Newspoll, Fairfax-Ipsos and ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor in Victoria

After all the late-campaign talk of a Labor blowout, the final polls of the campaign all have their two-party lead within the margin of error.

Final polls:

• Newspoll, which had Labor leading 54-46 at the start of the campaign, ends it with 52-48. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (up one), 39% for Labor (down two) and 12% for the Greens (down one). Denis Napthine’s personal ratings are 41% approval (down five from an unusually strong result last time), 45% disapproval (up four), Daniel Andrews’ are 38% approval (up two) and 43% disapproval (down two), and Napthine’s lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 47-34 to 41-37. The poll was conducted from Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1584. According to the Herald-Sun, the poll “showed the Coalition Government has gained ground in just the past few days”. Hopefully we’ll learn more soon about what that means exactly. HT: James J.

• The final Fairfax-Ipsos poll has Labor on 35% (compared with 37% at the start of the campaign and 39% half way through), the Coalition on 42% (39% in both the previous polls) and the Greens on 15% (progressing downwards from 17%, one point at a time). It’s respondent-allocated two-party preferred was at 56-44 in the first two polls and 52-48 in the third, while its previous-election two-party preferred results were respectively at 53-47 and 50-50. Denis Napthine’s personal ratings have been generally stable, and in the latest poll he sits at 49% approval and 40% disapproval. Daniel Andrews’ approval haas tracked up from 37% to 40% to 42%, but his disapproval dropped from 42% to 37% from the first poll to the second before bouncing back up to 43% in the third. Napthine’s two-party lead has gone from 45-36 to 42-39 to 44-42. The poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1236.

• ReachTEL for the Seven Network came in at 53-47 just before the campaign again, and has ended it on 52-48. The primary votes are 38.3% for Labor (up 0.8%), 39.7% for the Coalition (up 1.1%) and 13.5% for the Greens (up 0.2%), the balance coming off “others”. Palmer United was included as a response option in the earlier poll, but not this time. Personal ratings for both party leaders have improved from the first poll to the second. On the question of party expected to win, 62.3% say Labor and 37.7% say Coalition, “don’t know” having not been an option. The sample in the latest poll was 2155 – a big one for a ReachTEL state poll – and it was conducted entirely on Thursday night.

All of which has been entered into the poll tracker featured on the sidebar for one last update, which projects Labor to win a modest majority with 48 seats out of 40 – assuming no seats are lost to the Greens. If Labor were to drop, say, Melbourne and Richmond, that majority would start to look very bare indeed. And of course, the late momentum to the Coalition could well be an ongoing process, causing them to perform better than the present reading indicates (though I would equally suggest they are likely to do less well on preferences than the model assumes, based it is on flows from the 2010 election). So one way or another, it’s going to be an interesting night.

To give you a closer look at the recent convulsions shown in the poll tracker graphs, this shows how things look if we only go back as far as the start of August:

Looking closer:

Bellarine (notional Liberal 2.5%): Over the last days of the campaign, the Herald-Sun has related that strategists on both sides believe Labor to have this one in the bag.

Bentleigh (Liberal 0.9%): Today, the Herald-Sun relates that the Liberals consider themselves the “favourites”, whereas the talk earlier in the week was of a tight race or, as John Ferguson of The Australian had it, that Labor held the lead in the sandbelt.

Buninyong (Labor 1.6%): No one’s even talking about this one anymore. Labor to hold.

Burwood (Liberal 6.3%): Earlier in the week, the Herald-Sun reported that Labor polling conducted earlier in the campaign showed them leading 52-48. As if to emphasise the point, Denis Napthine joined Graham Watt on the last Monday of the campaign to promise a $350,000 expansion of the car park at the Burwood train station. This fed into reporting that the wheels were falling off for the Liberals, but the late polls have surely provided a corrective to such talk.

Carrum (Liberal 0.3%): In the final days of the campaign, the Herald-Sun twice related that whatever else might be going wrong for them elsewhere, Liberal strategists remain “confident” about Carrum. Today, the paper tells us the Liberals consider themselves the favourites.

Cranbourne (Labor 1.1%): This one had dropped off the radar after early optimistic Liberal talk, and James Campbell of the Herald-Sun reported earlier this week that Labor strategists believed they had the seat in the bag. However, today we learn from the Herald-Sun that the Liberals rate themselves a “strong chance”.

Eltham (Labor 0.8%): Today’s Herald-Sun reports that the Liberals believe themselves a “strong chance” here, and I have also heard concerned talk from the Labor camp. Labor may yet rue its move of having its member Steve Herbert move to an upper house seat in Northern Victoria, apparently as part of a move to set up a parliamentary seat for Emma Walters without exposing her troublesome CFMEU connections to the glare of an election campaign.

Forest Hill (Liberal 3.5%): Labor was starting to get its hopes up here earlier this week, but this should be among the seats which are being firewalled by the late move to the Liberals recorded by the polls.

Frankston (Liberal 0.4%): The Herald-Sun reports that the Liberals have this in the “strong chance” category.

Ivanhoe (Labor 1.8%): According to today’s Herald-Sun, the Liberals consider themselves a “strong chance” here, largely thanks to former Labor member Craig Langdon running as an independent and directing his preferences to them.

Monbulk (notional Liberal 1.1%): Despite being made notionally Liberal by the redistribution, deputy Labor leader James Merlino’s seat hasn’t been much discussed, and the Herald-Sun has lately reported from both sides of the fence that Labor has it in the bag.

Mordialloc (Liberal 1.5%): The tenor of reporting through the campaign has been that the Liberals are particularly pessimistic about Mordialloc, while maintaining hopes for nearby Bentleigh and Carrum. In the past few days, the Herald-Sun has reported that Labor is “upbeat” and the Liberals have “all but given up”.

Prahran (Liberal 4.7%): In the final days of the campaign, James Campbell of the Herald-Sun related that the Liberals were beginning to regard the seat as “a worry”, and I early so heard bullish talk from the Labor side of the fence. However, the Liberals may be preserved by the late swing.

Ringwood (Liberal 6.3%): Another seat that Labor was beginning to get vaguely optimistic about, but the evidence of the most recent polling has presumably put an end to that.

Ripon (notional Liberal 1.6%): The Liberals reportedly consider themselves the “favourite” here, as they would need to be. I’ve never heard any suggestion to the contrary at any point of the campaign.

Wendouree (notional Liberal 0.1%): The Herald-Sun has reported from both sides of the fence that Labor is all but home here.

Yan Yean (notional Liberal 0.1%): Ditto the above.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

203 comments on “Newspoll, Fairfax-Ipsos and ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. It’s interesting that the sand belt seat that’s most written off, Mordialloc, is the one with the biggest margin.

    Granted, those margins are subject the vagaries of the redistribution, and the differing contributions of the new sitting members. But if Labor is safely above the 1.5% swing in Mordialloc, then surely they’re strong favourites to achieve the 0.3% swing in next door Carrum, or the 0.9% swing in nearby Bentleigh.

  2. William, I am pretty sure that when four polls, all contacting a different sample, and all asking the same question, get exactly the same result, then the ‘margin of error’ is somewhat smaller around that result than it is for any of the individual polls.

  3. KB – trying to go to sleep I remember which “event bounce” I had modelled – I am pretty sure it was Hawke Government when first Iraq War started in 1991. There were Newspolls and Morgans I think and the bounce peaked in 2 weeks and sank back. Howard in 2001 was very clever – election campaign started 4 weeks after 9/11, on October 5th – just two days before US initial attack on Afghanistan. Insider knowledge perhaps?

  4. dw – I think this is what Kevin Bonham means on his blog – neighbouring electorates are not really independent events in statistical terms. I would think that these seats are likely to show some degree of similarity in their swings.

  5. The issue with the sandbelt seats is that the Liberals have the double sophomore effect across just about the whole electorate in only Bentleigh. Carrum and Mordialloc they only get it in half the electorate because of the redistribution and Frankston has Shaw. All the same it surprises me the parties are sure Mordialloc is gone but the Liberals still think they’re OK in Carrum. You’d have to have a lot of internal polling to be confident of that.

  6. Rocket Rocket – exactly.

    Similarly, if Labor has Yan Yean in the bag, then that bodes well them in for Eltham and Ivanhoe. Mitigating factors in the latter two cases notwithstanding.

  7. I think there has to be a bit of hesitance giving too much credence to “internal sources”. People only give that information with the knowledge that it will be reported.

  8. Just voted at St. Kilda Town Hall. Huge line for the Caulfield district and a tiny one for Albert Park – thankfully, as I live juuuust on the right side of the street for the latter.

    Labor got my preference in the lower house and the Greens in the upper. Can’t make life too easy on them.

  9. I work in Chelsea and used to live in Bonbeach until about a month ago.

    The Liberals were working overtime in the seats from Bentleigh all the way down the line to Frankston.

    Some of the local MPs are not popular at all and recent announcements about Southland station and overdue upgrades to the Frankston line have made voters very cynical.

    Furthermore the shenanigans of certain MPs by involving themselves in local government affairs (e.g. Inga Puelich) have not gone unnoticed either.

    There has been in recent months a flurry of work on work upgrading infrastructure on the Frankston line including the introduction of X*Trapolis trains (about 12 months too early according to insiders) albeit with one return service in the morning.

    The feeling amongst the locals here IMHO is that the Liberals have taken this area for granted and have suddenly woken up from their slumber in the last 6 or so months.

    The Frankston circus re Shaw has largely died down but generally I think the locals are tired and cynical.

    I predict the following

    – Bentleigh to ALP
    – Mordialloc to ALP
    – Carrum to ALP (knife edge)
    – Frankston to ABS (anyone but Shaw)

  10. Roxanna – SkyNews in the last state election released one at 6pm. Here was the detail on pollbludger election night

    6pm. Sky News exit poll tips an easy win to the Coalition, with a two-party lead of 54-46. However, I can never be sure what these figures mean – this looks at the 18 most marginal seats rather than a statewide result. What we need to know is the swing. It should also be known that the pollster, Auspoll, has gotten it wrong before.

    6.02pm. Primary votes of 35 per cent, 45 per cent and 12 per cent, Brumby leads as preferred premier 43-35.

    6.13pm. It seems the Auspoll figures are a straight result from the 18 seats targeted, and that this included the four Labor-versus-Greens contests. The upshot of this is that the swing is 8 per cent, putting the Coalition on track for over 50 seats. Bruce Hawkins on Sky News putting vague hope in pre-polls lodged before the late swing favouring Labor.

  11. One of my voting children said there should be space on the large upper house card so you could write a Festivus-style* “Airing of Grievances” against various groups/parties!

    *Festivus from Seinfeld – and I was amazed that they find Seinfeld funny, thoight it would seem too dated for them!

  12. Yabba88@102

    William, I am pretty sure that when four polls, all contacting a different sample, and all asking the same question, get exactly the same result, then the ‘margin of error’ is somewhat smaller around that result than it is for any of the individual polls.

    Certainly combining poll results gives a lower MOE. A single poll of 1000 people gives a MOE of about 3%. A multiple poll which add up to (say) 4000 halves the MOE to about 1.5%.

    I don’t know if its possible to conclude an even smaller MOE based on all the polls coming up with the same result.

  13. Raaraa@110

    KB

    Was it you who mentioned the Sophomore effect adding 2 PP to the swing? If the polls were 52-48, that means it’s a toss up?

    Sophomore effect applies only in particular seats, not overall. If the statewide 2PP is 52:48 Labor will almost certainly win. What it does do is protect the Liberals against the swing in the seats which they won from Labor last time, meaning that Labor shouldn’t gain quite as many seats as a uniform swing would suggest.

    In this case it’s complex because of the redistribution but the Coalition has a double sophomore effect pretty much all over six seats, and in about half each of another five.

    This is partly countered by the Liberals only getting 45 seats off 51.6% 2PP last time. Without sophomore effects Labor would only need something like 49.5 to have a 50% chance of winning. With them the tossup line moves up to about 50.5 but not 52.

  14. The Liberals must wish they had preselected Geoff Shaw for the Legislative Council, rather than the Legislative Assembly, so than they could have had an early election, on the grounds of a bill or bills blocked in the Council, soon after Napthine took over (when the ALP were still in power at Commonwealth level).

  15. [William, I am pretty sure that when four polls, all contacting a different sample, and all asking the same question, get exactly the same result]

    That’s not really true of Ipsos though (or Morgan for that matter).

  16. Kevin B

    Close Polls plus you and William have we Laborites on ‘stress watch’. Nothing worse than a Labor person on election day even with good polls. Always that last minute loss nightmare on our shoulders 🙂

  17. This is my current hit list for key seats where I have not seen reports on whether the Greens have open or full cards:

    Albert Park
    Cranbourne (I’ve seen a full card reported, but ambiguously)
    Buninyong
    Burwood
    Ivanhoe
    Wendouree
    Ripon

    Thanks to anyone in these seats who hasn’t voted yet + could sneak a peak at the Greens HTV card for me!

  18. News from the Box Hill district: Just back from helping out at an election day sausage sizzle. Fairly constant flow of voters. Two candidates (Lib and Green) doing the meet and greet. Labor could have been there bit I don’t know what she looks like. Overall very quiet and good natured except for earlier in the day when some guy loudly abused two Liberal HTV givers of asian background. I didn’t see it but it was discussed several hours later. At booth 1 where I voted this morning, it was all Libs and a solitary ALP and Green. At Booth 2 (of sausage sizzle) fairly equal spread.

  19. Prediction time

    Headline ALP 44 Liberals 42 Greens 2

    ALP 44 includes 8 gains from the Liberals
    Macedon, Yan Yean, Wendouree, Ballerine. Mordialloc, Frankston, Monbulk, Forest Hill

    Liberals 2 gains from the ALP
    Ripon & Albert Park

    Greens 2 gains from the ALP
    Melbourne & Richmond

    The ALP can reach 53 if they hold Albert Park, Melbourne & Richmond plus gain Prahran, Bentleigh, Carrum, Burwood, Bayswater, Ringwood

    The Liberals can reach 48 if they hold all 45 seats that they currently hold on paper then gain Albert Park, Ivanhoe and Eltham

    On Mordialloc, the last redistribution did something a bit odd, it removed Dingley Village which is very strong Liberal and placed it in the safe ALP seat next door, had Dingley Village remained in Mordialloc I think the Liberals would be in with a strong chance of holding it.

  20. Kevin Bonham@122

    Amazed how quiet it is here for this election today!

    Feels like a close game of football, late in the fourth quarter. One team is a few goals up, but they haven’t won a game for a while… the crowd is quiet and pensive.

  21. Thanks William! Northcote added. Brunswick and Melbourne are also full tickets and I’d bet any money Richmond is too; can’t risk informals in seats they might actually win.

  22. Purely anecdotal FWIW.

    In North Metropolitan, Fiona Patten (Sex Party) is getting primary support that may surprise – mainly from women.

  23. Just crossed off Buninyong and Wendouree (both open tickets) from my hit list. Very heavy concentration of the open tickets in marginals.

    Don’t think Labor have anything to complain about if they’ve been dealing with the DLP.

  24. Never seen a more dead voting location than the one I voted at today (I live in Croydon and voted at Tintern Primary). I suppose with so many people voting early or postal, it’s no great surprise.

  25. re polling day quesswork
    ____________________
    After a lifetime of handing out HTV cards I must say that I reject ALL the quesswork…optimistic and otherwise …when people claim to detact some trends at the booth

    NOTHING in my opinion gives any real indication…most,nearly all voters are courteous and private and few give the slightest indication…even the rude ones show nothing of the trend

    Candidates and helpers love to make predictions…few are anywhere near the real outcone…you might as well tea-leaves

    but it fills in the day of anxious waiting,and is soon forgotten when the voting is over and the REAL figures are seen

  26. as in not people who voted today – but some of the 1 million who already voted. No sample size I think (or methodology).

    need to look on diff computer (paywalled and I’ve run out of free articles)

  27. Kevin Bonham,

    The manner in which the Greens have decided their preference allocation leads me to think that they have decided on a strategy which gives them the best chance of a “holding the balance of power” position in the coming Parliament.

    If they wind up with a similar position in the Upper House, then they could potentially make it difficult to impossible to govern effectively for both Liberal & Labor which ever of the two gets over the line ahead of the other.

    Could turn out to be a much more interesting election than was first imagined with those 52/48 polls.

    And a very good day to everyone who remembers me on this blog!

  28. Yeah I’d support that observation deblonay at #137.

    After a day at the booth I’ve checked the numbers for that booth and have been amazed at how many people supported my HTV card and I never picked the vast majority of them.
    I have never gained an accurate perception of how people have polled at my booth and talking to other booth ‘veterans’ they report the same experience.

  29. Handed out how to vote cards for the first time. Told the Liberals many of whom I know, that Abbott had got me politically active (I was handing out Labor cards).

    It was a country booth so it was all quite pleasant.

  30. How are exit polls done?

    Are they random – just grab people as they come out of the booth area or do they go for the gender/age/etc demographic approach?

    Any info?

  31. No, he’s not banned, he’s probably helping somewhere. I think he’s been doing a lot of letter-boxing.

    The conservative-type trolls have been very subdued, not to say absent, while the Libs are making fools of themselves 😀

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