BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

The latest weekly reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate offers the Coalition a slight case of dead cat bounce.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a slight move back to the Coalition this week, which is more to do with the reduced impact of last week’s Newspoll outlier than this week’s ReachTEL and Essential Research results, both of which landed right on trend. The Coalition is up 0.7% on the primary vote, 0.4% on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection, that being in Tasmania, where the Liberals scored strongly in the unpublished ReachTEL breakdown. No new figures for the leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,353 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

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  1. DisplayName:

    Ultimately, all that matters is whether it should have been declared or not – and this is precisely because it is always going to be very difficult to conclusively prove for what reason a gift was given. That’s why there are disclosure rules in the first place.

  2. I think that should be “technically” rather than “ultimately”.

    If so, then I agree.

    However, would the people who are currently unsatisfied with events be satisfied if he had declared it. All that would improve is that some of us could now argue that he followed the rules.

  4. It’s been a dismal week for the LNP…Jonhston up s%^t creek in a canoe…$7 co-payment scrapped…egregious cuts at the ABC and CSIRO…threats by Abbott to Victorians…Bill performing well at the Press Club…Reps a shambles…legislative defeats in the Senate…

    Surely the next round of polls will move Labor’s way…

  6. Surely the libs would be most worried about the steadiness of the polling over the last year. The lack of volatility is a bad, bad sign

  7. There would be some Libs worried, but I suspect it’d be less than you might think. As with the Qld Govt (my State), there is a level of arrogance that often masks reality getting through to them. We see it in our Local Govt (Mackay) as well. It is frustrating when you come up against it. To be fair, Can-Do has recognised it and implemented a spin campaign in Qld, which is (sadly) working. I suspect the Federal Libs will do something similar at some stage.

  10. Not because he gives a stuff about Victoria, or thinks he’s not perfect in every way, but because backbench pressure may start to bite.

  11. Lizzie

    I think the timing of the U turn this week on co-payments BEFORE the Victorian election shows that the coalition is already conscious of their own polls, Senate numbers, and looming defeat south of the border. I think it is too late for Napthine though. None of the polls have indicated a large number of undecided voters.

    The threat to pull $3 billion in road funding if the new Labor Vic government cancels the EW link road shows the real Tony Abbott. It also shows any U turn is tactical only. His own ideology has not changed. He is still willing to bully people to impose his will. Above all, Abbott remains what he always was – a bully.

  13. I think the u-turn has already started, lizzie, albeit in a clumsy sort of fashion (as you might expect). I don’t agree with Socrates comment re David Johnston – I think they are in the softening up phase of the execution (the typical political no, no, no, no, yes). He won’t be the only one either. Socrates – I wouldn’t trust him to paddle a canoe – a Scout Troop would be off the scale for him.

  14. Socrates

    I do not like it (although the tactics are inevitable) that Tony’s newest cry is that his policies aren’t being passed because of the belligerent negativity of Labor. It’s obvious projection and saves him from admitting that the Budget is unfair.

  15. lizzie, I think the point is that he does not think the Budget is unfair. You can tell him until you are blue in the face – he won’t get it. It is all somebody else’s fault. As Socrates said – Blessed are the sociopaths.

  16. nappin

    I know. But do we have to believe that all his cabinet are so blind that they can’t see it? Or has the power of being in charge gone to their heads?

  18. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Laura Tingle PM’s credibility comes under assault. It’s one of those “turning point” articles.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/pm_credibility_comes_under_assault_kPASbaXhEXzQSaBBC11c5O
    Abbott’s own behaviour is one of the barnacles says Michelle Grattan.
    https://theconversation.com/getting-the-government-shipshape-will-take-a-lot-more-than-throwing-the-co-payment-overboard-34721
    Peter FitzSimons puts the Phillip Hughes tragedy into perspective.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/phillip-hughes-injury-brings-perspective-to-the-illusions-of-sport-20141126-11ukr8.html
    Blink! And there goes a barnacle! And it probably won’t be the last says Mark Kenny.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/federal-government-to-shelve-7-gp-copayment-policy-20141126-11ul0w.html
    One of our very favourite people, Gerard Henderson, is under the microscope here. Nice!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/accounts-of-sydney-institute-offer-bonus-glimpse-into-life-of-gerard-henderson-20141126-11ufad.html
    Will Johnston find a way to mess this up? That is, if he gets the chance.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/call-for-royal-commission-into-defence-abuse-20141126-11uniy.html
    Anything that has scientific rigour involved is in for the chop with Abbott and his mob.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/abbott-government-plans-to-scrap-the-national-water-commission-as-drought-looms-20141126-11u0cy.html
    “Man overboard!”, says Mark Kenny as he looks at David Johnston.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/defence-minister-david-johnston-looks-like-a-political-case-of-man-overboard-20141126-11uj5v.html
    Leyonjhelm has upset the crazies in the Liberal Party with his marriage equality bill. What a pity.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/samesex-free-vote-would-lead-to-chaos-liberal-mps-20141126-11udoc.html
    It may not be over for Rupert Murdoch with the phone tapping issue in the UK.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/the-trials-of-rupert-murdoch,7127

  19. Section 2 . . .

    Gay Alcorn says an election loss in Victoria would be a slap in the face for Abbott.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/26/a-victorian-election-loss-would-be-humiliating-for-napthine-and-a-slap-in-the-face-for-abbott
    Hockey’s budget is shredded – and there hasn’t even been a GFC.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-budget-to-blow-out-by-billions-more-than-expected-20141126-11un79.html
    Morrison and mini-me Michaelia spend a motza on media monitoring. Vanity or fear?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/immigration-minister-scott-morrison-defends-media-monitoring-spend-20141126-11ue6p.html
    Is Morrison facing an ignominious “barnacling” with this issue?
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/nov/27/scott-morrison-may-be-forced-to-give-31000-asylum-seekers-chance-of-settlement
    The Guardian reports on Shorten’s NPC appearance yesterday.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/26/tony-abbott-backward-looking-failure-adrift-bill-shorten
    The directors of Woolworths are steeling themselves for a fiery AGM.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/woolworths-faces-showdown-over-drop-in-share-price-20141126-11ue5r.html
    Will Mick Gatto “send somebody over” to the ATO to “discuss” this?
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/mick-gatto-defies-taxman-over-outstanding-10-million-bill-20141126-11ti1f.html
    View from the Street.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-abbott-to-knock-barnacles-off-me-hearties-20141126-11ujsx.html

  20. Section 3 . . .

    ABSOLUTELY MUST SEE! David Pope goes troppo on the canoe. There’s a lot in this one.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20141123-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg examines Johnston’s “apology”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    Another MUST see from David Rowe.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  21. Laura Tingle leading the Press Gallery in unloading on the embattled Abbott

    [Something has snapped in federal politics this week as the distractions of foreign policy ventures fade and the final week of parliamentary sittings looms with no end to the budget impasse in sight.

    Prime Minister Tony Abbott finds himself defending the indefensible, or the already mortally-wounded, on three different fronts.

    First, the government’s budget strategy is dead, a seriously ex-parrot, and we are left just going through the excruciating process of seeing how it is brought to account in next month’s mid-year budget review.

    Yet the government persists – for now – with the fiction that it will all come good in the end.]

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/pm_credibility_comes_under_assault_kPASbaXhEXzQSaBBC11c5O

  25. So nice to see karma slapping Abbott in the face.

    [A major barnacle on the government is Abbott’s breach of trust, and his compounding that sin by being unwilling to be upfront about his broken promises.

    He is now carrying the same burden that Gillard did. His Labor opponents throw around the description “liar” with impunity.

    This is damage that cannot be easily removed and perhaps can never be repaired. It’s eaten into the ship’s frame.]

    https://theconversation.com/getting-the-government-shipshape-will-take-a-lot-more-than-throwing-the-co-payment-overboard-34721

  26. “@ccroucher9: Just in case the odds weren’t already against Dennis Napthine – @sportsbetcomau has paid out all bets on a Labor victory already”

  29. lizzie

    We are at the half way mark of this govt. Really do hope they are one termers to minimize the damage being done to this country

  30. Goodness those Seppos start young.

    [Four-year-old boy accidentally shoots three-year-old neighbour in the mouth ]
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/fouryearold-boy-accidentally-shoots-threeyearold-neighbour-in-the-mouth-9878447.html?origin=internalSearch

    [Three-year-old boy accidentally shoots dead his mother in Tulsa, Oklahoma,]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/threeyearold-boy-accidentally-shoots-dead-his-mother-as-she-changes-her-younger-daughters-nappy-9884682.html

  31. The LNP still do not get universal medical care. Trashing it is not economic reform. Its economic destruction.

    A simple look at medical costs in the US vs countries around the world that have universal care shows it and you do not need to be a nobel economics professor to see it.

    ======================
    Dutton on 24 now

  32. [Gay Alcorn says an election loss in Victoria would be a slap in the face for Abbott.]

    Without doubt Abbott is bad for ‘brand Liberal’ in Victoria but given that the Vic government has been so shambolic over the last couple of years it’s not like there’s a shortage of local factors to blame.

  34. “@Simon_Cullen: Health Minister Peter Dutton is not ruling out using regulations for a “price signal” on doctor visits. It’s one of the “options”.”

  38. lizzie
    The medical research fund feels like a hamfisted attempt to balance/tie in bad stuff with good stuff. If you’re against the GP co-payment, you’re against medical research, or something like that. It’s not about the science, it’s (a poor attempt at) political risk management.

  39. victoria

    [ What gives?]
    Another Abbott brainfart sprung on his colleagues ? Although I’d love for it to be signs of an internal power struggle.

  43. From Laura Tingle’s article:

    [Second, the prime minister’s credibility has been shattered …]

    OK I would say she is probably the best mainstream political journo around at the moment.

    But … why say that line above?

    Realistically Abbott has had no credibility for years, his evasions and outright lies over several years have well and truly illustrated that his credibility was shattered a long time ago.
    And yet Tingle writes as if it is a recent event attributable to recent events and thus ‘disappears’ and writes out of the history all his previous lies.

    It is because journalists did not call him on all his previous lies that the public perception that he had any credibility at all has lasted so long.
    Perhaps this recent epiphany by journos, reluctant and minimal in general, may seem as a ‘breakthrough’ to them but in reality they should have exposed his imperial nakedness yonks ago.

  44. If Frances Abbott had appled for and won a scholarship to an exclusive college, Tony Abbott would have been very much the proud father. The college would also have wanted to garner some favorable publicity out of the award. There would have been no issue of disclosure on the Parliamentary register as there would have been no question that this was a genuine scholarship.

    Instead, however, the award was kept secret because it was a gift to a mate. Tony Abbott didn’t include it on his register of interests because he knew how it would look. Another poster here indicated that Ms Abbott was asked not to talk about the ‘scholarship’. While I can’t verify whether the latter is true, it is hardly consistent with the idea of an award of a prize based on merit.

  45. This in the Oz

    [One senior Liberal source told The Australian the Liberal brand was “toxic” due to the performance of the federal government and that Labor’s strategy of constructing a merged image of Tony Abbott and Victorian Premier Denis Napthine had hurt the ­Coalition.

    The strategists have launched a final blitz linking Labor leader Daniel Andrews to radical elements within the CFMEU in the hope that this, and the ALP’s vows to tear up contracts for the East West Link road and tunnel project will sway undecided voters. A senior Liberal told The Australian that there was a string of seats where the two-party-preferred vote was moving between 52 and 48 per cent.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/victorian-coalition-pins-hopes-on-minority-rule/story-fnqetyrp-1227136200383

  47. Steve777
    [There would have been no issue of disclosure]
    This is a circular argument. Are you saying that he didn’t disclose it because there was an issue, and so his nondisclosure proves there was an issue?

    You have to start somewhere else.

  48. Morrison as Treasurer? Seriously? I can’t wait for him to hide behind some military figure and refuse to discuss “on budget operational matters”.

  49. DN

    On the scholarship. The first problem is the secrecy. Why hide if all above board. 2nd why is it only the PM’s daughter that got such a scholarship?

    These are reasonable questions to ask.

  50. That Pope cartoon in BK’s links at #20 [thanks BK, again – a valued daily contribution from you] is a beauty.

    The function of parliamentary personality politics, as practised by the media, is to focus on the individual politician, in this case Abbott.
    By destroying a single person eg Rudd, Gillard, they can create the illusion that if one person is replaced then all else will be well, the ship of state can sail on happily divested of the deadweight and policies can continue unchanged and unchallenged under the next new leader.
    Rinse, repeat as necessary.

    But in this cartoon Pope has transcended that – the COALition ship of fools is barbed wire just waiting to be sunk with or without the obstacle underneath.

    Cleverer than the average cartoon.

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