Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Not much doing in Essential Research this week, apart from results showing uneasiness about data retention. Elsewhere, a union-commissioned poll finds Joe Hockey taking a hit in his seat of North Sydney.

Absolutely no change whatsoever in this week’s Essential Research result, except that the “others” reading is up a point to 9% without making any change the other primary votes, because rounding. That means Labor leads 52-48 on two-party while trailing 40% to 38% on the primary vote, with the Greens on 10% and Palmer United on 4%. We also get Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which have Tony Abbott down one on approval to 39% and up two on disapproval to 50%, Bill Shorten up two on both measures to 37% and 38%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 38-32 to 36-34. Further questions are inspired by data retention, the most direct of which finds 41% broadly supportive and 44% broadly opposed. A slight majority indicated a lot or some trust for police and intelligence agencies not to misuse data (53% against 42% for little or no trust), but few did so for private companies. Only 34% expressed support for the AFP using data retention to pursue illegal downloaders, with 47% opposed.

Elsewhere:

• United Voice has commissioned ReachTEL to conduct automated phone polls of the North Sydney (Joe Hockey, Liberal) and McMahon (Chris Bowen, Labor) electorates, by way of promoting its campaign for childcare funding. The full results, including responses to questions on childcare, can be downloaded here. Excluding the undecided, the North Sydney poll has the Liberals on 49% (down 12%), Labor on 34% (up 14%) and the Greens on 13% (down 3%), translating on 2013 preferences to a Liberal two-party vote of 53.7% (down 12.2%). However, the McMahon poll is almost bang on the 2013 election result: Labor 49% (down 2%), Liberal 40% (down 1%) and Greens 4% (up 1%), with Labor’s two-party vote unchanged at 55.3%.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has been rebuked in an Australian National Audit Office report for failing to implement promised improvements to ballot box and polling booth security before the 2013 election, and not doing as much as it claimed to have done to implement the recommendations of the Keelty report following the WA Senate disaster. More from Harley Dennett at The Mandarin.

• South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill has flagged the possibility of Legislative Council reforms, in particular an end to staggered eight-year terms, to be implemented after a referendum.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

587 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. So many examples of how pathetic Abbott is and how unsuited to being our PM that it’s almost hard to pick the standout this week.

    For me, in the last 24 hour media cycle it would have to be the Independent Australian article on the seating arrangements for the memorial service for Gough.

    Petty, vindictive and the trashing protocol are all Abbott trademarks.

    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/abbott-plays-musical-chairs,7080

  2. Tricot

    It would absolutely astonish most Australians that the cheese eating surrender monkeys lost more killed at Gallipoli than did Australia.

  3. raaraa

    [I do not condone suicide bombing in any way but these results are no more crazy than some of the polling done on American wingnuts.]

    The solution is not to import either Muslims nor Americans (of the yanqui variety).

  4. mh

    When the US Neoons want to denigrate the French for not supporting their cover story for Iraq War Two they spent a lot of energy denigrating them, as, inter alia, ‘Cheese-eating surrender monkeys’.

    A person called, curiously enough, Jonah Goldberg stole it off the creator of the Simpsons.

    It caused enormous damage to french-US relations but hey, when are doing massive war stupid in the first place, who gives a stuff?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheese-eating_surrender_monkeys

  5. 96 – the Americans may have prevaricated over the Iranian airliner shooting, but I don’t recall them ever claiming that Saudi Arabia did it.

    On an entirely different topic, the prospect of parliamentary reform in SA is intriguing. The trade-off between having members who are constantly held to account by their electorate, and ones who are able to consider the medium to long term in their decision make because they are *not* constantly campaigning, is an interesting one.

    Personally I think 8 year terms are rather too long, but I can also see the point of not letting the upper house become too fragmented. Perhaps 4 yearly elections, but splitting the state up into some form of districting as happens in Victoria would be appropriate.

  6. Rex

    [What would likely happen if an Independant candidate gained 60% of first pref votes in each HoR seat?]

    It would mean that about 40% of the electorate could have stayed home for all the difference their preferences made.

  7. 108

    That sounds sensible. I would think 3 7-member electorates would produce the best result. Around 22 members would be to many to sensibly have them all up in the same proportional electorate. 3 7-member regions would mean a largely non-Adelaide region and 2 Adelaide regions.

  8. Good to know that not shirtfronting Putin, boots on the ground, and Joe blaming Labor for the coming deficit will create thousands of jobs, revive industries and abolish Global Warming.

    Thank you Tony Abbott. I didn’t vote for you, but I’m glad whoever did, did.

  9. “I am very focused on maintaining economic momentum in Australia in the Christmas period and beyond [so] we are not going to turn our midyear budget into a mini-budget, we are not going to go down the path of trying to make up lost ground immediately,” he said.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/51-billion-budget-black-hole-forecast-wrong-treasurer-joe-hockey-says-20141111-11kioj.html#ixzz3IkqvgeUU

    Joe should look on the bright side. With so much of their actual budget yet to be passed, the govt already has a mini budget of sorts. 😀

  10. [74
    imacca

    …just seems to be a call for an even bigger shovel.]

    Bring in the CAT D9!,

    ordered Foreman Tones,

    we’re gonna get to the bottom of this.

  11. [Rex

    What would likely happen if an Independant candidate gained 60% of first pref votes in each HoR seat?

    It would mean that about 40% of the electorate could have stayed home for all the difference their preferences made.]

    Fran your whole argument on preferences seems to ignore the fact that the second / third / fourth preference start to flow from the bottom of the pile with least first preference votes.

    So yeah under the current system if you are a way out there voter with very few friends it is your preference that is going to matter.

    There is probably better arguments for not distributing votes of people who support such far out positions than there is for not having preferences.

    Presumably because your argument is based on what is good for the greens rather than what is reasonable or fair in a democracy you’d want the option to have preferences …. just not the requirement. You wouldn’t be after first past the post, you don’t like a proper preferential voting system … what a coincidence.

  12. [Former Labor prime minister Julia Gillard has predicted Australia’s carbon pricing and mining taxes will eventually return.]

    She’s probably right about carbon pricing, but I’m not so convinced about a minerals resource tax.

  13. [She’s probably right about carbon pricing, but I’m not so convinced about a minerals resource tax.]

    I am also thinking a proper minerals RRT to complement the PRRT is unlikely but we should do it, it is just stupidity it sell our resources for the least possible price. But apparently it makes sense because we are a federation – absolutely insanely stupid argument but still the best argument against a MRRT.

  14. So Lateline is predicting the end of politics as we know it.

    For the parties its reform or die. From the sounds of the intro its the National Party that will die first.

  15. [
    Posted Tuesday, November 11, 2014 at 10:39 pm | PERMALINK
    So Lateline is predicting the end of politics as we know it.
    For the parties its reform or die. From the sounds of the intro its the National Party that will die first.]

    Did Miss Emma offer any ideas for reforming the Greens and saving themselves from an ageing and elitist membership base?

  16. ESJ, you occasionally make the quite pathetic claim that you’re above partisanship. Were this even remotely true, you’d recognise how utterly stupid you look referring to “the Gillardine”, as if it were clever or funny on some level.

  17. I have seen heaps of “We Want Wayne Back” bumberstickers in both North Sydney and Brisbane.

    Says a lot about the current Treasurer — poor old Joe, talk about a fool’s errand. Abbott has finished him off as a rival.

  18. @KarenMMiddleton: Asked if Tony Abbott had shirt-fronted the Russian President, a Kremlin spokesman is quoted as saying: “lt appears he did not try.” #APEC

  19. “@michaelkoziol: Just 8% of Australians reckon their MP does a good job for the community, according to #lateline report. Ouch if true.”

  20. [I have seen heaps of “We Want Wayne Back” bumberstickers in both North Sydney and Brisbane.]

    I was at a community forum last night. At the end talk turned to the Anzac weekend, which turned to those two brothers the govt invited yet refused to pay their travel to Canberra for, then in turn went to what a joke the govt is. Special mention for Hockey with one old timer semi joking ‘let’s get that Wayne guy back’.

  21. confessions

    I agree. Pretty dire anyway. It shows all parties are going to be under increasing pressure to reform.

    Labor has made a reasonable start. If other parties are reforming we don’t see it as its either not transparent or not reported.

  22. And an entirely independent impartial host. I’d say William as a veteran, you do generally stay neutral with some provisos:

    You allow some people like moi limited latitude to post to stop it becoming an echo chamber of consensus for the left but at the same time you do “signal” to the posters on here that beneath it all your on side.

    Just my opinion, and I may get airbrushed for it but I doubt many of the informed on here would argue this assessment.

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