The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a slight move back to the Coalition this week, which is more to do with the reduced impact of last week’s Newspoll outlier than this week’s ReachTEL and Essential Research results, both of which landed right on trend. The Coalition is up 0.7% on the primary vote, 0.4% on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection, that being in Tasmania, where the Liberals scored strongly in the unpublished ReachTEL breakdown. No new figures for the leadership ratings this week.
JD:
I watched his news conference this morning. He was somewhat incoherent on certain questions, and spent a great deal of it rambling and dissembling.
If his bold move is to hold these things as a circuit breaker, it’s likely only to bore the press gallery into submission.
Morgan is out, for those who want a laugh at Gary.
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5963-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-december-1-2014-201412010821
confessions @ 2200 – I think expecting or hoping a career bureaucrat to improve the political mistakes of a blindly-ideological government is at best incredibly foolish.
bemused@2153
There’s a sort of PS in-joke I’ve heard that when the government wants ideas to spend $1bil on infrastructure – VicRoads has six ideas on the table at 9 am the next day. The Department of transport has working committee ready to go in six months.
It feels like there is a fair bit of truth in that.
My local member, Luke Howarth (Petrie), has not been heard from since the election. Probably a good thing.
[I think expecting or hoping a career bureaucrat to improve the political mistakes of a blindly-ideological government is at best incredibly foolish.]
If it’s right that Credlin and the PMO are overloaded with ostensibly PM&C stuff, which in turn is causing poor judgment, then in theory having a Dept Secretary who can transition some of those functions back to PM&C should both lessen the load and focus the PMO back on what it should be doing.
kevjohnno @ 2205 – Labor almost held onto Petrie in 2013, despite the savage turn against Labor, so no doubt Howarth knows his days are numbered.
So Morgan narrows; to be honest, I expect Newspoll may do so marginally also, if only due to the Victorian election muddying the waters slightly and possibly causing some narrowing in that state.
Work to Rule @ 2204
There’s a sort of PS in-joke I’ve heard that when the government wants ideas to spend $1bil on infrastructure – VicRoads has six ideas on the table at 9 am the next day. The Department of transport has working committee ready to go in six months.
The story of the Regional Rail Link is testimony to the lack of any forward planning by the Victorian Department of Transport/Infrastructure. It was just a vague line on a map when the DoT got over $3 billion stimulus money from the Rudd government and suddenly had to work out how to spend it. The then DoT secretary admitted that the RRL costings had been worked out on the back of an envelope over one weekend.
A senior planner with the DoT told me that because for the four or more decades previously, bureaucrats (and the politicians) responsible for public transport had done nothing but prune, cut and close, there was no planning at all for any major new infrastructure.
At the same time VicRoads had been was busy massively expanding the major road network and confidently making any number of forward plans for further work.
Socrates@2177
So what percentage of the cost of running a railway system is drivers pay?
confessions @ 2201 and 2206 – but as the article you posted at 2200 said, Credlin is not a team player and does not listen to advice from people who’d know. So what reasonable expectation is there that a bureaucrat is going to be able to reign in Credlin and her bad decisions.
As for Abbott, his dreadful press conference performance clearly shows that he hoped that it would be spun by a friendly media as a comeback. Some in the media tried but it didn’t work.
More Senate chaos for our talented Prime Minster:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-faces-another-senate-headache-over-david-leyonhjelm-threat-20141201-11xq4t.html
Apparently Mark Textor is on Lateline tonight.
Liberals are certainly coming out of the woodwork to give their opinion on things.
[but as the article you posted at 2200 said, Credlin is not a team player and does not listen to advice from people who’d know.]
No, she isn’t stating that. She is simply repeating the views of others that have being bandied around about Credlin.
It may well be that Credlin’s talents as a CoS to a LOTO not a PM.
Work To Rule@2204
There’s a sort of PS in-joke I’ve heard that when the government wants ideas to spend $1bil on infrastructure – VicRoads has six ideas on the table at 9 am the next day. The Department of transport has working committee ready to go in six months.
It feels like there is a fair bit of truth in that.
====
I think the truth is more like Vicroads had the minister in their pocket and the 6 ideas were on the table the day before he sought them. :/
[Malcolm Farnsworth @mfarnsworth · 2h 2 hours ago
Peter Ryan says the result in Shepparton was “a well-orchestrated ambush that we didn’t see coming.” A revealing insight into the mentality.]
Wow, the Victorian Nationals are well and truly disconnected from their constituency.
I thought Andrews did pretty well against Sales on 7.30. Faced up to every ball, played a couple of good scoring shots. I don’t think Leigh really meant for Tony to be dragged in the way he was.
Peter Reith on Sky “I don’t think Tony is ever going to see a surplus as Prime Minister”. But but but Peter your party promised .
Bemused:
[So what percentage of the cost of running a railway system is drivers pay?]
The short answer is I don’t know, but it probably isn’t a huge percentage.
That is not the point.
There are many other improvements that automating the system could bring.
Trains that (all else being equal) run on time, trains that do not go too fast (or too slow), trains which can be programmed to run safely in any weather conditions, trains which accelerate and decelerate smoothly, trains which leave when they are supposed to.
Or just import German train drivers and train systems!
We were in Germany a few years ago, and got a ‘happy weekender’ pass to go a considerable distance on local regional trains.
I looked at the schedule (thirteen changes of trains) which detailed exactly when we were to arrive and leave each station, the platform we were to arrive at and the platform we were to leave at. I said to my wife ‘This can’t possibly work. Look, we arrive at platform 4 at 09.45 and have to leaver from platform 5 at 09.48. What if one of the trains is late or early?’
But of course it was easy. We got out of one train, crossed the platform, got in the next train, and had to wait a minute or two for it to leave. Same next station, and the next, and the next.
Reminds me of that old joke about the difference between Heaven and Hell. Heaven was where the trains were run by the Germans, the police were British, and so on. You can work out for yourself what Hell was, but the Brits were in charge of food, as I recall.
Just wonder if this weekends election result is the catalyst for the demise of the Abbott Government ?
Don @ 2189
Interesting thing about Perhs train tracks down the freeway is that the freeways predate the rail by many years.
When it was decided to put the rail along the freeway it was less of a problem heading north where I think the land had been left but heading south there was little room.
The Tories wanted a different route through the suburbs and said Labor’s plan wouldn’t work but if you have a plan and good engineers and a good minister like Alannah McTiernan you can do anything.
I shudder to think what Perth’s traffic would be like if those two rail lines had not been built.
2210
It is not just the proportion of total cost but the proportion of the cost of increasing services. The cost of running a service is mainly driver pay and thus driverless services can have more services at a lower cost and thus be more useful to passengers.
Yesiree Bob @ 2220 – probably a bit pointless to try attribute the downfall of any government to specific events. But we can say the attitude and policies of this government are causing it’s unpopularity and it’s attitude is what renders it incapable of understanding this.
[The Tories wanted a different route through the suburbs ]
Esp the rich toffs with their Swan River fronting mansions who said a rail line over the bridge would be unsightly. Vested interests fortunately didn’t get in the way of a good outcome for the wider public.
2216
The Country Alliance got 20% in (pre-redistribution) Shepparton last time. That shows some resentment.
The Independent announced her run 4 weeks before the election and did not get her prepoll act together until the final week of prepoll. That is not well organised.
Were Barnaby`s comments part of the well orchestrated ambush? I don`t think so.
rossmcg@2221
I only got to use the northern part of the system, and it was brilliant.
Thanks for filling us in on the sequence of events, it now looks like it was all done at the same time, it is seamless. And there are buses timetabled to connect with the places left and right of the train tracks, and what looked like decent car parks so people could drive if they wanted to the station, park, take the train to work, return, and get home with the minimum of fuss and wasted time along well designed roads, both freeways and suburban roads.
Perth has the distinct advantage of a relatively flat coastal plain, mostly uninterrupted by waterways apart from the Swan River, which must have made the job of the engineers a lot easier.
don@2219
Sticking to the costs, I was reading about the measures Qantas is taking to reduce costs.
There were a whole host of little things which individually mattered little, but taken together made quite a difference. Probably the same with trains.
rossmcg
[I shudder to think what Perth’s traffic would be like if those two rail lines had not been built]
And we should all thank Brian Burke for winning the 1983 election. The Freo line was shut and the Libs were going to sell off the land I f they won. Once that new train was up and running people saw the light and became believers.
[ Under the Coalition’s NBN all premises will have access to download speeds 25mbps to 100mbps by the end of 2016. ]
This was their election promise. Wheres my 25Mbps Minister??
BSA Bob@2217
Cheers Bob, I just watched the interview. It almost felt like he was offering Tony an out from his current predicament.
“Mr Abbott wants to be the infra-structure prime minister and I’ve got a lot of things I want to build and I am more than happy to partner with him ……”
Sounds like a lifeline to a PM on the brink.
Tom the first and best@2222
Driver pay, station staff pay, signaller pay, maintenance staff pay…etc.
Electricity, depreciation on some very expensive equipment, maintenance etc.
A whole lot of factors.
There is a lot of capital tied up in a railway system. It needs to be worked hard and efficiently.
The way I see it with the Lying Friar PM and the karma bus full on heading right at him.
During his time as Opposition Leader everything he did was orchestrated and not much was ever questioned.
During the election campaign everything was orchestrated down to the finest detail. i.e. the Press loaded into a bus and off to secret undisclosed locations. Once there and sometimes inside fenced off areas with the organised audience of the loyal to make it look like a random stop over to the unsuspecting TV audiences.
The Rabbott could just blame Gillard Rudd blah blah blah. But now all the hens are coming home to roost so he has to finally try and stand on his own and it just ain’t pretty.
And the punters are / have woken up to them. Soon the media might even work it all out.
Plan B looks like going to shit now too. And there is still plenty more to come.
It will be very interesting viewing.
Poroti
I well remember. Brian Burke had many bad points but he was right about rail.
He also abolished the death penalty in WA which was another good thing.
If I remember correctly, Richard Court’s government originally intended to have the Mandurah line come up the freeway to Murdoch (South St) and then head east to the Armadale line. An academic exposed the absurdity of this plan when he showed that it would be quicker for passengers to the city to get off the train at Murdoch and catch a bus from there to the CBD. The Gallop opposition advocated what is now the current route, which they implemented when they came into power.
During Richard Court’s tenure the Narrows Bridge was duplicated to ease traffic congestion. I understand at the time it was suggested the bridge be designed and built with capacity to take a rail line, something they refused to do. So when the Mandurah line was built a fair bit of effort had to go into strengthening the bridge for the rail line.
[2230
Work to Rule
Sounds like a lifeline to a PM on the brink.]
Except that federal conservatives, and Abbott in particular, seem to be theologically opposed to spending on public transport. As Daniel Andrews has said on multiple occasions, the $3 billion allocated for the East-West link was originally set aside for the Melbourne Metro.
Everyone’s looking to stick it to Abbott!
[Voters in the southern suburbs seat of Fisher will go to the polls on Saturday to elect a replacement for long-serving independent MP Bob Such, who died in October.
While Fisher is considered to be relatively safe Liberal territory, Labor hopes to capitalise on the unpopularity of the federal coalition.
The premier says the Liberals are panicking after voters in Victoria turfed out a first-term government at the weekend for the first time in 60 years.
“I think the people of Fisher actually understand that they have an opportunity to send a message to the Liberal Party about jobs,” he told reporters.]
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/national/a/25657949/federal-factor-at-play-in-sa-by-election/
Actually they had to add an additional bridge at the Narrows it seems: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narrows_Bridge_%28Perth%29#Railway_bridge:_2005
Hmmm… it’s 9:15 and no smug tweet from PvO?
JimmyDoyle@2235
It will be interesting if they choose to further into overdraft with their political capital to prevent spending on public infra-structure or whether enlightened self interest will win.
BC
Your memory ties with mine.
My favourite anti rail story is from the Tory grandee from the western suburbs who declared the Mandurah line a waste of money and it would only be used by the single mothers and age pensioners who lived down there.
And they would never be able to tunnel under the Perth CBD.
last time I looked the trains are packed with workers from the new suburbs south of the city and the tunnel is holding up.
J341983
PvO all WOWed out ?
J341983@2238
I think Newspoll was on the high side (not rouge side) last time but it has been a truly terrible two weeks for the conservatives. So with a bit of mean reversion and bit of conservative deterioration – i’d expect a similar result.
And the political cliche in Perth/WA is that the Liberals don’t build railways.
And as the hay-seeds in the wheat belt have found out, the Liberals are quite happy to not maintain/close railways there too.
The days of being able to get from one side of Perth to the other in 40 minutes or so, is long gone and….if it were not for the new railway network goodness only knows how clagged up the roads would be.
Perth people can perhaps blame themselves for the North-South march of suburbia from Mandurah to places like Jindalee.
c 2213 Apparently Mark Textor is on Lateline tonight.
Isn’t he that famous Liberal strategist who can win any election? Wonder why they didn’t use him in Victoria?
Oh is Newspoll due?
That will be somewhat anti-climatic after the weekend.
My guess?
53:47.
Cue Shanahan chortling recovery.
Work to Rule @ 2242 – maybe even 56-44 – one can hope…
RR:
Mumble’s been goading him on twitter about that.
😆
Maybe Textor was on long service leave when Labor won 21 consecutive state/territory elections. (Queensland 1998 to NSW 2007)
Or did John Howard not let him out of Canberra?
BK@2169
Where can this newly release schedule be found? Nbnco site?
I’ll fall off my chair if SA Labor get up in Fisher.
And I wonder if perhaps Abbott would be doing even worse if he didn’t have Credlin.