The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a slight move back to the Coalition this week, which is more to do with the reduced impact of last week’s Newspoll outlier than this week’s ReachTEL and Essential Research results, both of which landed right on trend. The Coalition is up 0.7% on the primary vote, 0.4% on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection, that being in Tasmania, where the Liberals scored strongly in the unpublished ReachTEL breakdown. No new figures for the leadership ratings this week.
If Morrison is smart he’ll stay the hell away from Treasury. With the Libs agenda of crazy it would be a poisoned chalice. He’ll be angling for the top job and will have noted how well being Treasurer has helped Hockey’s credentials and the general direction of the ecomony.
He would surely be saying that the job really is one for the Party’s Deputy Leader.
So will Newspoll be out in the field after this stellar week by Abbott and his collection of barnacles or will his boosters squib it?
The last time a federal Treasurer was dumped for reasons other than change of leadership was Cairns in 74, although obviously there have been a few like Lynch whose resignations were perhaps less than voluntary.
Bemused
This was linked from Alan Davies’ article (http://blogs.crikey.com.au/theurbanist/2014/11/24/could-an-andrews-government-really-deliver-on-this-promise/). Someone proposed a fantasy map of the Melbourne Metro network which I think is highly influenced by Singapore’s train map.
http://transitmaps.tumblr.com/post/86864340360/melbourne-ng
[If Morrison is smart he’ll stay the hell away from Treasury. With the Libs agenda of crazy]
The only problem with the theory is that he is one of the crazies.
BK,
Newspoll’s bounciness will probably see them come back in to 54/46 or 53/47 (so still over or on trend), and so give Dennis and the right wing cheer squad a chance to prove how popular Abbott’s cuts to the ABC have been and how the recovery has started.
Martin,
There are levels of crazy.
How often do Treasurers become PM?
– Hockey – now looks very unlikely
– Swan – no
– Costello – wanted the job but no
– Treasurers under Keating – no
– Keating – yes
– Howard – yes – after 13 years in Opposition. No one will wait that long again
– Other Fraser Treasurers – no
– Whitlam Treasurers – no
– Liberal Treasures 1949-72: Holt, yes, after a very long wait; McMahon – yes; other Treasurers – no.
In most cases, the job of Treasurer represents the pinnacle of their careers. I would expect Morrison to avoid the Treasurer’s job like the plague, given that I don’t see it likely that he would be any better at negotiating with the Opposition and Crossbenchers in the Senate. He would be better at bullying and threatening, but that won’t get him anywhere.
s777 – 93 Clearly the BoM should be sold-off / privatised, and all those pesky left-wing meteorologists should be sacked. And then the sea levels will stop rising!
On twitter.
[Shorten: Abbott has excised Victoria from Australia and sent his Foreign Minister to visit. #auspol #vicvotes]
mb..
The Phil Hughes accident is a genuine human interest story we can all identify with.. Seeing those terrible images of the young man falling forward onto his face ..and his teammates and opponents rushing to his aid was both heart-breaking ..and heart-warming at the same time..
It’s a bit like the out-pouring of public grief when Princess Diana was killed. People care ..it matters ..it affects us all. Mums, dads, brothers, sisters ..friends and strangers ..it matters FFS!!
Morrison for Treasurer is a reasonable call IMO. Working with Cormann, he would be able to adopt a one-dimensional “get the deficit under control” approach. He would be more effective at killing off silly ideas such as putting budget savings measures into big medical research funds, hypothecating fuel tax increases to road funding, the PPL, etc.
The Government could draw a line under the situation up to now, ease off a bit on blaming Labor’s past efforts for what has happened, and then focus on the future and challenge Labor to come up with better alternative savings measures.
But will Morrison be given free range to do what needs to be done? Or, like Hockey, will he suffer from constant meddling leading to unhelpful ideas such as the medical research fund?
Hmm, Kerin as Treasurer. Wikipedia says that he resigned although other websites accord with my memory that he was sacked.
markjs
I am hoping that Hughes can make it through with minimal brain damage. 🙁
I tend to agree that the amount of attention Hughes’ tragic situation is receiving is excessive. There are other things going on in the world, and he’s just one man.
I think it’s worth remembering that whatever we think about Morrison’s abilities to reset the budget debate, manage the economy, sell Lib policies better and negotiate with the Senate cross bench, *he* will believe that he can do all of these things.
markjs @ 111
I agree with you! I am no particular fan of cricket or any other sport to be honest but seeing that young man fall to the ground in the way he did particularly with his mother and sister watching was heartbreaking.
Meher
The Phil Hughes media treatment is just another example of our obsession with sport and celebrities
It is very sad for the young man and his family and I hope he makes a full recovery.
But if another young man was seriously injured in a freak workplace accident would it get the same coverage?
Every day hundreds, if not thousands of families around Australia, not to mention the world, have a tragedy to deal with. Just look at the death notices in the newspapers.
Some of the imagery borders on the bizarre. One report I heard had Hughes surrounded in hospital by family and teammates. Well no actually, very few would be able to see him and then probably only one or two at a time.
And just because I haven’t tweeted my love and prayers for Hughes doesn’t mean I don’t care.
Oh I don’t doubt he’d do a better job than Hockey or pretty much all of the other potential candidates. Just that he won’t want it if he’s thinking straight. He’s standing out as a beacon of competence in comparison to his colleagues and any change risks seeing him stumble, Treasury carrying the biggest risks of stumbles of all.
His ego might be big enough to think he can overcome all the obstacles in much the same way he has in immigration, but that would be bravado talking and bravado is what has got them where they are now.
Has Joe resigned or been sacked?
markjs@111: Yes, it matters to me to some extent. I once sat next to Hughes on a plane flight and he seemed like a quiet, shy, nice bloke. I’m very sorry about what happened to him, as I am about all sorts of strangers I hear about to whom bad things have happened.
I would also repeat my point that there hasn’t been any real news in the matter since Tuesday night. The medical staff more or less asked the media to go away for 48 hours while Hughes was left in an induced coma. This constant hanging around and filming all the people going in and out, and all the grisly coverage takes my mind to the sort of maudlin behaviour of the media in the Victorian era in covering hangings and the like. I have worked in media and public relations in my time, and the professionals there tend to describe this sort of journalism dismissively as “ambulance-chasing”.
As for the Princess Di outpourings, the late lamented Hitchins summed up both his and my feelings when he urged the entire population of Britain to “get a life”.
[In most cases, the job of Treasurer represents the pinnacle of their careers.]
I don’t think you can really draw a pattern. Treasurer is obviously a senior leadership role and is going to be one of the people ‘next in line’ whenever a government looks to leadership change. Most Treasurers don’t become PM but most ministers don’t become PM. Being Treasurer per se is not going to hurt or help your chance of becoming leader, but being someone considered capable of being Treasurer means that you are on the shortlist.
If Abbott gives the traditionally “poison chalice” of Treasurer to Scott Morrison it will a sign that he is determined to “cut off the legs” of any potential challengers, in the same way that he sends Turnbull out to spread “Turnbullsh*t” about things like the NBN, ABC cuts when Malcolm’s heart is clearly not in it.
meher
[Morrison for Treasurer is a reasonable call IMO.]
What? He would probably run treasury with the same swagger as he runs the “stopping of the boats” debacle – with secrecy!
I generally try and watch the NSW Shield games on the stream (was only checking the score when it happened though) and I’ve long been a huge Hughes fan, so I was pretty moved by it as someone who follows that level of the game and the particular player closely.
The coverage is of course over the top, but it’s just the media being the media. Hughes has been on TV and played sport for the country so obviously he’s a celebrity. We all know in the media 100,000 dead Africans = 1 dead white person = 1 celebrity with an ingrown toe nail. It’s sick, but it’s hardly new.
Morrison as Treasurer would at least have the gumption to turn back boatloads of sick and vulnerable policies such as the PPL and university fee deregulation.
Morrison is more likely to want Defence.
Bur the Sandgropers might throw a tanty losing a senior cabinent position.
I think the media would be aware that the next 24 hours are crucial for Hughes. The doctors would be trying to wake him up soon to see how much brain function he has.
My favorite quotes from Enrique Peñalosa, a Colombian politician who shook up public transport as mayor of Bogota :
“An advanced city is not a place where the poor move about in cars, rather it’s where even the rich use public transportation”
“We cannot continue to deceive ourselves thinking that to paint a little line on a road is a bike way. A bicycle way that is not safe for an 8-year old is not a bicycle way.”
sorry – wrong thread!
Dio – I am hoping for the perfect post-election – Phil Hughes being successfully woken up in a good state for his 26th birthday on Sunday.
Off topic. I have just finished watching the whole first season series of Fargo.
Highly recommend it.
I don’t really accept that Treasurer is inherently a “poisoned chalice”. I think there is a good argument that it is a ‘bad news portfolio’ and so will tend to reduce the public popularity of the incumbent. But conversely it is a position of authority within the government and so at least has the potential to elevate the standing of the incumbent within the party room. Obviously the latter is dependent on the incumbent not being a bozo like the current incumbent.
And now this from Allan Border re the Hughes incident.
http://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/allan-border-says-players-should-have-option-of-withdrawing-from-test-20141127-11uyns.html
Good grief!! I have worked in more than one organisation where much loved people have been seriously injured or even died in the course of performing their duties. And all of us had to front up at work the next day as per usual. Where would we be if emergency services workers were given this sort of consideration.
[Bur the Sandgropers might throw a tanty losing a senior cabinent position.]
Nah but we would stipulate that you keep the demoted Johnston remain on the eastern side of the nation for the remainder of his life.
Its Australia, its the beginning of the cricket season and Phil Hughes has represented Australia – ie all of us at the highest level of the game. Given how many kids aspire to do what he did, and play cricket its no wonder this is news. Its easy to identify with him on some level, especially if you like cricket.
No one knows how many poor kids have died from preventable causes/poverty (ie starvation and treatable illness) since his injury, here in Australia and overseas because they are invisible.
We can relate to someone like Hughes cos on some level we are all touched by the game of cricket – even if we hate it/ignore it we still have to deal with it impinging on our culture and lives. Poverty and third world deprivations aren’t part of our culture and are not something we deal with/give a shit about, (ask some blackfellas, who clearly aren’t part of “our” culture either.)
If we’re functioning humans we should feel for him, we were exposed to what happened to him. Most of us were heartbroken by images of people holding hands and jumping from the WTC because we were exposed to those images too. Even those of us for whom working in the WTC is so from who we are or will ever be. In 1984 the world tried to respond to the starvation in East Africa, even tho that sort of thing happens fairly regularly – because we were exposed to it. We saw it and it moved us.
Some people would feel cricketers represent us more than politicians do. Its no surprise that one of them suffering such a horrific injury grabs the public’s attention.
Victoria @ 132
Agree ! Excellent casting.Up there with the original movie.
jules @136
Totally agree with you – it is called compassion.
[Morrison is more likely to want Defence]
Will he? that really is a poisoned chalice (Not withstanding Fraser and Beazley). Departmental control of the portfolio is comparatively weak and its difficult to do anything without upsetting the vested interests, which is particularly problematic for a Coalition minister. And not doing anything is hardly a way to enhance your standing.
I coached a cricket team yesterday and all the kids were pretty shaken up by what had happened. Hundreds if thousands of people will play cricket this weekend and they and their families and friends will all think twice about taking their good health for granted.
The converse of Steve777@108:
How many PMs were previously Treasurer?
A quick look at the list of treasurers in Wikipedia says Bruce, Fadden, Chifley, Holt, McMahon, Howard and Keating.
Plus the early Labor PMs like Watson and Fisher were also Treasurer at the same time.
[Bur the Sandgropers might throw a tanty losing a senior cabinet position]
Back in the 80s Queenslanders always used to complain that they were underrepresented in Cabinet.
The problem was that Queensland used to send such a bunch of nongs to Canberra.
Peter of Marino
I loved the original movie. One of my all time favourites. The series has been equally good.
Mind you, being a nong from Queensland hasn’t stopped some people from getting into the current Cabinet.
MB,
Yeah that’s getting silly. Even calling off the whole Shield game was probably OTT, the whole round almost certainly so. It’s a bad injury and a wake up call for all the players about exactly how dangerous the game is, but it’s hardly the end of the world.
I’ve had a bit to do with League in my day and have seen instances where a young player has been air lifted from the ground. Sure that particular game was called off, but the rest of the games go ahead after the ground is clear, and next weekend it’s back on again.
No one likes seeing any player badly injured, but everyone involved with sport knows it can and sadly sometimes does happen. We try our best through protective equipment and rules to minimise the risk, but let’s not lose all perspective when it does happen.
[MB,]
Have I pointed out recently how there are too many MBs around here?
It’s always fun to speculate on the coming Fed reshuffle. Here’s a few ideas:
Out: McFarlane, Sinodinis Johnston and Dutton.
Mionistry Changes:
Morrison to Defence
Robb to Treasurer
Cash to Immigration
Turnbull to Trade
Fletcher to Communications
Bishop J to Health
Frydenburg to Foreign Affairs
Bilson to Industry
Porter to Assistant treasurer.
You could also speculate about Pyne, Abetz and Brandis.
The problem with the current Minsitry is that it is too Sydney centric and lacks the input of women. Any changes have to look at regional needs as well as talent.
WWP
The Tory cheerleaders would have use believe that Christian Porter is a readymade replacement for Johnson as a WA minister
Promotion would also serve a dual purpose of shutting him up about WA’s share of the GST.
[The problem was that Queensland used to send such a bunch of nongs to Canberra.]
Dutton, Brandis, what do you mean USED to?
Sorry Hockey goes to Small Business.