BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

The latest weekly poll aggregate reading finds depths being plumbed by Tony Abbott and Palmer United.

Only very slight movements on BludgerTrack this week, Labor’s strong showing in Newspoll having been dampened a little by a relatively weak result from Morgan. The seat projection is unchanged in aggregate, although the Coalition is up a seat in Victoria and down one in Tasmania. Palmer United has once again reached a new low. There’s quite a bit more movement on the personal ratings on the back of this week’s Newspoll numbers, which continue to show Tony Abbott’s net approval heading south with some velocity, and Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister solidifying.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,592 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

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  1. And this from channel 9 news Melbourne

    Unity in the Abbott Government appears to be crumbling, just a day into parliament’s Christmas break. #9News pic.twitter.com/sM0qG3URFk

  2. Our local yokel Tories have soul mates in the UK when it comes to fair budgets.

    [Women bear 85% of burden after Coalition’s tax and benefit tweaks

    Women have been hit much harder than men by the tax and benefit changes since the Coalition took office, according to research by the House of Commons Library.

    A study taking account of the measures in George Osborne’s Autumn Statement shows that £22bn of the £26bn of the Treasury revenue raised from tax and benefit reforms since 2010 has been taken from women – 85 per cent of the total, with only 15 per cent contributed by men.]
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/women-bear-85-of-burden-after-coalitions-tax-and-benefit-tweaks-9907143.html

  3. Sydney’s Western suburbs have borne the brunt of the storms today, with the City (so far) mostly missing out. Some locations received 30+ millimetres in under an hour. At the moment it’s steady light rain and a few rumbles on the North Shore.

    So, thunderstorms six days running. And it’s been quite tropical with high humidity and temps tracking in the low 30s away from the coast.

  8. confessions

    Thanks. I found fhe report

    [A CAMPAIGN to destabilise Joe Hockey has been undermined by revelations that Tony Abbott’s ­office made a crucial decision to delay telling voters about the full extent of the nation’s financial problems.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/index.html?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a&mode=premium&dest=http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tony-abbotts-office-put-brakes-on-joe-hockey/story-fn59niix-1227146582951&memtype=anonymous

  10. confessions

    I doubt all this finger pointing is the way to go. They are responsible for not telling the electorate what their intentions were. For eg. I never once heard prior to the election from anyone from the coalition ever say that they were intending on deregulating universities.

  11. [1501
    victoria

    And this from channel 9 news Melbourne

    Unity in the Abbott Government appears to be crumbling, just a day into parliament’s Christmas break. #9News pic.twitter.com/sM0qG3URFk]

    It seems Abbott’s ministers are not going to carry the can for him any more. First, they refused to comply with the back down on the GP payment. Now they are setting the scene to direct the debt-and-deficit/MYEFO flak towards Abbott. Maybe all the nasties in budget came from Abbott in the first place. After all, he chaired the expenditure review committee that invented them.

    Maybe the main reason Johnston has not yet been dumped is because Abbott needs the conservative senators more than he needs a cabinet reshuffle.

  12. victoria:

    Guess they thought they could ride a new govt level of popularity by pushing through unpopular measures and voters would forgive them. It didn’t go according to plan so now they’re scouting about for scapegoats.

    Abbott and/or his office are clearly paranoid about his leadership being under threat, otherwise why schedule a chaperone for JBishop and whiteant Hockey so obviously?

  14. confessions

    Yep. Abbott built his whole foundation on trust and lack thereof for Gillard etc. how did he think he could get away with it himself. Delusional comes to mind

  17. [1510
    victoria

    confessions

    I doubt all this finger pointing is the way to go. They are responsible for not telling the electorate what their intentions were. For eg. I never once heard prior to the election from anyone from the coalition ever say that they were intending on deregulating universities.]

    The single-stroke way to liberate themselves from all of Abbott’s promises is to dump Abbott. Since he is an incompetent PM, this makes sense in any case. As I have observed before, Abbott has done a Rudd. He may soon find he has a lot more in common with Kevin Rudd than he would like.

  19. [Maybe the main reason Johnston has not yet been dumped is because Abbott needs the conservative senators more than he needs a cabinet reshuffle.]

    I hadn’t thought of that.

    If it’s at that point then surely any reshuffle that injects much-needed competence to the ministry is impossible.

  20. [Chris Kenny‏@chriskkenny
    Commentariat were wrong about Rudd I, wrong about Gillard, wrong about Rudd II and will probably be wrong about Abbott too… #auspol]

    The Sage has spoken…

  22. Briefly

    If you’re still tuned in I have a question I’d like to ask you.

    Does the very low 0.3% growth recorded for the last quarter indicate that a recession could be just around the corner? As I understand it, if we get two successive quarters of negative growth that would technically be a recession wouldn’t it?

  23. Watching the US program PBS NewsHour . While discussing jobs there was an interesting factoid re Repugs vs Dems . In the 70 years since WWII they have roughly shared time in the White House. During the Repugs time 34 million jobs were created while under the Dems 63 million were created.

  27. victoria:

    Other than accidentally implying he’s a part of some other media commentary over there somewhere, I think what he’s trying to say is that the commentary today about Abbott’s leadership and the general shambolicness of this govt is wrong.

  28. CONFESSIONS – Tony knows he can rely most heavily on the total incompetents like Johnston, because, without Tony they’re dead meat. He’s surrounded himself with a bodyguard of fools.
    The only person who matters a jot in all of this is, of course, Rupert. I’m fascinated by what game he is playing.
    Surely he realises that Tony isn’t marketable at the next election. He’s told too many lies. Even Rupe can’t sell him to the public – again.
    But the other options are hopeless.
    Maybe what we’re seeing from Rupe is that he really doesn’t know what to do.
    Maybe, at some stage, Rupe will start backing Shorten!

  30. [Maybe what we’re seeing from Rupe is that he really doesn’t know what to do.]

    I don’t think any of them know what to do. In many ways they’ve been tripped up by their own rhetoric in opposition.

  31. Insiders
    On #insiders tmrw: last show for 2014 with guest @Tony_Burke & panel @frankellyabc @andrewprobyn @PhillipCoorey 9am ABC @ABCNews24 #auspol

  32. [Chris Kenny‏@chriskkenny
    Commentariat were wrong about Rudd I, wrong about Gillard, wrong about Rudd II and will probably be wrong about Abbott too… #auspol]

    I love it when a particularly virulent member of the Commentariat refers to “the commentariat” as if he’s not a member of it.

    “It’s THAT media, over THERE…”

    Class bootstrap technique.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bootstrapping#Media

  35. [Antony Green @AntonyGreenABC · 29m 29 minutes ago
    #fishervotes -Don’t think we will know the winner tonight but Labor could cause an upset – results at http://ab.co/1vSiDp7 #saparli ]

    Who saw this happening? Not anyone I’ve encountered this week.

  36. Bushfire Bill

    Pity Kenny forgot to mention when THAT media over THERE were wrong. When they threw roses at Rudd or when they threw rocks at Rudd ?

  39. This just looks awful…

    [As for a Cabinet re-shuffle, “it’s really Tony and Peta’s decision, there’s no point pretending otherwise”, the MP said, referring to the Prime Minister and his chief of staff Peta Credlin, who has been criticised for a perceived excess of power within the government.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbotts-coalition-not-a-happy-family-say-backbenchers-20141206-121pj4.html ]

    … for Abbott.

  40. If Labor holds on to its lead in Fisher, this suggests real anger towards the Libs in the federal electorate of Boothby, and thus could be in serious danger at the next election.

  47. [Antony Green @AntonyGreenABC · 2m 2 minutes ago
    Liberals need more than 52% of pre-polls and postals to win, and they’ve polled 49.1% on the day #fishervotes #saparli]

  48. Andrew Elder’s latest

    [What we saw at Abbott’s press conference on Monday was his last stand.

    Polls a symptom not the illness

    Never mind the polls. That’s like taking someone’s pulse to diagnose cancer. There never was any substance, any plan, any grounds to believe Abbott could capably run a capable government. Everyone who thought otherwise – the press gallery, the Coalition and all who vote for them – were wrong. Everyone who thought otherwise and who isn’t big enough to admit they were wrong is participating in a pantomime about what a surprise it is that Abbott is no good, that he’s somehow come over poorly all of a sudden.]

    http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2014

  49. I may be a Labor partisan, but I’m rapidly coming to the conclusion that this Government is falling apart before our very eyes.

  50. K-17,

    If Rupert were the one pulling the strings then he would definitely NOT want Turnbull because Turnbull isn’t enough of a climate denier for Rupert.

    Morrison?

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