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| Green and red numbers respectively indicate size of two-party Nationals and Labor polling booth majorities. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
The electorate of Gippsland has covered the far east of Victoria since federation, and has been in National/Country Party hands since the party was founded in 1922. It currently extends as far westwards as the Latrobe Valley towns of Morwell and Traralgon, other major centres being Sale, Bairnsdale and Lakes Entrance. The Nationals’ hold appeared to be in serious jeopardy for the first time when the redistribution ahead of the 2004 election added Morwell and Traralgon, which had long been accommodated by the electorate’s western neighbour McMillan. However, Labor’s traditional strength in this area has been waning over the past two decades with the decline of its electricity industry, and a realignment among workers with a stake in coal mining resulting from climate change politics. Howard government minister Peter McGauran, who had held the since since 1983, increased his margin by 5.1% at the 2004 election, and the swing against him in 2007 was only 1.8%.
McGauran was the first member of the Howard government to leave parliament after the 2007 election defeat, resulting in a by-election held on 28 June 2008. This produced a three-way contest involving both the Nationals and Liberals as well as Labor, which at the time provided a spur to talk of a coalition merger. After a campaign dominated by the Rudd government’s “alcopops tax” and local concern over the prospect of an emissions trading scheme, the Nationals easily retained the seat, outpolling the Liberals 39.6% to 20.7% and gaining a 6.1% swing on two-party preferred – a surprisingly poor result for Labor given the strength of the Rudd government’s polling at the time. Labor’s primary vote fell 8.1%, and was down particularly heavily at the Latrobe Valley end of the electorate.
Gippsland has since been held for the Nationals by Darren Chester, who had previously been the chief-of-staff to state party leader Peter Ryan. Chester had earlier run unsuccessfully against Craig Ingram, then the independent member for the state seat of Gippsland East, at the 2002 state election, and sought Senate preselection at the 2004 federal election against Peter McGauran’s incumbent brother Julian, who went on to defect to the Liberal Party in January 2006. After his strong win at the by-election, Chester’s margin was little changed at the 2010 election, and he picked up a further 4.4% swing in 2013. Chester was promoted to shadow parliamentary secretary for roads and regional transport after the 2010 election, and became parliamentary secretary to the Defence Minister when the Abbott government came to power in 2013.
Had to Google YMMV. I so badly wanted it to mean You Make Me Vomit.
[The Brazilian wandering spider is normally found in the tropical forests of South America, and has caused 14 reported deaths since 1926.At deadly concentrations, its venom causes loss of muscle control and breathing problems, and can result in paralysis and eventual asphyxiation.
Although its venom is highly toxic, it is being studied for use in erectile dysfunction treatments. The spider’s bite can cause an erection that sometimes lasts for up to four hours.]
Aha, but a bite can kill you in 2!
Dee
[but a bite can kill you in 2!]
I’ll keep my undies on.
Fran Barlow@277
You missed ‘funny’.
Gee Fran, lighten up. PB is sort of like nature, everything has its place in the eco-system. 😉
YMMV …
[ You Make Me Vomit.]
Stuck in my mind now. 😀
[
bemused
Posted Monday, October 20, 2014 at 8:19 pm | Permalink
…
Gee Fran, lighten up. PB is sort of like nature, everything has its place in the eco-system.
]
When it came to the greens that was not center’s view.
Funny, as in “doctor, I have this funny rash.”
frednk@306
LOONs if you please. 😛
[Record-breaking heat in Brazil leaves some of Sao Paulo state’s 44 million residents scrambling for clean water sources.]
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2014/10/water-crisis-squeezes-brazil-sao-paulo-state-20141017215812595820.html
CTar1
A few shoppers in the UK have found them in their bananas. 😯
It’s been 4 weeks since the last national Newspoll, and that was at 51% to 49% 2PP to the ALP, so if the long awaited Newspoll does finally come out tonight, I’m sticking with my prediction made when I thought it would be coming out last Monday night of 52% to 48% 2PP to the ALP.
306
More “Vedre delenda est”.
4 Corners tonight is on the ICE scourge in Victoria with focus on regional areas
guytaur@312
It imposes an enormous burden on the public health system.
What a hoot!
You’d have more sympathy for the SMH if they weren’t printing every jerk of Bachelor Blake genital member, as if it was real news.
I have rarely seen an editorial with such lack of self-awareness, including disparaging references to the “24 hour news cycle”, to which the SMH is a hopelessly addicted junkie.
Dee
[A few shoppers in the UK have found them in their bananas. :shock:]
I’ll blame Tesco (everyone does).
[
The Big Ship
..
52% to 48% 2PP to the ALP.
]
What? Australia is already bored with the war!
If we sell of medibank private we can buy 25 strike fighters; bargain war toys at 1/2 the price.. How do we pay for the rest?
bemused
Yes what happens when organised crime gets to make profit at everyone’s expense. Preying on the vulnerable destroying lives
Had a chat with some ambos the other day.
ICE is a problem, but what they want banned is Red Bull.
Apparently drunks are generally easy to deal with, because they’re sleepy. Alcohol combined with Red Bull gives you a wide awake, hyper drunk – and given that the wide awake, hyper drunk is generally a young man in the prime of his life, they can do an awful lot of damage to themselves and others.
zoomster@318
I think they are right about that but there are other products that are similar. The whole class of products should be banned.
What on earth are these companies thinking when they introduce such products???
On the Brownyn Bishop affair and Peter Garrett’s insulation program, the similairty of the two affairs was a hysterical press scaring the bejesus out the public.
My grandmother at the time was convinced that Brownyn was personally pouring kerosine into baths of the elderly.
Of course, more recently many voters thought Garrett had personally burnt down several houses (his song about burning beds probably didn’t help here).
Our media doesn’t do nuance. It usually favours the Tories, but on this occassion it got one of their own, Bishop B.
I get it now!
BW has simply been parodying an apologist for a racist!
Brilliant stuff. I am a bit slow.
319
$$$!
Former Labor and independent MP has an open letter to the WA treasurer published in the wake of WA losing its AAA credit rating, slipping behind NSW in terms of the country’s leading economy, and the budget deficit seemingly as a result of treasury and former treasurers failing to account for an end to the boom.
Nahan is a former IPA hack, and as the links in the letter indicate, like many of his IPA brethren wasn’t backward in coming forward in dispensing advice to governments about balancing the budget and providing fiscal advice more generally. The author is more than happy to refresh his memory by referencing his own writing back at him. 😆
[But enough of that; the upside for taxpayers is that you know what needs to be done – after all, you have been telling governments how to fix these things for years.
Mike, remember all those Institute of Public Affairs papers about smaller government being better; how lower taxes stimulate economies and how privatisation can lift the level of service and lower costs?
Well, champ, now is the time for you to step up and put it all into action.
It wasn’t so hard when your mob were writing those papers, so it shouldn’t be difficult for you to implement your own suggestions and you could start by privatising the electricity system.
Better than most, you understand that if you set up a genuinely competitive market place, it will work to hold down electricity costs. Even better the government will no longer have to bail out the “bloated” energy utilities that it owns.
Those utilities are eating up taxpayers’ money and if you sold them you would probably get $8-10 billion. You better get on with it because, every year you delay the inevitable, the price goes down.
Read more: http://www.watoday.com.au/comment/larry-graham-what-mike-nahan-can-do-to-fix-was-finances-20141020-118fpj.html#ixzz3Gg4QSZSF ]
zoomster 318
I’m convinced that the problem with alcohol violence is not the alcohol itself but the fact that caffeinated drinks like Red Bull, Monster, etc being used as a mixer.
Alcohol by itself tend to make people sleepy or at least just outwardly uninhibited, but not aggressive IMO
Don’t get me wrong, I have no love for the liquor industry and has been a teetoler for 3 years now.
‘fess
I thought it never rained in the south of WA.
[The Prime Minister’s chief of staff Peta Credlin has established a network of female staffers within the government so that they can “support each other” and maximise their exposure to other women in leadership roles.
The Coalition Women’s Staff Network will be launched by Prime Minister Tony Abbott next Wednesday evening. Women’s Weekly editor Helen McCabe will also address the event.
While there are many forums for Liberal party women to discuss ideas with each other, none previously existed for women staffers in the government.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/peta-credlin-establishes-womenonly-network-to-support-government-staffers-20141020-118vhs.html#ixzz3Gg5jnGa8 ]
Some observations:
1. I think this is a great idea. There’s a lot of latent misogyny and sexism in politics, and one of the ways women who work in the sector can rally against it is by banding together as a force.
2. Change the name however, and make it cross party, more universal effort to support all women in the sector.
3. I don’t know McCabe’s background other than as a journalist and AWW editor, but I’m assuming she is addressing the event because she has some experience as a staffer herself?
Raaraa@324
Alcohol just makes me go to sleep too. I am a happy and sleepy drinker. Others, not so much.
But caffeinated drinks are a relatively new invention.
There was alcohol fuelled violence before there was red bull. For particular people, I guess, based on personal (non) experience.
CTar:
Sorry, not sure if you’re referring to our recent weather, or Barnett’s run of bad fortune.
No government can prevent every act of irresponsibility by contractors. That’s the main comment to make about the home insulation fires and deaths. The paradox is that conservatives, who claim to extol personal responsibility and the limitations of government, blamed the federal government for the negligence of a small number of contractors.
On science
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/brian-cox/5825906
don@327
I am like you Don.
I think some of the differences in response to alcohol is caused by factors such as type of drink, rate of consumption and the environment in which it is consumed.
I think spirits are the worst, beer and wine not so bad.
Anyone who drinks in an angry and aggressive mindset is headed for trouble.
Dee
More of the professor on QandA tonight
‘fess
I was thinking of water from the sky …
But either works.
Nicholas@329
That wouldn’t be the same conservatives who want to reduce red-tape such as OH&S would it? 😮
Oh well, they never said they would be consistent and coherent in anything.
don @327
I recall alcohol violence still happened before the whole caffeinated mixers become popular, but I think this trend might have something to do with it being more widespread. I’ve got no data to back myself up here.
Seeing the Four Corners report with this lady on ice is rather disturbing. I’ve friends who used cannabis and ecstasy (MDMA) and have outgrown them but this is nothing like it.
CTar:
Okey dokey. 🙂
Some farmers are still unhappy though – apparently the hail damaged their about to be harvested crop, ruining a season’s worth. Reinforces that you can’t always please everyone.
[260
CTar1
briefly
…genuflects with enough sincerity…
Not chipping at you.
For my parents generation an introduction of him into conversation always got the full title on first mention.]
…no problem. he was greatly revered in my family too…:)
Thanks Guytaur!
I wanted to take the eldest grandson to his show in Brissie.
Cox is very good at communicating science with the young.
“@senatormilne: RET secretariat failed to explain why Warburton ignored requirement to make recommendations for lower electricity prices. 1/2#estimates”
“@senatormilne: Instead Warburton recommends shift to lower RET which improves coal fired generators values by $9.3billion. Disgraceful! 2/2 #estimates”
Somehow I doubt the reason the Brits call Stella Artois “wife beater” is because the brewer is sneaking caffeine and cane sugar into the bottles.
Alcohol fuels violence because it lowers the inhibitions of the violence. The rise in binge drinking culture certainly has contributed to the number of violently inclined patrons lowering their inhibitions sufficiently to engage in violence, but it hasn’t caused the effect in the first place.
The only influence caffeine and sugar in mixers has is that it keeps you awake long enough to drink more.
Had a quick look through the green paper on Agriculture.
The ‘100 dams’ appear to have dwindled to about thirty water infrastructure projects.
Interestingly, only one of those is in Victoria. (Despite our area being ‘promised’ a dam under the scheme by Mirabella).
There doesn’t seem to be an explanation for this, so I don’t know if Victoria doesn’t need water infrastructure, whether it won’t cough up cash to help fund it, or what.
The West has been promoting its ‘special feature’ on methamphetamine use in Perth the past few days.
http://feature.thewest.com.au/methcity/
Not that it’s especially informative, but still.
zoomster:
This week is apparently National Water Week according to the BoM, just FYI. 🙂
Bad drunks have been around forever…
Good point. Personal responsibility, limitations of government, reducing regulations – three principles which conservatives abandoned when they savaged the Rudd Government for the failures of a small number of contractors.
I wonder if the Prime Minister could have dealt with the issue this way: Express great sorrow for the deaths; organize swift and generous ex gratia payments for the families; pursue the contractors legally and emphasize that in any society there will always be a few irresponsible people who put greed ahead of safety; emphasize the number of homes whose installations were done without a hitch; quantify the long term energy savings of those households; repeat the number of jobs saved because of the well-proportioned, well-targeted and well-timed government program.
Nicholas@345
Why treat those industrial deaths different to any others?
Processes such as coronial inquests and the courts were in place already to deal with such occurrences.
Tonight’s Q&A is going to blow some minds, mine included.
Nicholas
apart from the ex gratia payments – a silly idea, setting dangerous precedents – I think all of those things were done.
For the PM to get involved directly (beyond an expression of sorrow, perhaps) would also be unwise.
There are deaths every day which (if you applied the same ‘rules’ applied to pink batts) could be slated home to the government.
Under your scenario, the guy would spend his whole day issuing apologies.
‘fess
[ apparently the hail damaged their about to be harvested crop]
It’s that time of year when splendid hopes can be dashed.
Bad drunks and drunken violence are nothing new, I agree.
My point was that the ambos volunteered that Red Bull in the mix created a different (and more dangerous) scenario than ones encountered previously (but hey, what would they know?)