted on this country.

  9. [1307
    Nicholas

    Tampa and, later, “children overboard” melted the talkback lines, but so do lots of issues that don’t change votes.]

    There is research on the “children overboard” story that claims to show two things:

    – people knew or strongly suspected the claims that children had been thrown overboard were false
    – they either didn’t care or were “pleased” in the sense that the lies excused their feelings of resentment towards asylum seekers

    This is an issue that has been manipulated by all comers for 30 years. I suspect it is one issue that the public wish would go away but which politicians cannot leave alone.

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Here we go! ICAC has Richo in its sights.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/former-labor-powerbroker-graham-richardson-caught-up-in-new-icac-inquiry-20141205-1217ha.html
    Michael Gordon – The year they’d like to forget. MUST READ! And look at the excoriating Tandberg cartoons in it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/prime-minister-tony-abbott-is-feeling-the-heat-after-a-ragged-year-20141205-11z5un.html
    Mark Kenny looks at Hockey’s big problems.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/joe-hockey-acknowledges-unrest-over-budget-20141205-12191j.html
    Peter Hartcher sees similarities to the Rudd/Gillard governments.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/fractious-leaders-play-an-old-tune-20141205-12170c.html
    Paul Bongiorno – Abbott through the looking glass.
    http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2014/12/06/abbott-through-the-looking-glass/14177844001326#.VIIMsjGUeSo
    John Birmingham – The Senate vs Pyne a victory for the people. He also looks at science cuts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/senate-v-pyne-a-victory-for-the-people-20141205-11zd9v.html
    Lenore Taylor pulls apart an example of Credlin’s (presumably) daily talking points bulletin to Coalition members.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/dec/05/the-coalitions-own-messages-are-neither-coherent-nor-convincing
    Katharine Murphy gives us five things learned from this year in politics.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/dec/05/five-things-weve-learned-from-the-year-in-politics
    It’s a little awkward being Malcolm Turnbull right now.
    http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2014/12/06/malcolm-turnbulls-loyal-remaking/14177844001334#.VIINlDGUeSo
    Stephen Koukoulas compares economists and traders.
    http://thekouk.com/blog/economists-and-traders-like-chalk-and-cheese.html#.VIIN7zGUeSo

  12. Section 2 . . .

    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/12/05/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-129/
    Baird’s billions not adding up?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/senate-v-pyne-a-victory-for-the-people-20141205-11zd9v.html
    Carol Mills in deep trouble as she is accused of misleading the Senate.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/top-parliament-house-official-carol-mills-misled-senate-report-20141205-120wkp.html
    Sarah Ferguson’s sidewinder at the Walkleys.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abc-star-sarah-ferguson-attacks-broadcasters-management-over-digital-investment-20141205-120oy7.html
    Judith Ireland gives us the highlights of parliament in 2014.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/the-highs-lows-and-whoas-of-federal-parliament-in-2014-20141204-1209w3.html
    Morrison’s Death Row – the new lost generation.
    https://independentaustralia.net/australia/australia-display/morrisons-death-row-a-new-lost-generation,7159
    Mike Seccombe tells us of Greg Hunt’s hostile attack on the environment. Read it and weep!
    http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2014/12/06/greg-hunts-hostile-attack-the-environment/14177844001333#.VIILyTGUeSo
    David Marr reviews Dan Mori’s book on the David Hicks saga.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/dec/05/david-hicks-lawyer-michael-dan-mori-on-the-pr-campaign-that-saved-his-client
    Ross Gittins explores the lessons we have learned from recessions.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/the-lessons-we-have-learned-on-recession-20141205-120vpw.html
    I’m lost for words!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-government-cuts-university-support-funds-priests-training-20141205-120a3c.html

  13. Section 3 . . .

    The perils of the office Christmas party.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/life/2014/12/05/ruin-lifecareer-work-christmas-party/
    Alan Moir on Abbott’s policy setting method.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    Ugh! Cathy Wilcox on feminist statements.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    David Pope with Katy Gallagher’s change of direction.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20141123-1t3j0.html

  15. mari

    Ah , another overseas trend coming to Australia 🙂 Also good was as well as a “beleaguered” we were given a bonus………..
    [A treasurer under siege, a foreign minister in a sulk and a defence minister about to be forced to walk the plank.]

  16. Our friends in the UK press appear to be enjoying our polity

    [A treasurer under siege, a foreign minister in a sulk and a defence minister about to be forced to walk the plank.

    Add a stuttering economy, a string of poor opinion polls and a seven-month-old budget stalled in an upper house some have likened to One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest – and it’s not surprising that Tony Abbott, Australia’s Prime Minister, is not in the holiday mood.

    As federal politicians convened yesterday for the last time before their summer break, Mr Abbott’s backbenchers – and even, reportedly, some of his own ministers – were in mutinous mood. If 2014 has been mostly dire for his conservative government, the past two weeks have been nothing short of appalling.]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/australias-beleaguered-abbott-endures-one-final-nightmare-beforechristmas-9907180.html

  19. POROTI

    Yes love those adjectives , just roll off the tongue Beleaguered etc. Now where is the local MSM used to roll when applying to Julia Gillard out here didn’t it? :devil:

  23. Morning all.

    Thanks BK for today’s links – loved the Tandberg cartoons!

    To all those coalition backbenchers scratching their heads wondering why voters hold such antagonism towards the govt, I’d offer the following: you lied to us. You told us that getting rid of the carbon and mining taxes would ease household expenditure, when the reality is it’s made barely discernible difference.

    You told us there was a budget emergency, yet cut revenue streams and hit the lowest paid the hardest in order to address the deficit. Not only did you lie to us but you treat us like we’re idiots and can’t see through your bullshit.

    Less than two years to go now until we can vote this rabble out.

  24. poroti

    Trying to be patient but hard with our MSM However hopefully “embattled” is next cab off the rank:smile:

    Some of the replies to my tweet on this were hilarious

    Off now with my LNP mates for morning coffee, quite a few are now seeing the light as far as government is concerned 😀

  25. Confessions

    Yep in a nutshell. They lied to the electorate. All this talk about selling the product is a joke. The electorate just arent buying it

  27. Several points in Katharjne Murphy’s piece are worth noting

    [Abbott clearly thought he who wins the tabloids wins the Lodge: a close relationship with News Corp was always key. That relationship promised the prospect of clear communication with a big audience. Abbott did not seem to realise that the old media structures and conventions that existed in Howard’s decade were in the process of being smashed up and remade. He vastly underestimated how difficult it would be to operate when he was on the receiving end of daily disruption, rather than occupying the happier position of visiting disruption on his opponents. It’s not just the media cycle that’s changed, Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott in different ways have altered the terms of daily politics]

  28. Yesterday I made disparaging comments about Leigh Sales interview with Abbott – blaming Sales for this piece of crap journalism.

    On reflection, I think the blame lies elsewhere. It lies with the insidious nature of this government, its interference with the ABC, and the Hunger Games in which ABC journalists are now combatants.

    Leigh Sales is not Katniss Everdeen, and she has a high paid job and family to protect.

  29. Trog Sorrenson

    Surely a capable person would have been able to conduct the interview in such a way to garner responses without the need to appear combative?

  30. vctoria:

    I was only thinking how strange it is that the media continue to compare Abbott’s govt with that of Howard’s when the circumstances surrounding the two are completely different, not to mention Howard was PM 3 parliaments and many years ago.

  31. confessions

    It is beyond strange. Here in Victoria we had both the Herald Sun and the Age endorse the re election of the Napthine govt. Fat lot of influence they had! The electorate are not as rusted on as they were in howard’s time. Even howard has acknowledged that recently.

  32. briefly

    [This is almost certainly a 3-cornered contest in which the LNP has won because of competition between Labor and the Greens.]

    I was waiting to see someone blame Labor or the Greens on this. Let’s be fair here. The Libs are polling too strongly in a three cornered contest and this might have something to do with the sophomore effect.

    If the Lib member was retiring, then we would have had a fair 3-way fight, but with Clem polling over 40%, it’s really an uphill battle.

    It’s still good to see the marginal effect making each candidate a more moderate member of their respective parties.

  33. [Surely a capable person would have been able to conduct the interview in such a way to garner responses without the need to appear combative?]

    Yes. She lacks even the basic interviewing skills necessary to do this.
    And I’m sure that journalists who show courage and professionalism in far more difficult circumstances likewise have ‘families to protect’. It’s a slippery slope when we start using that argument as a shield against incompetence.

  34. I should add that this idea that the Abbott govt have failed with their “narrative”. It is hogwash. We know their narrative. The govt inherited Labor’s debt and deficit mess and they have to fix it with these unpalatable measures. Despite the boosting of a fair chunk of the msm, the public have not bought it

  35. And the idea that somehow turnbull will be a better salesman. Really? He who gave us utegate.
    Now supporting direct action, stuffing around with the NBN and gutting ABC and SBS. What a frickin joke

  36. Trog Sorrenson@1328

    Yesterday I made disparaging comments about Leigh Sales interview with Abbott – blaming Sales for this piece of crap journalism.

    On reflection, I think the blame lies elsewhere. It lies with the insidious nature of this government, its interference with the ABC, and the Hunger Games in which ABC journalists are now combatants.

    Leigh Sales is not Katniss Everdeen, and she has a high paid job and family to protect.

    I agree with your conclusion, but it still reflects poorly on Sales that she hasn’t had the integrity or conviction to do the job we (i.e. the taxpayers) are paying her to do.

    Sadly, the same can be said of many of the second-raters that remain at the ABC simply because they couldn’t seem to land a gig elsewhere, and therefore pretend that the ramshackle hulk of the ABC is still a serious broadcaster in its own right and not just an echo chamber for Limited News.

    Still, you’d have to say that at least one person at the ABC has excelled at the job he was put there to do – i.e. Mark Scott.

  37. HoJo still whining how unfair life is to him. Also some hints we should have some popcorn at the ready in the new year.

    [Hockey blames team for unrest

    The Treasurer has added fuel to perceptions of disarray surrounding the Abbott government’s failure to receive support for its reform agenda.

    ………….But the mood for change has gripped some inside the Coalition who are looking to Communications Minister and former Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull to be installed as treasurer.

    “The jungle drums are beating,” said one longstanding Liberal, who warned frustrations could come to a head in the early months of 2015.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/joe-hockey-acknowledges-unrest-over-budget-20141205-12191j.html

  39. Yes, but of course they can happily shed someone like Quentin Dempster. Don’t want people who speak their mind or have some journalistic skills.

    FFS a news organisation that had any integrity would have moved heaven and earth to get Sarah Ferguson to permanently host 7.30.

  41. Raaraa – yes Clem would have to be one the most moderate Libs, if he weren’t he may not have got that 40%. Not uncommon that when State or Federal Coalitions lose they disproprionately lose moderates, possibly not good even for them.

  42. Here in Victoria, the train services did improve under the Napthine govt and they did keep their promise of protective service officers, which the public have supported wholeheartedly. The budget handed down earlier in the year showed a surplus of 1 billion dollars and the state has maintained its AAA credit rating. Supposedly the polls showed that the majority of victorians supported the construction of the east west link. And Napthine was an inoffensive kind of leader. Not abrasive at all. Yet we voted this mob out.

  43. [And I’m sure that journalists who show courage and professionalism in far more difficult circumstances likewise have ‘families to protect’. It’s a slippery slope when we start using that argument as a shield against incompetence.]

    Which was exactly my point. The insidious Hunger Games, brought on by this government, a metaphor that can be extended way beyond the ABC. e.g. Science and the CSIRO, education for the rich, willful ignorance of climate change.

  44. Good Morning

    That Independent UK article tells the real story. No reset or change the narrative lines there.

    As I said last night Turnbull will only be Treasurer if the leader changes and the only such candidate I can see picking him is Bishop.

    I think we will see Bishop as PN because Abbott has lost. His death knell was two things. The budget and the China US climate deal. Increased climare focus has only just started as we move towards Paris.

    Bishop can reset the LNP on both climate and the budget. Within the constraints left to her I think she is more likely to go to the less extreme Howard era of budgets. Still attacks on social security etc but no attacking universal health care or trying to introduce Pyne’s education model.

    We will still want the Tories out but like with Howard they might get a second term with such a change

  46. It also understands the CFMEU has taken issue with Aldi’s use of overseas contractors. Building industry sources said the union has had a long-running battle with Aldi over its use of international experts, which are brought in to oversee the German company’s specific method of laying its concrete floors to provide extra strength.

    A supplier contracted by the builder, who wished to remain anonymous, said he had no idea why the union had prevented his employees from working at the site.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/cfmeu-blockade-shuts-down-aldi-building-site/story-fni0fit3-1227146603546

  48. Oakes:

    [Yet just hours later, when yesterday’s edition of Sydney’s Daily Telegraph hit the streets with a front-page report on suggestions Joe Hockey could be dumped as Treasurer, some of his Liberal colleagues were pointing the finger at Morrison as a likely source.

    “For God’s sake, Scott’s been virtually living with crossbenchers all week,” said a Morrison defender. “He had a merciless focus on getting this legislation through. When would he have had the time to dump on Joe?”

    Other Liberals had different suspicions about the exclusive by journalist Simon Benson.

    Benson is well connected and one of his most important connections is in the Prime Minister’s office. Because of that, according to a senior Liberal MP, “people will not assume it has been written lightly”. Another source says: “Directing attention at Joe could be an attempt to give some cover to the PM. He’s the one who’s been stuffing up lately.”

    No matter who spoke to Benson or what was their motivation, the importance of the incident lies in the disunity and paranoia it exposes and the lack of trust at the highest levels of the Government.]
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/liberal-leaks-hint-at-eroded-trust/story-fni0fha6-1227146470132

  50. The guy tipped to replace Gallagher as ACT’s chief minister is gay, which means he’ll be the first out and proud gay political leader at a state or territory level.

    Great news for the gay and lesbian community!

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