Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Another fortnight, another dire Newspoll for Tony Abbott.

The fortnightly Newspoll in The Australian brings the government little respite, Labor’s lead down from the 55-45 blowout last time to 54-46, from primary votes of 37% for the Coalition (up one), 37% for Labor (down two) and 13% for the Greens (up two). Tony Abbott’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, with approval down three to 33% and disapproval up two to 57%, while Bill Shorten’s remain broadly stable as they have for so long, with approval unchanged at 39% and disapproval up two to 43%. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister widens just slightly from 43-37 to 43-36.

Also out today was the regular fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS poll from Morgan. This has the Coalition up a point to 39%, Labor down one to 37.5%, the Greens steady on 12%, and Palmer United down half a point to another new low of 2%. Two-party preferred moves two points in the Coalition’s favour on the respondent-allocated measure, from 55.5-44.5 to 53.5-46.5, and previous-election preferences moves one point from 54-46 to 53-47.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research ticks a point in Labor’s favour, from 52-48 to 53-47, with the major parties tied at 40% on the primary vote (Labor up a point, the Coalition steady), the Greens down one to 9% and Palmer United steady on 3%. Further questions:

• Opinion on the balance of power in the Senate is found to be unchanged since July in being slightly favourable, with 37% reckoning it good for democracy, 29% bad and 18% indifferent. When asked if the Senate has been right to block or reject various items of legislation, yes outpolls no in every case.

• A little surprisingly (to me at least), 42% think the 1.5% pay increase for defence personnel fair, versus 47% for unfair.

• Fifty-six per cent disagree with the Prime Minister’s contention that his government has “fundamentally kept faith with the Australian people” with respect to election promises, with 31% in agreement. Opinion is inevitably divided along party lines, but Greens voters are found to be even more negative than Labor ones, albeit that the sample for the latter is extremely small.

• As Essential does from time to time, respondents were asked for their view on various attributes with respect to the two leaders. The last time this was done was at the height of the Coalition’s post-budget poll collapse, and the latest survey finds Tony Abbott’s position very slightly improved, most noticeably with respect to “hard-working” (up five to 62%) and “good in a crisis” (up seven to 42%), the latter being an interesting bit of residue from his now vanishing poll recovery on the back of MH17 and terrorism concerns. However, he has dropped a further four points on “visionary”, to 27%. Reflecting his long-standing poll stasis, Bill Shorten’s readings are little changed, although he is down five on “a capable leader” to 46%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,484 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Just had a look at the article on Abbott’s holiday. Despite it being in the Australian, a lot of the comments were quite negative.

    And ho is it that lots op the political articles in the GG are now outside the paywall? Van Insolent’s feature today is, plus this article and quite a few others lately. Has Rupert realised he’s lost the yes of the Australian public?

  3. Do that second para again (new keyboard):

    And how is it that lots of the political articles in the GG are now outside the paywall? Van Insolent’s feature today is, plus this article and quite a few others lately. Has Rupert realised he’s lost the eyes of the Australian public?

  5. Thinking of Abbott’s big reboot yesterday, I was reminded that when someone like his hero Howard wanted to “change the narrative”, they would come out and announce something new, some change in direction.

    Abbott just stuck to his guns, with a plea for sympathy attached. He’s not a politician’s bootlace, and all that sycophancy by the media has done nothing except give him a false sense of his own abilities.

  7. [54
    lizzie]

    They are so repulsive!
    I really try to avoid that stuff, but you’re right. It’s good to be reminded now and then of just how demented and immoral they are.

  11. 55
    lizzie

    They had a plan…cut spending, balance the budget, promise tax cuts, win the next election.

    It was a crap plan that was always likely to fail, but they don’t have another one.

    They will be thrown out for unusual incompetence as well as serial deceptions. They have certainly tried to trick the public, but beyond that they have also tricked themselves. They’re idiots.

  12. Morning all. The sun is shining, birds singing, and not even the Australian can hide the fact that Tony Abbott is an unintelligent bully whom most voters do not like.

    No doubt BK will cover the local headlines with his usual thoroughness. I thought I would link the following two stories, which highlight the typical behaviour of Israeli settlers and soldiers in the conquered territories in Palestine, against the local inhabitants. I doubt they will make the local news because, after all, the Israelis are the good guys.
    http://www.juancole.com/2014/12/palestinian-settler-invasions.html
    http://www.juancole.com/2014/11/soldiers-activist-palestinians.html

  13. Amusing to finally see leadership and ministerial speculation about the Abbott government. Jot before time. Have a good day all.

  14. Ok, can anyone explain what the hell this means? The ABC are headlining about an ALP ‘stunt’ that has prevented any movement on the higher education bill. How is this possible? Doesn’t the government set the order in which things are debated by the Senate? How can amending one bill (and sending it back to the lower house) affect debate on what appears to be an entirely separate bill?

    If it is the case that the Senate has otherwise voted to ignore the Higher Education bill for now – send it off to committee or whatever – that’s a different matter.

    Conroy’s stunt:

    He brought on a government bill to get rid of red tape but added a clause insisting on an open tender process for buying new submarines.

    “So that our new submarine fleet cannot be built without a competitive tender process,” he said.

    Senator Conroy’s tactic was to put pressure on South Australian Liberals who have been calling for the submarines to be built in their home state.

    “So you have said this is what you believe should happen, well now is the chance for you to prove that what you have been saying is what you are going to do,” he said.

    The Manager of Government Business, Mitch Fifield, was furious about what he called a stunt.

    “One of the most blatant and significant breaches of faith that I have seen in my 10 years. It is one of the most appalling things I have seen,” Senator Fifield said.

    The Greens and all but two of the crossbenchers backed Labor and now the Government cannot return to its higher education plan until the red tape bill has been dealt with.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-02/government-struggles-to-get-higher-education-bills-through-the-/5932624

    Huh? Why can’t the government return to its higher education plan until the red tape bill has been dealt with?

    And I’ll grant that the amendment from Conroy about competitive tenders is a stunt, but … so what? It seems harmless enough in itself and will just be knocked out by the HoR. Did the government do something unusual and somehow classify the red tape bill as being of ultimate importance and everything else had to stop until it was dealt with?

  15. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Everywhere Abbott goes there’s a barrier placed there by himself says Lenore Taylor.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/dec/01/everywhere-tony-abbott-turns-theres-a-barrier-he-placed-there-himself
    Mark Kenny piles into Abbott and basically says it’s basically all Tone’s own doing.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/shaken-abbott-has-uphill-battle-to-win-back-voters-trust-20141201-11xxir.html
    Kenny continues by suggesting it won’t be an enjoyable Christmas for Abbott.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/prime-minister-tony-abbott-stems-bleeding-but-faces-tough-prechristmas-period-20141201-11xw1a.html
    Tony Wright with a relatively lightweight contribution to Abbott’s mea culpa.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/abbott-finally-recognises-there-are-aphorismsand-reality-20141201-11xwax.html
    Albo must have really let Abbott have it in a speech in parliament yesterday.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/12/01/albanese-brands-negative-abbott-one-trick-tony-stinging-parliamentary-attack
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/12/01/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-125/
    How far the Abbott government has drifted away from majority opinion.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/how-the-abbott-government-parted-company-with-majority-opinion-20141201-11xizb.html
    Have a good laugh – the Victorian election loss was not Abbott’s fault says our highly respected Peter Reith.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/victorian-coalition-loss-it-wasnt-tony-abbotts-fault-20141201-11xn5p.html
    Peter Martin says that Abbott ill shoot himself in the foot if he rips the $3b back.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/pm-will-rob-the-nation-if-he-rips-off-victoria-20141201-11x9x0.html
    Corporate advisors are telling Abbott to tax the rich not the poor.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/tax-the-rich-not-the-poor-corporate-advisers-tell-tony-abbott-20141201-11xo8q.html

  16. Section 2 . . .

    Michael Pascoe reckons that regulators will go after the soft target SMSFs and their real estate interests.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/beware-smsfs-a-soft-target-for-regulators-20141201-11xjpp.html
    The Circular Quay says goodbye to the extended Obeid family.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/eddie-obeids-relatives-move-out-of-circular-quay-cafe-20141201-11xmey.html
    Some disturbing climate data from our one-eyed, left-leaning BoM.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/summers-arrival-brings-dry-hot-tidings-for-farmers-20141201-11xtkc.html
    Why the game of cricket will never be the same again.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/sport/2014/12/01/game-will-never-phillip-hughes-death/
    The fracturing of society continues in Misssouri.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/st-louis-police-group-demands-punishment-for-rams-players-in-ferguson-protest-20141201-11y0rl.html
    Adele Ferguson reveals how Treasury has cynically watered down FoFA requirements.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/new-battle-looms-as-treasury-waters-down-financial-adviser-register-20141201-11xri4.html
    There is a good chance that the Independent candidate in SA’s Fisher by-election this Saturday might well win.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/polling-gives-independent-candidate-dan-woodyatt-strong-position-in-fisher-by-election/story-fni6uo1m-1227141408678

  17. Section 3 . . .

    Cathy Wilcox takes us into Peta Central.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    Ron Tandberg sees through Abbott’s mea culpa.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    Beautiful work from David Pope.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20141123-1t3j0.html
    Of course David Rowe has a good crack at Abbott’s “confession”.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  21. Abbott is accusing Lambie of blackmail “and that’s not how Parliament works”. 😮

    Lambie is doing nothing differently from Harradine or other independents holding power. It’s just that she’s doing it in public.

  23. and that’s not how Parliament works

    lmao. Coming from someone who abused parliamentary procedures and conventions so badly while in opposition (and, indeed, in government by putting Bishop the Elder in the Speaker’s chair), that’s rich.

  24. [Abbott is accusing Lambie of blackmail “and that’s not how Parliament works”. ]

    I’m so pleased to hear that’s how he feels.

  25. Roy Morgan boasting about SMS polling them at 50:50 the day before;

    He doesnt mention he SMS polling the Greens at 19.5% seven days before the election.

    Those who fail to learn the lessons of the past ….

  26. imacca@8

    Did someone say that Lazarus was granted a pair?


    Being a cross-bencher, who would he pair with??

    Anyone who would have voted the other way, and from a major party I guess, since other crossbenchers would probably not want to give up their votes being recorded.

  29. Hockey opens his bigmouth again.

    [Hockey is ebullient enough however in this encounter to share one burst of frankness. He tells Kelly’s listeners that the Coalition would not have secured its recent free trade agreements if the government hadn’t presided over the demise of local car manufacturing. (He’s quite correct on that point, but I doubt Australian car workers currently in the process of being retrenched will appreciate the fact they have been sacrificed in order for Australia to lock down an FTA with China and Korea.) The treasurer was quite clear this morning that was the transaction – there would have been no free trade agreements if we hadn’t made the hard decisions on industry assistance at the beginning of the year.]

  30. Jackol, the Opposition moved that the Omnibus Repeal bill have precedence over all other government business till determined and that was supported by a majority of the Senate (not including the government). This means the Senate can’t consider the Higher Education reform bill until after the repeal bill is dealt with or a further motion is agreed to to reverse the Senates earlier decision to give it precedence .

    Triton, cross bench senators are from time to time paired by a senator from a major party. What happens is that the senator indicates how they would vote and then someone from the other side will not vote. This is a good system as votes should not fail or pass merely on the basis that someone is sick or otherwise unavailable for a particular vote.

  33. ruawake

    The Coalition always talks as if the FTA are all signed sealed and delivered. It is my understanding that this is an exaggeration. Have any journos/commentators attacked Robb/Barnabby on this?

  35. [The Coalition always talks as if the FTA are all signed sealed and delivered. ]

    Robb may have conceded anything during the negotiation.

  36. [The Coalition always talks as if the FTA are all signed sealed and delivered. It is my understanding that this is an exaggeration. ]

    In the same way they call the GP tax a budget repair measure, when all the revenue raised through it goes to a medical research fund.

    Nobody picks them up on this either.

  39. [Can’t figure out the significance of the name of Peta’s Bordello and what’s in the bin?]

    Guys ‘n Dolls for the Bordello? No idea what is in the bin.

  40. And on the FTAs – they also have to pass the Senate here I believe, and given the current fractious nature of the Senate, which shows no great compunction to wave anything through without some argy-bargy, I don’t see that the FTAs are guaranteed to get through our parliament, let alone what other countries are doing – I haven’t been following it, but wasn’t the South Korean parliament seriously looking like blocking that FTA?

  41. I agree with Andrew Robb – Napthine’s government was doomed long before Abbott took the stage.

    [Now, you go back three years, the polling difference which has occurred at the end was about identical. There’s been a four to six point lead by Labor consistently for three years. And, I found that, when you get a flatline difference that is consistent for a long period of time, usually 12 months, this time we had three years – two years before Tony Abbott even became Prime Minister by the way – when you get that flatline difference, invariably in a campaign it can jump around a bit, but it ends up almost always at that same difference that was there.]

    Of course, the same logic means the Federal Coalition is also gone, even if they change leaders.

    http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/content/2014/s4139052.htm

    …and for those of us with a nasty streak, here’s what happened when Robb realised the implications of his comment —

    [We’ve still got two years to go, Barrie. You can be behind in the polls for a long time. If we… If our position is judged to be affected by the time we get towards an election, that’s when you’d start to worry about that issue..]

    (Good pick up by Barrie, btw).

  42. [Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 12m 12 minutes ago
    It is beyond distasteful the PM trying to claim political success re his handling of downed Malaysian Airline flights. I mean seriously…]

  44. [– there would have been no free trade agreements if we hadn’t made the hard decisions on industry assistance at the beginning of the year..]

    Which is why they lost Shepparton (at a state level).

    Heard Sharman Stone (the federal member) speaking on the ABC about the need for a Cabinet reshuffle yesterday.

    We’ll be hearing a lot more from her in the lead up to the next election – her political survival depends on distancing herself from the government and aligning herself very firmly with the people of her electorate.

  46. [ guytaur
    Posted Tuesday, December 2, 2014 at 7:45 am | Permalink

    Hockey on RN trying to claim the budget is fair ]

    That reset thingy didn’t last long.

  47. Abandoning support for manufacturing might be excusable if the Coalition were encouraging research and alternative energy projects, but they’ve closed down both ends of innovation.

  48. Abbott has been trying to ‘reset’ – scraping barnacles, and then his ‘epic’ presser … but he keeps getting kneecapped by his colleagues.

    No indication that Hockey or Dutton or Pyne or Cormann or Robb are keen to ‘reset’.

  49. GnD = Guy and Dolls as in the movie?

    [Guys and Dolls (1955)

    Plot Summary

    All the hot gamblers are in town, and they’re all depending on Nathan Detroit to set up this week’s incarnation of “The Oldest Established Permanent Floating Crap Game in New York”; the only problem is, he needs $1000 to get the place. Throw in Sarah Brown, who’s short on sinners at the mission she runs.

    …. a gambler is challenged to take a cold female missionary to Havana, but they fall for each other, ]
    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0048140/plotsummary

  50. [Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 16m 16 minutes ago
    I just don’t understand how after a full year in power, with debt ballooning & spending going up the govt can blame Labor for it. Move on…]

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