A heavy duty result from Newspoll this weeks activates some serious movement in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with Labor up a full point on two-party preferred and the better part of 2% on the primary vote. The model is particularly impressed that Newspoll should have Labor’s primary vote as high as 39%, given its traditional tendency to track a little low in Newspoll. This leaves less of the vote for each of the Coalition, the Greens and Palmer United, with the latter once again in the position of recording a new post-election low.
On the seat projection, Labor gains a seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia to reach 83 seats, which is as many as it won in 2007. Bill Shorten has also shot to the lead as preferred prime minister, although you would want to see that corroborated by another pollster. Shorten’s net approval rating remains just below parity, where it has sat with remarkable consistency since the correction over New Year that ended his initial honeymoon period. Tony Abbott on the other hand is back on a downward trajectory, putting his net approval rating back to where it had plateaued following the MH17 disaster, before the second spike in his favour as domestic terrorism concerns dominated the agenda in mid-September.
Darren Laver@741
Interesting as the polls may be, they lack the element of drama present when a government is on a knife edge.
Gillard was in a situation where she could have faced an election at any time. This is not the case with Abbott, unfortunately, so any polls now lack that element of potential immediate relevance.
Too many or too few? Getting 1.4 million signatures on a petition calling for a fresh election would be a very big ask in my view. Even people who voted for someone other than the governing party would be reluctant to sign such a petition lightly. There would need to be intense, widespread anger at the government for a petition effort to succeed.
[ Libertarian Unionist
Posted Friday, November 21, 2014 at 4:41 pm | Permalink
Still requires about a 30% increase to get back to late 2007 pre GFC levels.
Indeed. And how’s the future looking? ]
This is what highly regarded Jeremy Gratham from GMO said earlier this week –
[ My personal fond hope and expectation is still for a market that runs deep into bubble territory (which starts,
as mentioned earlier, at 2250 on the S&P 500 on our data) before crashing as it always does. {S&P 500 is currently 2027}
Hopefully by then, but depending on what the rest of the world’s equities do, our holdings of global equities will be down to 20% or less.
Usually the bubble excitement – which seems inevitably to be led by U.S. markets – starts about now, entering the sweet spot of the Presidential Cycle’s year three, but occasionally, as you have probably discovered the hard way already, history can be a snare and not a help. ]
Pasted from a PDF which is free but requires registration at GMO to access. Worth subscribing to then the quarterly Newsletter will be emailed to you. They never SPAM people.
What he says appears to line up with around the time the Fed is talking about lifting interest rates – but we will have to wait and see.
GMO BTW has done heaps of work on Market Bubbles over the years.
http://www.gmo.com/
At this point in time (cliche I hate ), I don’t think that we lefties are half as worried about where the polls are, as about the damage that Abbott’s RYNJ government will do to the country before he’s through.
Nicholas – I dare say that opponents of the Howard Government, and no doubt of the Rudd/Gillard Government, could have rustled up those 1.4 million signatures. I imagine that the mining companies and/or Rupert Murdoch could have organised a well financed signature gathering campaign against Rudd and/or Gillard.
Its starting to pile on
@ABCthedrum: Tony Abbott’s problems go much deeper than Andrew Bolt realises | @timdunlop http://t.co/XhwpEo3Y0H
Let’s face it — three year terms are pretty short at the best of times — and more often than not, it’s less than that.
I would not propose additional votations at a federal level beyond the current cycle. If anything, longer-terms would be better, quite frankly, for forward thinking governments wishing to deliver longer-term visions.
Darren Laver – four year terms are nice in theory, but can you imagine a whole extra year of Abbott?
The Libs have a habit of attacking Obama, maybe he remembers this when he was a Senator? I wonder if Bishop Jr remembers?
[“I think he’s wrong. I think that will just encourage those who want to completely destabilise and destroy Iraq, and create chaos and a victory for the terrorists to hang on and hope for an Obama victory,”
“If I were running al-Qaeda in Iraq, I would put a circle around March 2008 and be praying as many times as possible for a victory not only for Obama but also for the Democrats.”]
Citizen initiated referendums are often advocated by howling at the moon right wingers who take their lead from like minded groups in the US.
That alone should be evidence that they are not a good idea.
I have been a voter for 40 years and it is fair to say I haven’t always been happy with the result. But the system we have has stood us in good stead, with the notable exception of 1975, so I am naturally suspicious of any plan to change it.
Generally good governments get reelected and bad ones get the flick.
A government that was at the mercy of interest groups that could force a poll or referendum would be too afraid to do anything.
[Grattan on Friday: Government should tone down ideology and turn up common sense]
http://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-government-should-tone-down-ideology-and-turn-up-common-sense-34490
752
In a divisive time, it would be quite easy to get that many. It would make difficult and divisive reforms harder and would give more influence to moneyed interests who have more resources to mount recall campaigns.
guytaur
I’d love to be a fly on the wall as Tony and Julie and Peta and all start to get the phone calls from their Fossilised mates, reminding them how much they have contributed to the Liberal coffers.
[Grattan on Friday: Government should tone down ideology and turn up common sense]
Too little, too late, Michelle.
guytaur@761
That should be marked for attention Darren Laver. 😉
[Daren Laver
Grattan on Friday: Government should tone down ideology and turn up common sense
Too little, too late, Michelle.]
This is what passes for serious journalistic analysis in Grattan’s eyes? Jaysus, I could do this sh*t with my eyes closed. Just fling a book of cliches at the topic of the day and see what sticks.
[This is what passes for serious journalistic analysis in Grattan’s eyes? Jaysus, I could do this sh*t with my eyes closed. Just fling a book of cliches at the topic of the day and see what sticks.]
Very basic algorithm could generate most of Grattan’s output. She could quite literally be replaced by a machine.
Just watching ABC-24 weather…
Record maximum temperatures and minimums all over Australia: north, south east and west.
Thankfully, I read The Blog Of Bolt this morning and am comforted by the knowledge that Global Warming is a leftist myth.
So the one who will ‘negotiate’ on climate is the one who … oh, forget it.
[Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, now taking a well-publicised bow at the United Nations Security Council as Australia finishes its term as a temporary member, will be in charge of Australia’s climate negotiations over the coming year. She’s off soon to a climate conference in Lima.]
I defend Michell Grattan here. Commonsense seems to be missing in the Coal Cabinet.
[Also behind the weakening of consumer protections had been an ideological belief by senior Coalition figures that if you go to a financial adviser you should be able to look after yourself – equivalent to saying if you visit a doctor you should be able to second guess the prescriptions he gives you.
It’s extraordinary that ministers put ideology and delivering to the banks ahead of the impact of what has happened to so many of the community’s small investors.]
Just have a continuous poll where you can change your vote any time.
Morgan is SMS polling Qld voting intention and preferred Premier – just sen mr responses back.
[It’s extraordinary that ministers put ideology and delivering to the banks ahead of the impact of what has happened to so many of the community’s small investors.]
She only just realises this government would put ideology over the community’s interest?
She is rather slow if this is the first time she has come to this conclusion…
Lizzie @ 770 – Yes, Grattan is to be congratulated on only now coming to the same realisation that the vast majority of Australians had six months ago when this government brought down it’s budget.
DL
[Very basic algorithm could generate most of Grattan’s output. She could quite literally be replaced by a machine.]
Or a ghost writer???
[If I were running al-Qaeda in Iraq, I would put a circle around March 2008 and be praying as many times as possible for a victory not only for Obama but also for the Democrats.]
Are we talking “72 Virgins” here?
Obama had most of them killed, and then for the cherry on top came Osama.
Yes, Obama was a terrible failure in the War Against Terrorism, wasn’t he?
Jimmy and Darren
When a loved one turns out to be a rat, it takes a while for the truth to sink in and then be spoken (written) aloud.
[Jimmy and Darren
When a loved one turns out to be a rat, it takes a while for the truth to sink in and then be spoken (written) aloud.]
Fair enough — I might have to give her (or the algorithm currently generating her columns) the benefit of the doubt then.
I received this in my email…
[There’s a new petition trending on Change.org, and we think you might be interested in signing it…
The Executive Members.: Toughen the regulations for Foreign Investment in Australia.]
I didn’t sign the petition. Instead I replied as follows….
“I’m fully in favour of foreign buying of Australian property. Housing is a consumer good. Effectively, we are “exporting” some of our housing production. Good idea. We can always produce more housing if that’s what customers want to buy from us.
We are happy to sell iron ore, coal, gas, foodstuffs, education and other products. Why would we want to limit sales of our production?
In any case, what we really need to do to redress the issue of the cost of housing is to abolish the tax breaks that favour spending on housing (consumption) rather than on investment in the real economy (expanding our capital base).”
Lizzie – one journalist I have a lot of time for is Laura Tingle. I’m not sure that everyone would agree though. Still, it’s a shame she’s behind the paywall most of the time.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/a-julia-gillard-moment-alan-jones-lets-fly-at-abbott-government-over-middle-head-aged-care-plan-20141121-11rgis.html
Oh dear Jones is not happy with Abbott!
[http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/a-julia-gillard-moment-alan-jones-lets-fly-at-abbott-government-over-middle-head-aged-care-plan-20141121-11rgis.html
Oh dear Jones is not happy with Abbott!]
Looks like the Libs will have to appoint another Minister for Alan Jones like they did under Howard…
There may be something to the psychopath angle for TA.
http://www.hrzone.com/feature/people/are-you-employing-corporate-psychopath/141111
“And there appear to be physiological differences between psychopaths and everybody else — a recent study showed that the psychopathic brain has significantly less grey matter in the anterior rostral prefrontal cortex and temporal poles than the brains of both non-psychopathic offenders and non-offenders. These areas of the brain appear to be important for reading other people’s emotions and intentions, and seem to be active when people think about moral behaviour.
Neuroscientists have also found that the amygdala is impaired in psychopaths. The amygdala is responsible for stimulus-reinforcement learning and responding to emotional expressions, particularly fearful expressions. It is also involved in the formation of both stimulus-punishment and stimulus-reward associations.”
Just to remind everyone:
https://twitter.com/taodehaas/status/535684896996327424
[Grattan on Friday: Government should tone down ideology and turn up common sense]
The LNP don’t know anything other than ideology. They are an agit/prop machine. That’s their job. From their point of view, “common sense” is just another term for what they already use.
Everything the LNP do is calculated to confront, confound, obstruct and discredit their opponents, wherever they may be found – in the Parliament, the media, the community; in business, the unions and the academies, the LNP work to take power in all its forms from others.
They are monopolists in the power game.
[ the vast majority of Australians had six months ago when this government brought down it’s budget. ]
Don’t forget either this is the same budget credlin boasted *SHE would be happy to take to an election*.
Lets hope she still calls many of the shots and they keep digging a deeper hole!
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/buildings-on-fire-at-lansvale-factory-complex-20141121-11rhuo.html
Big fire at Lansvale in Sydney!
Zoomster
[Which would have the losing party in an election racing out the day after the polls closed to start gathering signatures.]
While I wouldn’t endorse this measure I doubt in practice it would happen very often (though Abbott might have tried this post-2010 with Murdoch behind him). The move could backfire and look like sour grapes and an insult to the majority. It also sets a precedent that much like blocking the budget, could come back to bite you.
Oddly, if Abbott had tried this in late 2010, and assuming he got his 10% I suspect it would have backfired because ‘the new paradigm’ was still fairly popular as a concept and much of what tore down the regime had not yet occurred. Gillard would either have got an absolute majority getting her the legitimacy that was held to be absent or at worst have been narrowly defeated rather than routed. Abbott would have bought the turn down in commodity prices, proved to be the incompetent he is, and the ALP could have sorted out their internal problems under much less pressure and acrimony. They would not have done Malaysia, Nauru and Manus.
They might then have won 2013. Abbott would be gone and ALP supporters would be much happier today.
Jimmy
Yes, Laura Tingle, she tends to like facts and figures. And Lenore Taylor has come out of her shell since joining the Guardian.
Reachtel on seven news Sydney has the 2PP at 53-47 for the ALP.
Abbott marked poorly for his G20 effort.
[Reachtel on seven news Sydney has the 2PP at 53-47 for the ALP.
Abbott marked poorly for his G20 effort.]
interesting
any primaries?
Lizzie – Lenore Taylor and Katharine Murphy are The Guardian Australia.
MB@699
Your spirited defence of FK is noted regarding the use of ‘we’ those few years ago.
I am a little more hard hearted in that those who live by the word (professionally) are at risk of dying by the word.
FPJG was given no quarter from the media when she accidentally – get that – accidentally fell over and lost her shoe.
I did not hear too much of ‘Oh, that is the kind of thing that can happen to anyone’ and should thereby should soon be forgotten. No, the commercial media played her fall, and her consequent lack of dignity for a PM, over and over and over again.
I might add John Howard suffered the same indignity when the shoe was thrown at him.
The media, of which Fran Kelly is part, is fair game when they let their guard slip under the current rules of engagement of public discourse in Oz – at least from my corner.
Its fun to watch the Libs fanclub try to figure out why their beloved party is behind in the polls to the nasty socialist tax and spend party.
They know something has to be done but what? It can’t be policy, they’re all triffic, Tony is superman in budgies, heck they won’t be able to blame the ABC soon.
Alien mind probes? Maybe next.
This story is good.
Boris Johnson, London Mayor, was born in the US, has a US Passport plus a UK one and as London Mayor has been chasing the US UK Embassy to pay overdue London congestion tax – now the US are demanding he pay US CGT on his London Property –
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/20/boris-johnson-us-tax-bill
Tricot – boot to mention Howard had a fall that was caught on camera too.
Tricot – not to mention Howard had a fall that was caught on camera too.
Apologies for the double post.
Laura Tingle combines policy wonkery with taut prose. She is a gem.
Ctar1
did I see Sean Tisme mentioned earlier? Was he/she the one who pretended to be working in the mines? Its been a while and I may be getting my St Tisme Edwina Mods all mixed up.