Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Another fortnight, another dire Newspoll for Tony Abbott.

The fortnightly Newspoll in The Australian brings the government little respite, Labor’s lead down from the 55-45 blowout last time to 54-46, from primary votes of 37% for the Coalition (up one), 37% for Labor (down two) and 13% for the Greens (up two). Tony Abbott’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, with approval down three to 33% and disapproval up two to 57%, while Bill Shorten’s remain broadly stable as they have for so long, with approval unchanged at 39% and disapproval up two to 43%. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister widens just slightly from 43-37 to 43-36.

Also out today was the regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Morgan. This has the Coalition up a point to 39%, Labor down one to 37.5%, the Greens steady on 12%, and Palmer United down half a point to another new low of 2%. Two-party preferred moves two points in the Coalition’s favour on the respondent-allocated measure, from 55.5-44.5 to 53.5-46.5, and previous-election preferences moves one point from 54-46 to 53-47.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research ticks a point in Labor’s favour, from 52-48 to 53-47, with the major parties tied at 40% on the primary vote (Labor up a point, the Coalition steady), the Greens down one to 9% and Palmer United steady on 3%. Further questions:

• Opinion on the balance of power in the Senate is found to be unchanged since July in being slightly favourable, with 37% reckoning it good for democracy, 29% bad and 18% indifferent. When asked if the Senate has been right to block or reject various items of legislation, yes outpolls no in every case.

• A little surprisingly (to me at least), 42% think the 1.5% pay increase for defence personnel fair, versus 47% for unfair.

• Fifty-six per cent disagree with the Prime Minister’s contention that his government has “fundamentally kept faith with the Australian people” with respect to election promises, with 31% in agreement. Opinion is inevitably divided along party lines, but Greens voters are found to be even more negative than Labor ones, albeit that the sample for the latter is extremely small.

• As Essential does from time to time, respondents were asked for their view on various attributes with respect to the two leaders. The last time this was done was at the height of the Coalition’s post-budget poll collapse, and the latest survey finds Tony Abbott’s position very slightly improved, most noticeably with respect to “hard-working” (up five to 62%) and “good in a crisis” (up seven to 42%), the latter being an interesting bit of residue from his now vanishing poll recovery on the back of MH17 and terrorism concerns. However, he has dropped a further four points on “visionary”, to 27%. Reflecting his long-standing poll stasis, Bill Shorten’s readings are little changed, although he is down five on “a capable leader” to 46%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,484 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  5. Inner westie

    [Glenny, you know I can massage numbers like a salty on shore leave. Give me a chance to show you my stuff.]

    Gracious! Now we know why he got on so well with that other famous messager. The twinkie, wasn’t it? 😆

  8. z

    I was trying to remember when both the Deputies were women and both were standing in for their respective leaders.

    This is a first, I believe.

    Of course, to add piss and vinegar to the brew, we have BBishop.

  9. Hockey will have a chance to get people to spend up big for Xmas – when he lands a job as a department store Santa following the 2016 election.

  22. citizen

    Various National/Country Party leaders seem to have been nicer than their Liberal Party compatriots.

    John Anderson and Tim Fischer come to mind.

    Presumed future leader Barnaby Joyce not so much.

    I am at odds with the direction the Nationals have gone, but I can see no wrong with Tim Fischer being deputy PM or someone like him.

  26. Briefly,

    But Joe’s trying to do so much to encourage us to spend.
    – encouraging us to spend hundreds of thousands on a tertiary education
    – encouraging us to spend up for every doctor’s consult, and every test.
    – encouraging us to spend just a little more each time we fill up the tank
    – encouraging us to spend more supporting family members under 30 who can’t find a job, or spend a bit more supporting charities that will support them
    – encouraging poorer older people to spend more on rates, power, water and public transport thanks to his cuts to subsidies
    – encouraging people to spend more on educating their kids by slashing $30 billion out of education spending
    – encouraging people to spend more on health by slashing $50 billion out of hospital funding

    Surely with all this increased spending Joe has been encouraging we’ll be sweet? Surely that’s how it works (along with a little Magic Pixie Dust)?

  30. R

    [I am at odds with the direction the Nationals have gone, but I can see no wrong with Tim Fischer being deputy PM…]

    Except that he is the Australian Ambassador to Ireland and the Vatican.

  33. [792
    Socrates

    Morning all. Another day, another great leap backwards into the middle ages (where Tone longs to live.)

    Now it looks like my taxes may only be used by religious nutters to brainwash kids. Great. Not.

    “More than 500 of Australia’s 2,300 school chaplains may not be funded under the Federal Government’s new chaplaincy program that begins next year, because they are not religious.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-02/non-religious-chaplains-may-not-be-funded-under-new-programme/5935450 ]

    As clear an indication of the ‘thinking’ and values of this government as you can get, and one of the most troubling and objectionable developments in our recent history.

    Also a compelling example of why we should have a stricter formal separation of church and state (for the benefit of both, I might add, not even the theists will ultimately win from a theocracy).

    Labor better commit to knocking this one on the head firmly when next in office.

  35. Pyne getting a pizzling in QT.

    He is that most dangerous of territory: getting mocked.

    Battling on gamely withal without going bright red.

  37. Pyne is singling Parker out.

    It’d be interesting if over the next few months other VCs broke ranks.

    It’s evident that a number of them don’t like the reforms but are keeping their heads down for fear of drawing too much negative political attention.

    Membership of Universities Australia is a furphy.

  39. Just Me
    Earlier in the year when Pyne said the religious chaplains would not be allowed to proselytise someone tweeted that it would be akin to hiring clowns and telling them not to be funny.
    The whole thing is a disgrace!

  44. “Mr Pyne asks the Opposition to bear in mind the funeral of Phillip Hughes when considering its behaviour during Question Time.”

    Hiding behind a dead man now.. The Coalition no doubt hoping for a steady stream of dead beloved sportspeople over the next 18 months.

  49. [Darren Chester MP ‏@DarrenChesterMP 2m2 minutes ago
    Parliament House is leaking – literally. Water dripping into House of Reps as I tweet! Knock yourself out with the best puns #auspol ]

  50. Funny how the MSM is finally catching up to the same page as me regarding the Fisher state by-election. After continuously declaring it an easy Liberal win, the Advertiser did a poll yesterday, resulting in the decent possibility that independent candidate, Dan Woodyatt, might win it – something I have been saying for a while now.

    Now, the media are suddenly noticing that the Libs have been rather negative towards Woodyatt (more so than the Labor candidate) – this was also something that has easily been noticeable for a while now. In fact, it was one of the factors that led me to consider Woodyatt a serious contender!

    The desperation from the Libs (whose entire strategy is to try and convince everyone, including themselves, that their candidate, Heidi Harris, is super popular) leads me to suspect they know it’s slipping away.

    My prediction: Woodyatt to win 53-47 (v. Lib)

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