The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to trend the Coalition’s way, to the extent that it reaches two milestones this week: parity with Labor on two-party preferred, and an absolute majority on the seat projection, albeit by the barest of margins. Three new polls were added to the national figures, those being Galaxy, the regular weekly Essential Research, and the fortnightly Morgan (fortnightly in the sense of publication, although the poll is conducted on a weekly basis). Also out this week was the Newspoll quarterly aggregates, which have been factored into the state breakdowns, along with the regular state breakdowns from Morgan (published) and Essential (unpublished). The combined effect is to add seat each to the Coalition tally in New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia, while removing one in Victoria and Tasmania.
The quarterly Newspoll is a big deal for BludgerTrack, which is never better serviced for state data than it is immediately after being fed with three months’ worth of state-level Newspoll results. To this end, later today I will get around to publishing my own detailed quarterly state breakdowns for BludgerTrack, the previous instalment of which can be seen here.
BludgerTrack is still in the position of being slightly more favourable to the Coalition than any single published poll result, due to a variety of factors. Perhaps this could be best explained if I run through each of the pollsters:
Nielsen of course closed up shop a few months ago, which was significant in that BludgerTrack deemed it to be the most Coalition-friendly pollster, and the only one which adjusted for any substantial bias to that effect. Now that it’s gone, the model has a clear tendency to skew to the right of what a straight polling average would tell you.
Newspoll is rated as neutral by the model, but it hasn’t reported for a fortnight. When it did report, it gave Labor a 51-49 lead when the primary vote numbers looked a lot more like 50-50. It’s the primary votes that BludgerTrack goes off, so this was a 50-50 poll as far as the model was concerned. Clearly Labor got rounded up in the Newspoll result – it follows that they also got rounded down in BludgerTrack.
Galaxy is taken very seriously by BludgerTrack, and receives next to no bias adjustment at all. This week it gave Labor a lead of 51-49, although putting its rounded primary votes into the model produces a result of 50.6-49.4 going off 2013 preferences (as BludgerTrack does). If not for this poll, the Coalition would have moved into the lead.
ReachTEL’s last poll a fortnight ago had Labor leading 51-49, and BludgerTrack adjusts this pollster slightly in favour of the Coalition.
Morgan is reckoned to have the biggest bias in the game, that being in favour of Labor. Its result on respondent-allocated preferences this week was 51.5-48.5 in favour of Labor, but the more telling point so far as BludgerTrack is concerned is that it was the Coalition’s best result since February.
Essential is noted for being slow to respond to changes, and for this reason, BludgerTrack treats its bias in a unique way, by dynamically adjusting it according to how its deviates from the model over time. Since it’s stayed stuck with Labor on the cusp of leading 52-48 or 53-47, while the other pollsters have moved to the Coalition, a Labor bias adjustment is increasingly being factored into its results.
The other development in BludgerTrack this week is that Morgan published a set of phone poll numbers on leadership ratings, and they were relatively very rosy for Tony Abbott, who wasn’t too far off parity on net approval and had a pretty solid lead on preferred prime minister. This has a pretty sharp effect on the BludgerTrack leadership ratings, which aren’t exactly spoiled for data and are always pretty sensitive to the most recent result, even if the poll in question was from a rather small sample, as was the case here.
UPDATE: As promised, here are the detailed state-level breakdowns featuring primary vote numbers and charts tracking the progress of the primary and two-party votes in each state. Crikey subscribers may enjoy my analysis of these results in today’s email, assuming it gets published.
I also promised two weeks ago that I was going to start tracking betting odds in these mid-week BludgerTrack posts, then forgot about it last week. Now that I’ve remembered again, I can inform you that there has been movement to the Coalition over the part fortnight in Centrebet’s federal election odds, with the Coalition in from $1.50 to $1.45 and Labor out from $2.55 to $2.70. Centrebet’s price on Campbell Newman being re-elected in Queensland has also shortened from $1.36 to $1.28, with Labor out from $3.15 to $3.65. There has been a very slight move to Labor for the Victorian election, with Labor in from $1.23 to $1.22 and the Coalition out from $4.00 and $4.10 – which sounds a bit generous to Labor for mine. The Betfair market evidently thinks so, as it has the Coalition in from $4.10 to $3.40 and Labor out from $1.48 to $1.59.
Bemused
[It was indeed remarkable and revealed a new aspect of Fran.]
who quoted me]
[I recall Anatole France saying:
All changes, even the most longed for, have their melancholy; for what we leave behind us is a part of ourselves; we must die to one life before we can enter another.]
And then added
[So which other dead people does Fran hear?
What else do they tell her?]
Those whose words and deeds are documented sometimes caution, sometimes recommend and every now and again, inspire.
Edi Mahin
Here is report by the ABC
[South Australian independent MP Bob Such died earlier today, Premier Jay Weatherill has announced.
Dr Such, 70, was suffering from a brain tumour.
His wife Lyn, said she and some of Dr Such’s family were with him when he died at the Daw Park repatriation hospital earlier today.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-11/sa-mp-bob-such-dies/5807072
Thanks bemused, but briefly’s suggestion seems to have worked.
Edi_Mahin
Bob was one of the goog ones!
BK,
A good egg all round?
I certainly wouldn’t trust a square egg, GG.
Fran Barlow@903
Yes, he was right, but if you are not already using Chrome as your browser, I recommend trying it too.
Fran, I’m disappointed to learn that your connection to the dead has a mundane explanation. I was hoping for zombies or something.
It is difficult to see the political upside in Labor pledging not to introduce a carbon tax. If they go to the next election with any kind of carbon pricing mechanism, climate change deniers will brand it a tax. They should defend the carbon tax as a good policy which reduced carbon pollution by several million tonnes during its two years of operation at no cost to jobs and with a negligible impact on the cost of living. Carbon taxes and trading schemes are just different mechanisms for doing the same thing: internalizing what is currently an externalized cost of production. There’s no point in getting bogged down in the semantics about fixed price vs floating price, carbon tax vs tradable carbon credits.
Why must Labor take every opportunity to shoot itself in the foot, dishearten its supporters, and confuse the electorate? They don’t back themselves. They radiate weakness. They cower and capitulate. They give credence to the Coalition’s baseless criticisms of the carbon tax.
How will the public react to this latest contortion in Labor’s climate change policy? I think they will see it as weak and confusing. They will think the Coalition must have been right about the carbon tax being a bad thing – even Labor says so!
The carbon tax played almost no role in the 2013 election result. The election wasn’t a referendum on the carbon tax. Bill Shorten shouldn’t be echoing Tony Abbott’s bogus talking point that it was.
GG
Some of our kids went to school with Bob’s lot and an old neighbour has worked for him for 20 years.
Very sad to hear of Dr Such’s passing (I’ve made similar comments in the recent SA polling thread.) He was a very principled politician and a good man. A tribute to an era when the SA Liberal Party was a beacon of small L liberalism.
While I am glad he backed Labor, I wouldn’t have lost any respect for him had he backed the Libs because I know the decision would’ve been based on the best interests of his electorate and the state.
Nicholas
what on earth are you talking about?
Labor’s position on climate pricing now is exactly the same one they took to the last election – moreover, it is exactly the same one they’ve had since about 2004, given that there was always a transitional ‘carbon tax’ before an ETS was to be introduced and that transition period has already gone (interesting question – do business need time to prepare a second time?)
Shorten didn’t say anything new. He said exactly what he’s been saying since he became leader (and indeed, before that).
Just because the media act all surprised when Labor says it’s going to do something it’s said it was going to do for over a decade is no reason for anyone else to get sucked in.
Nicholas
what on earth are you talking about?
Labor’s position on climate pricing now is exactly the same one they took to the last election – moreover, it is exactly the same one they’ve had since about 2004, given that there was always a transitional ‘carbon tax’ before an ETS was to be introduced and that transition period has already gone (interesting question – do business need time to prepare a second time?)
Shorten didn’t say anything new. He said exactly what he’s been saying since he became leader (and indeed, before that).
Just because the media act all surprised when Labor says it’s going to do something it’s said it was going to do for over a decade is no reason for anyone else to get sucked in.
Sorry, the 8 o’clock bug didn’t wipe my post this time – it just replicated it…
[It has been announced that SA Independent MP for the seat of Fischer Bob Such died earlier.]
Hadn’t heard that. That’s very sad, though not entirely unexpected. And now – is there any sensitive way of segueing into this? – a very important by-election looms.
[ Carbon taxes and trading schemes are just different mechanisms for doing the same thing: internalizing what is currently an externalized cost of production. ]
Get with the times Nicholas, the Greens are now in bed with Abbott on extarnalised ‘direct action’, they even gave the Libs a licence for unlimited borrowing
[Hadn’t heard that. That’s very sad, though not entirely unexpected. And now – is there any sensitive way of segueing into this? – a very important by-election looms.]
Maybe demonstrating my somewhat insensitive nature, I’ve already started speculating on that.
I also think that, as he’s planning to resign from parliament soon, maybe Iain Evans should consider resigning now, so that the two by-elections can be held on the same day.
DisplayName@908
I still haven’t excluded all possibilities.
Perhaps Fran sits there with her Ouija board? 😉
[Maybe demonstrating my somewhat insensitive nature, I’ve already started speculating on that.]
Me too, it was the first thing I thought of.
confessions
Getting Martin Hamilton-Smith to defect from the Libs into the Labor ministry firewalled Bob Such’s seat.
Not all direct action is a waste of money. It’s bad to do direct action only, which is what the Coalition wants, because it will not reduce carbon emissions by anywhere near the amount required. But there’s nothing wrong with the Greens negotiating with the Coalition to devise targeted subsidies which could boost the development and uptake of renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency measures.
On the debt ceiling, I would have raised the ceiling by enough to last one year, and forced the government to come begging for more. I would have thrown their fiscal discipline rhetoric back in their faces and argued that the public is entitled to detailed annual statements from the government about why it needs to borrow more money.
But the Greens Senators are less combative than me. They stood up for the sound policy principle that the debt ceiling is not necessary. They are right about that.
Vale. Bob Such. He served his electorate and the people of South Australia well.
[ On the debt ceiling, I would have raised the ceiling by enough to last one year, and forced the government to come begging for more. I would have thrown their fiscal discipline rhetoric back in their faces and argued that the public is entitled to detailed annual statements from the government about why it needs to borrow more money. ]
Makes sense considering the way the Libs (and Greens) acted in opposition, but obviously Milne and the Greens leadership disagree with you now the incompetent joke Libs are in government. Expect ex Greens will be given plum governmment jobs next. (lol)
You could always write some Fran Barlow fanfic, bemused :P.
DisplayName@924
You think a new career beckons? 😮
I must give it some thought.
BK:
Oh forgot about MHS going indie. Still, if the Liberals do win the by-election, wonder if you guys’ll be hit with Election Now! demands from the usual quarters.
I imagine we will get a whole heap of “if, then” speculation suggesting that the government is unstable now. But it won’t go anywhere because the Libs and their supporters have demonstrated an inability to capitalise on anything.
I can’t even say with certainty that the Libs will win Fisher. If a visible independent puts their hand up and the Libs are too complacent about it (as they often are), it could well stay independent.
[briefly
Posted Saturday, October 11, 2014 at 6:17 pm | Permalink
883
Boerwar
This invokes the old (and possibly cliched) Arab saying about how the enemy of ones enemy can be a friend, even if they are your enemy too…
The situation is very complex.]
If everyone is someone’s enemy things can get a bit complicated.
Carey M:
I know it’s piling on the meaningless if this then that speculation, but if the Libs do regain Such’s seat, is there any likelihood of MHS being lured back to the flock? Or has that ship firmly sailed?
BB
Clark says he is ‘totally dissatisfied’ with what is happening. He also says he the plane was ‘under control until the end’. So, how does he know this?
Both big calls.
He might be right. We are probably lucky that he is not talking Diego Garcia. We would never hear the end of it.
Anyhoo, it is definitely time for Clark to put up or shut up. He has some explaining to do.
I do hope he is better at running his airline than he is in intuiting thought bubbles.
This announcement by Bill Shorten muddies the waters. It gives the public the impression that the carbon tax was a failed policy. The truth is that during the two years it was in effect it worked very well.
Why can’t he defend one of the most important achievements of the last Labor Government? The Coalition worked away from Work Choices because it was a dud policy and electoral poison. The carbon tax succeeded and it stopped being a source of anxiety for voters long before the election campaign of 2013.
Announcing a pledge not to introduce a carbon tax again concedes two of the Coalition’s false claims: that the carbon tax was bad for the economy, and that the 2013 election was a referendum on the carbon tax.
William
I take it that you mean that the Liberals will probably get the seat and that this means the end of the Labor Government in SA?
That ship’s definitely sailed.
MHS has power and influence in this arrangement. If he defected back he’d be trusted by neither side and intentionally sidelined.
Also, his departure from the Libs was very mutually acrimonious and personal. That bridge is well and truly burned.
Nicholas
sorry, but what has changed since a year ago? Labor went to the last election saying it was going to go straight to an ETS and get rid of the fixed price. It’s consistently said that since.
I’m thinking there is probably more than a grain of truth in reports that Greens party leadership has fallen out of favor with membership
[Announcing a pledge not to introduce a carbon tax again concedes two of the Coalition’s false claims: that the carbon tax was bad for the economy, and that the 2013 election was a referendum on the carbon tax.]
No, it says that there’s no need for one, given the intention is to move to another form of carbon pricing.
Saying that we don’t need to use a horse for transport anymore because it’s been replaced by a car isn’t an admission that using a horse for transport was bad, or mistaken. It just means something better has replaced it.
The ‘carbon tax’ was always an interim measure. If it hadn’t been repealed, it would not have been in place at the next election anyway, regardless of who was in government.
Not quite as exciting as that, BW. The numbers at the election were Labor 23, Liberal 22, independents two. Such’s illness has kept him away from parliament, and the other independent supports Labor on confidence and supply. Furthermore, one of the Liberals has essentially defected to the government by taking up a position in the ministry. So leaving aside the Labor Speaker, there have been 24 votes on the floor for the government and 21 against it. A Liberal win in the by-election would make it 24-22.
Thanks Carey.
Doesn’t really matter Jai and the fairness police will take care of any problems. shame about the cars and the subs though.
[909
Nicholas
Why must Labor take every opportunity to shoot itself in the foot, dishearten its supporters, and confuse the electorate? They don’t back themselves. They radiate weakness. They cower and capitulate. They give credence to the Coalition’s baseless criticisms of the carbon tax.]
Still dressing in green and blue, Nicky? Such a pretty looking frock, hemmed at the knee, modestly buttoned bodice, short sleeves are a nice touch for Spring, touching little bows stitched above the darts. Wearable in summer too. You need a hat, maybe a superfino. You know, woven, light, Panama. That awful Shorten boy paying you no attention? He’s a beast. Never mind. There’s always the Hunt chap. Action. Direct. Wouldn’t know his walrus from your fairy penguin, but brains aren’t everything. Nice sandals, too. Luv the nail polish.
William
Oh.
On another South Australian matter I note that the sub lobby has enlisted Australia’s astronaut to argue their case.
http://rt.com/news/195072-baghdad-airport-isis-manpads/
[Islamic State’s offensive on the Iraqi capital intensified as the jihadist fighters advanced as far as Abu Ghraib, a suburb only 8 miles away from Baghdad’s international airport.
The outer suburb of Abu Ghraib is also the site of the infamous prison the US military used to humiliate and torture Iraqi detainees.
There are reports by the Iraqi military that the militants are in possession of MANPAD anti-aircraft missiles. The short-range, shoulder-fired missiles can shoot down airplanes within a range of 15,000 feet.
The Iraqi military, aided by US military personnel, have so far failed in foiling the advance toward Baghdad of the Islamic State militia..]
So when Bill Shorten refers to Carbon Pricing, does he mean ETS? I thought this was Labor’s direction since the last election, and pretty much many of the major players in the global solution.
Raaraa
I think the options on the form of carbon pricing are still open, on the grounds that something better than an ETS might come along in the next two years, and it would be silly to have made an absolute commitment.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/prahran-candidates-battle-for-the-pink-vote-in-state-election-20141009-113obr.html
The battle for Prahran. One among many issues.
Apologies if already posted.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-says-labor-wants-to-tackle-carbon-pollution-but-rules-out-return-of-carbon-tax-20141011-114nmp.html
zoomster
To be fair, you’re right, election’s not for another 2 years, though a commitment to address some issues might help as we go along.
Call that a sword?
Our particular malady is not even a politics as theatre, however. Although Tony Abbott and the media are playing the terror card for all it’s worth and more, there are legitimate security issues buried somewhere beneath the witless hysteria, fear-mongering and click bait.
Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/call-that-a-sword-this-is-a-joke-20141009-113kgy.html#ixzz3FpiQT39l
Raaraa
as I’ve said a few times, there are dangers in locking in positions too early. Labor is commited to carbon pricing. If an ETS is the best option on the table, that’s what Labor will go with.
Also, from the article, I believe China will learn that it will be growing less and less reliant on coal as they go along.
Gary Brecher:
[One thing you have to say for the Islamic State (IS) militia: Whatever its failings as a military force (see my last article) it still has an amazing knack for generating scare stories in the Western press. Last time I tried to show why the hype about IS’s advances on its Western Front (the Syria/Turkish border zone) meant a lot less than the panic headlines suggested. Well, no sooner did the noise about that front die down than we had a new panic on IS’s Eastern Front, with stories headlined “IS One Mile from Baghdad.”
Most of these stories came from idiotic right-wing sites like the comically mis-named American Thinker, which was naïve enough to ask, “Is Baghdad about to Fall to ISIS?”
But there were plenty of mainstream fools joining the panic, as I saw when I was fool enough to watch some of the BBC’s Lyse Doucet’s report from Baghdad …
The truth here is much simpler. Yes, Islamic State forces are gathered on the Western edge of Baghdad. The non-news is…they’ve been there for nine long months. Islamic State captured Fallujah, which is 70 kilometers from the center of Baghdad, way back at the beginning of January 2014.
Since then, the only movement on the Baghdad front has been along the road from Fallujah to Baghdad, which has become a Sunni suburb, housing all the angry Sunni forced out of Baghdad proper.
So it’s ridiculous to pretend that movement along this road represents an advance for the Sunni Arabs whom IS represents in Iraq. Au con-friggin’-traire! The whole reason IS is stuck on the Western outskirts of Baghdad is that the city, which was once Sunni-majority, has been ethnically cleansed over the last decade—so that by now the only remaining Sunni neighborhoods are in the far West, on the road to Fallujah …
Islamic State isn’t looming over Baghdad so much as sulking outside it, in the final Sunni enclave — stalled out and dreaming of a return to the hegemony the Sunni held over the city ten years ago. And if you really think that Baghdad, which is now firmly in Shia hands, is like some damsel in distress, just waiting to be ravished by big, bad IS…well, you haven’t been following the record of the Shia militias which drove the Sunni out in the first place. Those Shia Iraqis may not be much when fighting in the open desert of Anbar Province—they certainly bugged out in a hurry last June, leaving all their expensive American equipment for IS to loot—but they are Hell in urban combat, as the US Army learned the hard way when it took on Moqtada’s Mahdi Army in Sadr City, the huge Shia slum in NE Baghdad.]
http://pando.com/2014/10/02/the-war-nerd-islamic-state-is-sulking-on-the-edge-of-baghdad/