Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Another fortnight, another dire Newspoll for Tony Abbott.

The fortnightly Newspoll in The Australian brings the government little respite, Labor’s lead down from the 55-45 blowout last time to 54-46, from primary votes of 37% for the Coalition (up one), 37% for Labor (down two) and 13% for the Greens (up two). Tony Abbott’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, with approval down three to 33% and disapproval up two to 57%, while Bill Shorten’s remain broadly stable as they have for so long, with approval unchanged at 39% and disapproval up two to 43%. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister widens just slightly from 43-37 to 43-36.

Also out today was the regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Morgan. This has the Coalition up a point to 39%, Labor down one to 37.5%, the Greens steady on 12%, and Palmer United down half a point to another new low of 2%. Two-party preferred moves two points in the Coalition’s favour on the respondent-allocated measure, from 55.5-44.5 to 53.5-46.5, and previous-election preferences moves one point from 54-46 to 53-47.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research ticks a point in Labor’s favour, from 52-48 to 53-47, with the major parties tied at 40% on the primary vote (Labor up a point, the Coalition steady), the Greens down one to 9% and Palmer United steady on 3%. Further questions:

• Opinion on the balance of power in the Senate is found to be unchanged since July in being slightly favourable, with 37% reckoning it good for democracy, 29% bad and 18% indifferent. When asked if the Senate has been right to block or reject various items of legislation, yes outpolls no in every case.

• A little surprisingly (to me at least), 42% think the 1.5% pay increase for defence personnel fair, versus 47% for unfair.

• Fifty-six per cent disagree with the Prime Minister’s contention that his government has “fundamentally kept faith with the Australian people” with respect to election promises, with 31% in agreement. Opinion is inevitably divided along party lines, but Greens voters are found to be even more negative than Labor ones, albeit that the sample for the latter is extremely small.

• As Essential does from time to time, respondents were asked for their view on various attributes with respect to the two leaders. The last time this was done was at the height of the Coalition’s post-budget poll collapse, and the latest survey finds Tony Abbott’s position very slightly improved, most noticeably with respect to “hard-working” (up five to 62%) and “good in a crisis” (up seven to 42%), the latter being an interesting bit of residue from his now vanishing poll recovery on the back of MH17 and terrorism concerns. However, he has dropped a further four points on “visionary”, to 27%. Reflecting his long-standing poll stasis, Bill Shorten’s readings are little changed, although he is down five on “a capable leader” to 46%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,484 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 30
1 2 … 30

  2. 54-46 and a further deterioration in Abbotts approval means another two weeks of wailing and gnashing of teeth from the Right. I guess there will be one more Newspoll before Xmas and there will be a break then. A 55-45 would be a nasty Xmas present for Abbott.

  6. I wonder how calculations for TPP is made here. Primary votes for Labor and Greens look more favourable but yet the Coalition has gone a bit higher in TPP. I’m guessing higher ‘Others’ from undecideds.

  9. bemused

    ‘Light rail’ aka ‘Trams’.

    Good for short haul, inner city.

    Singapore has a few ‘loops’ of light rail to pick up commuters and take them to a real train. Have a look on a map. Interesting idea. Might work for places like Rowville to link with a regular ‘real train’ service.

    Shamed I missed the transport discussion again.

    Just to clarify, Singapore has two operators running the train in a vary of configuration but they’re not all quite different.

    Older lines have drivers, newer lines (built within 10-15 years) are driverless. They run on software with operators overlooking in control rooms almost like an air-traffic controller (at least that’s what I saw on TV, but I hope someone can correct me on this).

    The driverless light rail routes are shorter than most of Melbourne’s tram routes and run in a circular fashion, usually with one clockwise, and one anti-clockwise around a loop, and they are all elevated. The designs are highly influenced by the rubber-tyre light rail originally built some 30-40 years ago at the Singapore Changi Airport.

    Each of the light rail routes strictly supplements a large suburb’s only train station in a hub and spoke manner, much like how local buses operate around a train station in Melbourne, but the transition makes it convenient for passengers vs buses.

  12. briefly@5

    A’s net-sat @ -24…I wonder how this compares with readings earlier in his term…

    From mid-May to mid-July he polled the following netsats: -30, -26, -31, -31, -29. This is his worst apart from those five. He’s now got an average of -15, cf Gillard -19.

  14. Abbott’s netsats since late October 2013 [hopefully copied accurately]
    +13
    +7
    0
    -5
    -5
    -16
    -12
    -10
    -7
    -21
    -30
    -26
    -31
    -31
    -29
    -17
    -18
    -19
    -19
    -11
    -15
    -15
    -19
    Now -24

  15. Raaraa@6

    I wonder how calculations for TPP is made here. Primary votes for Labor and Greens look more favourable but yet the Coalition has gone a bit higher in TPP. I’m guessing higher ‘Others’ from undecideds.

    I get exactly 54 from those primaries. Compared to the 55-45, Coalition is up 1, Labor down 2, Greens up 2, Others down 1.

  18. imacca @ 16: He had better hope his holiday turns out better than Mr Whitlam’s did at the end of 1974, when Cyclone Tracy hit Darwin and the Lake Illawarra hit the Tasman Bridge. And if it’s the sort of bushfire season that one feels is on the way, surely Fireman Abbott won’t be absent from his brigade in its hour of need.

  19. Following is the first comment on the latest Ozzie’s Newspoll commentary…

    From a nitwit named Ryan:

    “Means nothing, it will mean something in around 2 years time. Shorten is no better option unfortunately, Shorten is someone who never comes out with any ideas on how to fix or improve anything, at least this Gov has ideas even if some are ridiclous”

    Now, it might seem “ridiclous” (I strenuously doubt this is a typo) to Ryan, Murdoch News subscriber, but this is the ignorance you overtly well educated and not un-intellegent bludgers are up against.

    DoG have mercy on your collective soul.

  23. [ When I worked under a few bosses who were under the pump they were very cautious about taking long holidays. ]

    It did strike me as a very peculiar headline on a night when his approval rating is through the floor. Although perhaps getting him out of the public eye is the objective??

  24. Greens will have had a big bump (Sunday portion of poll) due to the warm, glowing, warming glow of gaining a probable first state seat in Victoria.

    If they hadn’t gambled 3/4 of the price of a nice house with city views in Brisbane on winning Melbourne, Newspoll would read:

    (accounting for roundings) LNP 37 ALP 38 GRN 11 TPP 55/45

    Nothing has really changed on TPP

    Abbott still stinks like a hobo’s underdaks.

  27. Stuff like this makes you realize just how hard these people work for us.

    [The timing of the Davos conference meant that Mr Abbott’s long-term chief-of-staff, Peta Credlin, had to cut short a skiing holiday in the US to accompany the Prime Minister.]

    Perhaps we’ve all been a little too severe on the Abbott government?

  28. Mark Kenny isn’t feeling the love.

    When all else fails, PM tells the truth
    Dubbed “Dr No” for his relentless pursuit of the former government, Abbott has banked zero credits in the pluralism and goodwill account of national politics.

    It is a sad reflection on our politics and governments that it takes some pretty hostile circumstances to get leaders to come clean, admit fault, and, yes, even to tell the truth. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

    Self evidently, that was the calculation Tony Abbott and his coterie weighed up before breaking the glass and pulling the tell-all press conference lever on the first morning of the last parliamentary week.
    …
    Australia’s most percussively negative opposition leader, dubbed “Dr No” for his relentless pursuit of the former government, Abbott has banked zero credits in the pluralism and goodwill account of national politics.

    And it gets sharper still because the rampaging opposition leader specifically ruled out using changed budget circumstances to justify breaking promises.

    Now he wants precisely that room.

    When Julia Gillard’s government faced serious revenue write-downs, Abbott offered no comfort, no understanding.

    Now he characterises an opposition pursuing a similar approach as “wreckers”.

    Voters see through it.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/shaken-abbott-has-uphill-battle-to-win-back-voters-trust-20141201-11xxir.html

    Kenny is normally a pretty reliable spruiker for Abbott. Maybe all those “Exclusives” leaked to News Corp from the government are finally starting to tell?

  30. This latest stuff in the Oz about the great reset and the need for long overdue holidays for the Abbott crew suggests to me that they really don’t have any other plan for the country. Other than to help their mates and trash everything Labor has set up just because.

    Geez we even get another eyeful of the he-man in his red budgies. We are real short on clips showing the bloke successfully governing the country – I’ll give you the tip.

    Their budget is a laughing stock other than where it needlessly hurts.

    Most incompetent federal administration eva!

    I am just aghast at this anti-science, anti-evidence-based-policy administration that we have.

    Only upside is that it is becoming increasingly funny in parts 🙂

  31. http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/frequency/commodity-prices.html

    [Index of Commodity Prices
    November 2014

    Release date: 1 December 2014

    Preliminary estimates for November indicate that the index declined by 1.8 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after falling by 0.3 per cent in October (revised). The largest contributors to the decline in November were the prices of iron ore and oil. The rural commodity and base metal subindices rose during the month. In Australian dollar terms, the index declined by 1.5 per cent in November.

    Over the past year, the index has fallen by 18.6 per cent in SDR terms, largely driven by falls in the prices of bulk commodities. The index has fallen by 15.9 per cent in Australian dollar terms over the past year.

    Consistent with previous releases, preliminary estimates for iron ore, coking coal and thermal coal export prices are being used for the most recent months, based on market information. Using spot prices for these commodities, the index declined by 2.7 per cent in November in SDR terms, to be around 21 per cent lower over the past year.]

  33. NW

    [Only upside is that it is becoming increasingly funny in parts 🙂 ]

    John Cleese will play Abbott after the Christmas Recess.

  34. The shakeout in commodities is accompanied by a slowdown in industrial production, almost imperceptible growth in world trade and recessionary conditions in Japan, EU, Russia and the materials-intense parts of China’s economy.

    This means the national income shock is going to get worse before it gets better and, in the case of the energy sector, may not recover at all but continue in secular fashion into insignificance. This would be great for the environment and for the economy in the long run, but will cause serious problems for the budget.

    This means Abbott’s current budgetary and political strategy is arithmetically as well as politically unachievable. He’s now said there will be no new attempts at cutting, which means he has essentially dumped his first budget and must look at revenue measures if the budget is to be brought back to balance.

    There is a white paper on tax coming out soon. This will be his one chance to get on top of the political dynamics. It will be fascinating to see what, if anything, the LNP can come up with on tax.

    Considering the terms of trade shock is still evolving – though Abbott (like Swan and Gillard before him) appears to be hoping it will reverse – there will need to be very far-reaching reform to taxation if the fiscal position is to be consolidated.

    The underlying budget deficit is around 3% of GDP. This is a measure of how much tax we should be collecting from ourselves, but aren’t. It’s big. It’s a lot more than reforms to Super, capital gains tax and -ve gearing will raise, though these things must be done.

    Looking ahead, tax is going to be the next battleground. It’s invariably the toughest space. Governments have been trying to cut taxes ever since the 1990s and have been very loathe to raise them, though both the last Labor Government and this Government have made small moves in that direction.

    Tax, unemployment, the exchange rate and real incomes…these will determine the coming year, and maybe the result of the next election.

  35. briefly

    [Governments have been trying to cut taxes ever since the 1990s]

    Rudd’s greatest moment was ‘meeting’ JWH’s tax cut.

  36. Abbott is going to tell the Davos conference how he stopped the boats and halted action on climate change and how mean the Senate is being. Hopefully the Davos delegates will think it’s Sir Les Patterson, not the Prime Minister of Australia.

  40. [35
    CTar1

    briefly

    Governments have been trying to cut taxes ever since the 1990s

    Rudd’s greatest moment was ‘meeting’ JWH’s tax cut.]

    Rudd…..pfffttt!

    Unless we can accelerate the growth rate in real per capita income, taxes will have to rise. The demographics are inexorable.

    When it comes to income growth rates, we have problems: we under-invest in the frontier new-tech economy; we have over-invested in bulk materials and fossil fuels; and we direct too much of our income into consumption – that is, into the world’s most insanely over-priced housing. This all has to change.

  41. A bit of trivia – today is the 42nd anniversary of the Federal election that ended 23 years of Conservative rule and brought Gough Whitlam to power.

  42. Daniel has a big task ahead. The Coalition shrank the State.

    [Victoria accounts for more than one-fifth of Australia’s economy. No other state, apart from NSW, produces more. Yet in the past six years its output per person has stalled. Victoria produces scarcely any more per person than it did in 2008.

    Victoria’s construction industry stood still in 2014. Over the year to September it grew just 0.7 of one per cent. No other state performed as badly. The NSW construction industry grew 19 per cent.

    To withdraw a promised $3 billion from Victoria’s construction industry (half for East West Link stage 1, half for stage 2) would be to deny a boost to the state that needs it the most, and to deny a boost to the national economy in the process. Abbott himself said building the East West Link would create almost 7000 temporary jobs.

    There’s every reason to believe that Melbourne Metro would create as many jobs. It is the purpose for which the $3 billion was originally intended before Abbott diverted it into roads.
    . . .
    And here’s another tip: Abbott and Joe Hockey as good as wrote off Victoria during the campaign in order to salvage their budget. And not in the way you might think.

    It would have made political sense to ditch the Medicare fee increases and the bulk of the changes to university funding before or during the election campaign. They weren’t likely to get through the Senate.

    Instead they, kept them as government policy to tide them through to an event they believed was more important than the Victorian election – the release of the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook on December 16.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/pm-will-rob-the-nation-if-he-rips-off-victoria-20141201-11x9x0.html

  43. No sympathy for Credlin of course, re Davos.
    Tones is old enough, surely he can go by himself, he can even take some other advisors.
    No one is indispensable.

  44. Thanks Steve777, worth remembering.
    I remember when Gough was asked about it later, he said the day was appropriate as it was the anniversary of the battle of Austerlitz.

  45. [41
    Steve777

    A bit of trivia – today is the 42nd anniversary of the Federal election that ended 23 years of Conservative rule and brought Gough Whitlam to power.]

    Not trivia…a momentous day…a day for rejoicing…

  46. Re John Reidy @44: here’s the quote regarding Austerlitz when Billy McMahon finally announced the date of the 1972 election:

    […When Prime Minister McMahon set the date for the 1972 election as December 2, Whitlam noted that it was the anniversary of the 1805 Battle of Austerlitz, when Napoleon defeated the Russian and Austrian armies. It was, he said, “a date on which a crushing defeat was administered to a coalition – another ramshackle, reactionary coalition”.]

    http://www.andrewleigh.com/condolence_motion_for_the_hon_gough_whitlam_ac_qc

  47. The IPA view, courtesy the smug little ideologist James Patterson. “Every man for himself and the devil take the hindmost.”

    \http://www.theage.com.au/comment/liberals-shouldnt-have-abandoned-their-principles-20141201-11xjpf.html

  48. [today is the 42nd anniversary of the Federal election that ended 23 years of Conservative rule and brought Gough Whitlam to power.]

    Time passes fast.

  50. So Abbott needs a “well earned break”.

    Since he doesn’t think global warming is anything special, he won’t be available to fight any fires in his State in the summer?

    Or to ponce about being “sympathetic” to anyone who loses their home. (If I lose mine, I don’t want him to come within a bull’s roar of me.)

Comments Page 1 of 30
1 2 … 30

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *