The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to trend the Coalition’s way, to the extent that it reaches two milestones this week: parity with Labor on two-party preferred, and an absolute majority on the seat projection, albeit by the barest of margins. Three new polls were added to the national figures, those being Galaxy, the regular weekly Essential Research, and the fortnightly Morgan (fortnightly in the sense of publication, although the poll is conducted on a weekly basis). Also out this week was the Newspoll quarterly aggregates, which have been factored into the state breakdowns, along with the regular state breakdowns from Morgan (published) and Essential (unpublished). The combined effect is to add seat each to the Coalition tally in New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia, while removing one in Victoria and Tasmania.
The quarterly Newspoll is a big deal for BludgerTrack, which is never better serviced for state data than it is immediately after being fed with three months’ worth of state-level Newspoll results. To this end, later today I will get around to publishing my own detailed quarterly state breakdowns for BludgerTrack, the previous instalment of which can be seen here.
BludgerTrack is still in the position of being slightly more favourable to the Coalition than any single published poll result, due to a variety of factors. Perhaps this could be best explained if I run through each of the pollsters:
Nielsen of course closed up shop a few months ago, which was significant in that BludgerTrack deemed it to be the most Coalition-friendly pollster, and the only one which adjusted for any substantial bias to that effect. Now that it’s gone, the model has a clear tendency to skew to the right of what a straight polling average would tell you.
Newspoll is rated as neutral by the model, but it hasn’t reported for a fortnight. When it did report, it gave Labor a 51-49 lead when the primary vote numbers looked a lot more like 50-50. It’s the primary votes that BludgerTrack goes off, so this was a 50-50 poll as far as the model was concerned. Clearly Labor got rounded up in the Newspoll result – it follows that they also got rounded down in BludgerTrack.
Galaxy is taken very seriously by BludgerTrack, and receives next to no bias adjustment at all. This week it gave Labor a lead of 51-49, although putting its rounded primary votes into the model produces a result of 50.6-49.4 going off 2013 preferences (as BludgerTrack does). If not for this poll, the Coalition would have moved into the lead.
ReachTEL’s last poll a fortnight ago had Labor leading 51-49, and BludgerTrack adjusts this pollster slightly in favour of the Coalition.
Morgan is reckoned to have the biggest bias in the game, that being in favour of Labor. Its result on respondent-allocated preferences this week was 51.5-48.5 in favour of Labor, but the more telling point so far as BludgerTrack is concerned is that it was the Coalition’s best result since February.
Essential is noted for being slow to respond to changes, and for this reason, BludgerTrack treats its bias in a unique way, by dynamically adjusting it according to how its deviates from the model over time. Since it’s stayed stuck with Labor on the cusp of leading 52-48 or 53-47, while the other pollsters have moved to the Coalition, a Labor bias adjustment is increasingly being factored into its results.
The other development in BludgerTrack this week is that Morgan published a set of phone poll numbers on leadership ratings, and they were relatively very rosy for Tony Abbott, who wasn’t too far off parity on net approval and had a pretty solid lead on preferred prime minister. This has a pretty sharp effect on the BludgerTrack leadership ratings, which aren’t exactly spoiled for data and are always pretty sensitive to the most recent result, even if the poll in question was from a rather small sample, as was the case here.
UPDATE: As promised, here are the detailed state-level breakdowns featuring primary vote numbers and charts tracking the progress of the primary and two-party votes in each state. Crikey subscribers may enjoy my analysis of these results in today’s email, assuming it gets published.
I also promised two weeks ago that I was going to start tracking betting odds in these mid-week BludgerTrack posts, then forgot about it last week. Now that I’ve remembered again, I can inform you that there has been movement to the Coalition over the part fortnight in Centrebet’s federal election odds, with the Coalition in from $1.50 to $1.45 and Labor out from $2.55 to $2.70. Centrebet’s price on Campbell Newman being re-elected in Queensland has also shortened from $1.36 to $1.28, with Labor out from $3.15 to $3.65. There has been a very slight move to Labor for the Victorian election, with Labor in from $1.23 to $1.22 and the Coalition out from $4.00 and $4.10 – which sounds a bit generous to Labor for mine. The Betfair market evidently thinks so, as it has the Coalition in from $4.10 to $3.40 and Labor out from $1.48 to $1.59.
Post 839 Loise Prtatt Baby
___________
Wow !!! it must be a quiet news day in the West when all we have in the way of news is somone’s baby
[deblonay
Posted Saturday, October 11, 2014 at 3:06 pm | Permalink
Do the Americans every get anything right in the Middle East
one disaster after another….but due to the rise in US oil production,there has been no rise in oil/petrol prices,unlike ther such crisis times]
Fair suck of the sauce bottle. The $64 question is whether anyone ever gets anything right in the Middle East.
…I will add, too, that the social aspect of committees and conferences is also very important, and overlooked when people talk of using technology to ‘solve’ these problems.
Party conferences get all the party bigwigs in one place at one time, which makes them accessible to ordinary branch members in a way nothing else does. (For example, the recent women’s conference I attended allowed me to bounce an idea off a dozen MPs and Senators, with a directness I couldn’t get through other forms of communication).
Branch meetings are similar – the most important part of the branch meeting is after the business of the meeting has been dealt with, when we get to talk to each other.
I do know branches which have tried to get branch members together for social gatherings, on the theory that that’s what’s important – but for some reason (the psychology of which escapes me), they don’t get the same numbers as a branch meeting does.
As someone who never believed the Liberal spin of a “carbon tax”, I have to say I find this message from Shorten very confusing. But perhaps it’s the only thing he can say, under the circumstances.
[Labor will not bring a carbon tax to the next election but a market mechanism is still the best way of dealing with emissions, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten says.
While urging the government to address China’s recently introduced tariff on Australian coal, Mr Shorten said the Australian people had spoken on the carbon tax at the last election, which saw Labor lose office.
“We will not have a carbon tax, the Australian people have spoken and Labor is not going to go back to that,” Mr Shorten told reporters in Sydney on Saturday.
Fairfax Media earlier reported Mr Shorten had confirmed Labor would take a carbon price, although not a tax, to the election.
“Labor doesn’t support a carbon tax, but in terms of real and effective action on climate change I do support a market-based system to set a price and that’s where the rest of the world’s going,” Mr Shorten told Fairfax.
On Saturday he said it was “important we use the market … to help set a priority in terms of tackling climate change.
“So we will have a sensible policy on climate change. We do want to tackle carbon pollution, but we won’t be going back to what you saw in the past.”]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-says-labor-wants-to-tackle-carbon-pollution-but-rules-out-return-of-carbon-tax-20141011-114nmp.html#ixzz3Fo7CnduC
v
Clark admitted later that he may have met Bushfire Bill at an event they both attended but that the could not recall any specifics of any conversations they may have had. Clark denied categorically dating Bushfire Bill or engaging in telepathy with him.
In other good news, note the typo in the text from the article, below:
“There are a range of scenarios that woud fit the data, v
[it’s just that some are more likely than others and there is a high probablity that the aircraft will be found close to the ark,” Mr Dolan said.]
At last! Not only MH370 but the ark as well. It does leave open whether that be Noah’s ark or the ark of the covenant.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/mh370-emirates-airlines-head-tim-clark-says-missing-plane-was-under-control-probably-until-the-very-end-20141011-114llv.html#ixzz3Fo7p3Fnz
Paul McGeough in The Age looks at the spread of wars in the islamic world …from Libya to Pakistan…and its implication for the whole world…and t..he folly of “Boys Own” type western leaders like Abbott who see only military solutions and ignore other implications
http://www.theage.com.au/world/the-world-has-misread-the-middle-east-nightmare-and-our-war-without-borders-20141010-1143jt.html
lizzie
Carbon tax is fixed price. Any confusion remaining is due to the LNP trying to change the dictionary definition of tax and the media letting him get away with it.
him=them
Monckton upholds every single RightWing cause…anti-abortion/anti-Euro/anti-climate change…anti evrything…and is a darling our right-wingers…People like Bolt and Jones love his nonsese..and the doubtful claims to membership of the House of Lords,and as a past advisor to Thatcher
Boerwar
[Clark admitted later that he may have met Bushfire Bill at an event they both attended but that the could not recall any specifics of any conversations they may have had. Clark denied categorically dating Bushfire Bill or engaging in telepathy with him.]
🙂
M. is a Birther as well.
But, on the positive side, he has cured AIDs and is a Nobel Laureate.
guytaur
I perfectly understand the “fixed price” thing. I agree that the MSM did the world a disservice by hanging on to Abbott’s coat-tails over this.
[M. is a Birther as well.]
Fully subscribing to the kooky conspiracy that Obama is a Kenyan national is consistent with flatly refusing to accept the scientific reality of AGW.
Can this be true?
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/variety/2014/09/12/UK-female-jihadists-run-ISIS-sex-slave-brothels.html
[Startling details have surfaced of British female jihadists forcing captured Iraqi women into sexual slavery at brothels run by militants of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), British media reported Thursday.
The Brothels, operated by the female “police force” called the al-Khanssaa Brigade, have been set up for the use of ISIS militants, according to the Daily Mirror.
Thousands of Iraqi women have already been forced into sex slavery at the brothels , with as many as 3,000 women and girls been taken captive from the Yazidi tribe in Iraq over the course of the militants’ offensive across the region, according to the daily.]
guytaur
I am so pleased to hear that over a million has been raised.
I watched all of their shows all week and donated last night.
Those complaining about the ABC all the time on here are missing something.
Great of the other networks to join in as well!
It was a massive effort from a lot of people.
briefly
The pattern of of the articles in al-Arabiya seems to be pro-Iran and pro-Shia.
That said, the language is restrained and claims are referenced.
Boerwar is someone who plonks well, which is only to be expected as he is an expert on everything.
IF you think differently to Boerwar, no matter how senior or experienced you are, then you are simply wrong in every aspect.
Perhaps BW should run Emirates Airlines? Or find the lost plane himself? Or sit on Bluey and end the plonking once and for all?
BB
I am booked on Emirates for a flight later in the year. It is a worry when their el supremo says things like that without a skerrick of back-up. You have to wonder what sort of seat of the pants Emirates really is.
If Clark really knows something that the rest of us do not, (which may well be the case given his networks) why does he not come out with it?
He also claims that there is something wrong with the technical assessments. He should explain why. The relevant data is available to anyone who wants to have a go at it.
If he can’t or won’t do either, he may or may not be a drinker of cheap wine.
But, with his seniority and experience and knowledge, etc, etc, etc, he should know one thing, he needs to put up a bit more than the absence of seat cushions.
[Where is the intellect? Is this as good as it gets? Surely Australia deserves better?
OCTOBER 6, 2014 BY VINCE O’GRADY]
http://vinceogrady.wordpress.com/2014/10/06/where-is-the-intellect-is-this-as-good-as-it-gets-surely-australia-deserves-better/
[If he can’t or won’t do either, he may or may not be a drinker of cheap wine.]
BW, you’re no better than the Climate Science denialists who think they know everything about every subject and that experts in the field are on the take compared to such luminaries as Lord Monckton or Alan Jones.
In the case of Clark you simply assert he is a drunk and must be running a dodgy airline.
Clark is expressing doubt. He is an extremely senior airline executive with great experience and clearly great intelligence to get to his position. Presumably he’s talked with other people about this, as his airline flies in the Indian Ocean area (among others) and would have at its disposal routine access to experts who have more knowledge in the fingernail clippings that you have in your entire bloated opinion of yourself.
You can only suggest that he is drunk on cheap wine because he moves outside the square a little. What arrogance on your part. People who don’t share BW’s view must be drunks is the pretty clear message.
The evidence he is doubting has so far produced ZERO results.
One would think that if the evidence was reliable or had a lot of validity they might have found something by now, after thousands of hours of searching. You give no reason for saying that doubting it is the result of Clark’s drunkenness, you just assert it.
Then you say you’re getting concerned about flying on his airline. Go ahead, swim if you want to, or take another airline.
Do you really think Clark would give a shit what you do?
I wonder if any of the bludgers who mainly access this blog through an iPad have figured out how to get the less ugly and clunky version of the site that appears when you use a PC/Laptop?
Anyone know?
871
Fran Barlow
Fran, I sometimes read PB on mobile. The screen is the “list version” – very unappealing to the eye and awkward to use. At the bottom of that screen – last line – there is a tag for “the usual screen” or wtte. Clicking that will bring up the usual browser page. oth, I don’t use an ipad, so am not sure if that will work for you…
BB
[You can only suggest that he is drunk on cheap wine because he moves outside the square a little. What arrogance on your part. People who don’t share BW’s view must be drunks is the pretty clear message.]
Oh dear… ‘Plonks’, ‘plonker’, drinker of cheap wine, get it?
He reckons the plane was ‘under control until the end’. On what basis? He should put up or shut up. He reckons he is totally dissatisfied. If so, he should (a) say what is wrong with the current interpretations of the data and, while he is at it, (b) put up a more credible alternative based on his interpretation of the available data to the blowtorch.
This guy is not your random Bludger poster.
He is the head of a major international airline.
Having stated that he is ‘totally dissatisfied’ about the bases underpinning a search costing tens of millions of dollars, he should put up.
He might be right. Who knows? But he needs to put up a bit more than a gut feel.
[866
Boerwar
briefly
The pattern of of the articles in al-Arabiya seems to be pro-Iran and pro-Shia.
That said, the language is restrained and claims are referenced.]
Al-arabiya is nutritionally rich compared with the Tip-Top sandwich loaf in which we usually subsist….
The Persians do deserve closer attention. It’s a pity that L-line, Q&A et al have been giving them the North Korean treatment.
Luke
{Fran your post 801 – best thing I have ever read on Poll Bludger, true wisdom.]
I’m glad you found it stimulating, notwithstanding the typos.
🙂
I’m not sure it’s ‘true wisdom’ but it’s lovely that you should find it so.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/princeton-experts-say-us-no-longer-democracy
[A new study from Princeton spells bad news for American democracy—namely, that it no longer exists.
Asking “(w)ho really rules?” researchers Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page argue that over the past few decades America’s political system has slowly transformed from a democracy into an oligarchy, where wealthy elites wield most power.
Using data drawn from over 1,800 different policy initiatives from 1981 to 2002, the two conclude that rich, well-connected individuals on the political scene now steer the direction of the country, regardless of or even against the will of the majority of voters.]
https://newmatilda.com/2014/10/08/tables-turn-australian-federal-police-probe-morrison-and-staff-over-leak
[The Minister for Immigration is being investigated by the Australian Federal Police over a leak about a leak. Max Chalmers reports.
In a strange twist, the Greens have asked the Australian Federal Police to investigate whether the Minister for Immigration or his staff leaked privileged information to a journalist – who then used it to write a story about the Australian Federal Police investigating Save the Children employees for leaking privileged information.]
875
Fran Barlow
It’s certainly beautifully expressed, typos and all.
briefly
Yep.
Thanks briefly.
You may well suppose that, given my politics, I’ve had ‘nogoid alternative’ over the years but to reflect on the matter. Moreover, as a teacher, this is a question that shoves its face into mine on a daily basis.
😉
This is, in part, why I have long moved past hating those I see insisistently being malfeasant. One may be disgusted or appalled, as when one sees an error and witnesses the resultant mess. The results are ugly and distressing.
Yet one also knows that if the world is imperfectly configured then that very thing predisposes malfeasance and so when people manifest it, it’s both a cause of new harm and an expression of human damage. If you believe that, then hating is not just pointless and counterproductive, but paradoxical.
Let us use these folk as cautionary tales and account patiently for what people forfeit when they allow others to act unaccountably on their behalf. Let us remind people that if they have any purpose at all they can only hope to find it by exploring their possibility and that journey is one that is best made in the company of others also making it.
I recall reading a proverb that said “if you want to go fast, go alone, but if you want to go a long way, bring friends.”
That seems apt.
🙂
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/profiles/2014/10/10/Disillusioned-Syrian-woman-reveals-life-in-ISIS.html
Interesting glimpse into a life-story…is this tabloid terror, Dubai-style?
Launched on 3 March 2003, The channel is based in Dubai Media City, United Arab Emirates, and is majority-owned by Saudi broadcaster Middle East Broadcasting Center (MBC).
General manager of Al Arabiya is Abdulrahman Al Rashed. A free-to-air channel, Al Arabiya carries news, current affairs, business and financial markets, sports, talk shows, and documentaries. It is rated by the BBC among the top pan-Arab stations by Middle East audiences. The channel has been criticized for having a “pro-Saudi agenda”, and it was once banned in Iraq by the US-installed Governing Council for “incitement to murder” for broadcasting audio tapes of Saddam Hussein.
On 26 January 2009, American president Barack Obama gave his first formal interview as president to the television channel]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Arabiya
[Al Arabiya was started in response to Qatar’s pan-Arab satellite channel Al Jazeera, but has languished behind in audience popularity surveys, according to reports by University of Maryland professor Shibley Telhami. Al Arabiya has been criticized for being an arm of Saudi foreign policy, or what the United States would term public diplomacy, as it is seen as being part of “a concerted Saudi attempt to dominate the world of cable and satellite television media in the Arab world and steal the thunder of Egypt”.]
briefly
OK. That makes two strikes out for me… if it is pro Saudi it can’t be pro Iran and it can’t be pro Shia.
Fran, I agree with you. On hate, no matter how much revulsion one may feel, and no matter the retribution one may want to dish out, hatred is a form of bondage. Electing to be free really requires us to dispense with hate.
The “nogoid” has assumed a visual form in my imagination, become a puzzle, a knot. I really like it. I’d like to borrow it for a while… 🙂
[883
Boerwar]
This invokes the old (and possibly cliched) Arab saying about how the enemy of ones enemy can be a friend, even if they are your enemy too…
The situation is very complex.
Briefly
[Fran, I sometimes read PB on mobile. The screen is the “list version” – very unappealing to the eye and awkward to use. At the bottom of that screen – last line – there is a tag for “the usual screen” or wtte. Clicking that will bring up the usual browser page. oth, I don’t use an ipad, so am not sure if that will work for you…]
You are a genius. “switch to our standard site” at the bottom of the page worked when I clicked on it. Thanks!
briefly
[The “nogoid” has assumed a visual form in my imagination, become a puzzle, a knot. I really like it. I’d like to borrow it for a while… ]
ah, serendipity! There’s nothing quite like it. 🙂
You could write a self-help, political pamphlet or spy thriller called The Nogoid Alternative.
[886
Fran Barlow]
prego
briefly
[Fran, I agree with you. On hate, no matter how much revulsion one may feel, and no matter the retribution one may want to dish out, hatred is a form of bondage. Electing to be free really requires us to dispense with hate.]
Indeed. Honouring the legitimate claims of all i.e justice is the best ‘retribution’. To heal injuries and build authentic communities where once there was misery honours the injured respects the future and fosters the possibility dormant within us all.
[887
Fran Barlow]
Maybe it can be applied optimistically. The “nogoid” can become open-sourced re-thinking, a brush with the unexpected, as you suggest. The pleasure and beauty of new thought.
[889
Fran Barlow]
Yes, this is your personal anthem, I suspect.
[871
Fran Barlow
Posted Saturday, October 11, 2014 at 5:09 pm | PERMALINK
I wonder if any of the bludgers who mainly access this blog through an iPad have figured out how to get the less ugly and clunky version of the site that appears when you use a PC/Laptop?
Anyone know?
]
Try using Chrome
Also, at the bottom of the dodgy looking site is a link to Use Full Web Site or wtte
If you click this enough times, it becomes the default and overrides the “responsive design” WordPress theme which thinks your iPad is a smartphone
Has bushfire bill left? Pity, I was looking forward to his next instalment.
That post of yours was beautifully written Fran. By the way I think the a ovoid was in Episode 14 of Star Treck Original 🙂
I go out to mow the lawns, come back and find Professor Of Everything, Boerwar plonking again.
He sets the rules by which ideas may be exchanged, and sadly Mr Clark, head of one of the world’s biggest airlines does not come up to the BW Standard.
No wreckage found at all. Not even a life jacket strap or a floating plastic cup. Probably millions of man hours spent searching and hundreds of millions of dollars.
The CEO of an airline, who might be expected to have a little savvy in these matters sadly does not pass the BW Test. He should do this. He should prove that. He should propose something-or-other else. Or else he is dismissed as a drinker of cheap wine and on the sauce because BW has decreed it.
The man never said he KNEW what happened to the plane. He just said that the theory so far has come up with a big fat zero and that maybe – just maybe – something else other than BW’s Comprehensive Theory Of Everything might have happened to it.
Note that BW doesn’t put up any ideas himself. He knows f*ck all about it, so why should he? Yet when someone fairly knowledgeable about commercial airliners (and presumably what happens when they crash into the sea, i.e. wreckage is spotted) expresses some doubt about the official version of events, an official version that has produced precisely no clues or results yet, in plonks BW with his casual denunciations and drunkenness allegations. It’s not just anyh old wine Mr Clark has been drinking. It’s cheap wine. You’d have to be drunk to try to fool BW.
If I was BW I wouldn’t go anywhere near Emirates Airlines. He might end up being plonked into the Indian Ocean himself, care of a pilot full of cheap wine, and then we wouldn’t have the pleasure of hearing his erudite opinions on all those things he doesn’t know shit (but is unerringly correct) about anyway.
Gawd I hate spell correction at times The Nogoid was in episode 14 etc.
Luke Hulm@829
It was indeed remarkable and revealed a new aspect of Fran.
[I recall Anatole France saying:
All changes, even the most longed for, have their melancholy; for what we leave behind us is a part of ourselves; we must die to one life before we can enter another.]
So which other dead people does Fran hear?
What else do they tell her?
zoomster@849
I doubt the ALP budget for such things would extend beyond Skype or Viber.
And nothing can take the place of personal interactions face to face.
It has been announced that SA Independent MP for the seat of Fischer Bob Such died earlier.
Fran Barlow@871
I use it on my iPad with Chrome. Not as good as a PC, but usable and has a preview capability.