Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Not much doing in Essential Research this week, apart from results showing uneasiness about data retention. Elsewhere, a union-commissioned poll finds Joe Hockey taking a hit in his seat of North Sydney.

Absolutely no change whatsoever in this week’s Essential Research result, except that the “others” reading is up a point to 9% without making any change the other primary votes, because rounding. That means Labor leads 52-48 on two-party while trailing 40% to 38% on the primary vote, with the Greens on 10% and Palmer United on 4%. We also get Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which have Tony Abbott down one on approval to 39% and up two on disapproval to 50%, Bill Shorten up two on both measures to 37% and 38%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 38-32 to 36-34. Further questions are inspired by data retention, the most direct of which finds 41% broadly supportive and 44% broadly opposed. A slight majority indicated a lot or some trust for police and intelligence agencies not to misuse data (53% against 42% for little or no trust), but few did so for private companies. Only 34% expressed support for the AFP using data retention to pursue illegal downloaders, with 47% opposed.

Elsewhere:

• United Voice has commissioned ReachTEL to conduct automated phone polls of the North Sydney (Joe Hockey, Liberal) and McMahon (Chris Bowen, Labor) electorates, by way of promoting its campaign for childcare funding. The full results, including responses to questions on childcare, can be downloaded here. Excluding the undecided, the North Sydney poll has the Liberals on 49% (down 12%), Labor on 34% (up 14%) and the Greens on 13% (down 3%), translating on 2013 preferences to a Liberal two-party vote of 53.7% (down 12.2%). However, the McMahon poll is almost bang on the 2013 election result: Labor 49% (down 2%), Liberal 40% (down 1%) and Greens 4% (up 1%), with Labor’s two-party vote unchanged at 55.3%.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has been rebuked in an Australian National Audit Office report for failing to implement promised improvements to ballot box and polling booth security before the 2013 election, and not doing as much as it claimed to have done to implement the recommendations of the Keelty report following the WA Senate disaster. More from Harley Dennett at The Mandarin.

• South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill has flagged the possibility of Legislative Council reforms, in particular an end to staggered eight-year terms, to be implemented after a referendum.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

587 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. victoria@976

    Vote compass is apparently representative of the electorate

    I was unconvinced.
    Also, the question about East-West Link was not particularly helpful IIRC.
    Yes, I expect/want it to be built eventually, in some form or other. However, I think there are currently much higher priorities and so too do the experts.
    So how do I answer their question?

  2. bemused

    I dont know who was the person reporting on the vote compass. But he does seem to think that the poll has been weighted to be reflective of voter sentiment. I cant say I am totally convinced either

  9. [ Abbott as international statesman is sure to resurrect his fortunes! ]

    Tried and failed with this before. And no shirt-front at APEC???

    He must be saving his manly macho agro for the G20. 🙂

  10. The 52-48 level seems to be setting in. I wonder what “cunning plan” Abbott’s crew will come up with to try and persuade us they are in fact our best maaates ?

  11. 1

    The East-West Link question also seems to be just about the East-West Link not comparing it to other spending options.

    It was however talking about cancelling the East-West Link, i.e. the Contract, rather than the project in future.

    The East-West Link is a bad idea and should never be built. Building roads, especially in urban areas, encourages more people to drive more. It is a rouge road engineers` folly.

    The question about improved PT spending was more interesting. It showed significant support for cutting road funding to use on PT.

  12. Mr Hockey sought to put pressure on Labor over the deficit saying: “Sooner or later the Labor party needs to understand that they can’t keep whingeing about spending more money, whilst we fail to get the revenue that was anticipated from iron ore exports and coal exports months and a year ago.”.

    From the above I understand Sloppy Jo is presently happy for the Labor party to agitate for increased spending but can see a time “sooner or later” when he thinks the Labor party should stop agitating. Perhaps Jo could tell us when that might be. Would it be in about the same time-frame Hockey promised a budget surplus?

  15. [ Sustainable future
    Posted Tuesday, November 11, 2014 at 3:54 pm | Permalink

    have the Chinese colour-coded guests?

    Red = people we’re OK with
    Blue = people we think are dickheads ]

    Normally at these ‘do’s’ people are offered a choice of colours.

    Interesting though those who went with the bluey sort of colour ?

  17. [The 52-48 level seems to be setting in. I wonder what “cunning plan” Abbott’s crew will come up with to try and persuade us they are in fact our best maaates ?]

    judging from the vic election campaign, they’ll be ably supported by rupert’s propaganda wing. And no doubt well funded by the coal, mining, private health insurance, private health companies and pharmaceutical sectors. Polling of 52-48 is not enough for labor to win.

    because there are no fixed federal terms, abbott will be able to be opportunistic in calling an election. he needs to go early because the economy and his budget are going down. expect him and the media to develop some divisive ‘crisis’ to run on.

  19. 52-48 polling aggregate a bit over a year after losing office is a good outcome for the ALP. And the forecast is for slow growth with a chance of recession.

    I wonder if the ALP will start saying things like “hey that NBN (or renewables sector) would have been handy to promote economic growth post the mining boom – what happened to that?”

  20. [ The 52-48 level seems to be setting in. I wonder what “cunning plan” Abbott’s crew will come up with to try and persuade us they are in fact our best maaates ? ]

    Oh silly poroti!! Dont you know that all they have to do is sell their Budget better??

    Any day now they will release MYEFO and a decade of economic sunshine will ensue for all but those nasty and worthless dole bludgers.

    Chris Bowen will melt away like the wicked witch of the west (not Gina). J Bishop will look adoringly at Tony extolling his virtues as a manly mans statesman.

    The voters will finally come to believe that all the ills of the world and any persistent skin diseases they have are the fault of the evil ALP. Thus shall the polls turn and Shorten start slip sliding away. 🙂

    All this of course based on the principle that they think you can in fact polish a turd IF you freeze it hard enough first.

    Which is the only reason i can think of for them persisting with some of the more unfair and unpopular measures they announced in May. Or perhaps they are just out of touch vindictive morons??

  21. [ 52-48 polling aggregate a bit over a year after losing office is a good outcome for the ALP. And the forecast is for slow growth with a chance of recession. ]

    Also I doubt if less people will think abbott is a dickhead come the next election, or that hockey is competent, etc

  26. Sustainable future@17


    because there are no fixed federal terms, abbott will be able to be opportunistic in calling an election. he needs to go early because the economy and his budget are going down. expect him and the media to develop some divisive ‘crisis’ to run on.

    That’s a good point, running the clock down is not a good strategy for Abbott. I think their preference will be to create a spike in support and snap to an election.

  28. [because there are no fixed federal terms, abbott will be able to be opportunistic in calling an election. he needs to go early because the economy and his budget are going down. expect him and the media to develop some divisive ‘crisis’ to run on.]

    “Early” means closer to his third budget in May 2016. Unless he goes before even that?

  30. Work To Rule@26

    Sustainable future@17


    because there are no fixed federal terms, abbott will be able to be opportunistic in calling an election. he needs to go early because the economy and his budget are going down. expect him and the media to develop some divisive ‘crisis’ to run on.

    That’s a good point, running the clock down is not a good strategy for Abbott. I think their preference will be to create a spike in support and snap to an election.

    Wouldn’t there be a cutoff for the half-senate though? He’s got a majority in the lower house. It’s the Senate where he’s facing problems and an early election wouldn’t see a change of senators anytime sooner.

  31. Boerwar

    This is article you referenced in previous thread from Patrick Smith re James Hird. Spot on I say

    [IT was back, way back, on Feb­ruary 5 last year that James Hird did the honourable thing. He put his hand up and said that as head coach of the Essendon Football Club he took responsibility for a dangerous supplement program used by the club for a little in 2011 and a lot in 2012.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/index.html?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a&mode=premium&dest=http://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/opinion/no-one-is-destroying-james-hirds-reputation-as-well-as-the-man-himself/story-e6frg7uo-1227118777572&memtype=anonymous

  33. No doubt the MSM will trumpet loudly Abbott’s broken promise on the ABC/SBS cuts. “No cuts to the ABC or SBS”.
    Who am i kidding.
    Also had to laugh at Bolt with his latest ABC bias with all it’s pro labor program rant. Next day the ABC announces The Nationals documentary.

  34. On radio in car, heard an economic guru say that Hockey can’t bring down a mini-budget now because it would be an admission of failure, but the Coalition needs to do some hard thinking over the summer break on how to rescue their Budget.

  36. If Abbott wants to call an early election it would need to be a double disollution if he is to have a chance of overcoming his Senate problems.

  38. What’s the point of a mini budget if much of the old is still un legislated? The rate they are going they will have un legislated budgets piling on top of each other.

  41. Re Shellbel @16: The ALP could run Mike Bailey against Joe Hockey again in North Sydney like 2007

    He did have Joe Hockey worried. Joe actually fronted up at Artarmon station early one morning to catch commuters. The Liberals don’t normally bother campaigning much in North Sydney.

    Of course Labor could put up a wombat or a lump of 4 by 2 and I’d vote for it, but my neighbours would not return a Labor member.

    Maybe a high profile, highly regarded figure, preferably with local connections, running as an independent ( or possibly a Green) might unseat Joe. I would vote strategically for such a candidate if they were to the left of the Liberals and otherwise acceptable. It has happened before, e.g. Ted Mack in 1987 ejected some Liberal seat warmer from North Sydney.

  42. Part of the folly of Abbott’s government is they burnt their political capital so early in their term and for pretty much no long term gain.

    Normally, a first term govt can get the senate to be a little more compliant as they fear returning to the polls during a honeymoon period.

    No such concerns with the current senate.

  43. From previous thread, and with reference to this Essential result:

    [861
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    I also think it is driving Abbott bananas that Shorten is not entering the ring, so to speak. Abbott is left to punch himself in the head, which he is doing. Abbott even tried to manufacture an ALP conflict headline by attempting to seat FPMJG next to FPMKR at Goughs memorial. That must mean he is desperate to make the Opposition the story. I counsel to not take strategy as weakness.]

    Agreed. Whatever deficiencies there may be with Shorten Labor, you couldn’t ask much more of them under the circumstances. All they have to do is keep steady, and keep promoting the basic policy program they had before the election. Abbott is doing most of their work for them. He just can’t help himself.

    The last 14 months have confirmed what many already knew, that Abbott doesn’t have what it takes to make the critical transition between opposition and government. Not even Murdoch can ultimately protect Abbott from himself, only delay the inevitable.

  44. 42

    Calling a half-Senate election, at the same time as the House of Reps election, seems, with hindsight, to have been a mistake.

  45. Speaking of the election for North Sydney in 2007, polling conducted before election day suggested Hockey was in big trouble, which turned out not to be the case. This caused me to conclude that high-income electorates might be hard to poll. Keep that in mind if you were disposed to get excited by this United Voice/ReachTEL result.

  48. 46

    Much of it is being held off because it does not have a Senate majority. It is blocking them by threat not by actually blocking them on the chamber floor.

  49. [Hockey is the sort of “I’m the victim” bully who will do anything to evade blame for his mistakes.]

    Yep lizzie. Classic mimophant.

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