Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Another fortnight, another dire Newspoll for Tony Abbott.

The fortnightly Newspoll in The Australian brings the government little respite, Labor’s lead down from the 55-45 blowout last time to 54-46, from primary votes of 37% for the Coalition (up one), 37% for Labor (down two) and 13% for the Greens (up two). Tony Abbott’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, with approval down three to 33% and disapproval up two to 57%, while Bill Shorten’s remain broadly stable as they have for so long, with approval unchanged at 39% and disapproval up two to 43%. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister widens just slightly from 43-37 to 43-36.

Also out today was the regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Morgan. This has the Coalition up a point to 39%, Labor down one to 37.5%, the Greens steady on 12%, and Palmer United down half a point to another new low of 2%. Two-party preferred moves two points in the Coalition’s favour on the respondent-allocated measure, from 55.5-44.5 to 53.5-46.5, and previous-election preferences moves one point from 54-46 to 53-47.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research ticks a point in Labor’s favour, from 52-48 to 53-47, with the major parties tied at 40% on the primary vote (Labor up a point, the Coalition steady), the Greens down one to 9% and Palmer United steady on 3%. Further questions:

• Opinion on the balance of power in the Senate is found to be unchanged since July in being slightly favourable, with 37% reckoning it good for democracy, 29% bad and 18% indifferent. When asked if the Senate has been right to block or reject various items of legislation, yes outpolls no in every case.

• A little surprisingly (to me at least), 42% think the 1.5% pay increase for defence personnel fair, versus 47% for unfair.

• Fifty-six per cent disagree with the Prime Minister’s contention that his government has “fundamentally kept faith with the Australian people” with respect to election promises, with 31% in agreement. Opinion is inevitably divided along party lines, but Greens voters are found to be even more negative than Labor ones, albeit that the sample for the latter is extremely small.

• As Essential does from time to time, respondents were asked for their view on various attributes with respect to the two leaders. The last time this was done was at the height of the Coalition’s post-budget poll collapse, and the latest survey finds Tony Abbott’s position very slightly improved, most noticeably with respect to “hard-working” (up five to 62%) and “good in a crisis” (up seven to 42%), the latter being an interesting bit of residue from his now vanishing poll recovery on the back of MH17 and terrorism concerns. However, he has dropped a further four points on “visionary”, to 27%. Reflecting his long-standing poll stasis, Bill Shorten’s readings are little changed, although he is down five on “a capable leader” to 46%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,484 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  6. lizzie
    Good sign. It always rains more under Labor.

    The Australian winter crop harvest (now in progress) is around 16% lower as a result of a lack of rain.

    If this is a general fall and another five inchces falls as well before Christmas, it is not too late to rescue the summer planting.

    If it does not fall, then the summer planting will be much reduced as well.

  7. Tim Fischer eh he of “Bucket loads of extinguishment” (of native title) ? No thanks.

    [The 10-point plan that undid the good done on native title

    Date June 1, 2011

    Paul Keating

    …….Of course, that decision of the High Court was attacked mercilessly by the Howard government. That villain Tim Fischer boasted that there would be bucket loads of extinguishment, in the Howard government’s response to the decision.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/the-10point-plan-that-undid-the-good-done-on-native-title-20110531-1feec.html

  13. The University of Western Australia actually offers units which count towards a Degree in Medicine, not the Degree itself.

    Not so unusual, tests the ability of students to progress further.

    TAFEs do the same sort of things with degree entrance courses, which can be used as credits towards a degree.

  15. [1094
    Bob’s Uncle
    Posted Wednesday, December 3, 2014 at 2:23 pm | PERMALINK
    “Mr Pyne asks the Opposition to bear in mind the funeral of Phillip Hughes when considering its behaviour during Question Time.”

    Hiding behind a dead man now.. The Coalition no doubt hoping for a steady stream of dead beloved sportspeople over the next 18 months.]

    Or plane crashes. Or natural disasters. Or anything that provides an opportunity for Abbott to give the appearance of statesmanlike behaviour.

  16. Where are the savings now? Gone to pork.

    [The new bill reveals the government has significantly revised down the estimated budget savings, cutting the four-year impact from $3.9bn to $451m.

    The concessions include scrapping the plan to increase interest rates on student loans, freezing indexation on debts for low-earning primary carers of young children, and a $100m structural adjustment fund to help universities move to the new system.

    Universities Australia is calling for the structural adjustment fund to be increased to $500m, an additional $400m cost that, if accepted, would eliminate almost all of the package’s remaining budget savings over four years.

    Despite the lower savings over the budget period, the government maintained its measures would improve the sustainability of higher education funding and “contribute to repair of the budget over the longer term”.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/dec/03/higher-education-bill-abbott-government-trades-away-35bn-budget-savings

  17. briefly @790

    Assuming for the sake of argument thatb the ALP sees itself as at least in broad terms institutionally OK and not in need of discontinuous improvement, then the way to assemble a Labor-Greens majority is for the ALP to continue to pitch at winnable voters on the right while allowing us to pitch at left-of-centre voters.

    Structurally, our voting system isn’t very good at accommodating that, but if we had PR then in the short to medium term, we could carve out about 17-20% of the vote on the left and the ALP could grab another 35-38% between the just barely centre-left and centre-right. We could support an ALP-led regime (except on issues of fundamental concern e.g. war, asylum seekers etc) and the LNP would be a permanent minority.

    Simple.

  18. I did not know I could loathe a man as much as I loathe Morrison. I get the same visceral loathing and detestation in Morrison as I get seeing a picture of nazi Sturmtruppen. No joke.

  19. [1089
    BK

    Earlier in the year when Pyne said the religious chaplains would not be allowed to proselytise someone tweeted that it would be akin to hiring clowns and telling them not to be funny.]

    Ridiculous claim, isn’t it. Proselytising is arguably the main purpose of becoming a chaplain (or equivalent).

    Got no problem with religions offering to supply chaplains for those who wish to visit them, at no cost to the public purse and with no special status in the education system. But the paid ones must be employed on a strictly secular and properly qualified basis. Not up for negotiation.

    [The whole thing is a disgrace!]

    Yep. No good can come from this in the long run. Few things make my blood boil harder than the deliberate de-rationalising of education and public debate. (Which is one reason I so loathe Murdoch.)

    The government should be dismissed for this dangerous regressive policy alone.

    I await the day when some kid secretly records the chaplain clearly crossing that line Pyne has said they will never cross. With a bit of luck it will be over Teh Evool Gayness issue, just to drive the point home.

  21. [1094
    Bob’s Uncle

    “Mr Pyne asks the Opposition to bear in mind the funeral of Phillip Hughes when considering its behaviour during Question Time.”]

    Wow. Just when you think they couldn’t sink any lower.

    We shouldn’t be surprised. It is just the continuation and expansion of their default tactics.

  22. An ALP- Green alliance needs to have mutual deniability built in otherwise we get Bob BrownBitchability problems. I think the organ grinder and mernkey in the Pink Panther movie is a good model for this. When Clousseaux tries to pinch the organ grinder ,…”he’s not my mernkey – we just work together…”

  31. What we are seeing now is the end result of 22 years without a recession. Abbott and Co are a manifestation of the great complacency. Now people will start looking for real leaders who can pull us out of this mess.

  33. [1117
    Puff, the magic dragon
    I did not know I could loathe a man as much as I loathe Morrison. I get the same visceral loathing and detestation in Morrison as I get seeing a picture of nazi Sturmtruppen. No joke.    ]

    I’m right there with you on at one, Puff.

  34. poroti

    Have been out and about. Re Paul Murray. I never watch his show, but dived in last night and watched it. The panel members were Rowan Dean and someone called Hugh? Anyhow, paul Murray started off with a rant blaming the senate and jacqui lambie in particular. In a nutshell wanting the govt to send a cohesive message to the electorate that we cannot spend more than we receive and then go to a DD to get rid of “crazy senators”. What a first class w@@nker

  35. [844
    guytaur
    “@markparton: Could this be a one term Govt ? John Howard – “Anything is possible and we live in politically volatile times.””    ]

    That strikes me as pretty major, seems as if Howard has all but written off this Government.

  37. Oh and I should add that Rowan Dean went in a rant about people having to understand that they should pay for higher education and not to expect it for free. The Hugh guy reminded him that people are already paying for it. Then hugh asked Rowan if he got a free uni education, to which he replied yes not my fault that it was free under the whitlam era etc. what a frickin disgrace

  39. victoria

    Thanks. I like to drop in to watch now and again when there is some topic I know uber shills like him will go off on. It’s always so over the top it is funny.

  47. Victoria

    Rowan Dean is one of, if not the most painful conservative commentator going around, he is on par with Piers

    Huge McDermot is from an ALP think tank

    Paul Murray is about the only media person who still thinks Tony is doing an excellent job.

  48. [Then hugh asked Rowan if he got a free uni education, to which he replied yes not my fault that it was free under the whitlam era etc. what a frickin disgrace]

    Even after 30 + years of watching politics closely, the blatancy of Tory hypocrisy is still breathtaking.

    These guys are the real parasites on society.

    If they find that system of funding education so offensive, why don’t they set a noble example and pay back the full cost of their ‘free’ (i.e. taxpayer funded) degree, with backdated interest.

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