BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

The latest weekly reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate offers the Coalition a slight case of dead cat bounce.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a slight move back to the Coalition this week, which is more to do with the reduced impact of last week’s Newspoll outlier than this week’s ReachTEL and Essential Research results, both of which landed right on trend. The Coalition is up 0.7% on the primary vote, 0.4% on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection, that being in Tasmania, where the Liberals scored strongly in the unpublished ReachTEL breakdown. No new figures for the leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,353 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

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  1. Re Uni Fee Deregulation – composition of the Senate is likely:

    For: L/NP + FF + LDC = 35 votes
    Against: ALP + Greens + Lambie = 36 votes
    Absent: Lazarus
    ????: X, ex-DLP, Motorist, PUP = 4 votes

    So its probably gone – Pyne needs 3 of the four undecided to get it through. If the DLP guy is really in thevtradition of Chifley and Curtin he wouldn’t have a bar of it.

    As I’ve said before, if any of this abomination is passed, it should include one votal change – defer the start date by two years and let the voters have their say on whether it’s such a great idea.

  2. [[2304
    As I’ve said before, if any of this abomination is passed, it should include one votal change – defer the start date by two years and let the voters have their say on whether it’s such a great idea.

    Unfortunately, Abbott is convinced he was elected with a mandate to rip up the social contract. He and the rest of the Liberal Party are absolutely convinced of their own righteousness.

  3. steve777 – I saw that. At what point are the regional/non sandstone universities going to realise that that Universities Australia is only interested in promoting the neo-liberal interests of the Group of Eight?

  4. If you want the transcript of the ABC report. Tony Delroy Nightlife What the papers say 11:30 pm. If too long a wait for News to publish.

  5. Tony Delroy Nightlife “What the papers say” has been giving poll previews for ages, every time they discuss what’s on all the front pages, usually with staffers from each paper. Its just that usually someone else has got it first here or on twitter, so no one notices.

  6. Usually when I wait up this late for a poll I end up disappointed! Abbott’s approval down is positive though. Yes where’s James?

  7. [TONY Abbott’s approval rating has dropped to a five-month low and Labor continues to hold a substantial two-party-preferred lead over the Coalition, despite the Prime Minister yesterday insisting this year had been one of “very considerable achievement” by his government.

    The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian at the weekend, shows the government and the opposition are tied on a primary vote of 37 per cent. Bill Shorten retained his lead as better prime minister, as satisfaction with Mr Abbott’s performance fell for the fourth consecutive survey.

    Mr Abbott’s stocks fell three points to 33 per cent in the past fortnight and tumbled by eight points since reaching a high mark of 41 per cent in mid-September when there was strong support for his handling of foreign affairs issues including his response to the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17.]

  8. jeffemu – PUP have been saying they’ll vote against uni deregulation, but Palmer has shown in the past you cannot trust what he says.

  9. If PUP decide to oppose Uni Fee Deregulation, then assuming that Lambie and Muir vote against, Mr Lazarus’ absence won’t make any difference.

    If the PUPs roll over as is their form, assuming that Lambie opposes and Muir supports, Mr Lazrus’ absence means Pyne still needs one more (X or Madigan, assuming that Leyonhjelm and Day support).

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