The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a slight move back to the Coalition this week, which is more to do with the reduced impact of last week’s Newspoll outlier than this week’s ReachTEL and Essential Research results, both of which landed right on trend. The Coalition is up 0.7% on the primary vote, 0.4% on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection, that being in Tasmania, where the Liberals scored strongly in the unpublished ReachTEL breakdown. No new figures for the leadership ratings this week.
td 2250 I’ll fall off my chair if SA Labor get up in Fisher
Only possible if Abbott spends the whole week in the electorate – has he been invited ?
Slav G
http://www.nbnco.com.au/connect-home-or-business/check-your-address.html
Andrew Elder is no fan of Textor.,
From his most recent post:
“I worked for the NSW Liberals in the 1999 election campaign and watched Mark Textor smooth the dying pillow over their even-money effort to knock Carr over. Carr won in a landslide. I left the Liberal Party soon after that but remain a Textor sceptic – which puts me at odds with the entire press gallery and other members of the political class, but hey.”
teh_drewski@2250
If that’s the case, then he really is buggered
Yesiree Bob@2254
Credlin’s cretin would be really stuffed without her.
Someone has to put their hand up his arse and move his lips. 😐
Two things on Ch 7 news tonight:
Service personnel may not be making comments on the government’s pay and conditions plan but their spouses/partners certainly are.
Baird in NSW is looking greedily at getting the $3 billion that Abbott wants to take from Victoria. He plans more road tunnels.
Fredex 2245
I agree; my prediction is also 53-47, but as I stated in an earlier post, only because of possible state election muddying of the waters in Victoria, which may give the Liberals there a bit of a one off boost. Hope I’m wrong; would be nice to see another 55-45 or better just to keep the momentum against this Government roling along in to the end of Parliament.
[And I wonder if perhaps Abbott would be doing even worse if he didn’t have Credlin.]
She’s done a fantastic job with the material she had to work with.
rossmcg:
Well, Elder can add Mumble to his side of the ledger.
[Peter Brent @mumbletwits · 2h 2 hours ago
My dear @AGFchairman, you only seem to publicly associate yourself with the winning campaigns, what’s the deal with that?
#mycomedyroutine]
Plus tweets from before the actual polling day.
One university has lambasted Universities Australia for endorsing the Abbott government’s deregulation proposal:
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/dec/01/canberra-university-warns-senate-against-on-the-electorate-over-fee-deregulation
It also sounds like Lambie is very very opposed to the uni dereg bill. Good on her.
Thanks BK
Heard Lamby in an interview today state she supports free university education. Given that, I would say there’s absolutely no chance of her voting for deregulation of university fees.
Universities Australia is derided by most of the institutions who aren’t the Group of 8, they just don’t really have any clout. Better a seat at the table than being ignored I guess.
The universities outside the Group of Eight ought to just tell the sandstones to get effed and form their own group.
[The Government will have to borrow as much as £75bn more than it intended over the next five years, delivering a damaging blow to Chancellor George Osborne’s hopes of claiming that the Government has the country’s deficit under control.]
Crashing and burning. Hockey following.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/autumn-statement-bleak-borrowing-prediction-rocks-george-osbornes-deficit-hopes-9894401.html
[c 2213 Apparently Mark Textor is on Lateline tonight.
Isn’t he that famous Liberal strategist who can win any election? Wonder why they didn’t use him in Victoria?]
Textor’s main claim to fame is creating a diplomatic incident by comparing Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalagawa to a “Pilipino porn-star”.
I believe we have seen a confluence of events that have created a hole in the narrative Abbott has been running culminating this week. As it was always going to. The Victorian election has just brought it into sharp focus.
As Waleed Aly said on QandA if we are still talking budget in February they are gone.
There is no way the GP tax is going to be passed this week. Therefore come February we will still be talking about budget 2014.
This was before external factors like falling commodity prices are brought into account. I truly believe they are stuffed now and its a zombie government walking.
I picked 53:47 because that is BludgerTrack numbers and I reckon that’s where we are at.
If the Newspoll was taken over the weekend it should be above 53 for the ALP – this was the worst week for the COALition meme – but I think Newspoll will correct itself back to BT territory.
And Dennis will, accordingly, chortle, probably even claim that it is evidence that Victoria was not Tony’s fault even tho’ such would be entirely misplaced.
Anyway we’ll see.
Unless they chicken out.
Lima Climate Change conference starts in a few hours. Ttwo week duration. Abbott will come under pressure leading up to Christmas.
guytaur@2267
I hope you are right with all that.
Parliament finishes for this year this week, so it looks highly likely they will still be talking about Budget 2014 in February.
guytaur @ 2267 – very well put. FWIW I think this government is already well and truly baked.
This government might be stuffed but they can still do a lot of damage. If the university fees deregulation gets through for instance.
mikehilliard – I honestly don’t think the government is going to be able to get the uni changes through. The Senate seems for most part unreceptive. Xenophon has ruled out voting for it this week, Lambie is dead against it. The PUPs seem to be against it but are untrustworthy so we’ll have to wait on them. Madigan is reluctant to vote for the changes while Lambie is apparently lobbying Muir.
mikehilliard
[ This government might be stuffed but they can still do a lot of damage … ]
You can count on it. We ain’t seen nothin’ yet!
This is where it’s starts getting scary, the government cutting deals, any deal just to look like it’s doing what it patently can’t, govern.
[One of them, South Australian independent Nick Xenophon, says the government is desperate to get a win, any sort of win, in the senate before the year ends.]
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2014/12/01/tony-abbott-transforms-job-just-got-harder/.VHxH2DXS2KA.twitter
JimmyD
I hope you’re right.
Just looking at the Senate Dynamic Red for tonight, The Libs have completely lost control of the Senate.
The Government’s attempt to rearrange the government’s own agenda, was defeated 33-31 with a nonsensical Omnibus Repeal Bill given priority and bumping the rest.
To add to the humiliation, the Senate appended this hand-written amendment from Senator Conroy
http://www.aph.gov.au/~/media/02%20Parliamentary%20Business/22%20Chamber%20Documents/Dynamic%20Red/1%20december_second%20reading%20amdt%20to%20omnibus%20bill
Full proceedings after the dinner break here http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Chamber_documents/Dynamic_Red
Re Ms Credlin: If she’s as much of a control freak and micro-manager as is generally reported, there’s no hope. I’ve seen a lot of them in my time, and they are harder to cure than alcoholics.
[2276
mikehilliard
I hope you’re right.]
As a uni student, I bloody hope so too.
ummmm arhhh ummm, well, ummm any leaks from the arhhh polls yet?
It’s odd… we should have something by now shouldn’t we?
mikehilliard – according to the Australian, Muir is not going to vote for the uni deregulation.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/education/coalition-closer-to-compromise-on-university-reforms/story-fn59nlz9-1227140243181
Do you all remember when the Gillard Guv’mint didn’t put up ONE OR TWO PIECES of legislation because they didn’t have the numbers to get it through.
There was hell to play in the media.
Just saying.
[2232
jeffemu
Plan B looks like going to shit now too.]
There was a Plan B?
I’m not even sure there was much of a Plan A, beyond conning an election win, followed by a blatant smash-and-grab raid on the coffers, our rights, and our future.
And they couldn’t even carry out that basic heist without cocking it up.
As professional politicians, they make bumbling amateur pickpockets, albeit very determined ones.
Apparently Textor on Lateline said to avoid one term Government has to stop talking about the last Labor Government.
😆
JimmyDoyle
Oz article is paywalled but I’m glad to hear Muir won’t back the government. I was lucky enough to benefit from free university education but now having one child starting next year & another two following I’m becoming increasingly concerned. I would never have supported the deregution anyhow as I’m happy to pay taxes in support of future education even if I didn’t have children benefiting from a cheaper system.
Here it is
“@vanOnselenP: Newspoll very interesting indeed…”
Must be public soon
Perhaps if the Lying Tone is looking to reset he might consider a new style hairdo.
He should try the down low across the fringe then whip it back in a circular motion combover.
More hair to the fore.
Be like getting back on the front foot.
No WOW factor in the Newspoll
jeffemu – you reckon 55-45?
[2280
mikehilliard
Oz article is paywalled]
If you want to read the article, try putting the article heading in Google News.
Not sure Jimmy. I hope so.
[I’ll fall off my chair if SA Labor get up in Fisher.]
Well, as I explained last night, Labor are unlikely to win (it was 57-43 Lib 2PP at the election and by-elections usually swing away from the party in government).
However, there is an independent running, who has the endorsement of the widow of Bob Such, the late MP of the seat. If the Libs can be brought down to low 40s (at highest) on primaries and he comes second, he has a good chance at winning – similar to Frome in 2009.
It’s actually in the Liberal Party’s interest for Labor to have a good showing (assuming they don’t get a solid primary vote)
JimmyD
Yeah, know the google trick, might try it later on the PC as my iPhone skills are hopeless & that’s what I’m using at the mo.
Checking into to see …. wtf is newspoll?
Work to Rule @ 2295
Checking into to see …. wtf is newspoll?
It is not here yet Comrade and I am blaming Abbott.
Frantic polishing at NewsLtd
BC at 2234:
[ If I remember correctly, Richard Court’s government originally intended to have the Mandurah line come up the freeway to Murdoch (South St) and then head east to the Armadale line. ]
A bit further south than that. The original plan was via the Armadale line to Kenwick, then SW through Thornlie and Canning Vale next to the freight line, joining the freeway near Jandakot airport. The tunnel at Jandakot actually got built, and has been gathering dust ever since, and the other end got half-built as the Thornlie spur. One day (the other side of 2017), a future Labor govt will finish that off. It’s a silly route for a main line to Mandurah, but the Huntingdale / Canning Vale / Southern River area has been booming over the last decade. They could use a train line.
The other problem with Court’s Mandurah-via-Kenwick plan was the number of level crossings on the Armadale line.The new two lines have been designed with none (all 115 km from Butler to Mandurah), but the Armadale line is a over a century old and has quite a few, some on quite major roads – it would’ve broken traffic in the SE suburbs unless they were converted to bridges. Oats St in particular would’ve been a nightmare… there’s a major bus interchange station right next to the crossing, which would have to be demolished and moved if that ever gets converted. (Kinda like Springvale Rd in Nunawading.)
On radio Abbott approval has dropped 5 points to 33 in Newspoll
jeffemu@2296
There is a problem when the conservatives are tasked with documenting their own decline.