The latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll of federal voting intention for the Seven Network ticks a point in Labor’s favour, putting their two-party lead bang on BludgerTrack at 53-47. The biggest mover on the primary vote is Palmer United, who have slumped from 5.1% to 3.1%, with Labor up 1.2% to 38.7%, the Coalition up 0.1% to 40.2% and the Greens down 0.4% to 11.1%. Also featured are leadership ratings and attitudinal results on the G20 and, entertainingly, whether Jacqui Lambie should leave the Palmer United Party (43.4% yes, 17.6% no).
AA
In all likelihood MYEFO will still assume that all the budget announcements will be passed.
Then it will make for a cracker of a 2015/6 Budget!
BB 242… discussion format
Oh please no.
Confession @ 144 and Simon Katich @ 150 – Credlin is wot keeps this sh*stain of a government from being sent to the Great Laundry in the sky. She’s the tape that keeps the wheels on this trainwreck. The moment Credlin goes, Abbott is forked.
JimmyD
The Great Laundry you speak of is unlikely to be located in the sky. Try the other direction.
For years, until around Xmas 2013, the COALition enjoyed a considerable lead in the Newspoll 2PP.
In the same period and for most of that period Abbott’s netsats, as LOTO and PM, have been negative – significantly so – usually around double digits and often lower than the primary vote of the COALition which suggests the party was lifting him up and he was dragging it down.
He failed to garner support from his party supporters apart from a hard core of rusties and the poor netsats suggest virtually none from outside his party.
These are not the numbers of a successful party leader and they reflect badly on both him and his handler.
The praise for Credlin and her client, is misplaced.
The COALition did not win in 2013 on the backs of the efforts of either.
Simon Katich @ 254 – my apologies. Indeed industrial laundries would more likely be located below ground. And this government is going to one very, very far down.
fredex 255
who is praising Credlins client?
You are right in that the LNP brand (built by Howard) was not trashed in 2007 and partly to blame for them winning the last election.
But 2009 polling was showing ALP ahead 60-40 (ish).
The turnaround cant be put down to LNP popularity alone (if at all). Mostly it was Labors own undoing. But the Abbott/Credlin ticket cant be insignificant although the rabid support it got from the Murdoch press certainly helped.
Credlin is the Liberal Party leash on the Parliamentary leadership, when Abbott replaced Turnbull, Credlin (Mrs Brian L ) followed to become Abbott’s CoS.
She is there to keep him from going off on too many PPL jaunts again.
It is fun to see the Oz trying to figure out where it all went wrong. 🙂
ruawake @ 258 that immediately brought to mind “I dreamed a dream” from Les Miserables. I can just imagine the Oz playing the part of Fantine wailing into the distance:
“There was a time when men were kind
When their voices were soft
And their words inviting
There was a time when love was blind
And the world was a song
And the song was exciting
There was a time
Then it all went wrong”
Oddly apt!
Never mind the politics, feel the folksiness.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/newlook-jacqui-lambie-to-emerge-from-wilderness-20141122-11ruen.html#ixzz3Jlc0a3XJ
Discussion format may be the LNP’s worse nightmare. That is how Lateline started with Kerry O Brien.
It was much better then as it was common to have an international perspective on local issues.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victorians–how-weve-changed-and-what-it-means-for-the-state-election-20141121-11r4po.html#ixzz3JldAod6H
From Pyne’s ABC petition…
Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 31m 31 minutes ago
All these ministers having their reputations besmirched by the PMs “no cuts” pledge: @TurnbullMalcolm, @PeterDutton_MP, @JoeHockey & @cpyne.
Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 9m 9 minutes ago
Fancy being Sarah Henderson – former ABC anchor now marginal seat Liberal MP. Good luck selling the cuts in two journo ABC bureau Geelong…
LU
Thanks … It is exciting though the low conversion efficiencies suggest this might be best suited to devices requiring only trivial power (LEDs on an automatic cycle, low powered wireless repeaters, observation devices etc in remote locations.) Deserts and wilderness where the diurnal range is large would be good settings because supplying mains power or even batteries would be costly.
Poroti
Thanks. It is exciting but a few observations
1. I was mainly interested in H2 ICE vehicles rather than those fitted with low temp FCs. These require noble metals and thus depend more greatly on resource extraction than might a H2 ICE. Necessarily, their price will be very high so it will be for quite some time, a vehicle available only to the wealthy, probably running on fossil-sourced H2. If non-fossil H2 became widely available, then that would be a big step forward.
2. While I am very keen on low footprint vehicles, the best solution of all is for us to produce and operate as few as possible, consistent with meeting good service standards. Redesigning our cities to minimise reliance on road vehicles and to facilitate walking and cycling gets us advantages in addition to low CO2 — we save on scarce resources, reduce our call on polymers, cut road trauma and get better health outcomes.
The promo said that even when driving ‘you’re doing your bit for the environment’ which really is just plain lying. Your activity may be relatively benign, but your driving is certainly making a call on ecosystem service.
If they’d said ‘we know you care about the environment as much as we do, and this vehicle treads about as lightly on our fragile Earth as any car with this performance and comfort can …’ Then they’d still be guilty of spinning, but it wouldn’t be flat out wrong.
Still, colour me intrigued. I do love high quality engineering. It is a beautiful thing.
WTR @200
I’d broadly agree on the G&ST . We ought to develop a nuanced position. IMO a portfolio approach to levying the populace is likely to be the most robust means of acquiring the revenues needed at the lowest cost per dollar in compliance.
We do need to ensure that the ‘back end’ — social equity, is advanced rather than prejudiced by any changes of course, as you rightly suggest.
I’m just back from lunch. One guest told me that his son works in the Environment Dept in Canberra and the stories he tells his Dad would apparently make my hair curl (quite a feat). The young chap can’t resign, because he has just ‘started a family’.
The gentleman said he couldn’t be specific as he’d be betraying confidences, but bludgers can guess that a department which has to give objective scientific advice, but whose advice is ignored, can get very frustrated, especially when the Minister does the opposite to what is recommended.
We had a nice ‘bitchy’ chat about Abbott’s attitude to science, the lack of a Minister, and other themes well known to bludgers, with a side swipe at deceitful Liberals.
Simon
Who praised Abbott .. and Credlin?
The media.
masterful
on message
forceful
dispatched Rudd and Gillard and Rudd
disciplined
trust Tony
Lots more in that vein in a constant stream from the media.
Bernard Keane named him politician of the year.
And as you say,”rabid support it
got from the Murdoch press certainly helped”.
Without that support and the same from elsewhere bit would have been toast.
That ticket was significant, but not necessarily in a positive sense – as the numbers illustrate.
2013 was the triumph of the media- led by Murdoch.
lizzi
Re the Lambie article. How were we so blind as to have totally missed the connection between hairstyle and and policies ? 🙂
Not surprising the Murdoch media are not headlining “split in Abbott Cabinet” with Pyne petitioning against something he would have voted on in Cabinet meetings
Katy Perry having a go at the lower part of the “journalism” in this country
http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/celebrity/katy-perry-caught-up-in-paparazzi-fray-in-sydney-20141122-11rvvk.html
lizzie:
Imagine how the CSIRO staff feel.
fredex – re who praised Abbott?
Oh, sorry, I thought you meant who praised him in this PB discussion on Credlin.
I’m not falling for “increase the GST and compensate with tax cuts and you’ll be better off” tactic.
The last time I praised him was also the first and almost certainly the last – and it was around 2003.
Re the Pyne Petition to save his area from cuts to the ABC:
I have contributed to lots of petitions on Change.org where the numbers are up in the thousands.
Just had a look at Pyne’s petition and it has 2,640 votes what a crock.
AA
Murdoch Media in bed with big oil with their Saudi Prince partner. Having done all that work getting a pro fossil fuel government in place they are not going to talk that government down any more than they have to.
Easy to get false impressions from the net ain’t it Simon?
And as soon as I read that back I realised it could be interpreted as a snide remark.
Its not I’m agreeing.
confessions
They’ve been unhappy for some years, but things are getting ridiculous when the govt cuts funds to research which would bring in dollars as well as health benefits.
I am thinking than when Hockey’s and Cormann’s wives complain that the housekeeping doesn’t go far enough, their weekly amount is then cut back to force them to become more efficient.
(Okay, I know that’s a silly metaphor.)
I’m currently studying law and politics and uni, is anyone in a position to know whether adding a major in public relations would be advantageous to pursuing a career in politics and/or law?
that should read at uni.
278
Except that the Saudi prince just failed to vote to protect Murdoch family control, meaning it only just survived.
AA
Agreed. Tax cuts only benefit those who actually pay it.
Jimmy
I’d go for a minor in public relations, or even social psych. It’s pretty simple stuff.
JimmyDoyle
any credential is an advantage but …
1. Consider carefully NPV — cost in time money, course components foregone to do it …
2. Do you like the idea of doing public relations (rather than straight legal) work. It’s only advantageous if there is a law firm that wants you to look after that work.
Most PR courses I’ve seen are not all that rigorous and the reading is a little tedious. Their applicability would be limited, IMO.
You might consider a community language, because that’s going to allow you to trade your law skills (or your outreach to the C&LD folk) more effectively. You might find that a lot more interesting than PR.
For a couple of years there every neophyte ALP apprentice flunkey I met, out of a couple of dozen state and federal, had a business degree.
All of them.
fredex
Not very radical thinkers, then.
Fredex
No snideness detected and none intended. It’s a good discussion working out how the turnaround happened and what role the likes ofCredlin, the leader, the party and the media have in that.
lizzie
Not at all.
Always smart casual or suited even in informal situations.
Self opinionated, contemptuous of party veterans, worshipped ‘pragmatism’, thought Crikey was ‘leftist’, and spoke with corporate tongues and had no idea as to how to relate to voters.
A couple were human but most were clones of each other.
I have no idea why but I was not impressed.
fredex
😆
http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/2014-boils-toward-warmest-year-ever-three-more-records-broken-n252776
lizzie
Posted Saturday, November 22, 2014 at 3:48 pm | Permalink
Agreed. Tax cuts only benefit those who actually pay it.
How do you compensate people who earn less than the $18000
Lizzie and Fran Barlow – your sage advice is much appreciated.
Fran, unfortunately I am profoundly hearing impaired so languages at tertiary level are too difficult for me. Also could you enlighten me what you mean by C&LD?
Fredex – I shall avoid a business degree then 😛
AA
Not only those who earn less than $18k, but also all those wealthy superannuants who thanks to peter Costello pay no tax on their income from superannuation.
rossmcg – I am conflicted about taxing income from super, even for the very wealthy,as is it not meant to fund what could be 40+ years of retirement. I do however support abolishing super tax concessions that the wealthy receive in their years of working that are not available to people at lower incomes.
Jimmy
Good on yer.
For years, too many, in a previous life, I taught CHIC kids, coached them at footy and other sports.
You are already, I presume, multilingual.
AA
Plainly, people below the threshhold can be compensated with
A) Income support payments
And/or
B ) Means-tested non-liquid benefits (such as housing assistance, free or cheap public transport, free or cheap medical or dental etc)
Now personally, I prefer the balance between these two to be on B rather than A, largely because these will tend to their real value and not be subject to a bunfight. Moreover, it helps protect the interests of children in homes where household income can be modest and those in receipt lack effective budgeting skills or discipline.
I do believe that creating a large pool of high quality public housing stock in good locations ought to be a priority.
JimmyDoyle
C&LD. … sounded ‘cald’ : Culturally & Linguistically Diverse … The latest acronym.
Jimmy
Taxation on super is a minefield. There is no doubt that the benefits are skewed towards high income earners and something is going to have to be done. But it will be a brave politician who tries to mess with the retired and their benefits.
I was a major beneficiary of the salary sacrifice rules in the last few years in the workforce because I was reasonably well paid.
It doesn’t work as well for those on lower incomes.
I find it a big wrong that a couple can draw about $70k a year from a super fund tax free and still qualify for a part age pension with all the benefits that go with that.