Newspoll, Fairfax-Ipsos and ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor in Victoria

After all the late-campaign talk of a Labor blowout, the final polls of the campaign all have their two-party lead within the margin of error.

Final polls:

• Newspoll, which had Labor leading 54-46 at the start of the campaign, ends it with 52-48. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (up one), 39% for Labor (down two) and 12% for the Greens (down one). Denis Napthine’s personal ratings are 41% approval (down five from an unusually strong result last time), 45% disapproval (up four), Daniel Andrews’ are 38% approval (up two) and 43% disapproval (down two), and Napthine’s lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 47-34 to 41-37. The poll was conducted from Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1584. According to the Herald-Sun, the poll “showed the Coalition Government has gained ground in just the past few days”. Hopefully we’ll learn more soon about what that means exactly. HT: James J.

• The final Fairfax-Ipsos poll has Labor on 35% (compared with 37% at the start of the campaign and 39% half way through), the Coalition on 42% (39% in both the previous polls) and the Greens on 15% (progressing downwards from 17%, one point at a time). It’s respondent-allocated two-party preferred was at 56-44 in the first two polls and 52-48 in the third, while its previous-election two-party preferred results were respectively at 53-47 and 50-50. Denis Napthine’s personal ratings have been generally stable, and in the latest poll he sits at 49% approval and 40% disapproval. Daniel Andrews’ approval haas tracked up from 37% to 40% to 42%, but his disapproval dropped from 42% to 37% from the first poll to the second before bouncing back up to 43% in the third. Napthine’s two-party lead has gone from 45-36 to 42-39 to 44-42. The poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1236.

• ReachTEL for the Seven Network came in at 53-47 just before the campaign again, and has ended it on 52-48. The primary votes are 38.3% for Labor (up 0.8%), 39.7% for the Coalition (up 1.1%) and 13.5% for the Greens (up 0.2%), the balance coming off “others”. Palmer United was included as a response option in the earlier poll, but not this time. Personal ratings for both party leaders have improved from the first poll to the second. On the question of party expected to win, 62.3% say Labor and 37.7% say Coalition, “don’t know” having not been an option. The sample in the latest poll was 2155 – a big one for a ReachTEL state poll – and it was conducted entirely on Thursday night.

All of which has been entered into the poll tracker featured on the sidebar for one last update, which projects Labor to win a modest majority with 48 seats out of 40 – assuming no seats are lost to the Greens. If Labor were to drop, say, Melbourne and Richmond, that majority would start to look very bare indeed. And of course, the late momentum to the Coalition could well be an ongoing process, causing them to perform better than the present reading indicates (though I would equally suggest they are likely to do less well on preferences than the model assumes, based it is on flows from the 2010 election). So one way or another, it’s going to be an interesting night.

To give you a closer look at the recent convulsions shown in the poll tracker graphs, this shows how things look if we only go back as far as the start of August:

Looking closer:

Bellarine (notional Liberal 2.5%): Over the last days of the campaign, the Herald-Sun has related that strategists on both sides believe Labor to have this one in the bag.

Bentleigh (Liberal 0.9%): Today, the Herald-Sun relates that the Liberals consider themselves the “favourites”, whereas the talk earlier in the week was of a tight race or, as John Ferguson of The Australian had it, that Labor held the lead in the sandbelt.

Buninyong (Labor 1.6%): No one’s even talking about this one anymore. Labor to hold.

Burwood (Liberal 6.3%): Earlier in the week, the Herald-Sun reported that Labor polling conducted earlier in the campaign showed them leading 52-48. As if to emphasise the point, Denis Napthine joined Graham Watt on the last Monday of the campaign to promise a $350,000 expansion of the car park at the Burwood train station. This fed into reporting that the wheels were falling off for the Liberals, but the late polls have surely provided a corrective to such talk.

Carrum (Liberal 0.3%): In the final days of the campaign, the Herald-Sun twice related that whatever else might be going wrong for them elsewhere, Liberal strategists remain “confident” about Carrum. Today, the paper tells us the Liberals consider themselves the favourites.

Cranbourne (Labor 1.1%): This one had dropped off the radar after early optimistic Liberal talk, and James Campbell of the Herald-Sun reported earlier this week that Labor strategists believed they had the seat in the bag. However, today we learn from the Herald-Sun that the Liberals rate themselves a “strong chance”.

Eltham (Labor 0.8%): Today’s Herald-Sun reports that the Liberals believe themselves a “strong chance” here, and I have also heard concerned talk from the Labor camp. Labor may yet rue its move of having its member Steve Herbert move to an upper house seat in Northern Victoria, apparently as part of a move to set up a parliamentary seat for Emma Walters without exposing her troublesome CFMEU connections to the glare of an election campaign.

Forest Hill (Liberal 3.5%): Labor was starting to get its hopes up here earlier this week, but this should be among the seats which are being firewalled by the late move to the Liberals recorded by the polls.

Frankston (Liberal 0.4%): The Herald-Sun reports that the Liberals have this in the “strong chance” category.

Ivanhoe (Labor 1.8%): According to today’s Herald-Sun, the Liberals consider themselves a “strong chance” here, largely thanks to former Labor member Craig Langdon running as an independent and directing his preferences to them.

Monbulk (notional Liberal 1.1%): Despite being made notionally Liberal by the redistribution, deputy Labor leader James Merlino’s seat hasn’t been much discussed, and the Herald-Sun has lately reported from both sides of the fence that Labor has it in the bag.

Mordialloc (Liberal 1.5%): The tenor of reporting through the campaign has been that the Liberals are particularly pessimistic about Mordialloc, while maintaining hopes for nearby Bentleigh and Carrum. In the past few days, the Herald-Sun has reported that Labor is “upbeat” and the Liberals have “all but given up”.

Prahran (Liberal 4.7%): In the final days of the campaign, James Campbell of the Herald-Sun related that the Liberals were beginning to regard the seat as “a worry”, and I early so heard bullish talk from the Labor side of the fence. However, the Liberals may be preserved by the late swing.

Ringwood (Liberal 6.3%): Another seat that Labor was beginning to get vaguely optimistic about, but the evidence of the most recent polling has presumably put an end to that.

Ripon (notional Liberal 1.6%): The Liberals reportedly consider themselves the “favourite” here, as they would need to be. I’ve never heard any suggestion to the contrary at any point of the campaign.

Wendouree (notional Liberal 0.1%): The Herald-Sun has reported from both sides of the fence that Labor is all but home here.

Yan Yean (notional Liberal 0.1%): Ditto the above.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

203 comments on “Newspoll, Fairfax-Ipsos and ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. I went for a walk this evening and passed an Anglican school that had dozens of pro-Labor posters attached along its fence, and a lone woman was taking them down.

  2. In Upper House
    _______
    Vic Labor may have created their own problems
    ___________
    If the Upper House has a dogs breakfast of looney micro-parties and blocks the ALP Govt…it is a siuation of Labor’s ‘s own making

    The Libs have scared Labor from making a Alliance with the Greens,and sharing 2nd prefs everywhere
    This saw Fielding elected in 2004.and may see similar micros elected tomorrow
    Labor has been frightened by the Libs who damm the Greens as dangerous radicals…who now seem to have aboput 30% 0f the progressive vote and won’t go away any time soon
    Logically they are the ONLY real allies have,but a timid Labor leadership has let the Libs very clevely make the running…and Labor has contributed to their own dis-advantage which may see looney righwingers,DLPers and othert elected tomorrow,when the best for Labor is a Green member elected who will support all progressive legislation
    see great article on this problem

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/13/even-if-labor-wins-the-victorian-election-it-will-b

  3. F 52 – thanks for that. So my worry, I think on the other thread, that that exit poll with Labor 52-48 could be overrepresented with Labor voters seems unlikely.

    NZ and Pakistan honoured Phil Hughes at start of their postponed 2nd day. NZ players have all texta-ed the initial P.H. Under their silver fern symbol on their shirts. They rolled Pak’s last 7 wickets and are now scoring at 5-6 per over.

  4. [F 52 – thanks for that. So my worry, I think on the other thread, that that exit poll with Labor 52-48 could be overrepresented with Labor voters seems unlikely. ]

    Could mean a monster 6.5% swing.

  5. Newspoll also 48 LNP 52 ALP, according to the tweeted front page of the Herald Sun tomorrow.

    Four polls. Very consistent. Are they ever that consistent?

  6. [Newspoll also 48 LNP 52 ALP, according to the tweeted front page of the Herald Sun tomorrow.]

    I’m slightly confused by this:

    [As Premier Denis Napthine and Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews prepared to storm through marginal seats in a final push for votes, a new poll gave Labor a 52-48 per cent lead.

    But the Newspoll, in today’s Australian newspaper, showed the Coalition Government has gained ground in just the past two days.]

    It sounds like the first para is referring to a different poll (the Ipsos one?) to the second. And since when does Newspoll record changes over a period of two days?

    Anyway:

    [The Coalition believes it is favourite in 42, including the marginal seats of Carrum, Ripon and Bentleigh, and feels it’s a strong chance in Frankston, Ivanhoe, Eltham and Cranbourne. It has all but given up on Mordialloc, Bellarine, Wendouree, Yan Yean and Monbulk.

    Labor is confident of 46-48 seats, in line with statewide polling, but acknowledges it will be tight.]

  7. William I would take the view that if the libs are talking about taking seats off Labor outside of the very marginal despite an overall swing to Labor they are a bit fanciful. Yes there will be some seats that go against the trend but overall the swing, if its on, will give Labor the seats they need. Some seats may well go despite the swing to Labor, Ripon comes to mind, but despite some local factors, I can’t see for example Eltham and Ivanhoe switching.

  8. I’m too scared to make predictions.

    I will be extremely happy if the Coalition win at most 43 seats.

    In the Upper House if Labor are in Government it would be very nice to have several paths to majority for any bill.

  9. Newspoll

    52-48 2pp to ALP

    Coalition 40, Labor 39, Greens 12

    Napthine: Satisfied 41, Dissatisfied 45
    Andrews: Satisfied 38, Dissatisfied 43
    Better Premier: Napthine 41, Andrews 37

    Nov 24-27, 1584 sample

  10. KB – I was thinking about the possibility that the other tragic story has “frozen” the vote at 52-48 and essentially ended the campaign. Even Herald-Sun covers 3 days in a row.

    In 2001 with 9/11, Tampa and the invasion of Afghanistan I thought Labor were going to lose many seats, but there ended up being a net loss of only 2. I wondered at the time whether other events were too distracting in the end for most people who are pretty disengaged with the political scene.

  11. A friend in Burwood I spoke to today has been robocalled by Denis Napthine. if the Libs are putting resources into Burwood, they must be worried.

    Rocket Rocket,

    I am glad to see someone else agrees with the Victorian ALP that the Greens are not Labor’s friends and that Labor needs another path to legislation, a view shared by several left MPS too. I have my fingers crossed for a Legislative Council of 19 ALP, 2 others (new DLP, Country Alliance, Animal Justice, etc), 3 Greens and 16 Coalition.

  12. I live in relatively safe ALP seat and was robocalled by Napthine this afternoon. So it seems they’re just throwing the proceeds of their $10 million developer-funded war chest around randomly.

  13. cc – I am a bit of a pantheist really, and I am happy to see good policies go through Parliaments of any color by any means.

    Talking of colors though I still half wish that Tasmania’s Governor had elected to go with a Liberal/Greens sort of Government in 2010 just so “Blue-Green Algae” could enter the political lexicon. Because even in the UK it’s Blue/Yellow (Tories/LDP) on their rosettes (very big in UK – did say hello to lib candidate sporting one in 2010 state election while walking to polling booth)

  14. CC @ 69

    I was robo called by Naptime at about 6:30 tonight in Macedon. Not sure what that means… Was also robo called by “Katie, an ambo” earlier in the day telling me to vote for Dan.

  15. Rocket Rocket@68

    KB – I was thinking about the possibility that the other tragic story has “frozen” the vote at 52-48 and essentially ended the campaign. Even Herald-Sun covers 3 days in a row.

    In 2001 with 9/11, Tampa and the invasion of Afghanistan I thought Labor were going to lose many seats, but there ended up being a net loss of only 2. I wondered at the time whether other events were too distracting in the end for most people who are pretty disengaged with the political scene.

    What actually happened with all that stuff in 2001 is Howard got an absolutely immense bounce that Labor managed to rope in only during the campaign. Bounces tend to go away during campaigns.

    I have wondered if the very sad cricket news was having any impact on the campaign but usually by this stage voting intention moves are small anyway.

  16. I have a nonlisted number – maybe that protects us from robocalls. I do remember them in the past, but it was either in the NT or at some stage when we were listed. They are super annoying. I much prefer spam emails – the UN sent me one saying that the UN had decided that anyone who had been internet scammed would receive $500,000 from the UN – etc etc. Amazing really – think how all that money could be better spent on Ebola and such.

  17. Rocket Rocket@71

    cc – I am a bit of a pantheist really, and I am happy to see good policies go through Parliaments of any color by any means.

    Talking of colors though I still half wish that Tasmania’s Governor had elected to go with a Liberal/Greens sort of Government in 2010 just so “Blue-Green Algae” could enter the political lexicon. Because even in the UK it’s Blue/Yellow (Tories/LDP) on their rosettes (very big in UK – did say hello to lib candidate sporting one in 2010 state election while walking to polling booth)

    Governor had no option to do so as there was no evidence Greens would support such a government. We did have one in 1996-8 with Christine Milne holding the gun to Tony Rundle’s head with implied no-confidence threats until he couldn’t take it any more and agreed with Labor to change the size of parliament. Remarkably cutthroat parliament with a lot of real democracy on the floor.

  18. 74 – I remember drawing graphs of that and trying to work out a semi-equivalent “event” before an election. 1975 was a sort of fit but it was a political internal event – Labor had some short-lived bounce. There was another one – maybe it was 1983 and the bushfires – and there was a similar 4-week bounce though not as dramatic.

  19. I had a labor robocall on my mobile today. I have had them on the landline before but never mobile.

    I would imagine a robocall actually very cheap. The cost of the production, database and call cost only.

  20. William – the Liberals in the Herald-Sun therefore think that they will win 45 seats on those statements. Alizarin’s 40 seems a bit more likely.

    76 – yes forgot that period – a short-lived bloom of (reluctant) Blue-Green Algae. And then ALP/Libs made the quotas 16.6% instead of 12.5% – possibly regretting that now!

  21. William – just looking again at poll-eve in 2010 – there were much more ominous signs for Labor then.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/11/26/nielsen-52-48-to-coalition-in-victoria/

    Looking at election night I forgot Sky News came out with exit poll at 6pm with Libs 54/46 in 18 marginal seats. Then Antony Green’s first big pronouncement was 6.59pm that swing against Labor of 7% in country, 6% in city. Final actual swing was about 6%, which Antony had by 7.17pm.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/11/27/victorian-election-live-2/

    Will be interesting comparing SkyNews exit poll and other timelines tomorrow.

  22. Hmm, based on the totality of the Liberals’ “strong chance” listings they are probably not feeling totally out of it in Thomastown either.

    I’m doing final tweaks to my model expected for re-release within next 2 hours. It’s looking like it’s going to finish up in the high 51s with about 47 ALP seats. The key here is that the of the late polls that are 52:48s all are actually better than that based on the primaries (pollster 2PP calculations for Vic are a dog’s breakfast so I’m ignoring them all) while the two close polls are downweighted because of inability to benchmark them against past elections, and in the case of Morgan, erratic properties.

    I was flirting with including an “expected preferences” score close to a point higher than my aggregate 2PP but the final model will not do this.

  23. Sounds like the only seats agreed as changing hands by the parties (ignoring notionals) are Mordialloc and Ripon, one in either direction.

  24. Yes as last time LNP 44.8, ALP 36.2, Grn 11.2 made LNO 51.6/48.4 – it would seem with LNP around 40-42 and ALP+Grn > 50 is at least going to be 52/48.

    Big day tomorrow – might try and watch start of my old cricket club’s match between work and voting and family etc.

    Thank Kevin – will check out your modelling in early am.

    One Day More.

  25. If Labor wins it is going to be a kick in the face for the Herald/Sun. Perhaps Labor no longer has to worry about Murdoch. News manipulation, editorials and photo/shop no longer wins an election.

  26. It would seem Kevin Bonham has a sense of humor; after giving us all but one option as a possible outcome he states:
    [ Anything else would be a serious surprise.]

  27. [
    Rocket Rocket
    Posted Saturday, November 29, 2014 at 12:56 am | Permalink

    After the 2010 election I would not have believed Labor could win after one term in opposition.
    ]
    If you want to find a bunch of people that do not beleive they will win, go to a Labor function.

  28. This is several elections in a row now ehere the final polls have been remarkably consistent.it looks like no landslide but still adieu premier Denis Napthine.

    I think the way the EW link saga has been handled has been terrible, but Napthine himself does not seem sociopathic the way our PM does. Will Tony Abbott and his miserly men share some of the blame?

  29. Should be a small labor win but there does seem to be an air of uncertainty about it all. Wonder what the Holding thinks about it all ? Should he have hung around ?

  30. frednk@91

    It would seem Kevin Bonham has a sense of humor; after giving us all but one option as a possible outcome he states:

    Anything else would be a serious surprise.

    Actually there are two options not given. The first is that the Coalition wins comfortably and naturally after winning the 2PP. The second is a landslide win to Labor.

  31. William’s seat-by-seat guide suggests there’s a slither of hope for the Libs there. If the Libs win Ripon (whilst losing the other ‘notionals’), hold Bentleigh, Carrum & Frankston (whilst losing Mordialloc) and take Eltham & Ivanhoe off Labor they get to… 45 seats.

    But that’s a very narrow path to victory.

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