Absolutely no change whatsoever in this week’s Essential Research result, except that the “others” reading is up a point to 9% without making any change the other primary votes, because rounding. That means Labor leads 52-48 on two-party while trailing 40% to 38% on the primary vote, with the Greens on 10% and Palmer United on 4%. We also get Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which have Tony Abbott down one on approval to 39% and up two on disapproval to 50%, Bill Shorten up two on both measures to 37% and 38%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 38-32 to 36-34. Further questions are inspired by data retention, the most direct of which finds 41% broadly supportive and 44% broadly opposed. A slight majority indicated a lot or some trust for police and intelligence agencies not to misuse data (53% against 42% for little or no trust), but few did so for private companies. Only 34% expressed support for the AFP using data retention to pursue illegal downloaders, with 47% opposed.
Elsewhere:
• United Voice has commissioned ReachTEL to conduct automated phone polls of the North Sydney (Joe Hockey, Liberal) and McMahon (Chris Bowen, Labor) electorates, by way of promoting its campaign for childcare funding. The full results, including responses to questions on childcare, can be downloaded here. Excluding the undecided, the North Sydney poll has the Liberals on 49% (down 12%), Labor on 34% (up 14%) and the Greens on 13% (down 3%), translating on 2013 preferences to a Liberal two-party vote of 53.7% (down 12.2%). However, the McMahon poll is almost bang on the 2013 election result: Labor 49% (down 2%), Liberal 40% (down 1%) and Greens 4% (up 1%), with Labor’s two-party vote unchanged at 55.3%.
• The Australian Electoral Commission has been rebuked in an Australian National Audit Office report for failing to implement promised improvements to ballot box and polling booth security before the 2013 election, and not doing as much as it claimed to have done to implement the recommendations of the Keelty report following the WA Senate disaster. More from Harley Dennett at The Mandarin.
• South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill has flagged the possibility of Legislative Council reforms, in particular an end to staggered eight-year terms, to be implemented after a referendum.
ALP did not have any presence at my local booth in the North Sydney Electorate, Willoughby Girl’s high school, at last years’ election.
Malcolm (and his Commn Depart) still hold the view that businesses, like private people, can easily relocate to obtain better broadband services. CBDs are going to be pretty crowded soon!!
[Businesses did not need better broadband through the NBN because they “have the capacity to relocate to areas where there is high-speed broadband already available”, a Department of Communications spokesman said.
“A study found there is little unmet demand for high‐speed broadband by businesses, given that fibre networks cover capital city central business districts.”]
http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/government-it/nbn-revenue-model-minimised-business-broadband-needs-20141110-11g068.html
Steve
Cate Blanchett resides in the electorate.
So is Eddie Obeid who can run as an independent.
Eddie Obeid probably votes for Joe.
50
I have just put that link you drew my attention to (thank-you), in a comment on the Victorian thread.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/11/09/victorian-election-highlights-of-week-one-2/?comment_page=2/#comment-2076636
52-48 level seems to be setting in. I wonder what “cunning plan” Abbott’s crew will come up with to try and persuade us they are in fact our best maaates
Change the Party name to Labor
Hockey is the sort of “I’m the victim” bully who will do anything to evade blame for his mistakes.
Hockey is the victim of a bully. Remember the story about Abbott punching his lights out? Something to do with rugby
Rex
As you’d surely know, in any election where preferences are compulsory, your preferences are going to wind up with either the ALP or the Coalition in almost every case, rendering your sentiment to vote for someone else not merely moot but in direct conflict with your intent.
Voting for nobody at least withholds your consent from things to which one objects.
Just back from the specialist. I can go back to work as long as they have something I can do one handed, which will be my left hand (I’m right handed), and not allowed to lift anything heavier than ONE kilo.
My bloody work boots weigh more than that….
shellbell@51
So where were you helping out?
[Businesses did not need better broadband through the NBN because they “have the capacity to relocate to areas where there is high-speed broadband already available”, a Department of Communications spokesman said.]
Yes, let them eat cake!
BK
Does this mean that his Dept is as backward thinling as Malcolm, or that he’s trodden on them until they agree with him.
I wish someone would explain to the Coalition that “infrastructure” does not only mean roads.
AAARRR the NBN
Liberals will bring us yesterdays technology tomorrow
Just coz I saw this elsewhere
Pew Research:
26% of younger Muslims in America believe suicide bombings are justified.
35% of young Muslims in Britain believe suicide bombings are justified (24% overall).
42% of young Muslims in France believe suicide bombings are justified (35% overall).
22% of young Muslims in Germany believe suicide bombings are justified.(13% overall).
29% of young Muslims in Spain believe suicide bombings are justified.(25% overall).
Perhaps those who are much in favour of suicide bombings should be provided the opportunity to practice, I’m sure the Army will provide an area
We all know that the fraudulent Abbott Govt’s only interest in their corporate backers interests and not the national interest.
Fran
What would likely happen if an Independant candidate gained 60% of first pref votes in each HoR seat?
Victoria
I too thought instantly of Hannibal Lector with that photo.
[ The rate they are going they will have un legislated budgets piling on top of each other. ]
Hilarious isn’t it. 🙂
[ It is blocking them by threat not by actually blocking them on the chamber floor. ]
They really do NOT want to be in a situation where they have DD triggers and are seen to be too gutless to use them. At the moment they can rant and rave about the ALP and Senate being uncooperative. If they had an actual DD trigger then people would be saying:
“ok, if its sooooooooo bad then let the people decide at an election and if its not that bad then stop whining and craft a budget that either CAN get through the Senate, or that you would be happy to face the people on.”
It will be a very strange situation if we get to MYEFO and they still haven’t tested the actual vote on these measures they say are so critical.
[42
Work To Rule
Part of the folly of Abbott’s government is they burnt their political capital so early in their term and for pretty much no long term gain.]
They, and Abbott himself in particular, came into office with limited political capital, having already burnt most of it via the means they used to gain office. They then promptly blew the precious remainder in a short spree, often on utterly stupid shit like Sirs and Dames. And then, incredibly, proceeded to hock themselves ever further into political debt with nary a glance backwards for the cautionary experiential lesson from their first few months in office – that hole just keeps getting deeper.
The real debt and deficit disaster is with the political capital of the government and the PM himself. Not to mention with their integrity and competence.
I do like to see a maverick speaking out against secrecy.
[Liberal senator Bill Heffernan has called for transparency in negotiations over international trade deals including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the China Free Trade Agreement (FTA), saying Australians deserve to know the details.
“I mean, it’s all shrouded in bloody, in secrecy, I mean I would like to know what the details are,” Heffernan said.
“I’ve asked the various players and I’ve been told ‘Bill, it’s all, it’s all in … you know, we can’t tell you because it’s all sort of commercial-in-confidence’. You know, I just think we deserve to know the details of these things.”]
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/nov/11/bill-heffernan-calls-for-transparency-china-tpp-free-trade-agreements
[Sir David Attenborough and Dr Jane Goodall have made an unusual intervention into Australian state politics by calling for a new national park to be created in Victoria to save the endangered Leadbeater’s possum.
Attenborough, who is visiting Australia, has thrown his support behind the establishment of the Great Forest national park, which would encompass much of the central highlands area of Victoria.
“The maintenance of an intact ecological system is the only way to ensure the continued existence of biodiversity, safeguard water supplies and provide spiritual nourishment for ourselves and future generations,” the naturalist and wildlife documentary maker said.
“It is for these reasons, and for the survival of the critically endangered Leadbeater’s possum, that I support the creation of the Great Forest national park for Victoria.”]
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/nov/11/-sp-david-attenborough-jane-goodall-join-fight-create-national-park-victoria
Was it just me or has this year’s Remembrance Day been a bit of a fizzer, Home Front psywar-wise?
What would likely happen if an Independant candidate gained 60% of first pref votes in each HoR seat?
mayhem
[ – that hole just keeps getting deeper. ]
What amazes me is that they are STILL digging??
And flying the GST increase kite when there are so many other, less regressive ways to deal with revenue, AFTER they have been roasted for trying to bringing such an unfair budget, just seems to be a call for an even bigger shovel.
from yesterday, I still find this amusing
G – GOTTA
S – STOP
T – TONY
The GST is a distraction from the real thieves – the corporations who refuse to pay their fair share – the true Leaners
BW,
I’d disagree. I was at our office today with a about 150 people in one of those open plan set ups. Normally, the place absolutely hums with chatter and exuberance of some fairly robust personalities doing the sales persons normal business.
An announcement over the internal loud speaker was broadcast at 11am to remind everyone it was Remembrance Day and requesting the observance of a minute’s silence.
The whole place became absolutely silent as people stopped work and bowed their heads or stood in absolute undistracted silence for the minute.
It was really very moving.
[Speaking of the election for North Sydney in 2007, polling conducted before election day suggested Hockey was in big trouble, which turned out not to be the case. This caused me to conclude that high-income electorates might be hard to poll. Keep that in mind if you were disposed to get excited by this United Voice/ReachTEL result.]
Good point William.
If Dr Dalton is typical of a North Sydney resident, they are unlikely to be at the mansion in Chatswood on the weekend to answer the calls of a robopoll — they’re often out doing something… like hiking the Blue Mountains.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-10/bushwalkers-bupa-blue-mountains-found-in-canyon/5878548
[26% of younger Muslims in America believe suicide bombings are justified.
35% of young Muslims in Britain believe suicide bombings are justified (24% overall).
42% of young Muslims in France believe suicide bombings are justified (35% overall).
22% of young Muslims in Germany believe suicide bombings are justified.(13% overall).
29% of young Muslims in Spain believe suicide bombings are justified.(25% overall).]
Appalling.
And belies the whole “99% of Muslims in our country are peace-loving”, which I used to subscribe to.
This is clearly false and sadly shows we have a long way to go in terms of “Team Australia”.
[AussieAchmed
Posted Tuesday, November 11, 2014 at 6:20 pm | Permalink
Just coz I saw this elsewhere
Pew Research:
26% of younger Muslims in America believe suicide bombings are justified.
35% of young Muslims in Britain believe suicide bombings are justified (24% overall).
42% of young Muslims in France believe suicide bombings are justified (35% overall).
22% of young Muslims in Germany believe suicide bombings are justified.(13% overall).
29% of young Muslims in Spain believe suicide bombings are justified.(25% overall).
Perhaps those who are much in favour of suicide bombings should be provided the opportunity to practice, I’m sure the Army will provide an area]
As an RC child I was, along with millions of other kiddies around the world, inculcated with the wonders of martyrdom.
Now, martyrs have not generally been suicide bombers but the notion of martyrdom itself is, nevertheless at least partly well-understood and well-accepted amongst substantial sections of the Australian population at large.
Coupling martyrdom with militarism also has a very, very rich tradition in the West. Death in the service of Christ was, of course, a short-cut to Heaven for Eternity.
Notice in particular that the VC is the Victoria Cross. That Cross. VC winners who sacrifice their lives are not regarded suicide killers even though many were fairly close to being just that.
We should note that, apart from the ones who flew bombers and wiped out whole suburbs worth of civilians in WW2 (our very own Guy Gibson VC assisted in the deaths of around 1,600 during the Dam Buster thingie), our VC’s suicidal behaviour has usually been directed either at saving their fellows, or at killing enemy soldiers. Sometimes this has involved variations of killing silly fuzzy wuzzies who were defending their homelands with spears against rifles.
The Rourke’s Drift crew did extremely well in the VC department, mainly to cover the how embarrassment of Isandhalwana.
The massacre of Sioux at Wounded Knee also generated a clutch of Congressional Medal of Honour winners. Since most of it was a one-sided (300 Sioux casualties against 15 US Army casualties) hunt to kill women and children this rather rankles amongst the Sioux, even now.
Arguably the few Sioux warriors who were armed and who tried to buy time for their women and kids to escape were (a) suicidal and (b) should have been the ones who were awarded CMHs.
Just to be absolutely clear about this:
I condemn any and every means of killing civilians to terrify the survivors.
I condemn manipulating hapless sods to carry out suicide bombings.
I noticed on the TV just now that an Australian infants school just had a military inculcation exercise.
Readying our very young kiddies for what, exactly?
A mature debate about our endless war which, inter alia, resulted in our national accountability but largely-ignored premature deaths of over a hundred thousand Iraqi children?
Did they talk about that to our little Australian school children?
[BW,
I’d disagree. I was at our office today with a about 150 people in one of those open plan set ups. Normally, the place absolutely hums with chatter and exuberance of some fairly robust personalities doing the sales persons normal business.
An announcement over the internal loud speaker was broadcast at 11am to remind everyone it was Remembrance Day and requesting the observance of a minute’s silence.
The whole place became absolutely silent as people stopped work and bowed their heads or stood in absolute undistracted silence for the minute.
It was really very moving.]
Same occurred in our workplace.
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Tuesday, November 11, 2014 at 6:57 pm | Permalink
BW,
I’d disagree.]
Fair enough. I was not plugged in today. You sound to have been closer to the action.
[AAARRR the NBN
Liberals will bring us yesterdays technology tomorrow]
AA
I was in JBHifi killing time today snd admiring the large, curved screen super HD TVs and the sales person was telling me that Netflix will will distributing Super HD over the broadband networ. He said one would need to be on the NBN to be able to stream it. I retorted “What IS the NBN these days other than a lottery of macro and micr geography?”
He was a goner.
There was a trailer for a documentary on the Western Front last night. Some of you will not be surprised to hear that the war on the Western Front was won because of Australia’s efforts.
The 300,000 french soliders who were killed or wounded in a single month during battles around Charleroi might, were they be around to discuss this proposition, disagree.
BK #82
so the string and jam tins wont cut it…
Even my Liberal friends are p**sed off with the lack of action for a proper 21st Century NBN.
Think of the hours the government will spend trying to download meta data….have I got that right? I’m not all that computer savvy, off/on switch sometimes confuses me
BK
Ah, ‘lottery’. Nice line.
BW
I thought so too, so I just put it on Twitter.
BK
Excellent.
BK
want a couple of otheries?
Who floats like a pig and stings like a butterfly?
Compare and contrast:
Speak softly and carry a big stick.
Shout your silly head off and wave a limp lettuce.
Limp lettuces are very unpleasant.
Hockey vs Abbott/Murdoch:
[The prime minister, Tony Abbott, last week appeared on the front page of the Daily Telegraph calling for the proposed airport at Badgerys Creek to be named after John Bradfield, the civil engineer who oversaw construction of the Sydney Harbour Bridge.
But the treasurer, Joe Hockey, said on Tuesday he believed the airport should honour Lawrence Hargrave, an aeronautical pioneer and inventor. As a compromise, Hockey proposed renaming the wider Badgerys Creek area as Bradfield City…
Abbott floated the idea of “Bradfield Airport” in the inaugural Bradfield Oration, an event organised by the Daily Telegraph.]
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/nov/11/joe-hockey-and-tony-abbott-at-odds-over-naming-of-second-sydney-airport
Of course, in the end, Badgerys Creek will be called Max-the-axe Memorial Airport.
DL
Same comment as for GG @ 81.
I do not condone suicide bombing in any way but these results are no more crazy than some of the polling done on American wingnuts.
RD
[What would likely happen if an Independant candidate gained 60% of first pref votes in each HoR seat?]
An impossible scenario, but should it happen, I’ll be quite excited with glee.
Badgerys Creek will just end being a place where billions of dollars worth of roads finish
Murdoch’s slant on how Abbott shirtfronted / wet lettuced Putin:
[TONY Abbott has confronted Vladimir Putin over the MH17 attack, telling him Russia must fully co-operate with the investigation.
IN a tense 15-minute conversation on the sidelines of the APEC summit in China, the prime minister told the Russian strongman it was incumbent on all countries to respect the UN Security Council resolution on the atrocity.
Mr Abbott said Australia had information that clearly pointed towards Russian involvement in the Ukrainian rebel attack that downed the plane, killing 298 people, including 38 Australians.
The prime minister pointed out that when the US inadvertently shot down a civilian aircraft, it had duly apologised and made appropriate restitution.
He “commended the precedent” to Mr Putin, Australian officials say.]
http://www.news.com.au/world/breaking-news/us-call-for-aus-to-supplement-troops/story-e6frfkui-1227118999799
[The prime minister pointed out that when the US inadvertently shot down a civilian aircraft, it had duly apologised and made appropriate restitution.]
They should read up on the Iranian aircraft the yanks shot down and the wall of bullshit they put up trying to show the Iranians were behaving provocatively and somehow to blame.
According to a Gallup poll in 2013 65 percent of Americans support drone strikes.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/161474/support-drone-attacks-terrorists-abroad.aspx
The targets are chosen in secret by members of the executive branch with no judicial or legislative oversight. The intelligence used to select the targets is often sketchy. The United States government arbitrarily defines all men of military age in the target area as combatants. Kids in some regions of Pakistan and Yemen feel acutely anxious on fine days because drones are dispatched when the sky is clear.
Would you say that Americans are a peace-loving people?
I find suicide bombing abhorrent but then I’ve never had to fear good weather.
Tony Abbott showing no reverence for the Remembrance day fallen. It’s only a minute and you are supposed to think and reflect. Abbott couldn’t even manage that.
https://twitter.com/TaodeHaas/status/532088646828974080/photo/1
BW@83
I always feel the same when Gallipoli is trotted out.
That we lost a lot of good men and women I guess – for nothing really – often obscures the fact that our losses, set against those of the British, French and Turks, pales somewhat.
This is not to denigrate our efforts as a nation….
However, was it in the film “The Man who Shot Liberty Valance” that the classic line “If there is a choice between publishing the truth or the legend, go for the legend on each occasion….” was used to good effect?
I am sure this line was pinched from somewhere else but I don’t know where.
It is interesting to consider that our Anzac Day services from Europe now take in one on the old battlefields of the Western Front as it might have been thought that Gallipoli was all there was to the Australian contribution.
I have a belief, totally without one shred of hard evidence, that the further an existing generation moves from a serious war, the more patriotic they seem to become.
WW1 was the first really major conflict between nations for 50 years and young men “flocked to the call”. “It will all be over by Christmas” stuff. By 1916 it became “we need more men”.
Today, our current young generation – and thankfully my generation – has not seen a world-wide conflict for over 70 years.
The young wrap themselves in the flag, attend Anzac ceremonies and think this is all there is to it.
I am more influenced by the attitude of the play “The One Day of the Year” which showed a healthy cynicism to bathing in a patriotic after glow.