|Green and red numbers respectively indicate size of two-party Nationals and Labor polling booth majorities. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.|
The electorate of Gippsland has covered the far east of Victoria since federation, and has been in National/Country Party hands since the party was founded in 1922. It currently extends as far westwards as the Latrobe Valley towns of Morwell and Traralgon, other major centres being Sale, Bairnsdale and Lakes Entrance. The Nationals’ hold appeared to be in serious jeopardy for the first time when the redistribution ahead of the 2004 election added Morwell and Traralgon, which had long been accommodated by the electorate’s western neighbour McMillan. However, Labor’s traditional strength in this area has been waning over the past two decades with the decline of its electricity industry, and a realignment among workers with a stake in coal mining resulting from climate change politics. Howard government minister Peter McGauran, who had held the since since 1983, increased his margin by 5.1% at the 2004 election, and the swing against him in 2007 was only 1.8%.
McGauran was the first member of the Howard government to leave parliament after the 2007 election defeat, resulting in a by-election held on 28 June 2008. This produced a three-way contest involving both the Nationals and Liberals as well as Labor, which at the time provided a spur to talk of a coalition merger. After a campaign dominated by the Rudd government’s alcopops tax and local concern over the prospect of an emissions trading scheme, the Nationals easily retained the seat, outpolling the Liberals 39.6% to 20.7% and gaining a 6.1% swing on two-party preferred a surprisingly poor result for Labor given the strength of the Rudd government’s polling at the time. Labor’s primary vote fell 8.1%, and was down particularly heavily at the Latrobe Valley end of the electorate.
Gippsland has since been held for the Nationals by Darren Chester, who had previously been the chief-of-staff to state party leader Peter Ryan. Chester had earlier run unsuccessfully against Craig Ingram, then the independent member for the state seat of Gippsland East, at the 2002 state election, and sought Senate preselection at the 2004 federal election against Peter McGauran’s incumbent brother Julian, who went on to defect to the Liberal Party in January 2006. After his strong win at the by-election, Chester’s margin was little changed at the 2010 election, and he picked up a further 4.4% swing in 2013. Chester was promoted to shadow parliamentary secretary for roads and regional transport after the 2010 election, and became parliamentary secretary to the Defence Minister when the Abbott government came to power in 2013.
370 comments on “Seat of the week: Gippsland”
[It’s that time of year when splendid hopes can be dashed.]
Sure is. Difference now is that WA farmers have a federal govt which doesn’t have its interests in its sights. But, chances of farmers waking up and smelling which side their toast is buttered and voting accordingly? Unlikely.
I did, by the way, pick up one mention of climate change in the 173 page green paper on agriculture.
There might have been another one in there that I missed..
A new study on Gertrude Stein and Alice B Toklas
A fascinaing study(see below) by a US historian looks at two of the key figures of the Paris Literary/Art scene in the ’20/30/40ies ….has made starting findings on the close ties these two major literary figures made with the pro-nazi Vichy regime from 1940,and their ,links with a man called Bernard Foy,who was an anti secularist/ royalists,and ,right-winger in the Nazi period,and worked to help the Nazis to attack Free-Masons,who were secular and mostly on the left(Foy had written a book on them)
Oddly many post-war writers on Stein and Toklas(famed for her cookbook), and even a major biographer,in a book called “Charmed Circle ” … overlooked or didn’t know of the collaborationst phase of their wartime life in occupied France(they were both American and Jewish,which makes it all the more surprising)
Though Picasso who knew them well later said that Stein “was always a fascist”
They are portrayed recently in Woody Allen’s delightful film “Midnight in Paris”,,,when the young male hero goes to one of the literary studies at their apartment
Possibly ‘mentioned’ rather than ‘revered’ would suit him better.
A top ten Australian .
Re Gertrue Stein and Vichy
My Newspoll prediction
50:50, +1 or -1 either way, more likely with the COALition ahead.
So I suppose that comes down to 49:50 COAL ahead.
Best Q&A I’ve seen. Maybe they should leave the politicians out more often.
Why do they always include a couple of lightweights who add nothing?
I think NewsPoll is playing mind games with us 🙂
“@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (-2) ALP 53 (+2) #auspol”
“@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll Primary Votes: L/NP 38 (-3) ALP 34 (0) GRN 14 (+3) #auspol”
“@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll Abbott: Approve 38 (-3) Disapprove 53 (+1) #auspol”
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 34s34 seconds ago
#Newspoll Primary Votes: L/NP 38 (-3) ALP 34 (0) GRN 14 (+3) #auspol]
the Burqa BellyFlop
I didn’t mind the two entertainers along with the heavyweights. I suppose they were there to be ‘everyman’/woman, the common touch. They said what they thought, no pretentions.
53-47 ALP? Da eff?
apart from the ex gratia payments – a silly idea, setting dangerous precedents – I think all of those things were done.
That was the first time the Rudd ‘glow’ started to dim for me.