Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor

Galaxy turns in an unsurprising set of results in its first poll in over two months, recording the same shifts since that time as everybody else.

The first federal poll from Galaxy since July is well in line with the trend, as Galaxy so often is, in having Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up three to 42% and Labor down one to 36%, with the Greens on 12% (up one) and Palmer United on 4% (down three). Further questions found 62% support for Australian involvement in air strikes against Islamic State, with 21% opposed, and 75% considering the threat of a terrorist attack on Australian soil to be “real”, versus 16% who thought otherwise.

UPDATE (6/10): Roy Morgan gives the Coalition its best result since February, its primary vote up 1.5% to 40% with Labor down 2.5% to 35%. The Greens are steady at 12%, and Palmer United are down half a point to 3.5%, their weakest result since January. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead narrows from 54.5-45.5 to 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 53.5-46.5 to 51.5-48.5 on preference flows from the previous election. The poll was conducted over the last two weekends by face-to-face and SMS, from a sample of 3151.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

984 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Move on Mod Lib.

    Stop banging on about boats and boatist policies and start to debate other issues.

    Let us not be derailed by this unicorn.

  2. Did I just hear the Top Gear host ask Ron Weazley whether he was “nursing a semi” when he kissed Hermione?

    YIKES! TV has changed over the years, hasn’t it?

  3. [852
    William Bowe
    Posted Monday, October 6, 2014 at 8:56 pm | PERMALINK
    ‘hutspa’?
    They had a 1-0 win over Southampton yesterday.]

    I think there was even a poster here who was fond of them “spur212” or something, he went by.

    But he lost the plot with Ruddism in 2012 or so, I recall.

  4. Josh Thomas – Comedian & Actor

    Cannot do comedy and cannot act. ABC scraping the bottom of the barrel with this guy. Time to bring back Playschool presenter and ex Chances star Rhys Muldoon.

  5. I did apologise and withdraw at one stage, ModLib, because you accepted you were wrong on an issue.

    Then, only a few days later, you made exactly the same statement that you’d accepted previously was incorrect, so I reinstated it.

    Tonight, of course, you’re just proving it all over again.

  6. [Did I just hear the Top Gear host ask Ron Weazley whether he was “nursing a semi” when he kissed Hermione?]

    WTF

    If you are into that sort of stuff, I suggest you take it to a Harry Potter “fan fiction for adults” site!

  7. I have absolutely no recollection of you apologising or withdrawing. Nor do I have any recollection of what you are talking about with the “same statement” stuff.

  8. [I think there was even a poster here who was fond of them “spur212″ or something, he went by.

    But he lost the plot with Ruddism in 2012 or so, I recall.]

    Ah, he’ll be back.

  9. [
    Josh Thomas – Comedian & Actor
    Cannot do comedy and cannot act. ABC scraping the bottom of the barrel with this guy. Time to bring back Playschool presenter and ex Chances star Rhys Muldoon.]

    A gratutious and personal critique out of left field.

    What’s your problem, darl?

  10. ManU will take a while to recover from Alex Ferguson’s retirement. It many take a couple of years or even a few but they will be back at the top again. The transition was never going to be easy.

  11. [Darren Laver
    …..A gratutious and personal critique out of left field.

    What’s your problem, darl?]

    Trying to fit in?

  12. Hmmmm … has the 8:00pm thing extended its hours of operation?

    I have had several posts swallowed up in the last couple of hours.

  13. [Hmmmm … has the 8:00pm thing extended its hours of operation?

    I have had several posts swallowed up in the last couple of hours.]

    I suggest you ask William about that.

  14. [
    Hmmmm … has the 8:00pm thing extended its hours of operation?
    I have had several posts swallowed up in the last couple of hours.]

    Probably for the best!

    ;-p

  15. [Having already faced one metre ballot papers at last year’s Senate election, Victorian voters look set to face the same ordeal in several regions at November’s state election.

    Last September the Victorian Senate ballot paper had 97 candidates spread across 40 columns on a one-metre ballot paper with reduced font size.

    Compared to this Senate whale, Victoria’s Legislative Council ballot papers have to date been tiddlers in comparison.]

    [The maximum ballot paper size is one-metre. If the existing font size is retained, up to 19 columns can be included on a one-metre ballot paper. If there are more than 19 columns/parties in any region, the font size will have to be reduced.

    The VEC at least has one advantage over the AEC in being allowed to double-deck the ballot paper across two rows if required. This would allow a larger font size to be maintained, but may disadvantage parties that are printed on the second row of the ballot paper.

    Giant ballot papers will substantially increases the cost of the election by increasing the weight of ballot papers to be moved around the state and increasing the cost of ballot boxes and storage units.]
    http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2014/10/victorian-voters-to-face-giant-ballot-papers-at-state-election.html

    I am all for candidate diversity and enabling as many candidates to stand for election as possible. But things are getting out of hand lately, esp in asking voters to deal with these burgeoning ballot papers.

  16. Bemused’s problem is that he thinks he runs the blog, decides who is is not legitimate and generally determines policy and content.

    In Bemused’s eyes, William is merely the janitor, taking out the trash and generally keeping things tidy while Bemused insults whoever he likes, drives off anyone he cares to and decides who is to be the next object of his oh-so-intellectual barbs.

    If anyone doesn’t like it, then it’s always *their* problem.

  17. [all for candidate diversity and enabling as many candidates to stand for election as possible. But things are getting out of hand lately, esp in asking voters to deal with these burgeoning ballot papers.]

    Just ridiculous!

    I pity the poor souls who will have to vote in this election!

  18. And yet despite:

    […the tougher test for party registration in Victoria means the number of registered party will be less than half the number that contested last year’s Senate election.]

    Victorians will STILL have supersized ballot papers for the upper house!

  19. Bushfire Bill@872

    Bemused’s problem is that he thinks he runs the blog, decides who is is not legitimate and generally determines policy and content.

    In Bemused’s eyes, William is merely the janitor, taking out the trash and generally keeping things tidy while Bemused insults whoever he likes, drives off anyone he cares to and decides who is to be the next object of his oh-so-intellectual barbs.

    If anyone doesn’t like it, then it’s always *their* problem.

    Sheer projection BB.

    I thought my posts were fairly mundane.

  20. Darren Laver@873

    all for candidate diversity and enabling as many candidates to stand for election as possible. But things are getting out of hand lately, esp in asking voters to deal with these burgeoning ballot papers.


    Just ridiculous!

    I pity the poor souls who will have to vote in this election!

    Even worse for those doing the counting. 🙁

  21. [
    In Bemused’s eyes, William is merely the janitor, taking out the trash and generally keeping things tidy while Bemused insults whoever he likes]

    William has been called many things, but “janitor” surely takes the cake!

    Bemused — get over yourself! William puts a lot of effort into this site and we are here at his indulgence.

  22. Darren L:

    And apparently it could’ve been even worse if not for the VEC’s tighter rules around what constitutes party membership and how this is tested.

  23. DisplayName@875

    Someone is collecting your metadata, bemused. It’s ending up in some data warehouse instead of on PB.

    I hope you are right.
    If so, they will be bored silly by just how mundane it all is. 😀

  24. [I thought my posts were fairly mundane.]

    Your problem in a nutshell.

    I may write long, boring posts, waxing lyrical about nothing much, but I don’t start vendettas, go out of my way to insult people and take delight in upsetting people so much that they leave the community in disgust.

    (With a couple of exceptions)

  25. Darren Laver@878

    In Bemused’s eyes, William is merely the janitor, taking out the trash and generally keeping things tidy while Bemused insults whoever he likes


    William has been called many things, but “janitor” surely takes the cake!

    Bemused — get over yourself! William puts a lot of effort into this site and we are here at his indulgence.

    Neither you nor BB have any idea what I attempted to post.

    Compared to much of what appears here, it was quite mundane.

  26. While it’s always possible there’s some hidden subtext going on between bemused and William, I suspect William is just telling bemused “it’s on your end, check the cat hasn’t nibbled your modem”.

  27. If it has, I recommend a bucket under the hole to collect all the data that is leaking out. With a proper sieve you might be able to sort it all out and push it back into the cable ;).

  28. [Well they are not ManUnited then. They have forgotten how to win :(]

    Man U will finish top 4 and win the League next year.

    They’ve got the cattle now and are starting to gel.

    Di Maria is the best player in the EPL.

  29. [BTW BB, when you wrote this, I think it may have been because you misidentified me as the author of this. That’s been mildly niggling at me.]

    It was in response to your #611, not K’s #612.

    Don’t be niggled. I don’t get too upset at your barbs William. Most of them are extremely witty (in that dry, “William” way) and, if I laugh at them when you dish them out to other posters, I can’t reallt complain more than mildly when I’m the target of the projectile.

  30. [Compared to much of what appears here, it was quite mundane.]

    “Mundane”? I’ll buy that. So you had your posts stomped upon for mundanity?

    There’s a plan.

  31. Bushfire Bill@893

    Compared to much of what appears here, it was quite mundane.


    “Mundane”? I’ll buy that. So you had your posts stomped upon for mundanity?

    There’s a plan.

    My advantage over you is that I can be ‘mundane’ in far fewer words.

  32. Dio:

    See Essendon have decided to stay sat on the fence by keeping Hird on as coach. Can’t for the life of me understand why the members haven’t arked up.

  33. Media Watch was a bit chilling tonight on the new terror laws. All the journos shitting themselves about being locked up. Most of them should have thought about that before throwing their lot in with Abbott at the last election.

  34. Oh FFS! Why is it that whenever bemused comments here the tone of the blog deteriorates to an open slanging match and boring as f*ck nuff nuff commentary about other commenters?

    A hint: the guy’s a dick. Everyone knows this. Best way to deal with people like that is to give their shit dead air.

  35. [Oh FFS! Why is it that whenever bemused comments here the tone of the blog deteriorates to an open slanging match and boring as f*ck nuff nuff commentary about other commenters?
    A hint: the guy’s a dick. Everyone knows this. Best way to deal with people like that is to give their shit dead air.]

    True enough! LoL

  36. confessions@898

    Oh FFS! Why is it that whenever bemused comments here the tone of the blog deteriorates to an open slanging match and boring as f*ck nuff nuff commentary about other commenters?

    A hint: the guy’s a dick. Everyone knows this. Best way to deal with people like that is to give their shit dead air.

    What a little charmer you are.

    But I am comforted by you being wrong as usual.

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